Lonnie St. Arnold has been deer hunting up by Brimson, Minn., since 1986, through thick and thin, and lately it’s been nothing but thin.

In an area with among the fewest deer harvested per square mile anywhere in Minnesota, and a region that has been socked with the snowiest string of winters in more than a half-century, St. Arnold and his partners in the Stone Lake Whitetail Club have seen plenty of lean years for deer.

But maybe nothing as bad as this year.

“We were up to Brimson last week (for) some four-wheeling, bird hunting and checking deer sign,” St. Arnold, of Cloquet, reported recently. “We didn’t see a track, deer (pellets), rubs, scrapes … nothing. Don’t think I’ve ever seen it that bad.”

He isn’t alone. Across much of the Arrowhead region, people who have been out in the woods say this may be as few or fewer deer than after the harsh winters of the mid-1990s, or maybe even back to the 1970s, when deer numbers were so low that, in 1971, the DNR canceled the season entirely.

Craig Sterle’s family has been deer hunting north of Duluth for decades. But it’s becoming an effort in futility of late. Sterle notes they have had wolves in their hunting area for 45 years, and had snowy winters before, but still had deer in the past. The problem now, he noted, may be habitat.

“The family has been hunting the Marshall Truck Trail for just shy of a century. Over the years, the hunting has been up and down, much like anywhere else. But we’ve bottomed out recently. There hasn’t been a deer taken in about six years,” said Sterle, of Barnum. “Not that our hunting skills have eroded. There just are no deer. Literally, there are no deer.”

More deer south, and it’s not even close

If there was any sage advice to offer Minnesota deer hunters these days it would be simple: Go south.

Decades ago “up north” is where nearly everyone went deer hunting in Minnesota. Now, all of the top 10-highest deer management areas, based on deer harvested per square mile, are in the southern half of the state — some as high as 7.58 deer harvested per square mile.

Meanwhile, nine out of the 10 worst areas are in Minnesota’s Arrowhead, including the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, two North Shore units and the Brimson-to-Babbitt-area unit — the four worst in the state and all under 0.15 deer harvested per square mile.

The News Tribune analyzed data from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources that clearly shows how Minnesota’s best deer hunting has moved south into agricultural areas where winters are milder, predators are less numerous and nutritious food is plentiful.

An empty buck pole, like this one during the 2022 deer hunting season, has been a more common sight in northeastern Minnesota deer camps in recent years, with fewer deer on the landscape and far fewer deer being shot. (Steve Kuchera / Forum News Service)

The best you can do in the 100-numbered permit areas that cover all of northeastern Minnesota is area 157, west of Hinckley, which ranks 15th highest in the state — out of 130 deer permit areas — at 5.5 deer harvested per square mile.

It becomes very clear where the deep-snow winter dividing line has been over the past decade of heavy snow winters. While areas just 30 miles north of Duluth have among the lowest harvest rates in the state, areas just 30 miles south rank in the top 50-highest harvest.

Area 183, for example, which covers most of Carlton County, ranks 38th highest in the state with 2.86 deer harvested per square mile, while area 159, east of Hinckley, is 33rd best at 3.39 deer per square mile.

Duluth had a record 140 inches of snow last winter, while Two Harbors and Finland were over 150 inches. But not too far south, the Twin Cities saw 89 inches, St. Cloud 88 inches and Rochester just 64 inches of snow — all areas with far more deer.

Perhaps more damaging to deer, areas from Duluth north had 24 inches of snow on the ground from Dec. 15 to April 10, and as much as 3 feet on the ground in March, making it nearly impossible for deer to move freely in the woods. St. Cloud, by comparison, had less than 15 inches of snow on the ground most of the winter and never had more than 18 inches.

“The numbers are pretty clear, and not good, for much of that northeastern area,” said Todd Froberg, big-game program coordinator for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. “But, and I know some people don’t want to hear this, if you scout around, are willing to move your deer stand, you can still find good pockets of deer in places up north. Obviously, if you have ties to a deer camp and don’t want to hunt somewhere else, that’s not what you want to hear.”

