En plena ola de calor, neoyorquinos que cumplan requisitos pueden solicitar subvención estatal para aire acondicionado… por ahora

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El Home Energy Assistance Program (Programa de Asistencia Energética a los Hogares o HEAP por sus siglas en inglés) ha ayudado a decenas de miles de neoyorquinos con bajos ingresos a combatir el calor. Sin embargo, expertos y defensores afirman que el programa podría dar y critican su limitado alcance.

NYC Mayor’s Public Engagement Unit

Empleados municipales de la Public Engagement Unit (Unidad de Participación Pública) de la alcaldía repartiendo volantes sobre el beneficio de asistencia para el programa HEAP en el sur del Bronx el 31 de mayo de 2024.

Este artículo se publicó originalmente en inglés el 18 de junio. Traducido por Daniel Parra. Read the English version here.

Nueva York registró el año pasado una de las temperaturas más altas jamás registradas, pero se prevé otro verano al rojo vivo para 2024: la primera ola de calor de la temporada llegó la semana pasada, según advirtieron las autoridades.

Y las ayudas para enfriar los hogares del Home Energy Assistance Program (Programa de Asistencia Energética a los Hogares o HEAP por sus siglas en inglés) ha sido clave para ayudar a decenas de miles de neoyorquinos a combatir el calor. La iniciativa, financiada con fondos federales y gestionada por la Oficina de Asistencia Temporal y Asistencia para Incapacitados (OTDA por sus siglas en inglés) del estado de Nueva York, ayuda a las personas con bajos ingresos a comprar e instalar un ventilador o un aire acondicionado por un coste de hasta $1.000 dólares.

Sin embargo, los expertos y los defensores dicen que el programa podría hacer más. Han criticado el alcance limitado del programa —los fondos se han agotado a mediados o finales de julio en los dos últimos veranos— y no concede ayudas complementarias a las facturas de servicios públicos. Además dicen que puede estar teniendo dificultades para atender las necesidades cada vez más urgentes de algunos de los más vulnerables, como las personas mayores.

Los residentes de la ciudad de Nueva York pueden ver si califican para el beneficio de asistencia de enfriamiento de HEAP aquí

Una serie de factores externos están poniendo a los adultos mayores en mayor riesgo de sufrir el inminente clima caliente, incluyendo una mayor tasa de pobreza y el aumento de las facturas de servicios públicos residenciales, según fuentes que hablaron con City Limits. En toda la ciudad de Nueva York, 68 personas murieron por estrés térmico entre 2012 y 2021, y los residentes mayores de 60 años enfrentan la tasa de mortalidad más alta.

“Los adultos mayores son el grupo demográfico más afectado por el cambio climático”, dijo Kevin J. Kiprovski, director de políticas públicas de LiveOnNY. “A nivel internacional, durante una emergencia por calor, el 90 por ciento de las personas que mueren tienen más de 65 años”.

Según OTDA, se calcula que la ayuda para comprar aire acondicionado de HEAP ha llegado a casi 67.000 hogares en los últimos cinco años. El presupuesto de este año es de unos $22 millones de dólares, frente a los $17 millones del verano pasado, cuando se beneficiaron 21.000 hogares antes de que se agotara el fondo el 14 de julio.

El programa HEAP aceptará solicitudes para este año hasta el viernes 30 de agosto, o hasta que se agoten los fondos. Los neoyorquinos deben cumplir ciertos criterios, como límites de ingresos —no ganar más de $3.035 dólares al mes por persona, a menos que reciba otras prestaciones públicas— y tener en su hogar un miembro menor de 6 años, mayor de 60 o con una enfermedad agravada por el calor, entre otros requisitos

Kim Lerner, directora del programa de divulgación de prestaciones de LiveOnNY, ha ayudado a cientos de personas mayores a solicitar ayudas para refrescarse.

“Hice una visita a domicilio a una mujer que padecía cáncer de mama y, cuando entré en su apartamento, no podía creer lo mal ventilado y caluroso que estaba”, recuerda Lerner. “No sé cómo lo soportaba. Y la única forma que tenía de conseguir un aire acondicionado era a través de HEAP”.

