By ADAM GELLER and ABBY SEWELL

As Israel unleashed a sweeping military response to the brutal Oct. 7, 2023, assault by Hamas, it aimed punch after punch at the power of Iran, the group’s longtime sponsor, and its other proxies and allies in the region.

The result has been a rapid and systematic degradation of Iran’s clout across the Middle East over the past 2½ years, a seismic change that led directly to this weekend’s devastating attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel.

“Certainly the Oct. 7 events were a turning point in this long conflict between Iran and Israel,” said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian politics at the Missouri University of Science and Technology. “I think it provided Israel with the argument or justification to deliver a strong blow.”

The most devastating hit so far came this weekend when President Donald Trump and Israeli leaders launched a wave of attacks on Iran, killing Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and inflicting widespread destruction. But the war, while still in its early stages, is part of a much longer continuum of events that have severely weakened Iran, Hezbollah and other proxy militias, and upended political balance in the region.

“It’s a very bloody, a very violent but transformative moment that the Middle East is going through,” said Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow focused on the Middle East at Chatham House, a British think tank. “We don’t know where this will end up.”

Hezbollah supporters gather to mourn the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the southern Suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

The war in Gaza was the wellspring

The damage to Iran’s power radiated from the war in Gaza, where Israeli forces followed Hamas after fighters killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages during the Oct. 7 attacks. Israel has since killed more than 72,000 Palestinians in Gaza, nearly half of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry, which is under Gaza’s Hamas government and which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.

The conflict quickly expanded, though, to include other groups in the Iran-sponsored Axis of Resistance.

In Lebanon, the powerful militant group Hezbollah had long been considered Iran’s first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. It was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters.

After Oct. 7, the group launched rockets across the border to Israel, seeking to aid its ally Hamas. That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war in the fall of 2024.

Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of the militant group’s arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire nominally halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes.

Hezbollah was further weakened when rebels overthrew the regime of key ally Syrian President Bashar Assad, cutting off a major supply route for Iranian weapons.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, also sponsored by Iran, joined the expanding conflict, firing rockets at vessels in the Red Sea and targeting Israel. U.S. warships and the Israeli military returned fire.

Hezbollah supporters shout slogans as they gather to mourn the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the southern Suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Israel left the status quo behind

As the conflict expanded, leaders of Iran and its proxies failed to recognize that Israel had abandoned the long-tense status quo and was trying to engineer a fundamental shift, Mansour said.

The toll on Iran escalated last June when Israel launched a surprise offensive aimed at decimating Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program while Iran and the U.S. were in negotiations for a nuclear deal. The 12-day war that followed saw bombing attacks of Iran’s energy industry and Defense Ministry headquarters.

Iran’s weakened proxy groups largely stayed on the sidelines as their sponsor came under direct attack last year. So far in the new war, they’ve done much the same.

“It’s very much about survival” for Hezbollah and the other Iran-backed groups, Mansour said. He noted that over time the Axis had become less driven by top-down orders from Iran, and the groups have become more autonomous. “And survival to them is based on calculations that aren’t necessarily about Iran’s survival.”

Since Israel and the U.S. launched a barrage of strikes on Iran Saturday, Tehran’s allies and proxies in the region have had a minimal role in the response.

Hezbollah appeared to change that early Monday, even though the group has been under great pressure by Lebanese officials not to enter the fray in defense of Iran out of fear of another damaging war in Lebanon.

Hezbollah issued statements condemning the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and mourning the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Then it hinted it might get involved. Early Monday, it did, firing missiles across the border. Israel promptly retaliated with strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut. It was the first time in more than a year that Hezbollah has claimed a strike against Israel.

Hezbollah said in a statement that the strikes were carried out in retaliation for the killing of Khamenei and for “repeated Israeli aggressions.”

How might other proxy groups react?

How other proxy groups could react to Khamenei’s death remains to be seen. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Israel’s actions since 2023 may give such groups pause.

“Previous bouts of conflict since Oct. 7 appear to have underlined the existential risk associated with making yourself a target,” Lister said in an email responding to questions from The Associated Press.

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In Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed several drone strikes targeting U.S. bases in Irbil, the capital of the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the country’s north. The extent of damage caused by the attacks is not clear. But the Kurdish region has seen widespread power outages after a key gas field that supplies much of the region’s electricity stopped operations, citing security concerns.

Two officials with different Iran-backed militias in Iraq told the AP that a meeting took place two months ago between Iranian officials and allied Iraqi militias to make plans for a response in case Iran was attacked, including distributing tasks among the Iraqi armed groups.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. One of the officials said it was decided that the response would target U.S. forces and interests in Iraq’s semiautonomous northern Kurdish region and in neighboring Jordan.

