Presidential battle could play role in control of state capitols in several swing states

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By Mark Scolforo and David A. Lieb, Associated Press

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Two swing districts in a swing county may very well decide which party controls the House in the swing state of Pennsylvania, one of several where pivotal legislative battles are playing out in the shadow of the presidential campaign.

Democrat Brian Munroe and Republican Joe Hogan were elected nearly two years ago to their seats in the suburbs north of Philadelphia, winning by margins of 515 and 76 votes, respectively, out of more than 30,000 ballots cast.

State Rep. Brian Munroe, a Bucks County Democrat, poses in his Capitol office during a break in floor session on Tuesday, June 4, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pa. Munroe was narrowly elected in a suburban Philadelphia district two years ago, and Democrats hope he will keep the seat as they defend a one-vote legislative majority in the November General Election. (AP Photo/Mark Scolforo)

Their races this year are among a few dozen nationally that could determine party control in state capitols and, ultimately, who sets public policy on such contentious issues as abortion, guns and transgender rights. The contests are particularly important due to recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions that have weakened federal regulatory oversight and returned more power to states.

“State legislatures will determine the rights and freedoms we have and the direction our country takes. The stakes couldn’t be higher,” said Daniel Squadron, co-founder of The States Project, which recently announced a $70 million effort to aid Democratic legislative candidates in certain states.

State Rep. Joe Hogan, a Bucks County freshman Republican, poses in his Capitol offices on Monday, July 8, 2024, in the state Capitol in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Mark Scolforo)

All told, groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans are planning to pour a couple hundred million dollars into state legislative battles. Nearly 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for election this year. The top targets include a half-dozen states where control of a chamber is in play — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Most of those states also are presidential battlegrounds. In some cases, national political groups are trying to link legislative candidates to the fortunes of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. In others, they are trying to distinguish them from the top of the ticket.

Biden sought to rebound from a poor debate performance by campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But his political problems have led some Democrats to suggest he should step aside and raised concern that down-ballot Democrats also could suffer if discouraged Democrats choose not to vote.

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On Wednesday, Democratic legislative leaders from Arizona and Wisconsin said they hope the door-to-door efforts of their statehouse candidates can have a reverse coat-tails effect, boosting Democrats at the top of the ticket.

Democrats won a slim 102-101 majority in the Pennsylvania House two years ago. But Republicans expressed confidence they can retake the chamber this year, citing inflation, immigration and Biden’s troubles.

“If the election were held tomorrow, I’d feel great about it,” said Pennsylvania state Rep. Josh Kail, head of the campaign efforts for Pennsylvania House Republicans.

The Republican State Leadership Committee already has run ads in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin pinning inflation on Biden and other Democrats while touting Republican legislative candidates.

Democrats are targeting Wisconsin after a new liberal majority of the state Supreme Court struck down the previous Republican-drawn districts that had entrenched the GOP in power. The new districts, backed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, improve Democrats’ chances.

The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning a half-century of abortion rights showed both the influence of national politics in state elections and the importance of state legislatures. After the ruling, many Republican-led states banned or limited abortion while many Democratic-led states strengthened abortion protections.

The ruling gave Democrats a new campaign theme for the 2022 legislative elections, which were the first conducted under voting districts redrawn using 2020 census data. Democrats wrested control of legislative chambers away from Republicans in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.

This year’s reelection bids by Hogan and Munroe are among 15 Pennsylvania House races spotlighted by the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Both of their Bucks County districts gave slightly more than half their votes to Biden four years ago and a larger margin to Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro in their 2022 races for U.S. Senate and governor.

“We believe we have a great opportunity not just to protect our majority in the suburbs, but to grow our majority,” Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Matt Bradford said.

Democrat Anna Payne, who is challenging Hogan, sees abortion rights, public safety and school funding as the key issues.

Anna Payne, a Democratic challenger in a suburban Philadelphia swing district for a seat in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, poses for a photograph, Wednesday, June 26, 2024, in Langhorne, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

“To some extent, people are looking for common sense,” Payne said. “They don’t want anybody who’s too extreme on one side or too extreme on the other.”

Hogan, a former congressional aid, has burnished a moderate image in the General Assembly, working on childhood education and public transit, among other things.

“I’m willing to work with anybody to do what I think is the right thing,” Hogan said.

Rosemary Donahue, a 77-year-old retired nurse and registered Republican, said she has received mail from Hogan and will be evaluating his performance on such issues as fixing roads, supporting schools and women’s health rights. She regularly follows state and national politics.

“If you watch television, you can’t think of anything else, because you’re constantly being bombarded by the presidential election, advertisements and all,” Donahue said.