The DNR calls it “site fidelity,” when hunters don’t want to move. But, until the northeastern herd rebounds, there isn’t much choice. Unless you don’t mind getting skunked.

“A lot of people want to blame wolves, and, of course, they impact the deer herd, but we had as many wolves and high deer numbers 20 years ago. What we didn’t have was this decade-long string of the snowiest winters. Deer just don’t do well with back-to-back-to-back harsh winters,” Froberg said. “It’s just really hard on them, on production and survival.”

It’s too soon to say whether the trend toward snowier winters is part of a permanent shift pushed by climate change. The DNR, and many hunters, are hoping for a string of low-snow winters as occurred in the late 1990s that led to all-time record-high deer numbers and deer harvests in the northeast in the 2000s.

“They can rebuild quickly,” Froberg said. “If they get the chance.”

Froberg and others are concerned that the lack of deer in northeastern Minnesota will cause even more hunters to simply drop out, a trend that’s already occurring even in places with lots of deer.

“We are already seeing hunter numbers slip as the baby boomers get older and quit. … But now we’re hearing from guys up there that they can’t keep their kids interested in deer hunting when they never see a deer,” Froberg said. “That’s a problem.”

Fewer doe permits, fewer deer shot

The DNR already knows there will be fewer deer shot in the northeast again this year, and that’s the way they want it. Antlerless or doe permits were cut yet again in many areas, and many areas remain bucks-only hunting, as the DNR uses its primary tool — keeping more does alive — to rebuild the herd.

Doe permits available across the 100-numbered deer management areas are down 43% from last year, from 7,625 to 4,325. Kelly Straka, DNR wildlife section leader, has urged all hunters to double-check what deer management area they hunt in to see if restrictions have changed, including requiring doe permits in areas where hunters recently have had the option to shoot any deer.

Statewide, deer numbers are generally expanding in many central and southeastern areas, holding their own in the west and decreasing in the northeast. Some 38 units of 130 statewide saw reduced doe or antlerless permits issued with 80 units the same as in 2022 and 12 units in the central part of the state with more doe permits available.

If you want to shoot a deer in Minnesota head to an area with agricultural crops and your odds will increase exponentially compared to hunting in the deep woods of Northeastern Minnesota. (Matt Gade / Forum News Service)

Because the actual harvest varies widely depending on the weather during the season, many hunters could still bag their bucks if conditions are good, and that might partially make up for fewer doe permits being issued.

But in far-northern Minnesota, there are simply fewer deer out there to be seen or shot.

“I think in your part of the state we need multiple years of mild winters, paired with lower bag limits, for deer populations to recover,” said Barb Keller, big game program specialist for the DNR, earlier this year.

Much of northeastern Minnesota will be bucks-only this year with other areas offering reduced antlerless or doe permits by lottery. The exceptions are the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, where hunters can shoot either a doe or buck, and in the immediate Duluth area, where hunters can again take up to three deer to help reduce the urban and suburban deer population.

Many northern deer management areas saw their available doe permits cut in half or more. In management area 171 south of Grand Rapids, for example, the number of doe permits was cut from 1,500 last year to 250 this year, with doe permits cut from 2,000 to 500 in area 172.

The goal of issuing fewer antlerless permits, DNR officials note, is to leave more does on the landscape to help rebuild the herd for future years.

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Chicago Bears undrafted rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent will try to earn his second win in as many starts Sunday, but this one will be on a bigger stage than his first.

The Bears, winners of two of their last three games, take on the Los Angeles Chargers on “Sunday Night Football” at SoFi Stadium. As kickoff approaches, here’s our snapshot look at the game.

Player in the spotlight

Tyson Bagent

For the second straight week, the undrafted rookie from Division II Shepherd takes the reins in place of quarterback Justin Fields, who is out with a right thumb injury.

