By DAVID McHUGH

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to allow India to buy Russian oil for 30 days underscores a boost for Moscow’s fortunes against the backdrop of the Iran war as Russia’s oil exports help Kremlin pay for its own war on Ukraine.

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The Treasury Department this week said India can keep buying crude oil and petroleum products from Russia for a month, until April 4.

That measure is aimed at helping ease upward pressure on oil prices that affect gasoline costs for U.S. consumers. But it also underlines how the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is tightening the markets for oil and gas — including Russia’s crude.

A complex mix of oil, tariffs — and 2 wars

China and India became Russia’s biggest customers for oil after Moscow’s full-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a boycott by the European Union, formerly the biggest importer from Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump had slapped 25% tariffs on India for continuing to purchase Russian oil. Indian oil imports from Russia diminished after Trump dropped the tariff Feb. 6 in return for what he said was a promise to stop buying Russian oil.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude rose to $89 per barrel, up from just under $73 a week ago, on the eve of the new war in the Middle East. Russia’s Urals blend export hit $70, up from below $40 as recently as December.

The widening war in Iran and the risk of Iranian drone or missile attacks has shut down almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage out of Persian Gulf and the conduit for 20% of the world economy’s oil needs.

Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Now nothing is going through.

Soaring oil prices after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint have meant at least a temporary reversal of fortune for Russia’s fossil fuel revenues.

That revenue had dwindled due to previously weak global prices and tightening Western sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used to evade a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven democracies, as well as sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

A welcome waiver

In granting a month’s reprieve to India, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day period would “not provide significant financial benefit” to the Russian government as it only applied to Russian oil stranded on tankers after no customer could be found.

Analysts estimated that could be some 125 million barrels of crude.

“This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Bessent said on X.

Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent. However, Russian crude is now well above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry’s budget plan for 2026.

Oil and gas tax revenues can amount to 20% to 30% of the Russian federal budget. Tax is based on the price of oil once Russian producers have covered their costs of around $15 per barrel, so a fall in the price can substantially reduce revenue to the government.

Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar — suspended after an Iranian drone strike on Qatar’s largest LNG plant early on in the Iran war — will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes, including those from Russia.

Prices for future delivery of natural gas have soared in Europe, raising questions about the EU’s plans to halt its remaining imports of Russian gas by 2027.

An unpredictable future

Much depends on how long the war with Iran lasts. In the first week, the effects of the conflict that began with the United States and Israel’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran are widening and now encompass more than a dozen countries.

Oil market analysts say that if it ends within a week or two, oil prices could quickly fall to prewar levels around $65 per barrel and Russia would see little benefit.

However, a longer conflict — one that leaves long-term damage to oil fields, pipelines and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, and sends oil prices over $100 per barrel — could deliver a lasting windfall to Russia.

Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.

Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. As oil and gas revenues to the state budget fell, President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.

Asked about the waiver, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted the increased demand on Russian oil amid the Mideast war and said that “India and China are guided by their national interests, and we do the same.”

“We continue our cooperation, including the energy field and energy trade, with India and China,” Peskov said.

“We note a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the Iran war,” he added. “Russia has been a reliable supplier of oil and gas. It can guarantee all contracted supplies.”

By SOPHIA TAREEN

CHICAGO (AP) — Political printing presses at their busiest in decades. Debate organizers limiting participation due to so many candidates. Constant political ads on television and social media.

The signs that Illinois is having one of its most frenzied primary elections in years are everywhere.

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Congress is on track to see record turnover this year as lawmakers forgo reelection, and in few places is that spate of retirements felt as deeply as in Illinois. Fueled by the retirements of senior members of Congress, six House and Senate seats in the reliably Democratic state are open. That’s offered a rare chance for the party to draw a new crop of candidates — all told, nearly 60 hopefuls are vying for the six seats — and for the winners to help shape the next Democratic caucus. It also has left voters with mounds of homework ahead of the March 17 primary.

“Having all these names and faces thrown at you and trying to remember which one is which, it’s disorientating,” voter James Beatley said.

He’s been represented his entire 21 years by the same Chicago-area congressman, retiring Rep. Danny Davis. Now Beatley has 13 Democrats to choose from. It’s already led to spirited discussions about political fundraising and term limits among other Democrats at the University of Illinois Chicago, a hub of political activity in the nation’s third-largest city where Beatley is a student.

He remains undecided.

Illinois’ big share of House retirements

Illinois represents roughly one-quarter, or five of 21, of all House Democratic retirements and 10% of all House retirements in the country, according to an Associated Press analysis. By one expert’s measure, it’s Illinois’ largest number of open House seats going back at least 70 years.