There’s often a misconception that Iran issues orders to its proxy militant groups and they all fall in line, Boroujerdi said. But independent decisions the groups have made so far to stay clear of the conflict are a sign of the overall weakening of Iran’s network.

“The dominoes started to fall with the October 7 events,” Boroujerdi said. “Just take note of everything that has changed since then in terms of the balance of power.”

Associated Press writer Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed to this report.

Minnesota’s women’s basketball team moved up to No. 19 in this week’s AP Top 25 Women’s Basketball Poll, released Monday. It’s the Gophers’ third consecutive appearance in the top 25 since they cracked the poll at No. 23.

The Gophers beat Illinois, 78-73, on Sunday in Champaign to finish their Big Ten regular season with nine wins in their last 10 games and a 13-5 conference record, tied for fourth place with No. 11 Ohio State. They earned the No. 4 seed in this week’s conference tournament in Indianapolis because they beat the Buckeyes on Feb. 18.

The Gophers (22-7) won’t play until Friday in the tournament quarterfinals against Ohio State or the winner of a first-round game between Nebraska and Wisconsin.

Minnesota earned 226 points in this week’s AP poll. Six other Big Ten teams were ranked this week, including No. 2 UCLA, No. 8 Michigan, No. 9 Iowa, No. 14 Maryland and No. 18 Michigan State. Washington and Illinois also received votes.

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By SEAN MURPHY

Some of the United States’ most important historical documents are beginning a first-of-its kind journey Monday as part of the country’s 250th anniversary commemoration.

Typically housed in highly controlled vaults under the watch of preservation experts at the National Archives, documents such as the 1783 Treaty of Paris that formally ended the Revolutionary War and the 1774 Articles of Association that urged colonists to boycott British goods are rarely moved.

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But those documents, signed by George Washington, John Adams, Benjamin Franklin and other American revolutionary leaders, will be making their way across the country and put on display for free at local museums.

“It’s tangible history, and tangible history inspires,” said Jim Byron, senior adviser to the acting archivist of the United States. “These documents have not traveled, and they’ve certainly not traveled collectively, ever. They are here in vaults.”

The Boeing 737 “Freedom Plane” transporting the documents is just one of many events and activities planned across the country to mark America’s upcoming 250th anniversary celebrating the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776. A congressionally chartered commission, America 250, and a separate White House-led initiative, called Freedom 250, are both coordinating events, an overlap that has faced some criticism in Washington.

Among the planned activities are a fleet of mobile museums driving across the country, a story collection initiative and a Great American State Fair on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. President Donald Trump has even announced plans for a “ Patriot Games ” sporting event featuring high school athletes and a UFC mixed-martial arts fight at the White House.

The “Freedom Plane” is scheduled to depart Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on Monday and head to its first stop in Kansas City, Missouri, where the documents will be transferred to the National WWI Museum and Memorial. The records include a rare original engraving of the Declaration of Independence printed in 1823 from a copperplate of the original; the Oaths of Allegiance signed in 1778 by George Washington, Alexander Hamilton and other officers of the Continental Army; and a rare draft copy of the U.S. Constitution that includes handwritten notes by the delegates.

Other planned stops will be in Atlanta, Los Angeles, Houston, Denver, Miami, the Detroit suburb of Dearborn and Seattle.

“The reality that these documents are leaving D.C. and coming to the heartland is fantastic,” said Matt Naylor, president and CEO of the National World War I Museum and Memorial, where they will be on display for a little over two weeks starting Friday. “There’s a lot of excitement about that and a lot of talk in and around the city about what that means.”

Two visitors look at exhibits beneath a large wall mural showing the signing of the Declaration of Independence at the National Archives Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/John McDonnell)

Naylor said the early response has been overwhelming. Local schools have already booked visits for more than 5,000 schoolchildren.

“That’s indicating that there’s a lot of enthusiasm for this,” he said.

The “Freedom Plane” tour was inspired in part by the “American Freedom Train” that toured 48 states in 1975 and 1976 as part of the country’s bicentennial celebration. It carried various pieces of American history, including the original Louisiana Purchase documents, Judy Garland’s dress from The Wizard of Oz and Jesse Owens’ gold medals from the 1936 Olympic Games.

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — To receive Medicaid health coverage, some adults will soon have to show they are working, volunteering or taking classes. But to gather that proof, many states first will have to spend millions of dollars improving their computer systems.

Across the nation, states face an immense task and high costs to prepare for the Jan. 1 kickoff of new Medicaid eligibility mandates affecting millions of lower-income adults in the government-funded health care program.