And this time, Bagent is going against the worst-ranked passing defense in the league.

The Chargers have allowed 310 passing yards per game and 8.1 passing yards per play, though it should be noted that their slate of six opponents thus far has included three of the best passing offenses in the league in the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings.

Still, a major topic during the week was whether the Bears can get more big plays from Bagent, who completed 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions and a 97.2 passer rating in his debut start.

Getsy praised Bagent’s poise, his ability to run a clean operation and his management of the run game in his first start. But he was asked about getting the vertical passing game going against this defense.

“The Chiefs do that to pretty much everybody,” offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said of explosive plays. “You’ve got to take that out of the picture there. On top of it, you have one of the best pass rushes in the National Football League. You have to take all of that into account as far as where our best matchups (are). Where do we have the best opportunity to go find success?”

Bagent said he will be confident in whatever the Bears ask him to do.

“I think I have a strong arm,” he said. “I’m confident to make any play that’s called.”

Pressing question

Can the Bears defense prove it’s for real?

The Bears defense has made clear progress over the last three games.

The Bears didn’t allow more than 50 rushing yards in any of the games against the Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders. They’ve totaled six takeaways in a three-week span. And they’ve given up 44 total points to the three opposing offenses.

However, two of those teams had major absences. The Vikings were playing without wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the Raiders were playing without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

If the Bears defense wants to prove it can perform against better offenses, the Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert are a good test. Herbert has completed 67% of his passes for 1,592 yards, 10 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 97.1 passer rating. The Chargers offense ranks eighth with 364.2 yards per game.

Herbert threw for a season-high 405 yards against the Vikings in Week 3, but his production has been down the last three games since fracturing his middle finger on his left, non-throwing hand, with no passer rating better than 84.

Still, the Bears know he is a major challenge.

“He’s got one of the strongest arms in the league,” linebackers coach Dave Borgonzi said. “He can make all the throws, in cuts, balls on the sideline. He can make every throw there is. And also, he’s athletic. … He scrambles really effectively and he’s accurate.”

Keep an eye on …

Khalil Mack

The Bears face their old friend for the first time since general manager Ryan Poles traded him to the Chargers in the 2022 offseason.

Mack leads the Chargers with seven sacks this season, but six of them came in an Oct. 1 victory over the Raiders. He also had two forced fumbles that game.

Bears safety Eddie Jackson, who has remained close with Mack since he left the Bears, thinks the edge rusher is going to be geared up for this game, especially given how he played against his former Raiders team.

“He’s ready, man,” Jackson said. “I don’t know if Mack is circling no games on the schedule, but I think Oakland Raiders and here … I don’t want to speak for him, but I think it’s going to be a little personal.”

The Chargers pass rush also includes edge rusher Joey Bosa, who has three sacks, and defensive lineman Morgan Fox, who has five.

It could be a big challenge for the offensive line.

Right tackle Darnell Wright was on the injury report all week with shoulder and toe issues, but he practiced in full Friday and said he is “good to go” for the game. Eberflus said the Bears will not activate left tackle Braxton Jones from injured reserve yet as he works his way back from his neck injury, meaning Larry Borom is likely to again start at left tackle.

Borom called Mack “a handful” and Wright said he will present a different challenge than what he has faced so far this year.

“He’s a really good player, really strong. He has a high motor,” Wright said. “Just the type of explosive player he is (makes him different). He’s speed, power, strong guy, but he’s also a little bit faster than you expect. His leverage is a little bit different because he’s not as tall.”

Safety questions

The Bears listed both of their starting safeties — Jackson and Jaquan Brisker — as questionable for the game.

Jackson has been battling a foot injury since Week 2 but practiced in full Friday. He said “we’re going to see” when asked if he will be good to play.

Jackson said he had multiple tests done on his foot, the same one that he injured last year, and “everything’s intact, everything’s stable.” He described the issue as “wear and tear” and “scar tissue” from the previous injury and said it’s something he has to fight through.