Lerner elogió el programa por sus mejoras a lo largo de los años, como la supresión del requisito de presentar documentación médica, que resultaba tedioso y a menudo disuadía a los solicitantes. Sin embargo, aunque HEAP ofrece ayudas para la factura de los servicios públicos de calefacción durante los fríos meses de invierno, no lo hace para el verano.

Lerner dijo que muchos de los que recibieron aires acondicionados a través del programa expresaron su temor a que se dispararan las facturas de los servicios públicos, y dijo que subvencionar el coste sería una gran ayuda para ellos.

La preocupación de sus clientes no es infundada: las facturas de los servicios públicos residenciales están aumentando debido al incremento de las temperaturas estivales y a la prevalencia de episodios de calor extremo en los últimos años. Según un informe de la Asociación Nacional de Directores de Asistencia Energética y el Centro para la Energía, la Pobreza y el Clima, mientras que en 2014 mantenerse fresco en verano costaba $476 dólares, en 2024 las previsiones se sitúan en torno a los $719 dólares. 

Y los bolsillos de algunas de las personas mayores no están a la altura de esos costes. Beth Finkel, directora estatal de AARP Nueva York, dijo que la tasa de pobreza entre las personas mayores de 65 años en el estado de Nueva York subió más del 35 por ciento en el último censo.

Jeanmarie Evelly

La ayuda estatal para aire acondicionado ofrece a los neoyorquinos que reúnan los requisitos necesarios hasta $1.000 para la compra e instalación de un aire acondicionado.

“Pagar un aire acondicionado o un ventilador y su instalación puede secar el presupuesto familiar de alguien que vive en el umbral de la pobreza o incluso un poco por encima”, explica Finkel a City Limits.

“El gobierno tiene que buscar todas las vías posibles para ayudar a la gente”, añadió Finkel, cuando se le preguntó por las limitaciones del presupuesto del programa de ayuda para comprar aire acondicionado. “Es una medida de salud preventiva asegurarse de que la gente tenga un sistema de enfriamiento”.

Los datos de la OTDA muestran que, en los últimos cinco años, la ayuda para comprar aire acondicionado supuso algo menos del dos por ciento del presupuesto del HEAP. Durante los meses más fríos del año se destina mucho más dinero a la ayuda para calefacción, aproximadamente el 75 por ciento del presupuesto total. 

La disparidad parece un planteamiento contraintuitivo, dado que hay mayores tasas de mortalidad por calor en comparación con cualquier otra causa relacionada con el clima.

“La financiación de HEAP se determina en el presupuesto federal y se distribuye a los estados a través de una fórmula”, dijo un portavoz de la OTDA a City Limits en un comunicado. “Si bien el gobierno federal no obliga a los estados a operar un programa de refrescamiento, el estado de Nueva York es uno de los varios estados que asignan anualmente una parte de sus fondos para este fin, lo que Nueva York ha hecho durante muchos años”.

Este año se ha ampliado el componente de prestaciones de emergencia de HEAP hasta finales de agosto, o hasta que se agoten los fondos, ha señalado el portavoz. Los hogares que se enfrentan a facturas de electricidad más elevadas debido al uso de aire acondicionado y otros equipos de enfriamiento, y que han recibido un aviso de terminación de su compañía de servicios públicos, pueden solicitar la ayuda de emergencia para evitar un corte o para mantener el servicio durante al menos un mes más. 

“A medida que se agrava el cambio climático vemos sin duda que el calor, y ni siquiera el calor extremo, incluso a partir de los 82 grados Fahrenheit, es cuando empezamos a ver un repunte de las muertes relacionadas con el calor entre los neoyorquinos”, dijo Victoria Sanders, directora del programa de clima y salud de NYC Environmental Justice Alliance. “Así que tenemos que ajustar nuestras prioridades a medida que cambien las realidades de nuestro mundo”.

