By SETH BORENSTEIN and ANNIKA HAMMERSCHLAG

Climate change’s rising seas may threaten tens of millions more people than scientists and government planners originally thought because of mistaken research assumptions on how high coastal waters already are, a new study said.

Related Articles

Google behind proposed Hermantown data center

Meet the UMN beaver expert with a ‘Hoppers’ character named for her

With only 3 women left, an Amazon tribe faced extinction. An unexpected birth now brings hope

Shrinking North American bird population is getting worse faster. Experts blame agriculture, warming

Offshore wind triumphs over Trump in court, but future projects face delays

Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments, calculating that about 90% of them underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of 1 foot, according to Wednesday’s study in the journal Nature. It’s a far more frequent problem in the Global South, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and less so in Europe and along Atlantic coasts.

The cause is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured, said study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University & Research in the Netherlands. And he attributed that to a “methodological blind spot” between the different ways those two things are measured.

Each way measures their own areas properly, he said. But where sea meets land, there’s a lot of factors that often don’t get accounted for when satellites and land-based models are used. Studies that calculate sea level rise impact usually “do not look at the actual measured sea level so they used this zero-meter” figure as a starting point, said lead author Katharina Seeger of the University of Padua in Italy. In some places in the Indo-Pacific, it’s close to 3 feet, Minderhoud said.

One simple way to understand that is that many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, when the reality at the water’s edge is of oceans constantly roiled by wind, tides, currents, changing temperatures and things like El Niño, said Minderhoud and Seeger.

Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet — as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century — waters could inundate up to 37% more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said.

That would trigger problems in planning and paying for the impacts of a warming world.

People at risk

“You have a lot of people here for whom the risk of extreme flooding is much higher than people thought,” said Anders Levermann, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany, who wasn’t part of the study. And Southeast Asia, where the study finds the biggest discrepancy, has the most people already threatened by sea level rise, he said.

FILE – Children play on an uprooted tree along a beach in Mele, Vanuatu, July 19, 2025, that was once lined with vegetation, now largely lost to storms, erosion and other environmental pressures. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)

Minderhoud pointed to island nations in that region as an area where the reality of discrepancy hits home.

For 17-year-old climate activist Vepaiamele Trief, the projections aren’t abstract. On her island home in the South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu, the shoreline has visibly retreated within her short lifetime, with beaches eroded, coastal trees uprooted and some homes now barely 3 feet from the sea at high tide. On her grandmother’s island of Ambae, a coastal road from the airport to her village has been rerouted inland because of encroaching water. Graves have been submerged and entire ways of life feel under threat.

“These studies, they aren’t just words on a paper. They aren’t just numbers. They’re people’s actual livelihoods,” she said. “Put yourself in the shoes of our coastal communities — their lives are going to be completely overturned because of sea level rise and climate change.”

Paying attention to the starting point

This new study is pretty much about what is the truth on the ground.

Calculations that may be correct for the seas overall or for the land aren’t quite right at that key intersection point of water and land, Seeger and Minderhoud said. It’s especially true in the Pacific.

FILE – The coastline of Efate Island, Vanuatu is visible on July 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)

“To understand how much higher a piece of land is than the water, you need to know the land elevation and the water elevation. And what this paper says the vast majority of studies have done is to just assume that zero in your land elevation dataset is the level of the water. When in fact, it’s not,” said sea level rise expert Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central. His 2019 study was one of the few the new paper said got it right.

“It’s just the baseline that you start from that people are getting wrong,” said Strauss, who wasn’t part of the research.

Maybe not so bad, some scientists say

Other outside scientists said that Minderhoud and Seeger may be making too much of the problem.

“I think they’re exaggerating the implications for impact studies a bit — the problem is actually well understood, albeit addressed in a way that could probably be improved,” said Gonéri Le Cozannet, a scientist at the French geological survey. Most local planners know their coastal issues and plan accordingly, Rutgers University sea level expert Robert Kopp said.