He played 14 snaps against the Vikings but could tell his foot wasn’t ready. He said it has been tough to not contribute to the defense as they try to turn it around from a tough start.

“You get those moments being out of football for so long,” Jackson said. “It’s like you want to go, you want to go push it. It just wasn’t there yet, just needed more time or rest for it to recover.”

Brisker missed practice all week with an illness, though he returned to Halas Hall on Friday. Eberflus said if he’s feeling healthy the Bears would feel comfortable playing him.

“We’ll see what capacity that may be based on how he’s feeling,” Eberflus said. “But we’re going to give him every chance we can to get to the game for sure.”

Injury report

Fields, right guard Nate Davis (ankle) and cornerback Terell Smith (mononucleosis) have been ruled out for the game.

Jackson, Brisker and offensive lineman Dan Feeney (knee) are questionable.

Wright and rookie running back Roschon Johnson (concussion) have been cleared to play, though Eberflus said they were still working through what role Johnson will have.

For the Chargers, tight end Gerald Everett (hip), wide receivers Joshua Palmer (knee) and Jalen Guyton (knee), safety Alohi Gilman (heel), defensive back Deane Leonard (hamstring) and defensive lineman Otito Ogbonnia (knee) are questionable.

Predictions

Brad Biggs (3-4)

It will be interesting to see how Tyson Bagent performs in his second start now that an opponent has some film on him, and perhaps the Chargers plan to make the short passing game more difficult. The Chargers are susceptible to opponents’ passing games and have faced the top three passing offenses in the league — the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings. The weakness of the Bears defense has been defending the pass, and the Chargers have big-armed quarterback Justin Herbert. That seems like a disadvantage for a team that has lost its last six games in the Sunday night time slot.

Chargers 27, Bears 20

Colleen Kane (3-4)

This is a good measuring stick game for the Bears to see if the progress they’ve made in winning two of the last three games is for real. The Chargers are a two-win team with a lot of talent, starting with quarterback Justin Herbert. If the Bears can slow him down, it will go a long way in stating their case that they’ve made a turnaround. Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent hasn’t given anybody many reasons to doubt him yet. He has handled what has been thrown at him with poise. But this test on the road on “Sunday Night Football” with Khalil Mack lurking seems more significant. I don’t know that he and the Bears can pull off their second straight win.

Chargers 24, Bears 20

Dan Wiederer (4-3)

The Bears have been playing a better brand of football this month and are starting to reap the rewards. Still, their two victories have come against quarterbacks Sam Howell and Brian Hoyer. It will be a step up in class Sunday night on the prime-time stage at SoFi Stadium. And Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense will challenge the Bears to keep up. An upset bid hinges on the ability to take care of the ball and limit mistakes. Herbert, though, is too dangerous.

Chargers 27, Bears 23

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Ken Young wasn’t looking to sell, but he finally got an offer he couldn’t turn down.

As a result, the Norfolk Tides, the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate, will change hands for the first time in 30 years.

Young, the team’s president and chief owner since 1993, has agreed to sell the club to Diamond Baseball Holdings, which owns more than 20 minor league baseball teams, the Tides and DBH announced Tuesday.

Young, a longtime food service executive, said the ownership change puts the team in no danger of leaving, adding that the club’s staff will stay put.

“They don’t want to go anyplace,” Young said, referring to DBH. “They know Norfolk’s a good market. The Tides will stay in Norfolk.”

Subject to obtaining the consent of the International League and satisfying other standard closing conditions, the transaction is expected to be completed promptly.

Norfolk is operating under a player development contract with the parent club that runs through 2030. The Tides recently signed a two-year extension to their Harbor Park lease with the city that runs through the 2024 season and is expected to be extended long-term in the coming months.

Young, who declined to disclose terms of the sale, will remain with the club as an advisor and continue to help negotiate the lease extension with the city.