Como resultado de la financiación limitada, HEAP anunció el cierre de las solicitudes de asistencia a mediados del verano de 2023, el 14 de julio. Lo mismo podría ocurrir este año, incluso con los recortes presupuestarios propuestos por la ciudad a los centros para personas mayores en el horizonte, muchos de los cuales se duplican como centros de enfriamiento para aquellos que lo necesitan. 

Sanders figura entre los autores de un nuevo informe de Environmental Justice Alliance en el que se esbozan recomendaciones políticas sobre las disparidades en la calidad del aire y la vulnerabilidad al calor de las comunidades de color con bajos ingresos y está de acuerdo en que la ampliación del programa de ayuda sería una importante solución a corto plazo a los efectos adversos del cambio climático.

“Una gran parte de las personas que mueren de calor lo hacen en sus propias casas, porque no pueden refrescarse”, dijo. “Así que es importante que lo tengamos para poder proteger a los residentes vulnerables de la ciudad. Y mientras tanto, vamos a seguir presionando al gobierno para que haga un mejor trabajo en la lucha contra el cambio climático a nivel sistémico.”

Para ponerse en contacto con la reportera de esta noticia, escriba a Anastasia@citylimits.org. Para ponerse en contacto con la editora, escriba a Jeanmarie@citylimits.org

Supreme Court dismisses Republican suit claiming Biden officials censored social media

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David G. Savage | Los Angeles Times (TNS)

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Wednesday cast aside claims that the Biden administration has been censoring conservatives by pressing social media sites to take down dangerous misinformation.

In a 6-3 decision, the justices threw out a lawsuit from state attorneys in Louisiana and Missouri, and said they had no standing to bring such claims.

Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr. and Neil M. Gorsuch dissented.

The ruling throws out a broad court order issued last year by a federal judge in Louisiana and upheld by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals that threatened hundreds of Biden administration officials with a contempt citation if they “significantly encouraged” a platform to remove some content.

Social media sites did not sue or complain their rights were violated.

Instead, Republican state attorneys in Missouri and Louisiana sued alleging the right to free speech in this country was being violated by the Biden administration’s “sprawling federal censorship enterprise.” They pointed to actions by the White House as well as the FBI, the Office of the Surgeon General and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In October, in response to an appeal from Solicitor Gen. Elizabeth Prelogar, the justices had put the Louisiana judge’s order on hold over dissents by Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch. “Government censorship of private speech is antithetical to our democratic form of government,” Alito wrote at the time.

But the justices agreed to hear arguments and rule on the 1st Amendment issue raised in the case of Murthy vs. Missouri.

This term, the court has heard three major cases on social media and the 1st Amendment, all of them driven by complaints from conservatives that their speech is being censored.

The other two cases arose when Florida and Texas adopted laws that would impose fines or money damages on major social media platforms if they removed postings or content from conservatives.

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The case decided Wednesday began with a complaint that the social media platforms had blocked or downgraded posts on topics such as “the COVID–19 lab leak theory, pandemic lockdowns, vaccine side effects, election fraud, and the Hunter Biden laptop story.”

The state attorneys took their complaint to U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, a Trump appointee in Monroe, La. He handed down an unusually far-reaching order that prohibited federal officials and agencies from “urging or encouraging” the removal of “protected speech” from social media. He described the administration’s conduct as “arguably … the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history.”

The administration appealed to the 5th Circuit Court in New Orleans, but lost. A three-judge panel said the administration “officials have engaged in a broad pressure campaign designed to coerce social-media companies into suppressing speakers, viewpoints, and content disfavored by the government. The harms that radiate from such conduct extend far …. It impacts every social-media user.”

©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Biden and Trump are set to debate. Here’s what their past performances looked like

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By SEUNG MIN KIM (Associated Press)

WASHINGTON (AP) — What people remember from Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s first debate four years ago are likely the interruptions, the shouting and the “will you shut up, man?”