Currently, five of Illinois’ 17 congressional seats, or approximately 29%, are open. According to University of Illinois political scientist Brian Gaines, the percentage was roughly that high twice in the 1940s, with seven out of Illinois’ then-26 seats open.

Retiring incumbents say it’s time to remake the party in an increasingly divided political environment, despite losing experience.

“Illinois is undergoing tremendous change, and you can kind of feel it,” said the 84-year-old Davis, who was first elected in 1996. “It opens up opportunities for a new generation of leadership.”

Sifting through candidates

The dozens of candidates in the five open Chicago-area House races include 20-something newcomers, lawyers and two former members angling for a comeback. They’ve clashed over funding tied to Israel and disapproval of aggressive immigration enforcement that rocked cities including Chicago.

The most candidates are in the district of Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who’s retiring after 14 terms. Fifteen Democrats include Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, digital creator Kat Abughazaleh and state lawmakers.

Maria Lordots, who’s studying at UIC to be a teacher, will vote in Schakowsky’s district, which includes parts of Chicago’s North Side and suburbs. The 20-year-old has scoured candidate websites but been frustrated by social media.

“You see a few clips, and that sort of influences you to or away from a candidate,” she said. She’s supporting Abughazaleh, because she’s unhappy with establishment Democrats.

Roberto Gomez-Valadez, a 21-year-old UIC student pursuing business, feels her pain.

He’s from a suburb south of Chicago where Rep. Robin Kelly is seeking retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat. There are 10 Democratic candidates in Kelly’s district including state lawmakers and former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., son of the late civil rights leader.

“It’s overwhelming,” said Gomez-Valadez, who plans to vote for state Sen. Robert Peters because he was generous with his time when they met in person. “When there’s so many candidates, overlapping opinions, it’s so much harder to stand out.”

Also running for the Senate is Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, leaving eight Democrats in the primary for his congressional seat, including former Rep. Melissa Bean. There’s another seat left open by Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia’s departure, though the Democratic primary is uncontested after Garcia’s political maneuvering to get his chief of staff on the ballot.

Too many debates to count

Even veterans of the political season are having trouble tracking debates.

The League of Women Voters has sponsored candidate forums for about a century. Its Illinois organizers say this year there are more than double the number of debates than usual.

“It’s usually our schtick, and it’s a thing this time around,” said Roberta Borrino from the League of Women Voters of Illinois.

So many candidates has also meant space and time limitations. Some forums are spread over two days. One group had candidates speak in batches, with one cohort waiting in a separate room while others debated.

At a recent UIC debate for Davis’ district, there was one microphone per three candidates. Candidates got 45 seconds to answer and one rebuttal over two hours.

“You have to get really good at answering questions in barely no time,” said candidate Anabel Mendoza, a 28-year-old immigrant rights organizer. “You get really good at getting to the point.”

Printing presses are buzzing

Some households are seeing mailboxes full of congressional political ads for the first time.

Richard Lewandowski runs a family-owned printing press in Chicago that’s been in business for 50 years. To keep up with the demand for campaign mailers, employees are working seven days a week for up to 12 hours daily.

“You only see a midterm like this once every 20 years,” Lewandowski said.

Adding to the intensity are contested races for the state Legislature and state constitutional officers. Billionaire Gov. JB Pritzker, who’s seeking a third term, has backed his Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton for the Senate.

Elections officials hope for a big turnout

With most Democratic primary winners expected to win outright in November, the stakes are high.

Election officials say they see encouraging signs of a turnaround after 2024 saw the lowest turnout in more than 50 years. Statewide primary turnout two years ago was 19%, according to the Illinois Board of Elections.

In Chicago, more than 43,000 early ballots have been cast by mail and in person with two weeks until the primary. The number is double the roughly 20,000 in the 2022 midterm primary and roughly quadruple the 10,000 in 2018 with the same number of days until the election, according to the Chicago Board of Elections.

“When districts are competitive it does bring additional people to the polls,” board spokesman Max Bever said.

Associated Press reporter Maya Sweedler contributed from Washington.

By STELLA MARTANY

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) — Officials with one of the armed Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq told The Associated Press that they are not planning an imminent cross-border attack on Iran but would join a ground invasion if the U.S. were to launch one.

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The comments appeared to be aimed at reassuring Iraqi Kurdish officials, who have said they do not want attacks to be launched against Iran from their territory, fearing that they will be further dragged into the war in the Middle East sparked by the U.S. and Israel’s strikes on Iran.

In the event of a U.S. ground operation, “then we would enter alongside the coalition forces,” said Khalil Nadiri, an official with the Kurdistan Freedom Party PAK, in an interview with the AP Thursday. But he said, “The Kurds must not place themselves as the spearhead of the attack.”