DBH is under the umbrella of Silver Lake, a $101 billion private equity investment firm. Founded in 2021 by media conglomerate Endeavor, DBH owns teams from the low Class A level to Triple-A, including Gwinnett, Memphis, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and St. Paul of the IL.

Tides general manager Joe Gregory said a representative from DBH was in town Tuesday to answer questions from the staff.

“It would’ve been easy to just have a Zoom call and put the staff on,” Gregory said. “But for them to actually fly somebody in here and sit down face to face and talk to everybody, I think, shows their effort and their genuine care that they have for the best interests of the existing staff.”

Young said DBH contacted him about purchasing the team about 18 months ago, when the company began buying several minor league clubs.

“I really wasn’t interested,” Young said. “And they kept coming back and finally got to a point [where] I thought, ‘I need to listen to these guys.’ So that was really how it came about.”

Young, 72, said his decision to sell was driven in part by an aging group of investors in the team, whom he said are “satisfied” with the results of the transaction.

Young also sold the Albuquerque Isotopes, the Triple-A affiliate of the Colorado Rockies, to DBH. The company now owns nearly a third of baseball’s Triple-A franchises, as well as a handful of Double-A teams.

“Looking at what happened with those transactions, team leadership and front office staff stayed in place,” Gregory said. “This seems like a good thing for the team and for Norfolk and the surrounding area.”

The Orioles, who have been affiliated with the Tides since 2007, are on board. In a statement, minor league operations director Kent Qualls thanked Young and the ownership group “for the outstanding partnership over our last 17 seasons in Norfolk,” adding that Baltimore looks forward to a continued affiliation with the city alongside DBH.

Pat Battle and Peter Freund, executive chairman and CEO, respectively, of DBH, expressed their desire for continuity.

“We are thrilled to add this iconic Triple-A franchise to the DBH family and immensely appreciative to be entrusted with continuing Ken’s notable legacy in Norfolk,” they said in a statement. “We are very enthusiastic about the Tides’ future, the incredible staff that is already in place and the continued partnership with the Orioles in the Norfolk community.”

A proposed casino beyond left field at Harbor Park has gone through a handful of false starts, and its future remains unknown. Young, who lives in Tampa, Florida, said the casino project “really has no bearing on this transaction.”

His memories of his time in the city are fond.

“I will say that I loved being in Norfolk and having the team there and the fans and everything else,” Young said. “Just great. A good relationship with the city — all of those things. But it was the right time to do this, and they gave us a good offer.”

Last month, the Tides won their first IL title since 1985. They followed that by winning the Triple-A National Championship Game in Las Vegas.

Norfolk’s roster this season included several of the Orioles’ most highly regarded prospects, including 19-year-old shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top-ranked prospect in all of baseball.

The team’s attendance was the highest it had been since 2008.

“It has been a fantastic year for the Tides, capping off Ken’s legendary ownership tenure,” Gregory said. “The entire staff here thanks Ken for all that he’s done for Norfolk and for minor league baseball.”

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The matchups in the league championship series, which begin Sunday with the Texas Rangers at the Houston Astros in the ALCS, aren’t exactly what MLB had hoped for.

Three teams with 100-plus wins — the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles — all bowed out quickly, leaving baseball with the all-Texas matchup in the ALCS and an NLCS series pitting a rebuilding Arizona Diamondbacks team with no household names against the star-studded Philadelphia Phillies.

A possible repeat of an Astros-Phillies World Series would likely be greeted by yawns. Last year’s matchup was the second-lowest rated World Series in history.

But who knows? It could be riveting baseball, which is something the postseason has lacked in the first two rounds thanks to all the blowouts and sweeps.

Here are five takeaways from the postseason.

1. Obviously the playoff format will be questioned when 3 of the top 4 seeds who had byes are gone.

The long wait for the first postseason series is basically like the All-Star break, and because baseball is a sport that relies on the 162-day grind, any change in routine can be hazardous.

