By JULIA FRANKEL and MICHAEL BIESECKER

JERUSALEM (AP) — Satellite images, expert analysis, a U.S. official and public information released by the U.S. and Israeli militaries suggest an explosion that killed scores of Iranian students at a school was likely caused by U.S. airstrikes that also hit an adjacent compound associated with the regime’s Revolutionary Guard.

The Feb. 28 strike, which had the highest reported civilian death toll since the war began, has come under staunch criticism from the United Nations and human rights monitors. More than 165 people were killed, most of them of children, in the blast during school hours at Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School, according to Iranian state media.

Satellite images taken Wednesday and reviewed by the The Associated Press show most of the school in the city of Minab, some 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) southeast of Tehran, reduced to rubble, a crescent shape punched into its roof. Experts say the tight pattern of the damage visible on the satellite photos is consistent with a targeted airstrike.

Iran has blamed Israel and the United States for the blast. Neither country has accepted responsibility. Asked about the strike at the school at a Pentagon press briefing Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “All I can say is that we’re investigating that. We, of course, never target civilian targets. But we’re taking a look and investigating that.”

Several factors point to a U.S. strike.

One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the U.S. military. According to the Pentagon’s instructions on processes for mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of investigators make an initial determination that the U.S. military may bear culpability. A U.S. official told the AP that the strike was likely U.S. The official spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter.

Another is the location of the school — next to a base of the Revolutionary Guard in Hormozgan Province and close to a barracks for its naval brigade. The U.S. military has focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school.

Israel, which has denied conducting the strike, has focused on areas of Iran closer to Israel and hasn’t reported conducting any strikes south of Isfahan, 800 kilometers (500 miles) away. The U.S. is operating warships in the Arabian Sea, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, within range of the school.

When asked by the AP about its findings, U.S. military Central Command spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said, “It would be inappropriate to comment given the incident is under investigation.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday that she had no updates on the investigation and did not directly answer a question about whether Trump was satisfied with the pace of the probe.

“My assumption is that probably there were some activities recently there and they detected and tracked them, but … they weren’t aware or didn’t have an up-to-date database that a girls’ school was there and they bombed it,” said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran’s military.

Satellite images show damage

The school is adjacent to a walled compound labeled on maps as the Seyyed Al-Shohada Cultural Complex of the Guard, which included a pharmacy, gym and sports field.

In addition to the school, satellite photos show that blasts struck at least five buildings in the Guard compound, leaving the area pocked with craters, charred holes in roofs and piles of rubble.

Iranian online map applications show a living quarters for the Assef Brigades about 150 meters (165 yards) from the school, inside the Revolutionary Guard compound. The 16th Assef Coastal Missile Group is part of the Guard’s navy, Nadimi said. The 1st Naval District, which the Assef Brigades belong to, is responsible for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded passes. The strait has been a particular point of conflict in the war.

In the aftermath of the strike, video from Iran’s state broadcaster verified by the AP using satellite imagery showed dozens of fresh graves dug at a nearby cemetery. Nadimi said it is likely the school taught daughters of Guard personnel.

The strike has drawn wide condemnation from the secretary-general of the United Nations and international human rights groups. The criticism comes amid reports that airstrikes have also hit other schools in Iran.

Targeting schools would be a clear violation of international laws governing armed conflict, said Elise Baker, a senior staff lawyer at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based nonprofit think tank.

“Strikes can only legally target military objectives and combatants, but the school was a civilian object and the students and teachers were civilians,” Baker said. “The school’s proximity to (Guard) facilities and the attendance of children of (Guard) members at the school does not change that conclusion: It was a civilian object.”

Pattern of damage suggests targeted strike

Three experts told the AP the satellite imagery and videos from the scene strongly suggested multiple munitions hit the compound. Complicating any assessment is the lack of images of bomb fragments from the blast. No independent agency has reached the site during the war to investigate.

There are no craters or evidence of bombs hitting in the surrounding neighborhood, suggesting a great degree of accuracy, said Corey Scher, a researcher who uses satellite imagery and radar data to study landscape changes in armed conflict zones.

“All the strikes are clustered within the walled-off compound,” Scher said. “That’s one level of precision at the block level. And then most of the strikes are basically leading to direct hits on buildings. That’s another level of precision.”

Scher said the school and the other buildings struck in the compound showed damage consistent with the use of air-to-surface munitions.

“They didn’t explode in the air above the building,” he said. “It looks like the explosion happened at the time they hit the surface, whether it was the building or the ground.”