That’s true in Vietnam in the high-impact area, Minderhoud said. They have an accurate sense of elevation, he said.

FILE – Gravestones sit submerged in water on Pele Island, Vanuatu, a country heavily affected by rising seas July 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Annika Hammerschlag, File)

The findings come as a new UNESCO report warns of major gaps in understanding how much carbon the ocean absorbs. That report said that models differ by 10% to 20% in estimating the size of that carbon sink, raising questions about the accuracy of global climate projections that rely on them.

Together, the studies suggest governments may be planning for coastal and climate risks with an incomplete picture of how the ocean is changing.

“When the ocean comes closer, it takes away more than just the land we used to enjoy,” said Thompson Natuoivi, a climate advocate for Save the Children Vanuatu.

“Sea level rise is not just changing our coastline, it’s changing our lives. We are not talking about the future — we’re talking about the right now.”

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

By MATTHEW PERRONE, AP Health Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, is working to hire a researcher and friend who wants the agency to add new warnings to antidepressants about unproven pregnancy risks, The Associated Press has learned.

Dr. Adam Urato, a maternal-fetal medicine specialist and critic of antidepressant safety, is pressing the FDA to add a boxed warning to SSRIs, the drugs most commonly prescribed for depression. Urato’s petition says the medications can cause pregnancy complications, including miscarriages and fetal brain abnormalities that may lead to autism and other disorders in children.

Related Articles

US maternal deaths fell in 2024 and may have dropped again last year, government data shows

Experts talk how to navigate distressing news stories and finding coping mechanisms

State lawmakers seek restraints on wage garnishment for medical debt

Penguins in party hats? Birthday cards cheer families of babies treated for botulism

Minnesota sues to block Trump administration’s holding back of Medicaid funds

That proposed labeling change has become a top priority for Hoeg, who regularly consults with Urato and is working to bring him on as a full-time FDA employee, according to people familiar with the situation. They spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential FDA matters.

Within the agency, Hoeg’s close relationship with Urato is viewed as a clear conflict of interest that, under normal FDA standards, would result in her recusing herself from any work on the petition. But Hoeg is actively working to speed up the agency’s review of her friend’s proposal, according to the people familiar with the situation.

Outside experts say the petition relies on flimsy data, including animal studies and small trials in people. They fear a new FDA warning could cause pregnant women to stop medication unnecessarily, leading to serious health risks from untreated depression.

“A black box warning is a big red flag with both practitioners and patients,” said Dr. Jennifer Payne, a University of Virginia reproductive psychiatrist. “What’s missing in this petition is an understanding of the risks of maternal mental illness during pregnancy, not just to the woman, but to the pregnancy and ultimately the infant.”

SSRIs include most of the bestselling depression medications, including Prozac, Paxil, Zoloft and their generic equivalents.

More than 15% of U.S. women, or about 26 million people, take medication for depression, according to the latest federal figures. Professional guidelines state that antidepressants are generally safe during pregnancy and should be discontinued only after careful consultation with a doctor.

Last fall, Hoeg gave a talk on the SSRI petition to top FDA drug officials, presenting the work as her own. Staffers who reviewed her slides found they were created by Urato, according to the people who spoke to the AP. The incident was first reported by Stat News.

Urato said in an email Wednesday that Hoeg is “an excellent scientist,” and that they have known each other for several years.

“I am friendly with her, as I am with many colleagues, but we do not have a longstanding personal friendship that would in any way prevent her from reviewing the citizen petition,” Urato said.

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the FDA, said that the agency would respond directly to Urato about his petition.

In January, Urato was named to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s panel on vaccine recommendations, which has been completely reshaped by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to include a number of anti-vaccine voices.