Then-President Trump arrived at that first matchup in Cleveland seemingly determined to steamroll Biden at every turn, leaving the Democratic candidate exasperated and moderator Chris Wallace scrambling to regain control.

Now, in 2024, many of the rules insisted on this time by Biden’s team — and agreed to by the Trump campaign — are designed to minimize the potential of a chaotic rerun. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted, except when it’s his turn to speak. There will be no studio audience to chime in with hoots and jeers.

The second and final presidential debate of 2020, held in Nashville, Tennessee, was a far more subdued event than the first, aided by a mute button and participants who were perhaps chastened by terrible reviews from the first matchup, particularly for Trump.

But if the Biden-Trump debate this Thursday in Atlanta spirals into pandemonium, consider that past was prologue.

A look back at that first Biden-Trump faceoff on Sept. 29, 2020:

The debate begins to devolve

It started out calmly enough, with a brief exchange about the Supreme Court vacancy that had opened up days before with the sudden death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. But the conversation turned contentious as the men tangled over health care and Trump’s handling of COVID-19.

The sparring over the pandemic was tense enough — with Biden telling Wallace at one point, “You’re not going to be able to shut him up.” Then Biden pivoted back to the court and abortion rights, triggering yet another outburst from Trump that continued to irritate the Democrat (and likely Wallace, and perhaps the viewing public).

“The point is that the president also is opposed to Roe v. Wade,” Biden said of Trump. “That’s on the ballot as well and the court, in the court, and so that’s also at stake right now. And so the election is all —”

“You don’t know what’s on the ballot. Why is it on the ballot?” Trump interrupted. “Why is it on the ballot? It’s not on the ballot.”

Trump would continue to interject until Biden showed his first real sign of irritation with his opponent and said: “Donald, would you just be quiet for a minute?”

But Trump didn’t relent, refusing to let Wallace question him about his Obamacare replacement plan without interruptions and taunting Biden that his primary election victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was “not by much” and that he “just lost the left” when he distanced himself from Sanders’ vision for health care.

“Folks,” Biden finally said, conveying his irritation to the audience, “do you have any idea what this clown’s doing?”

Biden: “Will you shut up, man?”

One clip replayed at length from the chaos in Cleveland was Biden finally snapping at Trump: “Will you shut up, man?”

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It came during a discussion over progressive proposals to overhaul Senate procedural rules or the Supreme Court itself — topics that have been tricky for an institutionalist such as Biden. The Democrat was, as he openly admitted, refusing to answer the question.

So Trump took matters into his own hands.

“Are you going to pack the court? Are you going to pack the court?” Trump demanded as Biden tried to make a case directly to the audience. Trump muttered that Biden didn’t want to answer the question.

“Why wouldn’t you answer that question? You want to put a lot of new Supreme Court justices. Radical left,” Trump concluded.

That’s when Biden — again — lost patience. “Will you shut up, man?”

But Trump — again — wouldn’t relent, forcing Wallace to cut the segment short and move on to a different topic. Biden lamented how unproductive the discussion was.

Trump insults Biden’s intelligence

The Republican also didn’t hesitate to get personal, from attacking Biden’s sole living son, Hunter, to mocking the Democrat’s academic credentials.

It seemed like Trump had been waiting for Biden to use any derivation of the word “smart” to go after his intelligence. So when Biden warned that more Americans would die from COVID-19 unless the president got smarter in his handling of the pandemic, Trump pounced.

“Did you use the word smart?” Trump said. “So you said you went to Delaware State, but you forgot the name of your college. You didn’t go to Delaware State. You graduated either the lowest or almost the lowest in your class.”

“Don’t ever use the word smart with me,” continued Trump, who graduated from the University of Pennsylvania. “Don’t ever use that word … Because you know what? There’s nothing smart about you, Joe.”

Biden received his undergraduate degree from the University of Delaware in Newark in 1965 and enrolled shortly thereafter at Syracuse University law school. He wasn’t known for his stellar grades; at Syracuse, he graduated 76th in a class of 85.