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Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance disposal expert, said the available satellite imagery was insufficient to determine exactly what type of munitions were used in the strike, but he said the visible damage was consistent with what would be expected with impacts from multiple 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) high-explosive warheads. He said the multiple precise impacts would undercut any suggestion that a malfunctioning Iranian missile hit the school.

N.R. Jenzen-Jones, the director of Armament Research Services, said the school and Guard compound were targeted with “multiple simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes.” He said in videos of the school taken immediately after the strike, smoke can be seen rising from the Guard compound. There were also impacts on multiple buildings visible in satellite images and media reports citing witnesses who said they heard multiple explosions.

“If indeed it is confirmed that an American or Israeli strike hit the school, there are several potential points of failure in the targeting cycle,” Jenzen-Jones said. “We might be seeing an intelligence failure, likely rather early in the process, which misidentified the target or failed to update a targeting list following the building’s change in use.”

Biesecker reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Konstantin Toropin and Michelle Price in Washington, and Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, contributed to this report.

By PATRICK WHITTLE

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — Maine’s catch of lobsters declined for the fourth straight year, state fishing regulators said Friday, as the industry continued to grapple with soaring business costs, inflation and a changing ocean.

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The haul of lobsters, Maine’s best known export and a key piece of the state’s identity and culture, has declined every year since 2021, and some scientists have cited as a reason warming oceans that spur migration to Canadian waters.

The sector brought in 78.8 million pounds of lobsters in 2025, down from more than 110 million pounds in 2021, regulators said. It was the lowest total since 2008.

Inflation hit the industry hard last year, and there were more than 21,000 fewer fishing trips than in 2024, according to Carl Wilson, commissioner of the Maine Department of Marine Resources. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and a late start to the busy portion of the fishing season also played roles, he said.

“This combination of factors likely contributed to the decline from 2024 to 2025 in the lobster harvest of more than eight million pounds and a decrease in the overall value of more than $75 million,” Wilson said in a statement.

The vast majority of the country’s lobsters are caught in waters off Maine, though they are also trapped elsewhere in New England.

The overall catch, among the most lucrative in the U.S., is frequently worth more than $500 million at the docks each year. Last year it was more than $461 million.

The southern New England lobster fishery has been declared depleted by regulators for years. That decline happened as waters warmed off Rhode Island and southern Massachusetts, and scientists have warned that the trend could be repeating off Maine. The crustaceans are sensitive to changes in temperature, particularly when young but also throughout their lives.

Last year the regulatory Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission said lobster populations have shown “rapid decline in abundance in recent years” in key areas and declared the species to be experiencing overfishing. Environmental groups have called for tighter regulation of the fishery.

FILE – A lobster fishing boat motors out to sea under the dawn sky, Aug. 14, 2024, on Casco Bay in South Portland, Maine. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty, File)

Some members of the industry have pushed back on that assessment and say fishermen are already restricted by regulations meant to conserve the lobsters and save endangered whales.

Last year’s catch was still relatively high compared with historic numbers, up from typically 50 million to 70 million pounds in the 2000s and even less in the decade before that.

The industry saw a boom in the 2010s, when hauls were over 100 million pounds per year, topping out at more than 132 million pounds in 2016.

While prices remained high for both consumers and dealers, the high cost of necessities such as fuel and gear made for “not a very profitable season,” said John Drouin, who fishes out of Cutler.

But it was not all bad news, as lobsters were trapped more consistently than the prior year, said Steve Train, who is based out of Long Island.

“Hauling was more consistent, with less peaks and valleys, and the price was higher in the summer months,” Train said. “But I think I landed a little less.”

Lobsters remain readily available in restaurants and seafood markets, though prices have been high. They typically sold for $3 to $5 per pound at the dock in the 2010s and have been more than $6 per pound in some recent years. Last year the price at the dock was $5.85 per pound.

By DAVID McHUGH

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to allow India to buy Russian oil for 30 days underscores a boost for Moscow’s fortunes against the backdrop of the Iran war as Russia’s oil exports help Kremlin pay for its own war on Ukraine.

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The Treasury Department this week said India can keep buying crude oil and petroleum products from Russia for a month, until April 4.

That measure is aimed at helping ease upward pressure on oil prices that affect gasoline costs for U.S. consumers. But it also underlines how the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is tightening the markets for oil and gas — including Russia’s crude.