The latest COVID-19 contrarian elevated into FDA’s leadership

The antidepressant review is the latest in a series of controversial topics taken up by Hoeg, a sports medicine physician with no previous government or management experience.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Hoeg attracted attention as a critic of masking, vaccine mandates and other public health measures. She co-wrote papers with medical contrarians who would go on to join the Trump administration, including FDA Commissioner Marty Makary and FDA’s vaccine chief, Dr. Vinay Prasad. All three have become top surrogates for Kennedy.

Before the pandemic, Hoeg had published only a handful of medical papers, including one on health issues affecting ultramarathon runners.

A Danish American citizen and marathon runner, Hoeg was instrumental in the Republican administration’s recent decision to drop a number of vaccine recommendations for children. That is a change she has long proposed, to bring the United States more in line with Denmark.

Like many critics of vaccines, including Kennedy, Hoeg has also been skeptical of antidepressants, questioning their safety and benefits. Last July, she hosted a panel of outside experts at the FDA on SSRIs that included Urato and nine other critics of the drugs.

“Never before in human history have we chemically altered developing babies like this, especially the developing fetal brain, and this is happening without any real public warning,” Urato said at the meeting.

On a podcast shortly afterward, Hoeg echoed many of Urato’s points.

“I think women should be informed about the potential risks so that they have time to come off SSRIs if they want to when they’re trying to get pregnant,” Hoeg told the hosts of the Mom Wars podcast.

FDA officials typically avoid making public comments about matters under review because it could suggest the agency is basing its decision on individual opinions, rather than science.

But Hoeg has taken a hands-on approach to the SSRI petition, telling FDA staffers that their proposed review timeline of nine months needed to be shortened, according to the people familiar with the situation.

Reviewing a citizen petition involves detailed analysis of scientific references, legal issues and a number of other steps to ensure that the agency’s final decision can be defended in court.

“Apart from it serving FDA’s public health mission, there’s always going to be some concern about legal risk if the agency doesn’t take sufficient time to consider all the relevant data and arguments,” said Patti Zettler, a former FDA attorney now at Ohio State University’s law school.

Hoeg was tapped to the lead FDA’s drug center in December, inheriting the job during a period of unprecedented upheaval, including layoffs, buyouts and leadership changes. She is the sixth person to lead the 5,000-person center in the past year.

Staffers did not hear from Hoeg directly until a town hall last month, where she voiced her concerns about the safety of SSRIs and injectable RSV shots for children, a class of drugs that FDA is reviewing at her request. RSV is a respiratory virus that sends thousands of children in the United States to the hospital each year.

Antidepressant questions clouded by other health factors

The safety of antidepressants has been scrutinized for decades, leading to several updates to their FDA label, including the addition of a black box warning about the risk of suicidal behavior in children.

For pregnant women, the current label lists a number of documented safety issues, including risks of excess bleeding after giving birth.

Doctors who treat women with depression say they discuss those risks with their patients, balancing the possible safety issues against the potential harms of relapsing into depression: self-harm, substance abuse and other behaviors that negatively impact women and fetuses.

Researchers who have reviewed Urato’s SSRI petition say many of the studies claiming to show connections to disorders such as autism don’t take into account other important health factors. For example, women with depression have higher rates of smoking, diabetes and family histories of mental illness that can all increase the likelihood of developmental disorders.

“So how do we say that these outcomes are a result of the SSRI when all of these other factors are at play?” said Dr. Amritha Bhat, a University of Washington perinatal psychiatrist.

Bhat and other researchers say they support more research into the effects of SSRIs, and they acknowledge possible downsides to their use.

“But in the meantime we need to provide options to people that are struggling with these symptoms during pregnancy,” she said. “We cannot just ask them to white knuckle their way through it.”

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

LONDON (AP) — Three men suspected of spying for China were arrested Wednesday, London police said. One of the three men is the husband of a lawmaker from the governing Labour Party.

The three allegedly assisted a foreign intelligence service in violation of the National Security Act of 2023, Metropolitan Police said.

