A referendum on abortion rights in Ohio that will test whether the end of Roe is still potent. A tight battle for control of the Virginia legislature that will send early signals about the suburban vote. Gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Mississippi that will challenge Democrats’ ability to win despite the unpopular Joe Biden.

It’s election night Tuesday in only a handful of states — but the results in those headline contests, and in hundreds of local races, will send strong signals about voter enthusiasm heading into 2024. They’ll also give important clues about the battle for Congress — and inform the way President Joe Biden and his most likely Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, approach the coming months.

Here are five big questions we’ll be watching tonight:

Is abortion still a big winner for Democrats?

The Supreme Court overturning Roe last summer galvanized voters and fueled a series of wins for Democrats in the midterms and special elections over the last year and a half.

Tuesday’s elections will test whether that trend continues to hold. Ohio is the most direct example, where many expect the proposed constitutional amendment to codify abortion rights to pass — the only question is by how big of a margin.

Democrats in just about every race elsewhere have run campaigns focused on abortion, from blue-ish Virginia to battleground Pennsylvania and even red Kentucky.

In the Virginia legislative races, it has been the dominant issue. Democratic television ads mentioned abortion about 2.5 times as frequently as the party’s second most talked about issue, education, according to data from the advertising tracking firm AdImpact. It has similarly been central to the Democratic candidate in the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court race.

But perhaps more surprising has been Kentucky. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and his allies released a series of ads targeting his opponent, state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, for his defense of the state’s near-total ban on abortion, which doesn’t include exemptions for cases of rape or incest. While it wasn’t his main theme in TV ads, it was a notable part of his messaging mix — statewide, not just in urban Kentucky — and should Beshear win on Tuesday, it will only further embolden Democrats to run on abortion next year.

There is one notable counterpunch from Republicans. Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin has rallied candidates there around a 15-week ban with exceptions such as for situations of rape and incest. While stricter than the current state law, Youngkin’s aides believe that their message — Republicans are reasonable, Democrats are the extremists — could at least neutralize the issue.

Is Joe Biden an electoral drag for Democrats?

Biden’s approval rating continues to sink. But will voters punish Democrats for it?

Republicans in Kentucky and Mississippi — where Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is looking to hold off Democrat Brandon Presley, a state public service commissioner and distant cousin of the famous late singer with the same last name — have relentlessly looked to tie the Democratic candidates to the president, who is particularly unpopular in the deep-red states.

The contests are a test of the nationalization of politics — will Biden be a drag to races he isn’t talking about? — and a gut-check on whether Biden’s bad approval ratings are as dangerous for Democrats as they seem on paper, or more of an electoral mirage that suggests some voters are still open to pulling the lever for him, even if they aren’t necessarily happy about it.

Virginia, too, will be a place to watch. Biden is under water there in a state he won by 10 points in 2020, and many of the suburban battleground districts this year are ones Democrats have carried in recent elections — with the notable exception of Youngkin’s 2021 upset.

Will Black voters turn out?

Black voters will be central to the Democratic coalition in 2024. But are they excited to vote?

There have been early warning signs for Democrats that this crucial constituency may not give Biden the support he needs next year. Republicans flipped Louisiana’s governorship in an open-seat race earlier this year, when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry won a surprise outright victory in October instead of having to duke it out in a runoff.

Even acknowledging the fact that the Democratic candidate, Shawn Wilson — who is Black — didn’t get much national support, the loss suggested some level of diminished Black turnout.

Tuesday’s contests will test whether that was an aberration — or Democrats need to hit the panic button.

One particularly important race to watch is the Mississippi governor’s contest. The Magnolia State has the highest proportion of Black residents of any state — roughly 38 percent — and that bloc has historically supported Democrats in statewide contests in a state where voting is very racially polarized.

This, however, is the first gubernatorial election in which a Jim Crow-era system that required candidates to win both the popular vote and a majority of legislative districts — effectively precluding Black voters from being able to elect a governor — won’t be in use.

Presley, who is white, has poured campaign resources into energizing Black voters under the new system, and their response could be telling of the broader political environment, especially for Biden.

Are Republicans actually voting early?

Trump chased Republican voters away from voting early, whether in-person or by mail, by falsely claiming that anything other than Election Day voting was a vector for fraud.

Most GOP campaign operatives agree that was a major tactical blunder. Republicans running this year have changed their tune, but can they actually alter the way Republican voters see it?