Arlene McBride, who recently became one of Munroe’s constituents, said she’ll be watching his race with Bucks County Recorder of Deeds Dan McPhillips to see who is more inclined to preserve the social safety net. She ranks women’s health, education and welcoming immigrants among her top issues.

Dan McPhillips, a Republican challenger in a suburban Philadelphia swing district for a seat in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, poses for a photograph, Wednesday, June 26, 2024, in Doylestown, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

“Do they care about others or are they strictly for business?” said McBride, 90, a registered Democrat. “It doesn’t seem that those who are strictly for big business really care about the less fortunate.”

Research has shown that many voters know little about their state legislative candidates, so “national politics will probably dominate the state legislative elections,” said Steven Rogers, a political scientist at Saint Louis University who focuses on state legislatures.

While Republicans seek to reverse their 2022 losses, Democrats are pushing to flip closely divided, GOP-led legislative chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire.

Immigration and inflation are especially hot issues in Arizona. And abortion rights supporters recently submitted petition signatures to get a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. That has raised the stakes in a state where voter registration is divided almost equally among Republicans, independents and Democrats.

“I’m expecting a lot of the national issues — the national dynamics — to really play into the legislative races in Arizona because of our battleground-state status,” said James Strickland a political scientist at Arizona State University.

Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.

More states consider voter ID laws amid conflicting research on their impact

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Matt Vasilogambros | (TNS) Stateline.org

Nevada voters may decide in November whether they should join three dozen other states in requiring voters to present valid identification before casting a ballot. And Maine may not be far behind, as the push for voter ID requirements grows nationwide despite conflicting studies over their effects.

Conservative organizers in Nevada say they have gathered enough signatures to qualify their measure for the general election ballot. It would amend the state constitution to require voters to present an ID at polling places or to include some form of identification — such as the last four digits of a driver’s license or Social Security number — on mail-in ballots.

“We’ve seen over the last 20 years there have been questions about the people who voted and whether there have been fake ballots,” said David Gibbs, chair of Repair the Vote PAC, a North Las Vegas-based group that is leading the ballot initiative effort. “This is one way to tighten that up. A lot of people look at it and it makes sense.”

If the measure makes the ballot and voters approve it in November, they will have to vote on it again in 2026, as required to amend the state’s constitution.

It has a good chance of passing. According to a June poll by Fox News, 84% of registered Nevada voters support implementing voter ID. Those findings closely mirror national poll numbers from the Pew Research Center, which in February found that 81% of U.S. adults favored requiring people to show a government-issued photo ID to vote.

Voting rights advocates cite research showing that such rules block many legitimate voters — especially young, Black and Latino voters — from the polls. But backers of voter ID laws point to other studies which suggest that the rules have had a minimal effect on voter turnout, partly because Democrats often respond to them by amping up their voter mobilization efforts.

For more than a decade, Republican lawmakers have pushed to implement stricter voter ID laws. Thirty-six states require some form of identification to cast a ballot, though laws vary by state over the accepted types of identification and requirements to vote by mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

That list may grow.

In May, the Republican-led New Hampshire legislature passed a measure that would require residents to prove their citizenship status to register to vote. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has yet to sign it into law.

In Maine, conservative activists are still gathering signatures to put their voter ID measure on the November 2025 ballot. Maine does not require a photo ID at polling places, and Democratic lawmakers are trying to keep it that way, arguing it could prevent residents who are less likely to have a driver’s license from being able to vote.

Voting rights advocates say voter ID laws can lead to confusion at polling places, and that states that implement them should do more to ensure equitable access to official IDs.

“The more complicated we make voting, the more hurdles we put in front of people, the more pitfalls there are for people who are just trying to participate in our democracy,” said Sean Morales-Doyle, director of the voting rights program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, a progressive policy nonprofit.

The Brennan Center, along with the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland and voting rights organizations Public Wise and VoteRiders, released a survey in June which found that nearly 21 million voting-age U.S. citizens don’t have current driver’s licenses.

The survey also found that more than a quarter of Black and Latino adults lack a driver’s license with their current name or address — higher than their white and Asian American counterparts. A substantially higher percentage of young people also lack up-to-date identification, it said.

Getting an updated driver’s license takes time and costs money, which may be harder for people who are of a lower socioeconomic status, Morales-Doyle said. And those who earn less typically change addresses frequently, he added.

The survey also showed a considerable gap in voter understanding of state voter ID laws: It found that more than half of Americans in states that require identification to vote did not know their state’s laws. A March report from NBC News found that 29 million Americans live in states that have implemented a new voter ID law since 2020.