Related Articles

The Iran war has upended flights across the Middle East. Here’s what travelers should know

A son of Iran’s late supreme leader is a possible candidate to replace his father as war rages

Supply chain disruptions from the Iran war could raise prices for drugs, electronics and more

Sri Lanka recovers 87 bodies from Iranian warship sunk off its coast by a US submarine

Hegseth says US ‘can’t stop everything’ that Iran fires even as he asserts air dominance

Police did not name the suspects because they haven’t been charged. They said one was a 39-year arrested in London, another was a 68-year-old arrested in Powys, Wales and the third, a 43-year-old, was arrested in Pontyclun, Wales.

With calls growing for one of the three to be named in light of speculation that he was the husband of a lawmaker, Joani Reid, the member of parliament for the Scottish constituency of East Kilbride and Strathaven, issued a statement indicating that her husband was among those arrested while insisting that she herself was not involved.

She did not name her husband David Taylor, who is 39.

“I have never seen anything to make me suspect my husband has broken any law,” she said. “I am not part of my husband’s business activities and neither I nor my children are part of this investigation, and we should not be treated by media organisations as though we are.”

The arrests are the latest in a number of arrests in the U.K. of people accused of spying or causing political interference on behalf of China. The domestic intelligence agency MI5 issued an alert to lawmakers in November warning that Chinese agents were making “targeted and widespread” efforts to recruit and cultivate them using LinkedIn or cover companies.

Beijing has strongly denied those claims, calling them a fabrication and malicious slander.

Signage at the constituency office of Joani Reid at Jacobean House in East Kilbride, Scotland, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (Jane Barlow/PA via AP)

British officials complained to their Chinese counterparts about the latest arrests, Security Minister Dan Jarvis said.

“The Government has been consistent and unambiguous in our assessment that China presents a series of threats to the United Kingdom,” Jarvis said. “We remain deeply concerned by an increasing pattern of covert activity from Chinese state-linked actors targeting U.K. democracy.”

Signage at the constituency office of Joani Reid at Jacobean House in East Kilbride, Scotland, Wednesday, March 4, 2026. (Jane Barlow/PA via AP)

Police do not believe there was an imminent or direct threat to the public related to the arrests, said Cmdr. Helen Flanagan, head of counter terrorism policing in London.

“We have seen a significant increase in our casework relating to national security in recent years, and we continue to work extremely closely with our partners to help keep the country safe and take action to disrupt malign activity where we suspect it,” Flanagan said.

By WYATTE GRANTHAM-PHILIPS, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. and Israel’s joint war against Iran has already upended travel across the Middle East, stranding hundreds of thousands of people. And the future is anything but certain.

Related Articles

A son of Iran’s late supreme leader is a possible candidate to replace his father as war rages

Supply chain disruptions from the Iran war could raise prices for drugs, electronics and more

Sri Lanka recovers 87 bodies from Iranian warship sunk off its coast by a US submarine

Hegseth says US ‘can’t stop everything’ that Iran fires even as he asserts air dominance

Cuba files terrorism charges against suspects over fatal US boat shooting

Experts stress that flights scheduled in the coming days and weeks could continue to see disruptions — causing ripple effects globally, especially as the war widens with retaliatory strikes in the Gulf states. Beyond the Middle East, airports in the Gulf serve as critical hubs connecting travelers going to Europe, Africa and Asia.

Amid airspace closures across the region, many carriers have been forced to either cancel flights or shift to longer routes. That’s straining operating costs and ticket prices, both of which could become more expensive if airlines have to pay more for fuel the longer the war drags on. In the near future, experts recommend postponing unnecessary travel if possible, checking refund or insurance policies and, most importantly, monitoring safety advisories.

“This is not a normal delay story. This is a conflict zone airspace story,” said Hassan Shahidi, president and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation — stressing that halted traffic and guidance from carriers, airports and governments may shift each day, if not by the hour. “Travelers should absolutely expect uncertainty.”

Here’s what travelers should know about upcoming trips.