Youngkin tried mightily to get Virginia Republicans to reverse course and “secure your vote” — by voting early. With bus tours and targeted advertising, Youngkin pushed Republicans to vote before Election Day.

Preliminary data showed that a larger share of Republicans were voting early in Old Dominion than in past elections. But we won’t know until after the election whether the campaign was successful in expanding the GOP electorate — or merely getting Republicans who were going to vote on Election Day anyway to do so just a bit earlier.

Pennsylvania, too, is worth keeping an eye on. National and local Republicans pushed a “bank your vote” campaign, with the 2023 judicial contest serving as a dry run for 2024.

Are the suburbs still swinging?

Suburbs across America have been the deciding factor for nearly a decade now. What will that look like Tuesday?

Many of the battleground Virginia races are happening in some of its biggest suburbs — outside of Richmond in Henrico County, or Loudoun County in the greater Washington area. Those areas revolted against Trump and other Republicans during his presidency. And while Youngkin won neither in 2021, closing the gap was a big reason he’s in the governor’s mansion now.

Now, seats in those key suburbs will determine whether Youngkin has unified control of government for the last two years of his term — or Democrats are able to claw back power.

Elsewhere, Kentucky’s Beshear needs to maintain the suburban margins that he saw four years ago to have a chance. One place to look: Kenton County, a suburban Cincinnati county that was the largest Trump/Beshear county.

And at the same time, many Democrats are watching Beshear and Presley to see whether they can

In Saturday’s Top 25 college football matchup between Washington and USC, quarterback Caleb Williams — a past Heisman Trophy winner and projected 2024 NFL draft first-round pick — passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns for the Trojans (7-3, 5-2 Pac-12) in the 52-42 loss.

He was strip-sacked late in the second quarter and three plays later, the Huskies went up 35-28 before the half. It was the fifth time in the last six games the Trojans defense gave up at least 40 points.

After the game, Williams, 21, was shown sitting on a railing in the stands and embracing his mother with his face covered by a poster. He was visibly overcome by emotion, likely from the frustration of seeing his conference championship hopes dissipate despite his own best efforts. As he cried in his mother’s arms, the national broadcast cameras stayed there for a minute as ABC announcers Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit, in tones suitable for the situation, provided context to what Williams could be feeling.

Disappointment, while not one of the more fun emotions, is something we all experience. You learn to live with it. Hopefully, you grow from it. But it comes. And sometimes it comes despite how hard we may have worked. It doesn’t come alone and it can bring along any variety of feelings, including but not limited to anger, self-doubt and sadness.

To some viewers, Williams’ vulnerability should’ve been saved for the locker room, far away from the cameras and the eyes of others. While I would agree maybe it wasn’t a time for cameras, Williams should be allowed to cry if he wants to — and so should the rest of us.

Losing sucks. Everyone knows it, from fans to athletes.

Williams transferred to USC after coach Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma to lead the Trojans following the 2021 season. It was a move the QB made because of his relationship with Riley and their desire to win together. In the two seasons since, they haven’t been able to win a Pac-12 conference championship and now their hopes for this year are gone after Saturday’s loss.

Crying is a perfectly normal response to that and while I wasn’t surprised to see those types of reactions, I humbly ask you to reconsider your stance if you don’t think it is.

When a team wins a championship and players cry, no one cares. No one asks them to go do it somewhere else. We simply don’t because we understand the joy of seeing the results of hard work. We understand sometimes people can be so overcome with joy that they cannot contain it, and crying can be an expression of it.

We watch athletes yell, chest bump, chant and cheer as they compete. We should be OK with the other side too. The impact of our passion hits us all in different ways. A good cry can be cathartic, cleansing. Encouraging others, or ourselves, to bottle up feelings and save them for another time keeps us emotionally unintelligent.

As a society, we should have positive responses to seeing other people’s emotions. If Williams’ reaction made you uncomfortable, perhaps that’s something to think about and explore. We should welcome him being comfortable enough with how he feels to let it out in a healthy way. How can we encourage young people to take care of their mental and emotional wellness if we also tell them there is shame in crying?

A few months ago, I wrote about the emotional connection fans have to sports. We would be remiss if we didn’t also acknowledge athletes have those connections as well.