Trump nods to the Proud Boys

It was one of Trump’s most memorable moments that didn’t involve interrupting Biden.

Wallace pushed Trump to condemn white supremacists and militia groups, particularly as the Republican president spent so much of his energy denouncing so-called “Antifa” or far-left militant groups.

Trump responded that he was willing to do so, but never explicitly condemned right-wing extremist groups by name. When goaded by Biden to condemn the Proud Boys, one of such groups on the right, Trump seemingly did the opposite.

“Proud Boys, stand back and stand by,” Trump said. Those words, and the broader exchange, left some members of the neofascist group celebrating what they saw as an implicit approval from the president.

Trump was forced into clean-up duty one day later, saying he did not know who the Proud Boys were and adding that “whoever they are, they have to stand down. Let law enforcement do their work.”

The contentious exchange about Biden’s sons

Biden has long criticized Trump’s attitude toward American troops, including his reported comments that in 2018, he did not want to visit a U.S. military cemetery in France because he thought the deceased soldiers were “suckers” and “losers.”

“The way you talk about the military, the way you talk about them being losers and being, and, and, and just being suckers,” Biden said to Trump. Speaking of his older son, Beau, a veteran who died of brain cancer, Biden continued: “My son was in Iraq. He spent a year there. He got — he got the Bronze Star. He got the Conspicuous Service Medal. He was not a loser. He was a patriot.”

Trump swung back hard, taking aim at Biden’s younger son, Hunter, instead.

“Are you talking Hunter? Are you talking about Hunter?” Trump responded, continuing: “I don’t know Beau. I know Hunter. Hunter got thrown out of the military.”

Trump then claimed that Hunter Biden was dishonorably discharged, which Biden quickly refuted. Hunter Biden was administratively discharged — which is not a dishonorable discharge — from the Navy in 2014 after testing positive for cocaine.

“My son … like a lot of people we know at home had a drug problem. He’s overtaken it,” Biden said, adding: “I’m proud of my son.”

Biden commits to not declaring victory until the election is certified, Trump does not

During the final moments of the first debate, Wallace asked both candidates whether they would commit to not declaring victory until the election had been independently certified, as well as urging their respective supporters to stay calm.

Trump declined to do so, instead saying he would encourage his supporters to go watch the polls and musing about election fraud.

Biden, in sharp contrast, responded to the same question: “Yes.”

Trump, who would go on to lose the 2020 race, never conceded the election. Just over three months after the Cleveland debate, a mob of his supporters fueled by his election lies stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Trudy Rubin: Ukraine’s head of military intelligence is behind Kyiv’s biggest victories this year. He sees no point in peace talks

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KYIV, Ukraine — There have been at least 10 Kremlin attempts to kill one of Ukraine’s most admired heroes, the legendary head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

Russian agents have blown up his car. They even poisoned his wife.

She survived. He pledged revenge.

When I met the spy chief in his darkened office recently, during a rare interview with a foreign journalist, I asked whether the Russians are still trying to kill him. The poker-faced Budanov shrugged. “It’s normal,” he said.

Then, allowing himself a half-smile, the lieutenant general added: “Let’s put it this way: Since we are talking with you now, it means they are not succeeding.”

There are good reasons why the Kremlin will continue to try.

Budanov’s spy agency, known as HUR, has carried out some of Ukraine’s most stunning military successes, including long-range drone strikes inside Russian territory. Meanwhile, the agency’s Magura sea drones — a game-changing Ukrainian invention — have helped push most of the Russian fleet out of its main Black Sea harbor in occupied Crimea and back to ports on the Russian mainland.

These gains are probably Ukraine’s most important victories in the last year — and could lead to more surprising maritime successes to offset the stalemate on land.

HUR headquarters is located on an isolated peninsula that juts into the Dnieper River. Inside a grim, gray, low-rise block, Budanov’s office is barely lit. He prefers to operate in the shadows — in military operations as well as at his desk.