Recent elections in North Carolina and Ohio illustrate the impact: Confusion over voter ID rules led to rejected provisional ballots.

VoteRiders is attempting to increase awareness and knowledge of voter ID requirements through its on-the-ground efforts, 24/7 helpline, and text message, billboard and PSA outreach.

The group has organizers in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin who go to college campuses, LGBTQ+ Pride events, health clinics and community resource fairs, delivering information on those states’ voter ID laws. Annually, the group helps more than 10,000 people get an ID.

“One of the things that keeps me up at night is thinking about how dramatically the rules of the game have changed when it comes to voting since 2020,” said Lauren Kunis, the nonpartisan group’s CEO. “I worry that many people on the issue of ID and other aspects of the voting process are going to be caught flat-footed in November.”

In Nevada, Repair the Vote PAC last month turned in more than 179,000 signatures it gathered throughout the state, using both volunteers and a company it hired to go door-to-door and to stand outside grocery stores and libraries. The state requires more than 102,000 valid signatures, including a certain number in every congressional district. State and local officials must now validate those signatures.

Gibbs, the group’s chair, argues that the new identification requirement would not throw up obstacles to voting. He dismissed the argument that voter ID measures make it harder for people of color or lower-income people to vote.

“You need a photo ID to get a job. You need a photo ID to open a bank account. You need a photo ID to do almost anything,” he told Stateline. “I personally don’t know anybody who doesn’t have one, but then again, at the same time, you can get one.”

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a national nonprofit news organization focused on state policy.

Nikki Haley releases delegates, urges them to back Trump at convention

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Hadriana Lowenkron | Bloomberg News (TNS)

WASHINGTON — Nikki Haley is releasing her delegates and encouraging them to support her onetime primary rival Donald Trump at next week’s Republican National Convention.

Haley, in a statement Tuesday, called the convention a “time for Republican unity” and cast her decision as important to denying President Joe Biden another term in the White House.

“Joe Biden is not competent to serve a second term and Kamala Harris would be a disaster for America,” Haley said of the incumbent and his vice presidential running mate. “We need a president who will hold our enemies to account, secure our border, cut our debt, and get our economy back on track. I encourage my delegates to support Donald Trump next week in Milwaukee.”

Haley’s decision was first reported by Politico.

The former South Carolina governor ended her own run for the Republican presidential nomination in March after a poor performance in the Super Tuesday contests, becoming the last major rival to Trump to exit the primary. Haley, who also served as ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, ran a campaign that touted her foreign policy experience and pledged to be a careful steward of the federal budget.

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She argued the country needed a younger generation of leaders to take the helm and called for presidential candidates older than 75 to undergo mental competency tests, an attack on Trump, 78, and Biden, who at 81 is the oldest U.S. president in history. Questions about Biden’s mental acuity have intensified following a debate performance that led some Democrats to call for him to allow another candidate to take on Trump.

Haley’s 97 delegates come from a variety of states, including four from swing-state Michigan. The small number of delegates she won would not have prevented Trump, who amassed 2,265 delegates, from receiving the nomination, but highlighted a layer of discontent within the Republican Party that Haley was able to harness during her campaign.

Haley won the contests in Vermont and the District of Columbia but also picked up delegates in other states, where her campaign appealed to women, independents and voters reluctant to coalesce behind Trump as the party’s standard-bearer. Her campaign notably secured the backing of some deep-pocketed Wall Street donors reluctant to endorse Trump.

The race between Haley and her onetime boss grew increasingly acrimonious, with the two hurling personal attacks and the former president threatening to ban her donors and supporters from his wing of the GOP if they did not fall in line.

Haley in May said she would vote for Trump in the general election even though he had “not been perfect” on many issues, including foreign policy.

Haley was not invited to the Republican convention, according to her spokesperson Chaney Denton.

“She’s fine with that. Trump deserves the convention he wants,” Denton said in a statement. “She’s made it clear she’s voting for him and wishes him the best.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Harris rallies in Las Vegas for Biden. Many Democrats agree, but some want her to face Trump

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Faith E. Pinho | (TNS) Los Angeles Times

LAS VEGAS — Officially, Vice President Kamala Harris appeared in Las Vegas on Tuesday to launch a Biden campaign initiative to reach for Asian American, Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiian voters.

But the quiet underpinning of the event at a resort ballroom was the vice president’s firm support of President Biden, even as some Democratic officials — and some supporters in the room — expressed hope that he will step down and that Harris will emerge as the new leader of the party.

Harris’ visit to Las Vegas coincides with the president’s defiant insistence that he will remain in the race despite some calls to step aside after his disastrous debate performance against former President Trump last month.