College athletes are playing for their futures. They’re living their dream while chasing another and doing it in front of thousands of fans each week. Fans who sometimes can be awful because of a mistake made on the playing field.

“I want to go home and cuddle with my dog and watch some shows,” Williams said when asked how he felt after yet another big performance wasn’t enough.

“Like, we lost the game,” he added. “I work hard throughout months, years to have big games like this, try and go win and play your best, each and every one of us. We came out with a loss today, so emotionally I want to go home and I want to play with my dog.”

Who among us hasn’t?

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The Chicago Bears lost their seventh game of the season Sunday in New Orleans, coming unraveled late and committing three of their five turnovers in the fourth quarter of a 24-17 loss to the Saints.

Rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent had three interceptions and a lost fumble in the game and no Bears player was able to deliver the game-on-the-line playmaking impact the team has lacked for the past two seasons.

The Bears will now make a quick turnaround before their Week 10 Thursday night home game against the Carolina Panthers.

As the dust settles from Week 9, Tribune writers Dan Wiederer and Colleen Kane sift through four notable topics in “true or false” format.

Kane: True or false? Montez Sweat’s debut as a Bear was encouraging Sunday in New Orleans.

Wiederer: True. The “encouraging” label fits. Officially, Sweat played 41 of the team’s 63 defensive snaps and flashed some of his most valuable gifts. He was credited with a pass defensed in the third quarter when he beat Saints right tackle Ryan Ramczyk around the edge and swatted Derek Carr’s shoulder as he threw, forcing an incompletion and almost getting there early enough to cause a fumble. In the fourth quarter, Sweat’s tackle on a 13-yard Taysom Hill run was H.I.T.S. principle teach tape with the 262-pound defensive end coming from the backside of the play and showcasing his speed to run Hill down from behind and perhaps save a touchdown. For a player who first walked into Halas Hall on Wednesday afternoon, Sweat handled himself well in his first game as a Bear and drew early raves from teammates for fitting in so quickly during such a chaotic and eventful week.

So, yes, this first game was encouraging. But now? With a $98 million contract extension? The Bears need Sweat to be productive. Every week. In fact, he needs to make an impact in every half of every game going forward. He has been rewarded with a star’s salary which now brings expectations that he performs like a star for as long as he’s with the Bears.

Kane: I’m glad you brought up that tackle against Hill because it was quite a play. He ran in a semicircle across the field and then closed with a huge burst over the final 5 yards to take Hill down, the kind of moment that makes you better understand the type of athlete Sweat is. And it was impressive that he and Bears coaches were able to get him ready to go for the game so quickly after just five days.

But you’re absolutely right that there needs to be more ahead. The Bears paid Sweat because they need a playmaker, someone who is going to help them increase their totals of 10 sacks (ranked 32nd in the NFL) and nine takeaways (tied for 24th). The Bears got neither of those Saturday against the Saints and Derek Carr. Sweat, who joins the Bears with 35 1/2 career sacks and nine career forced fumbles, is going to be expected to provide them on a regular basis.

Wiederer: Sticking with a similar topic. True or false? Ryan Poles can feel good about what he accomplished just before and after the trade deadline.

Kane: True. I was of the belief that Poles’ trade of a 2024 second-round pick to obtain Sweat made sense as long as Poles was able to sign Sweat to a long-term deal. And four days after making the trade, Sweat signed his $98 million extension with $73 million guaranteed. Would it have been better if Poles could have signed a player such as Sweat to that contract without giving up a draft pick? Of course. But Poles paid that draft capital to not miss his chance at securing an impact player for one of the Bears’ biggest areas of need, reasoning the market for edge rushers could be depleted by the time free agency hits in March. The Sweat trade was a better decision than the Chase Claypool trade in 2022. Now, whether the contract was worth it is something we have to let play out.

Poles also signed nose tackle Andrew Billings to a two-year, $8.5 million extension last week, a good move to secure a player who has been key to the run defense this year. Because of those two deals, I think Poles can feel good — but maybe not great. The stalled contract negotiations with cornerback Jaylon Johnson are unfortunate, with a disconnect between the two sides. Poles should try his best to fix the situation as soon as he can.

Wiederer: At this point, Johnson may have added incentive to get to the open market of free agency to measure his true value to teams around the league. So it will be interesting to see if the Bears believe in his future enough to sweeten any possible extension offers between now and then.