Behind that book- and paper-laden desk hangs a large painting of an owl sinking its claws into a bat. The HUR adopted the owl as its symbol in 2016, two years after Moscow invaded Crimea, to troll the Russians. The bat is the symbol of the special operations unit of Russia’s military intelligence agency.

On a nearby table, a set of polished metal chess pieces shines through the gloom, as if to warn that Budanov is poised to out-strategize Moscow.

Appointed to his post four years ago, the 38-year-old spymaster has been known to lead his men on daring raids into enemy territory. “He is a pirate who loves operations,” an admirer told me. He is also famous for his tight lips.

But in our interview, Budanov spoke openly about the need to expand drone attacks inside Russia and to make it impossible for Moscow to hold on to Crimea. And he was frank about the challenges Ukraine faces — including the continued need for U.S. weapons and the possibility of an election victory by Donald Trump.

Striking back

Asked whether Ukrainian troops could stop the current Russian offensive in the east, where Moscow has been making small but steady territorial gains, Budanov spoke plainly.

“The good news is that no Armageddon will emerge,” he told me. “The bad news is that the situation is quite difficult. It will remain like this for at least one month, and will not become easier.”

Moscow is expected to pound Ukraine as hard as it can in the lead-up to the 75th anniversary NATO summit in mid-July in Washington, and before the U.S. delivers more of the artillery shells and other critical supplies that were held up by Congress.

The Kremlin has been trying since the war began to take control of the entire eastern Donbas region. “We will do everything possible to prevent them, and to minimize the Russian successes,” Budanov said.

However, when I inquired whether Ukraine could hold one of the most hotly contested eastern towns, Chasiv Yar, which sits on high ground that bars a Russian advance across flatter steppes and toward large industrial cities, his reply was cryptic: “I will refrain from response.”

When I subsequently traveled to the Chasiv Yar area, the situation did not look good, and there was great bitterness among the troops over the many lives lost because Ukraine ran out of artillery shells and other vital supplies while Congress dawdled over whether to provide additional military aid.

Now, more artillery shells are arriving slowly, from the U.S. and Europe. “For sure, weapons delivery is faster than it was several months ago,” Budanov allowed, “but Ukraine’s needs are very high, which is why it has been strategically important for us to have the deliveries renewed. Still, there is a question of volume.”

Manpower is also a critical problem for Ukraine, with Moscow prepared to grind its troops up like meat while much smaller Ukraine is anxious to preserve its soldiers.

Budanov believes the answer to Russia’s superiority in manpower is battlefield technology, in which Ukraine has become a global leader, replacing humans on the battlefield whenever possible with new variants of drones and electronic warfare. “Technologies will have quite a significant meaning in this war,” he predicted, “so that we don’t fight the war until the last citizen’s left.”

Technology is key to one of Budanov’s most intensive projects: taking the war to Russia with long-range drones.

“I am a fan of this,” the intelligence chief said with an intensity that broke through his laconic style. “I have been advocating this since the very first days of the war, saying openly that so long as the war is contained on our territory, it will not affect Russia.

“That is why since spring 2022, we have started to conduct significant operations on Russian territory, and we will go further the more resources we have for this. And Russia has started to feel it.”

In other words, Vladimir Putin can no longer pretend to his people that this war doesn’t affect them.

“It is still not critical for Russia at this stage, but it has led to the situation when the average citizen in the European part of the Russian Federation for sure knows and feels that the war is ongoing and has experienced some of the explosions himself. It influences, even on a small scale now, their morale.”

Budanov later publicly confirmed that the night after my interview last week, Kyiv launched a swarm of at least 70 drones on Russia’s Morozovsk airfield, located about 150 miles from the front lines and home to dozens of Moscow’s vaunted Sukhoi Su-34 fighter bombers. HUR has also been involved in attacks by long-range Ukrainian Liutyi airplane drones that have destroyed dozens of Russian oil refineries.

A White House warning to Kyiv not to hit refineries makes no sense since they are a legitimate war target. These attacks may not turn the war around, the intel chief admitted, but he believes they can affect Russia’s economy “and psychological state,” which in turn “affects the military component.” HUR has announced that it considers any Russian military target within a 500-mile range fair game.