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The first half of a $200 million federal allotment has already begun flowing to states to help implement the new requirements. But the tab for the needed technology improvements and additional staff is likely to exceed $1 billion, according to an Associated Press analysis of budget projections in more than 25 states. That extra cost will be borne by a mixture of federal and state tax dollars.

The task is not as simple as pushing through a software update on your smartphone or personal computer. That’s because each state has its own system for managing Medicaid, often requiring experts to make customized changes.

“Our current eligibility systems are pretty old, and the ability to change them is very, very difficult,” said Toi Wilde, chief information officer for the Missouri Department of Social Services.

New Medicaid requirements affect millions, but not all

The big tax-cut law signed last year by Trump is financed, in part, by sweeping Medicaid changes intended to cut government spending. Two of the most prominent will apply in four-fifths of the states, affecting Medicaid enrollees ages 19 through 64, without young children, whose incomes are above the typical eligibility cutoff.

Those Medicaid participants will have to work or do community service at least 80 hours a month, or enroll at least half-time as a student. They also will face eligibility reviews every six months, instead of annually, meaning they could lose coverage more quickly when their circumstances change.

The two provisions together are projected to save the federal government $388 billion over the next decade, resulting in 6 million fewer people with health insurance, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

But states first must update their online portals used by Medicaid participants, their aging computer systems used by state workers and their methods of verifying information through various databases.

Most will have to turn to private contractors to meet the time crunch. At least 10 companies have agreed to offer discounted services, according to the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Making those technology upgrades “is going to be a lift. It’s not something straightforward. It’s not easy,” said Jason Reilly, a partner at Guidehouse, a firm that is advising several states on the Medicaid requirements.

Most states don’t currently collect employment or education information about Medicaid participants. So states are looking to tap into outside sources to verify job and school data. But there’s no database of community volunteers.

And states are still waiting on federal rules — not due until June — to define some of the exceptions to the work requirements, such as how to determine who qualifies as “medically frail.”

States face extra pressure to get it right because the federal government will start penalizing states with too many Medicaid payment errors in October 2029.

FILE – A worker at a Medicaid call center reviews information regarding eligibility determinations on Wednesday Aug. 16, 2023 in Jefferson City, Mo. (AP Photo/David A. Lieb, File)

States will be angling for extra federal money

Congress guaranteed all states a share of the $200 million allotted for Medicaid work and eligibility changes. But states must apply for additional federal money. The federal government covers up to 90% of states’ costs to develop systems for determining Medicaid eligibility, 75% of costs to maintain those systems and half of most other administrative costs.

Missouri won early approval for the 90% federal funding rate. State lawmakers now are fast-tracking a $32 million appropriation needed to solicit bids for vendors to start upgrading technology platforms and improving a chatbot for Medicaid participants. Over the next year, the state’s social services agency expects to need about 120 additional workers — at a cost of $12.5 million — to handle the extra administrative workload.

Other states also project large costs. Maryland expects to spend over $32 million in federal and state funds to implement the Medicaid changes, Kentucky more than $46 million and Colorado over $51 million. Arizona estimates it could cost $65 million — and require 150 additional staff — to implement the new federal requirements.

Some states surveyed by the AP reported even higher expected costs, though they didn’t always provide a breakdown for how much is due to new Medicaid mandates and how much pertains to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program changes also contained in Trump’s big law.

Several states, including Arkansas, said they are still working on cost estimates for the Medicaid changes. Arkansas instituted a Medicaid work requirement in 2018-2019, and thousands of people were dropped from the rolls before a federal court ended it. Many of the technology changes required by the new federal mandates could be covered under an existing vendor contract and have “a minimal financial impact on our Medicaid budget,” the Arkansas Department of Human Services said in an email.

Nebraska has said it plans to launch Medicaid work requirements in May, seven months ahead of the federal deadline. But the state has not detailed any associated costs and did not respond to inquiries from the AP.

Georgia’s work requirement prompts concerns

Georgia is currently the only state requiring some Medicaid recipients to work, after receiving special federal approval several years ago to expand coverage to some adults not otherwise eligible.

FILE – A stand for Georgia Pathways is seen at a job fair in Atlanta, Ga., June 5, 2025. (AP Photo/Sudhin Thanawala, File)

The Georgia Pathways to Coverage program racked up more than $54 million of administrative costs from 2021 through the first part of 2025 — twice the amount of medical assistance paid out over that same period, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. Almost all of those costs came from technology changes to its eligibility and enrollment system.

Some Medicaid analysts point to Georgia’s costs and Arkansas’ enrollment losses as reasons for caution as work requirements roll out in other states.

“A huge amount of funding is going to go to vendors to construct these complicated red-tape systems that prevent people who need it from getting health care,” said Joan Alker, executive director of the Center for Children and Families at Georgetown University. “In my view, that is a big, big risk.”