As you mentioned with Sweat, Poles was certainly determined to get a jump on addressing some of this team’s biggest needs before the 2024 offseason. Hence, the aggressive deal to acquire the standout pass rusher and the massive investment quickly made in Sweat via that four-year contract extension. Poles talks a lot about “moving the needle” and the hope is Sweat is the kind of player who will do just that. Poles calls him a “multiplier” and the contract reward shows faith that Sweat will become a major difference-maker and playmaker. That’s a box checked.

But I’m also careful to offer much more than a nod of approval for these kinds of moves and to keep any celebration urges tempered until a profound impact is truly felt. Think back to the March trade for DJ Moore, which was justifiably lauded for addressing a need with a proven player. But the assessment of that trade also needed to account for some of the roster-building mistakes made — the drafting of Velus Jones Jr. and the trade for Chase Claypool among them — that made the addition of Moore a need-based move for the offense. Moore has been solid through his first two months. But his presence alone hasn’t significantly elevated the offense or the team yet.

Kane: A big-picture question. True or false? The Bears’ inability to regularly beat even middle-tier opponents is telling about the team’s overall direction.

Wiederer: True. Telling and dispiriting. I was in my hotel room Sunday night catching up on all the day’s highlights from around the NFL and it was wild to see so many ordinary or below-average teams having so much fun. The Vikings, who were just 1-4 when they came to Soldier Field last month, somehow stole a 31-28 win in Atlanta — their fourth consecutive victory — with an emergency quarterback in Josh Dobbs who didn’t know his teammates’ names, hadn’t thrown a practice pass to any of his receivers and was teaching his offensive line his cadence on the sidelines during the game. The Washington Commanders, fresh off trading away a handful of key players including Sweat and Chase Young, went to New England and toppled the Patriots. The reeling Raiders, who fired general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniel last week, rallied behind interim coach Antonio Pierce and blasted the Giants to get back to .500 for the season. And those feisty Houston Texans, who foolishly won their way out of the No. 1 overall pick in last season’s finale, improved to 4-4 behind explosive rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. (More on that shortly.)

The Bears, meanwhile? They lost for the 17th time in their last 19 games. Read that again. Seventeen losses in the last 19 games. With stumbles this season against ordinary or below-average teams like the Packers, Buccaneers, Broncos, Vikings, Chargers and Saints, there’s a mountain of evidence to show that this team doesn’t have enough game-changing talent and/or strategic advantages to climb even one level in the NFL’s pecking order. With eight games still remaining, this is another season that is circling the drain far too early. And yes, that’s telling.

Kane: I don’t think you are the only one around Chicago watching all those middle-tier matchups and wondering why the Bears haven’t been able to cash in more often against a weak early-season schedule. It has been a surprise to me that the Bears haven’t at least climbed into this very large tier of average teams this year. With offseason additions like DJ Moore and Tremaine Edmunds and the expected improvement of Justin Fields, I didn’t think the Bears would be on pace for just four wins at the halfway point of the season. The Fields injury has made it harder to ascribe big-picture meaning over the last few weeks though. Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent has looked good at times and also has made too many mistakes, as you might expect from a rookie, and the Bears team around him hasn’t been good enough to help make up for such errors.

But the big question as we consider the direction this team is headed: What will happen when Fields returns? Will he pick up the progress he showed in a couple of games this year and elevate this Bears team? Will his thumb injury hinder him at all as he tries to get back on track? And what if he and the Bears show more inconsistency? You can’t pin the state of this team entirely on Fields, but the answers certainly will play a big part in how the rest of the season plays out.

Wiederer: One more on Poles. True or false? Bryce Young’s early-season struggles for the Panthers validate Poles’ decision to trade away the No. 1 pick last spring.

Kane: False. And I say that for a few reasons but mostly because I think the verdict is not something that can be determined yet. On Sunday, in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Young threw three interceptions, including two pick-sixes to Colts cornerback Kenny Moore. Young has had his struggles while throwing for 1,375 yards and eight touchdowns with seven interceptions, 26 sacks and a 1-6 record. But he still is just seven games into his career and should be given more time to grow and develop. Young also wasn’t the only quarterback Poles could have picked at No. 1. He could have taken C.J. Stroud, whom the Houston Texans selected No. 2 in this year’s draft. Stroud just set NFL rookie records as he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns with a 147.8 passer rating in a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

And there’s even more to consider when evaluating Poles’ decision to stick with quarterback Justin Fields for this season and trade that No. 1 pick for DJ Moore and some draft picks. How will the rest of Fields’ 2023 season play out? What will be the full scope of Moore’s impact in Chicago? What will Poles do with the 2024 first-round pick he acquired from the Panthers in the trade? We are still a long way away from being able to properly evaluate the decision.