Monitor advisories and other safety information

Since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks over the weekend, retaliatory strikes and other developments have unfolded rapidly. Iran says more than 1,000 people have been killed in the war so far. For travelers across the region, experts stress the importance of following safety guidance and updates from government officials.

A handful of governments have also issued travel advisories and emergency evacuation orders. The U.S. State Department Monday urged all U.S. citizens to immediately leave Iran and Israel, as well as Qatar, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, the Palestinian territories, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen using any available commercial transportation — and Secretary of State Marco Rubio pleaded for the media to publicize ways to help Americans evacuate. Meanwhile, countries like China, Italy, France and Germany moved to organize evacuation efforts for their citizens.

Experts like Shahidi say travelers should monitor these travel advisories from governments and embassies to make sure they have the latest information. And because so many people are still stranded amid swaths of cancellations and airspace closures, he added that it’s wise to reconsider or rebook upcoming trips, if possible.

“If travel is optional, consider postponing it,” Shahidi said. “But if it’s necessary, then make sure that you get refundable or changeable fares.”

Travelers should also monitor updates from airports and airlines. Long-haul carriers Etihad Airways and Emirates, based in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, along with Doha-based Qatar Airways all temporarily suspended certain routes — citing airspace closures and safety requirements.

Passengers whose flights were canceled wait at the departure terminal of Rafik Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Feb. 28, 2026, as many airlines canceled flights due to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Read the fine print of refunds and insurance

Many airlines are taking refund requests or offering free rebooking — but such options are often limited to specific dates or routes, so it’s important for travelers to check carriers’ individual websites for more information. For future trips, buying refundable tickets now may provide more flexibility.

Beyond what individual airlines can offer, some may also be seeking travel insurance. But it’s important to read the fine print, particularly the exclusions listed under specific policies.

“Acts of war and civil unrest are typically excluded because they’re unpredictable,” said Suzanne Morrow, CEO of travel insurance agency InsureMyTrip. Consumers could still buy coverage for delays, she added, but travel insurance is “designed to make you whole,” and if an airline does everything to rebook you or offers a refund, you may not have an added claim.

Christina Tunnah, of World Nomads Travel Insurance, reiterates that the majority of her firm’s policies excludes coverage for losses resulting from acts of war, although someone might be able to get compensation in certain scenarios — such as if they purchase a “cancel for any reason” plan. Still, the traveler would have to cancel within a certain time frame.

Tunnah adds that once an event is known, it’s unlikely to be covered. So if a consumer has not already purchased traveler insurance, many insurers may have added restrictions to impacted destinations.

Emirates airplanes are parked at the Dubai International Airport after its closure in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

Brace for longer flights and higher ticket prices

Beyond cancellations, many carriers are now taking longer routes to avoid closed airspace. Shahidi noted that includes not only closures stemming from this current war but also previous conflicts worldwide.

Navigating these different conflict zones has become increasingly difficult for airlines, because longer routes can be more expensive. It’s industry standard for carriers to pay “overflight fees” when flying through other countries’ airspace — which there could be more of now. And, of course, longer flights need more fuel.

“Those costs will be passed on to the passengers,” explained Bryan Terry, managing director at Alton Aviation Consultancy. If the conflict continues, he said, travelers should “anticipate that some carriers will likely impose fuel surcharges” or increase existing fees.

Passengers have already reported seeing sky-high ticket prices. Experts say those immediate hikes more likely reflect supply and demand as thousands of flights were canceled in recent days. But the costs of those longer routes — paired with oil prices that have already spiked since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks — could trickle down to consumers further ahead.

The price of crude oil is a key component for jet fuel, which accounted for about 30% of airlines’ operating costs as of 2024, according to research from the International Air Transport Association.

Many routes within the next week are completely sold out or have exorbitant prices for last remaining seats. The market currently shows those costs, while still elevated, are lower for trips booked further out, Terry notes — but, again, if the war drags on or worsens, “those conditions could change at a moment’s notice.”