He added that his group also has armed members already present inside of Iran and that they would not necessarily require cross-border support if they were to stage an uprising.

Nadiri said the Kurdish groups have been in contact with the U.S. and Israel but denied having received any material aid from them.

The comments came after Kurdish officials said earlier this week that the Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the U.S. had asked Iraqi Kurds to support them

A member of the Kurdistan Freedom Party PAK, stand guard in Irbil, Iraq, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Rashid Yahya)

Rebaz Sharifi, a military commander with the PAK, said it would be “a very positive development” if the U.S. and its allies were to arm the Kurdish groups, but also denied that they have received any such support so far.

Sharifi said he expects that at some point, U.S. President Donald Trump “might want the peshmerga forces of Eastern Kurdistan to participate in the conflict during a ground invasion” and “if it reaches that point, we, for our part, would be pleased with it.”

However, the two officials sought to dispel the fears of Iraqi Kurdish officials that Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region would be used as a launching pad.

Peshawa Hawramani, spokesperson for the Kurdistan Regional Government, said in a statement earlier this week that “allegations claiming that we are part of a plan to arm and send Kurdish opposition parties into Iranian territory are completely unfounded” and that the Iraqi Kurdish parties do not want to “expand the war and tensions in the region.”

Already Iran and allied Iraqi militias have launched dozens of missiles and drone attacks into northern Iraq, targeting the U.S. bases and consulate in Irbil as well as bases of the Iranian Kurdish dissident groups.

Members of the Kurdistan Freedom Party PAK stand guard in Irbil, Iraq, Thursday, March 5, 2026. (AP Photo/Rashid Yahya)

Sharifi said PAK’s bases have been attacked twice with ballistic missiles and four times with drones since the start of the war, killing one of their fighters and wounding three others.

Nadiri said that “since the (Iraqi) Kurdistan region has adopted a policy of not becoming a part of this conflict and because we do not want to disrupt the stability and security here and we respect the laws of this region, consequently, the environment has not yet been established for us to move our forces back into Eastern Kurdistan.”

He was using the term used by Kurdish groups to refer to the Kurdish region of Iran.

The potential military involvement of the Kurds has raised tensions with other Iranian opposition groups – notably the faction led by the former shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, who has accused the Kurds of being separatists aiming to carve up Iran.

Sharifi said that his group’s “ultimate goal is the statehood of the Kurds in all four regions and the reunification of Kurdistan,” referring to the Kurdish areas that are currently split among Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.

Nadiri said that a confederal system could be a “viable solution” that would allow the Kurdish area to remain part of Iran while maintaining its “own sovereignty, identity, and unique characteristics.”

By MAE ANDERSON, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — Government officials are getting closer to ironing out a refund process for the hundreds of thousands of companies that paid tariffs now deemed illegal.

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In a filing with the Court of International Trade on Friday, Brandon Lord, executive director of U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s trade policy and programs directorate, said the CBP is working on a new system that will simplify the process. He said it should be ready in 45 days and require “minimal submission from importers.”

The filing comes after a judge on Wednesday ordered the government to start paying back all importers the illegal tariffs they paid — with interest. Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade wrote that “all importers of record’’ were “entitled to benefit’’ from the Supreme Court ruling that struck down sweeping double-digit import taxes President Donald Trump imposed last year under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Eaton would have to approve the process before it proceeds.

In the filing, Lord said as of March 4, over 330,000 importers have made a total of over 53 million entries with CBP and paid about $166 billion in tariffs that now have to be refunded.

Lord estimated that under the current system, refunds would take more than 4.4 million man hours to complete, and it isn’t feasible to divert all employees to the refund process full time, because “CBP’s other functions and responsibilities would be severely disrupted and the agency would not be able to continue to adequately perform its mission, including its revenue protection mandate and its vital national security functions.”

But he said the agency is confident they can develop and implement a new process that will streamline and consolidate refunds and interest payments. The system should be ready in 45 days, he said.

“This new process will require minimal submission from importers,” he wrote. “It will also minimize errors by ensuring accurate IEEPA refund calculations through system validations and allowing for a review period for CBP to resolve any discrepancies with the importer and to confirm no other outstanding enforcement issues or no revenue is owed.”

Lord also noted that as of Feb. 6 the CBP only issues refunds electronically, but most importers haven’t completed signing up for the electronic system. Of the 330,566 importers who paid tariffs, only 21,423 have completed the setup process to receive their refunds electronically.

“Until importers complete the process to receive refunds electronically, the refunds will be rejected,” he said.