Wiederer: It’s hard to disagree with any of that. And we need to watch the quarterback situation play out a little longer to truly know whether the Bears made a sound decision or a significant error. Poles said last winter that he’d have to be “blown away” to draft one of the Class of 2023 quarterbacks and pivot off Fields. And the early March trade with the Panthers cut short the Bears’ evaluation opportunities late in the pre-draft process.

Sticking with Fields made sense given the flashes he showed in 2022 and the guesswork involved in trying to identify potential stars at quarterback in the draft class. But if Fields isn’t part of the team’s plans in 2024 and if Stroud or Young emerge as stars for their respective franchises, the second-guessing will be inevitable.

Stroud’s explosion in the first eight games of his rookie season has been impressive. In eight starts as a rookie, he has already thrown for more yards than Fields did in 15 starts in his second season. He sure looks like the real deal. And when the Bears landed the No. 1 pick for the 2023 draft, they had the ability to choose any player in the class to change the fortunes of their franchise. In short, the moves they made with that No. 1 pick will continue to be judged over time and contextualized properly.

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Each week of the NFL season, The Baltimore Sun will rank all 32 NFL teams. The rankings will take into account not just weekly performance, injuries and roster depth, but how well each team measures up as Super Bowl contenders.

Here are the rankings heading into Week 10:

1. Ravens (7-2, No. 3 last week)

Last week: Win vs. Seahawks, 37-3

Up next: vs. Browns

There isn’t a more complete team than Baltimore. Led by a dominant defense and an MVP-caliber quarterback, the Ravens have completely dismantled two NFC title contenders at home over the past three weeks. Coordinator Mike Macdonald’s defense is playing at a historically high level, getting a combined 16 sacks from Justin Madubuike, Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy and a league-leading six interceptions from safety Geno Stone to pair with the league’s best linebacker tandem in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen and dangerous Swiss Army knife Kyle Hamilton. On offense, the Ravens have the most versatile attack in the league, capable of gashing opponents on the ground with sledgehammer Gus Edwards and breakout star Keaton Mitchell and picking them apart through the air with a ruthlessly efficient Lamar Jackson, who leads the league in completion rate (71.5%) while rushing for 48.9 yards per game, tops among quarterbacks. Time will tell if this promising start will lead to better postseason results, but the Ravens have the look of a potential Super Bowl champion.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-1, No. 1)

Last week: Win vs. Cowboys, 28-23

Up next: Bye

Led by star quarterback Jalen Hurts, there’s a calmness to the Eagles that stands out in close games. Despite trailing 17-14 at halftime with Hurts seemingly hobbled by a lingering knee injury, Philadelphia took control with two straight touchdown drives to open the second half and held on late behind a huge sack from Josh Sweat with 27 seconds left. The Eagles are 5-1 in one-score games this season, and while that’s usually asking for trouble, they’ve proved more than capable of making big plays in big moments.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2, No. 2)

Last week: Win vs. Dolphins, 21-14, in Germany

Up next: Bye

The Chiefs’ first meeting against star wide receiver Tyreek Hill since trading him to Miami highlighted why that deal should be considered a win for Kansas City. While the Chiefs have struggled to replace Hill’s explosiveness, one of the picks they acquired for him turned into cornerback Trent McDuffie, who’s playing at an All-Pro level and forced a fumble by Hill late in the first half Sunday that was returned for what proved to be the decisive touchdown. The Kansas City defense actually outranks its offense (No. 5 vs. No. 6) in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA this season, giving Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes a different kind of weapon in the race for the top seed in the AFC.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, No. 11)

Last week: Win vs. Bills, 24-18

Up next: vs. Texans

That 1-3 start feels like a distant memory, doesn’t it? With Joe Burrow back to playing at an elite level, the Bengals are starting to resemble the Super Bowl contender everyone expected to see this season. The reemergence of wide receiver Tee Higgins (eight catches for 110 yards) and a promising tight end group of Irv Smith Jr., Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson (combined 10 catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo) — not to mention a defense that has few weak spots — creates plenty of optimism about the Bengals’ chances in a loaded AFC.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, No. 6)