A complex mix of oil, tariffs — and 2 wars

China and India became Russia’s biggest customers for oil after Moscow’s full-out invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 provoked a boycott by the European Union, formerly the biggest importer from Russia.

U.S. President Donald Trump had slapped 25% tariffs on India for continuing to purchase Russian oil. Indian oil imports from Russia diminished after Trump dropped the tariff Feb. 6 in return for what he said was a promise to stop buying Russian oil.

On Friday, international benchmark Brent crude rose to $89 per barrel, up from just under $73 a week ago, on the eve of the new war in the Middle East. Russia’s Urals blend export hit $70, up from below $40 as recently as December.

The widening war in Iran and the risk of Iranian drone or missile attacks has shut down almost all tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea passage out of Persian Gulf and the conduit for 20% of the world economy’s oil needs.

Tankers traveling through the strait, which is bordered in the north by Iran, carry oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Now nothing is going through.

Soaring oil prices after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint have meant at least a temporary reversal of fortune for Russia’s fossil fuel revenues.

That revenue had dwindled due to previously weak global prices and tightening Western sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers with obscure ownership used to evade a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven democracies, as well as sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

A welcome waiver

In granting a month’s reprieve to India, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 30-day period would “not provide significant financial benefit” to the Russian government as it only applied to Russian oil stranded on tankers after no customer could be found.

Analysts estimated that could be some 125 million barrels of crude.

“This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Bessent said on X.

Russian oil still trades at a considerable discount to international benchmark Brent. However, Russian crude is now well above the benchmark of $59 per barrel that was assumed in the Russian Finance Ministry’s budget plan for 2026.

Oil and gas tax revenues can amount to 20% to 30% of the Russian federal budget. Tax is based on the price of oil once Russian producers have covered their costs of around $15 per barrel, so a fall in the price can substantially reduce revenue to the government.

Additionally, the halt in production of ship-borne liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by major supplier Qatar — suspended after an Iranian drone strike on Qatar’s largest LNG plant early on in the Iran war — will sharply increase global competition for available cargoes, including those from Russia.

Prices for future delivery of natural gas have soared in Europe, raising questions about the EU’s plans to halt its remaining imports of Russian gas by 2027.

An unpredictable future

Much depends on how long the war with Iran lasts. In the first week, the effects of the conflict that began with the United States and Israel’s Feb. 28 strikes on Iran are widening and now encompass more than a dozen countries.

Oil market analysts say that if it ends within a week or two, oil prices could quickly fall to prewar levels around $65 per barrel and Russia would see little benefit.

However, a longer conflict — one that leaves long-term damage to oil fields, pipelines and terminals in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, and sends oil prices over $100 per barrel — could deliver a lasting windfall to Russia.

Russia had seen state oil and gas revenue fall to a four-year low of 393 billion rubles ($5 billion) in January and the budget shortfall of 1.7 trillion rubles ($21.8 billion) for that month was the biggest on record, according to Finance Ministry figures.

Economic growth has stagnated as massive military spending has leveled off. As oil and gas revenues to the state budget fell, President Vladimir Putin has resorted to tax increases and increased borrowing from compliant domestic banks to keep state finances on an even keel in the fifth year of the war.

Asked about the waiver, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted the increased demand on Russian oil amid the Mideast war and said that “India and China are guided by their national interests, and we do the same.”

“We continue our cooperation, including the energy field and energy trade, with India and China,” Peskov said.

“We note a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the Iran war,” he added. “Russia has been a reliable supplier of oil and gas. It can guarantee all contracted supplies.”

By SOPHIA TAREEN

CHICAGO (AP) — Political printing presses at their busiest in decades. Debate organizers limiting participation due to so many candidates. Constant political ads on television and social media.

The signs that Illinois is having one of its most frenzied primary elections in years are everywhere.

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Congress is on track to see record turnover this year as lawmakers forgo reelection, and in few places is that spate of retirements felt as deeply as in Illinois. Fueled by the retirements of senior members of Congress, six House and Senate seats in the reliably Democratic state are open. That’s offered a rare chance for the party to draw a new crop of candidates — all told, nearly 60 hopefuls are vying for the six seats — and for the winners to help shape the next Democratic caucus. It also has left voters with mounds of homework ahead of the March 17 primary.

“Having all these names and faces thrown at you and trying to remember which one is which, it’s disorientating,” voter James Beatley said.

He’s been represented his entire 21 years by the same Chicago-area congressman, retiring Rep. Danny Davis. Now Beatley has 13 Democrats to choose from. It’s already led to spirited discussions about political fundraising and term limits among other Democrats at the University of Illinois Chicago, a hub of political activity in the nation’s third-largest city where Beatley is a student.