Still, the Orioles proved they were not ready for prime time, the Dodgers trotted out three starters who looked clueless and the Braves couldn’t hit in the clutch. The blame should go to them, not the format.

The only solution is to change the wild-card series to a do-or-die from best-of-three, shortening the rest time for the top seeds. But that would involve losing TV revenue, so don’t look for MLB to do anything that would affect the golden goose.

2. If you are a Chicago White Sox fan, you might have experienced PTSD watching Wednesday’s Dodgers game.

It happened during the third inning of Game 3 of the NLDS . Dodgers starter Lance Lynn served up four home runs in one inning against the Diamondbacks, which never had been accomplished in postseason history.

Lynn served up a major-league leading 44 home runs during the season, including 28 in 21 starts for the White Sox. He last gave up four home runs in a game on July 21 against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field, though at least he spaced them out over two innings.

In September, Lynn told a reporter: “I mean, once you go over 30 (homers), who gives a (bleep)?”

As we discovered in Chicago when the Sox went south, Lynn doesn’t tend to take responsibility for his team’s downfall. He was one of the ringleaders in a bad clubhouse culture, and the Sox were motivated to find someone to take him off their hands. Fortunately the Dodgers were willing to take a risk, which didn’t work out.

It’ll be interesting to see which organization signs him for more of the same in 2024.

3. Bryce Harper can be an unlikeable guy, especially to opposing players.

After Harper was doubled off first base to end Game 2 of the NL Division Series, Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia yelled in the postgame clubhouse, “Ha, ha, attaboy, Harper.”

A few reporters mentioned it in their coverage, with one naming Arcia as the culprit. After Harper homered twice in Game 3, he stared Arcia down as he rounded the bases. Arcia said afterward that Harper “wasn’t supposed to hear it, that’s why we were saying it in the clubhouse.”

That led to MLB Network’s Alanna Rizzo criticizing one of the reporters on “High Heat” for using the comment, calling him a “jackoff” who didn’t deserve a credential and referring to the clubhouse as “sacred space.”

The Baseball Writers Association of America issued a statement saying the reporter was accredited and “to assert otherwise, in vulgar terms, is both unprofessional and unacceptable.” The statement added: “The BBWAA is deeply troubled that the league’s own network would permit the disparaging of one of our members in this fashion. Scrutinizing our work is part of the territory but comments such as these should have no place on MLBN.”

Rizzo eventually apologized to the reporter for her reaction after an outcry from media.

Will MLB discipline someone it employs on its TV network? Do I need to ask?

4. Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy have faced off many times, and the matchup of two future Hall of Fame managers figures to be highlighted on the ALCS telecasts.

Bochy has three World Series rings with the San Francisco Giants, but what I remember most is the 1998 World Series between his San Diego Padres and the New York Yankees. Bochy was pummeled for his decisions and took it gracefully.

“It goes with the territory,” Bochy said then. “I’d love to be in this situation all year, or every year, and let people take shots at me. We’re in the World Series, and when you’re playing in a series like this, every move is going to be scrutinized, and that’s fine.

“People are watching. That shows you people have interest, especially here in San Diego. And for me, I just have to keep going with what I believe and what my gut tells me. Use my instincts. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t.”

It worked more often than not. Bochy’s 49 managerial postseason victories are fifth on the career list, and he has a .598 winning percentage in his nine trips to the playoffs.

5. Joe Maddon once called Nick Castellanos and his family a ‘reality show in the making.’

“People would watch it,” Maddon said as Castellanos sizzled for the Cubs after arriving in a trade in 2019.

Now it’s happening in Philadelphia, with Castellanos becoming the first player with two home runs in back-to-back postseason games. TBS often cut to his son, Liam, who was celebrating wildly in his box seat.

Why didn’t the Cubs re-sign Castellanos, who loved Chicago and wanted to return after the 2019 season?

It’s one of those things that can never really be explained.

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