Last week: Bye

Up next: vs. 49ers

6. Detroit Lions (6-2, No. 9)

Last week: Bye

Up next: at Chargers

7. San Francisco 49ers (5-3, No. 7)

Last week: Bye

Up next: at Jaguars

8. Miami Dolphins (5-3, No. 4)

Last week: Loss vs. Chiefs, 21-14, in Germany

Up next: Bye

As encouraging as that second-half comeback bid was against Kansas City, the Dolphins have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. That’s telling, particularly during a time when the top teams are starting to separate from the pack. Injuries on the offensive line have made life difficult for Tua Tagovailoa, but he hasn’t looked capable of carrying the team the way an elite quarterback should against top competition. Vic Fangio’s defense has been the bigger disappointment, but a solid performance against Mahomes with cornerback Jalen Ramsey back in the lineup could signal brighter days ahead.

9. Dallas Cowboys (5-3, No. 5)

Last week: Loss vs. Eagles, 28-23

Up next: vs. Giants

Like the Dolphins, the Cowboys continue to come up short in their biggest tests. This time, it was agonizingly close. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker being tackled inches short of a touchdown, Dak Prescott stepping out of bounds on a 2-point conversion attempt, an incomplete pass to Jalen Tolbert on fourth-and-8 in Eagles territory and Prescott’s final pass to CeeDee Lamb short of the goal line on the final play ultimately made the difference. Until the Cowboys start making those plays in big games, they’ll continue to be bridesmaids in the postseason.

10. Buffalo Bills (5-4, No. 8)

Last week: Loss vs. Bengals, 24-18

Up next: vs. Broncos

The Bills are still right in the mix for a playoff spot, but so much more was expected of a team that entered the season with Super Bowl hopes. That 48-20 win over the Dolphins in Week 4 seemed to establish Buffalo as one of the best teams in the AFC, but they’ve followed with alternating wins and losses and have been far from dominant. The emergence of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (10 catches for 81 yards) on Sunday night is encouraging, but there are big questions about a defense that is among the league leaders in missed tackles and has just three takeaways since Week 5.

11. Cleveland Browns (5-3, No. 12)

Last week: Win vs. Cardinals, 27-0

Up next: at Ravens

With Deshaun Watson back from a shoulder injury, the Browns have to be taken seriously. While his performance against Arizona (19-for-30 for 219 yards and 2 TDs; 41.7 QBR) was not exceptional, his ceiling is much higher than P.J. Walker’s. He’ll have to be better to overcome injuries along the offensive line, which lost left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. for at least four weeks to a knee injury and is already without right tackle Jack Conklin. The defense, which ranks No. 1 above the Ravens in DVOA and pitched its first shutout since 2007, gives Cleveland a fighting chance.

12. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3, No. 14)

Last week: Win vs. Titans, 20-16

Up next: vs. Packers

Mike Tomlin has never won NFL Coach of the Year, but this season could change that. There has never been a louder campaign to fire an offensive coordinator than the one aimed at Matt Canada, and yet Pittsburgh is sitting two games above .500. According to the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN Stats & Info, the Steelers are the 34th team in NFL history to be outgained in their first eight games and the only one to have a winning record. Credit Tomlin and the defense for finding a way to keep this team afloat despite injuries to key players and some truly awful offensive performances.

13. Seattle Seahawks (5-3, No. 10)

Last week: Loss vs. Ravens, 37-3

Up next: vs. Commanders

There’s no shame in getting blown out in Baltimore this season, but this recent stretch from quarterback Geno Smith is cause for concern. He’s thrown six interceptions over his past four games and could easily have tossed another one that Hamilton dropped Sunday. The offensive line is doing him no favors, either, with injuries forcing 41-year-old Jason Peters into the lineup and left tackle Charles Cross struggling after a promising rookie season.

14. Los Angeles Chargers (4-4, No. 13)

Last week: Win vs. Jets, 27-6

Up next: vs. Lions

The Chargers have their defense and special teams to thank for Monday night’s win, getting an 87-yard punt return for a touchdown by Derius Davis as well as eight sacks and three turnovers. The offense made plays when it needed to, going 7-for-16 on third down and converting on short fields, but the Chargers only averaged 3.4 yards per play and were extremely fortunate to recover six fumbles. Los Angeles is still a tier below the Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals in the AFC.