Shifting policy

I asked about the usefulness of President Joe Biden’s shift in policy to allow U.S. weapons to be used to hit sources of Russian fire just across the border from the major city of Kharkiv.

“It will ease our lives,” said Budanov, but he added that if Kyiv were permitted to use U.S. weaponry “to the whole so-called operational depth in Russia that we can reach, of course, it will be easier for us.”

Budanov believes that the Crimean Peninsula — captured by Moscow in 2014 and turned into a huge military base that controls most of Ukraine’s southern coast — can be cut off from resupply and forced into submission.

Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, has long argued that this would be the key to putting Putin on the defensive. “I share the opinion of Gen. Hodges, absolutely,” said the Ukrainian spy chief. “So we need to do everything to implement it.”

HUR’s Ukrainian-made Magura drones have already been used to destroy several Russian ships and force them to relocate from Crimea. “They are already trapped near Novorossiysk port,” Budanov said. “We just need to make sure that all the remains of the fleet are pushed back to the territory of the Russian Federation. There have been no combat ships left in the Black Sea for a long time.”

Next step is to cut all resupply for Russian forces in Crimea, including Putin’s pet project, the Kerch Bridge.

Budanov has already been “arrested in absentia” by Moscow for his agency’s role in seriously damaging the bridge in 2022, apparently with a truck bomb. He considers that an honor.

He believes that long-range ATACMS missiles, which Biden finally delivered to Ukraine in recent months, could ultimately take out the bridge. Those who claim ATACMS aren’t powerful enough to do the job are mistaken, he said. “They should read the technical manuals. The only question is their quantities, but principally speaking, these missiles will allow us to fulfill such a mission.”

Budanov scoffs at the idea that Moscow would use tactical nuclear weapons if control of Crimea were threatened, a fear Putin constantly fans. The Ukrainian believes he understands Putin’s mindset and limitations.

“First of all, I know what is really happening out there. Secondly, I know the real characteristics of Russian nuclear weapons. What use would it have? We don’t have big concentrations of troops for which such nuclear weapons would be appropriate.

“And to break holes in our defense lines is possible with conventional means of warfare. Besides, using nuclear weapons would lead to big political risks for Putin.”

I would add that Putin’s redlines on Crimea have been crossed many times when Ukraine fired British missiles at bases there, and nothing has happened. If there is any chance to convince Putin he can’t win, it may lie with making Moscow’s hold on Crimea untenable.

As for Budanov, he sees no point in peace talks, because “we have no option but to get back what was occupied. Otherwise, the state of war will go on forever.”

A bigger problem may be Trump, who keeps repeating he would cut off military aid to Ukraine if reelected. Budanov remains sanguine at the prospect of a Trump win in November.

“I have a calm attitude to the possibility of Trump coming to power,” he said. “Your elections are very unpredictable. If you analyze his public speeches, he has changed his position several times. And the power of your system is that it doesn’t allow one individual to make decisions unilaterally.

“In the end, I believe in the USA and that we will reach victory together. And here I am stressing, together! This is what I would like to finish with.”

Indeed, as Ukrainian officials are starting to hedge their bets about a Trump win, I can’t help thinking that Budanov might be one Ukrainian who could appeal to Trump as a derring-do military figure who “wins” and can show exciting video of the new style of drone warfare.

Before I left, I asked Budanov: If I come back in a year, will things be better?

“I will refrain from replying,” he said. “This is a very philosophical question.”

His reply reminded me of the famous social media video in which he stares at the camera in silence for 32 seconds. Then, three words flash on the screen in Ukrainian: To be continued.

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for The Philadelphia Inquirer, P.O. Box 8263, Philadelphia, Pa. 19101,. Her email address is trubin@phillynews.com

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Commentary: As AI is embraced, what happens to the artists whose work was stolen to build it?

Opinion |


Joe Grogan: Access to new Alzheimer’s treatments bogged down by Medicare policy