Biden, who appeared listless and confused during the debate, has been attempting to corral support among his fellow Democratic officeholders, even as some cracks appeared over the weekend in a once-solid base. Democratic members of Congress returned to Washington, D.C., this week after a holiday break, and a central topic of discussion was Biden’s viability as a presidential candidate.

The stakes are high in Nevada, where Biden won narrowly in 2020 but which now leans Republican, according to the Cook Political Report. But inside the Las Vegas ballroom Tuesday, the mood was cheerful, as a crowd of a few hundred people repeatedly erupted into chants of “Four more years!”

In her roughly 15-minute speech, Harris gave fleeting mention of the debate debacle and the swirling questions about Biden’s suitability for reelection.

“The past few days have been a reminder that running for president of the United States is never easy,” she said. “But the one thing we know about our president, Joe Biden, is that he is a fighter.”

The crowd roared in response. But in conversations before and after the rally, even some supporters expressed doubt about the president’s ability to continue.

“He probably should step down,” said Alyse Sobosan, a college advisor for a Las Vegas charter school. Conversations about Biden’s health are taking away from the effectiveness of the campaign, she said: “We can’t even talk about the issues or his stances on things, because all the conversation is just about him and his health.”

The 36-year-old said she would support Harris as “a strong candidate” to replace Biden should he leave the race, but that the vice president should do more to amplify her national profile.

“I feel neutral to positive about her,” Sobosan said. “I just don’t know a lot about her.”

Abraham Camejo, 41, brought his four children to the event. They munched on rice cake and sausage skewers, a traditional Korean dish, while he explained why he was sticking with Biden, saying that it was “too late in the game” to switch candidates.

“Can we have a younger Biden? That would be very nice. But unfortunately, we tend to get old,” said Camejo, joking that perhaps the 81-year-old president could get some energy with “a little Red Bull.”

“We just got to understand that he’s not a young man,” he said. “But can he get the job done? And I honestly believe that he can.”

The Las Vegas event was headlined as a kickoff for the campaign to target Asian American, Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiian voters. The campaign group Nevada for Biden-Harris announced that it was launching a blitz of paid media in the state to coincide with the rally, including ads in several Asian-language publications.

Padma Lakshmi, the cookbook author and host and executive producer of the Hulu show “Taste the Nation,” helped introduce Harris as the first Asian American and woman to become U.S. vice president.

“I thought of how much it would’ve meant to me as a young girl to see an Asian American woman helping lead our country,” Lakshmi said.

Vivienne Bailey-Reid, 61, a consultant in Las Vegas, said she left Harris’ speech feeling inspired and reinvigorated to support the Democratic administration.

“We need to focus and just stop getting bent out of shape about President Biden’s age,” Bailey-Reid said. “I think she gave us the hope that, ‘Wait a minute, we’re still in charge.’”

Her friend Linn Hummel, 62, agreed, though she added that Harris had failed to deliver a succinct takeaway message Tuesday, and had instead piled on statistics and facts. Democrats need to have an easy message to carry to undecided voters, Hummel said, adding that while Harris may attract some voters, such as women, “she needs to focus that message just a little bit more.”

“As Democrats … we need to have the same sort of zeal that Republicans have,” she continued. “It used to be, in our political system, good or bad, when the candidate was chosen, that’s who you stood behind. And the fact that he may have had a poor showing in a debate is that moment in time. It is not who he is altogether.”

Hummel said that although she understood why the media and Democratic pundits remained focused on Biden’s debate performance, she wished they would move on.

“It’s that vicious cycle. Once you ask that question — ‘Is he viable?’ — now that’s all you can think about,” she said, adding: “I don’t need to know what time [Biden] is going to bed.”

The most cohesive message Harris delivered, the two friends agreed, was the importance of defeating Trump.

Harris spent a portion of her speech condemning the Supreme Court’s recent decision to allow presidents immunity from prosecution for official acts, saying, “Trump wants to turn our democracy into a dictatorship. And the Supreme Court basically just declared he can get away with it.”

She outlined Project 2025, a plan created by close Trump allies for overhauling the federal government, should he be elected in November.

The goal of defeating Trump motivated Arlene and Joel Williams, a couple who moved to Las Vegas two years ago from San Jose, to begin writing letters in support of the Democratic Party a couple of months ago.

The two, both 74, say they will support any Democrat — including Harris, whom they’ve known since her days as a San Francisco politician.

“We don’t want Trump. It’s scary,” Arlene Williams said.

Her husband added: “We’re in the anybody-but-Trump camp.”

___

©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.