15. Houston Texans (4-4, No. 20)

Last week: Win vs. Buccaneers, 39-37

Up next: at Bengals

This team is serious, folks. C.J. Stroud delivered a rookie-record 470 passing yards and five touchdowns Sunday, including the winning 15-yard pass to fellow rookie Tank Dell with six seconds left. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Stroud is the sixth player in NFL history to record at least 450 passing yards, five passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in a game. With a quarterback capable of putting up those kinds of numbers, Houston must be considered a playoff contender.

16. Minnesota Vikings (5-4, No. 18)

Last week: Win vs. Falcons, 31-28

Up next: vs. Saints

Have no fear, Joshua Dobbs is here. With rookie Jaren Hall knocked out of the game with a concussion in the first quarter, Dobbs stepped in and rallied the Vikings to victory just five days after being acquired from the Cardinals at Tuesday’s trade deadline. While all hope seemed lost after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending Achilles tendon injury, Dobbs is more than capable of keeping this hot streak going, which includes five wins in the past six games. If and when wide receiver Justin Jefferson returns from injured reserve, Minnesota could be a dangerous wild-card team.

17. New Orleans Saints (5-4, No. 15)

Last week: Win vs. Bears, 24-17

Up next: at Vikings

The Saints barely got past a bad Bears team starting a backup quarterback, but they’ve reached the midseason point in first place in the NFC South. They can thank a defense that has forced a league-high 18 turnovers, including three interceptions — two by cornerback Paulson Adebo — and two fumble recoveries Sunday. The offense, thanks to a generous sprinkling of quarterback-tight end Taysom Hill, at least looks ready to hold up its end of the bargain.

18. Indianapolis Colts (4-5, No. 24)

Last week: Win vs. Panthers, 27-13

Up next: vs. Patriots in Germany

Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young is going to be having nightmares about Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II, who tied a franchise record by returning two interceptions for touchdowns. Moore fueled a bounce-back performance for the defense, which had allowed 38 points per game during a three-game losing streak. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew has been solid in relief, but the Colts need to see more from running back Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging fewer yards per carry (4.1) than teammate Zack Moss (4.7).

19. New York Jets (4-4, No. 17)

Last week: Loss vs. Chargers, 27-6

Up next: at Raiders

The Jets’ three-game winning streak ended with a thud in what could be a pivotal game for playoff seeding. The defense has been carrying quarterback Zach Wilson all season, but it couldn’t force the turnover it desperately needed to swing Monday night’s game. Wilson throwing 49 times is not a recipe for success, and there was plenty of visible frustration from the offense with missed throws and dropped passes. It feels like another slide is coming.

20. Atlanta Falcons (4-5, No. 16)

Last week: Loss vs. Vikings, 31-28

Up next: at Cardinals

Taylor Heinicke didn’t win his first start in Atlanta, but he showed enough in coach Arthur Smith’s eyes to earn another shot next week after completing 21 of 38 passes for 268 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The lack of touches for running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts remains maddening, however. Tight end Jonnu Smith is a solid veteran, but there’s no reason he should have more catches than Pitts, the No. 4 overall pick in 2021.

21. Denver Broncos (3-5, No. 23)

Last week: Bye

Up next: at Bills

22. Washington Commanders (4-5, No. 25)

Last week: Win vs. Patriots, 20-17

Up next: at Seahawks

Don’t count out the Commanders just yet. While trading away starting defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat signaled a focus on the future, Washington still has a puncher’s chance of climbing into the postseason race after a win in New England. Even if they fall short, the Commanders might have found their quarterback of the future in Sam Howell, who has looked impressive in recent weeks.

23. Tennessee Titans (3-5, No. 19)

Last week: Loss vs. Steelers, 20-16

Up next: at Buccaneers

A banged-up offensive line did him no favors, but rookie quarterback Will Levis looked like he belonged in Thursday night’s loss in Pittsburgh. The second-round pick showed toughness in hanging in the pocket and delivering throws downfield, perhaps earning enough of the coaching staff’s trust to give him the permanent job over Ryan Tannehill.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5, No. 22)

Last week: Loss vs. Texans, 39-37

Up next: vs. Titans

Baker Mayfield’s blank expression on the sideline at the end of Sunday’s loss says it all. A once-promising season has been derailed by four straight losses, the latest coming after a blown 20-10 lead in the second half. A defense that was expected to keep Tampa Bay in the NFC South race was shredded by a rookie quarterback, perhaps signaling it’s time for a rebuild after a few years of going all-in with Tom Brady.

25. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, No. 26)

Last week: Win vs. Giants, 30-6

Up next: vs. Jets

Maybe interim coach Antonio Pierce is exactly who the Raiders needed. It came against a reeling Giants team down to its third-string quarterback, but Sunday’s performance at least creates some hope that Las Vegas can be competitive down the stretch. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell looked solid, and playmakers such as running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers finally showed some life. Given their backloaded schedule, the Raiders could play a large role in the playoff race.

26. Green Bay Packers (3-5, No. 29)

Last week: Win vs. Rams, 20-3

Up next: at Steelers

The Packers ended a four-game losing streak in impressive fashion, outgaining the Rams and backup quarterback Brett Rypien 391-187. The offense looked much better, piling up 184 rushing yards and going 7-for-14 on third down as Jordan Love averaged 8.8 yards per pass. A defense that started a pair of seventh-round picks in cornerback Carrington Valentine and safety Anthony Johnson Jr. also played well. Perhaps this win gives Green Bay some confidence to turn around its season.

27. Los Angeles Rams (3-6, No. 21)

Last week: Loss vs. Packers, 20-3

Up next: Bye

Coach Sean McVay believes quarterback Matthew Stafford will be back after the bye week, but it might be too late to save the season. The Rams looked lifeless on offense against Green Bay, as Rypien finished 13 of 28 for 130 yards with an interception and a fumble. At one point in the first half, he went three straight drives without a completion. That should be impossible with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua running routes and McVay calling the plays.

28. Chicago Bears (2-7, No. 27)

Last week: Loss vs. Saints, 24-17

Up next: vs. Panthers

Backup quarterback Tyson Bagent’s four turnovers were too much to overcome, but the Bears moved the ball pretty well against a good Saints defense, averaging 5.8 yards per play while rushing for 156 yards. When Justin Fields returns, Chicago should at least be able to get a good assessment of what it has in the 2021 first-round pick before deciding on his future with the team.

29. New England Patriots (2-7, No. 28)

Last week: Loss vs. Commanders, 20-17

Up next: vs. Colts in Germany

It’s bizarre to watch a Bill Belichick-coached team struggle so much. Whether it’s a defense that can’t generate any pressure, an offense that’s barely scoring any points (15.0 per game) or a special teams unit that ranks among the worst in the NFL (No. 29 in DVOA), there are problems all over the field. It’s hard to find many bright spots this season.

30. New York Giants (2-7, No. 30)

Last week: Loss vs. Raiders, 30-6

Up next: at Cowboys

A season-ending torn ACL might signal the end of quarterback Daniel Jones’ tenure in New York. While he’s owed a guaranteed $35.5 million in 2024 after signing a new deal in the offseason, the Giants can get out of the deal after next season with $22.2 million in dead money. With Tyrod Taylor on injured reserve, undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito and veteran Matt Barkley are expected to compete for the starting job. With New York likely headed for a top pick in the draft, general manager Joe Schoen and the front office will have an important decision to make.

31. Carolina Panthers (1-7, No. 31)

Last week: Loss vs. Colts, 27-13

Up next: at Bears

If the season ended today, the 2024 first-round pick the Panthers traded to Chicago as part of the package for the 2023 No. 1 overall selection would be No. 2. That’s a steep price to pay for rookie quarterback Bryce Young, who took a major step backward Sunday with three interceptions, including two pick-sixes. While Carolina’s decision seemed like a smart bet at the time, it might have miscalculated how quickly Young and the roster could compete for a playoff spot.

32. Arizona Cardinals (1-8, No. 32)

Last week: Loss vs. Browns, 27-0

Up next: vs. Falcons

Kyler Murray could be on his way back. Coach Jonathan Gannon said the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback will start Sunday “if the week goes well,” and that’s music to the ears of everyone who saw Murray go down with a torn ACL last December. It’s also a bit unsettling, given that Arizona just allowed seven sacks. Regardless, it will be fascinating to see whether Murray looks like the same player who earned a five-year, $230.5 million contract in 2022.

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