He remains undecided.

Illinois’ big share of House retirements

Illinois represents roughly one-quarter, or five of 21, of all House Democratic retirements and 10% of all House retirements in the country, according to an Associated Press analysis. By one expert’s measure, it’s Illinois’ largest number of open House seats going back at least 70 years.

Currently, five of Illinois’ 17 congressional seats, or approximately 29%, are open. According to University of Illinois political scientist Brian Gaines, the percentage was roughly that high twice in the 1940s, with seven out of Illinois’ then-26 seats open.

Retiring incumbents say it’s time to remake the party in an increasingly divided political environment, despite losing experience.

“Illinois is undergoing tremendous change, and you can kind of feel it,” said the 84-year-old Davis, who was first elected in 1996. “It opens up opportunities for a new generation of leadership.”

Sifting through candidates

The dozens of candidates in the five open Chicago-area House races include 20-something newcomers, lawyers and two former members angling for a comeback. They’ve clashed over funding tied to Israel and disapproval of aggressive immigration enforcement that rocked cities including Chicago.

The most candidates are in the district of Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who’s retiring after 14 terms. Fifteen Democrats include Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, digital creator Kat Abughazaleh and state lawmakers.

Maria Lordots, who’s studying at UIC to be a teacher, will vote in Schakowsky’s district, which includes parts of Chicago’s North Side and suburbs. The 20-year-old has scoured candidate websites but been frustrated by social media.

“You see a few clips, and that sort of influences you to or away from a candidate,” she said. She’s supporting Abughazaleh, because she’s unhappy with establishment Democrats.

Roberto Gomez-Valadez, a 21-year-old UIC student pursuing business, feels her pain.

He’s from a suburb south of Chicago where Rep. Robin Kelly is seeking retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat. There are 10 Democratic candidates in Kelly’s district including state lawmakers and former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., son of the late civil rights leader.

“It’s overwhelming,” said Gomez-Valadez, who plans to vote for state Sen. Robert Peters because he was generous with his time when they met in person. “When there’s so many candidates, overlapping opinions, it’s so much harder to stand out.”

Also running for the Senate is Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, leaving eight Democrats in the primary for his congressional seat, including former Rep. Melissa Bean. There’s another seat left open by Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia’s departure, though the Democratic primary is uncontested after Garcia’s political maneuvering to get his chief of staff on the ballot.

Too many debates to count

Even veterans of the political season are having trouble tracking debates.

The League of Women Voters has sponsored candidate forums for about a century. Its Illinois organizers say this year there are more than double the number of debates than usual.

“It’s usually our schtick, and it’s a thing this time around,” said Roberta Borrino from the League of Women Voters of Illinois.

So many candidates has also meant space and time limitations. Some forums are spread over two days. One group had candidates speak in batches, with one cohort waiting in a separate room while others debated.

At a recent UIC debate for Davis’ district, there was one microphone per three candidates. Candidates got 45 seconds to answer and one rebuttal over two hours.

“You have to get really good at answering questions in barely no time,” said candidate Anabel Mendoza, a 28-year-old immigrant rights organizer. “You get really good at getting to the point.”

Printing presses are buzzing

Some households are seeing mailboxes full of congressional political ads for the first time.

Richard Lewandowski runs a family-owned printing press in Chicago that’s been in business for 50 years. To keep up with the demand for campaign mailers, employees are working seven days a week for up to 12 hours daily.

“You only see a midterm like this once every 20 years,” Lewandowski said.

Adding to the intensity are contested races for the state Legislature and state constitutional officers. Billionaire Gov. JB Pritzker, who’s seeking a third term, has backed his Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton for the Senate.

Elections officials hope for a big turnout

With most Democratic primary winners expected to win outright in November, the stakes are high.

Election officials say they see encouraging signs of a turnaround after 2024 saw the lowest turnout in more than 50 years. Statewide primary turnout two years ago was 19%, according to the Illinois Board of Elections.

In Chicago, more than 43,000 early ballots have been cast by mail and in person with two weeks until the primary. The number is double the roughly 20,000 in the 2022 midterm primary and roughly quadruple the 10,000 in 2018 with the same number of days until the election, according to the Chicago Board of Elections.

“When districts are competitive it does bring additional people to the polls,” board spokesman Max Bever said.

Associated Press reporter Maya Sweedler contributed from Washington.