Texas offensive lineman leaves Gophers recruiting class

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Texas high school offensive lineman Nelson McGuire III backed off his commitment to the Gophers football program on Sunday.

The 6-foot-4, 300-pound, three-star prospect from Midlothian, Texas, who has a handful of offers from southern schools, expressed gratitude to Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck and the U staff, but said reopening his recruiting process was “the best thing for me.”

McGuire gave a verbal commitment to Minnesota during an official visit weekend on June 9. He has since reportedly visited Arkansas and Texas Tech.

The Gophers’ recruiting class for 2025 currently stands at 22 pledges after netting five commitments during an official visit weekend on June 16.

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Real World Economics: Righting the ship when things go awry

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Edward Lotterman

One might not think that Boeing and the Minneapolis Police Department have much in common, but they do.

Both had longstanding unseen negative issues that suddenly exploded into public scandal and internal crisis. Both face difficult and uncertain recoveries.

How each came to these points and how each might recover don’t involve pure economics any more than pure psychology or sociology. Yet all three disciplines study actions and interactions of human beings with insights that bear on current headline problems.

What answers does economics provide?

Economics studies how humans allocate finite resources to meet their needs — as individuals, in businesses and other organizations, or through government. Introductory econ study assumes a simplified model of real life: Choices are made by individuals; decisions of organizations are assumed to directly reflect interests of stakeholders; those of governments reflect the needs of citizens. But these assumptions seldom hold fully true in real life, where randomness can force choices that deviate from academic models.

So what about real life? Let’s start with Boeing.

Forty years ago, when three U.S. companies manufactured jet airliners, Boeing was an undisputed world leader. Its finances were sound even as competitors Douglas and Lockheed struggled. Boeing’s manufacturing was world-leading with excellent quality controls.

Now, Boeing is in crisis. Perhaps this happened gradually, and largely unseen, as a new generation of management took hold. But then came the debacles of two 737 Max crashes caused by near-criminal design errors that collectively killed 346 people, a series of manufacturing faults including a door panel blowing out midflight and whistleblowers listing reprehensible cost-cutting practices and coverups. For many, the first verb in the old saying “If it ain’t Boeing, I ain’t going,” has been changed to “is.” Stakeholders are angry. Some customers research the type of aircraft they are flying before booking a flight. So are investors with shares down by half from five years ago despite markets setting records.

Now consider the Minneapolis Police Department. It long had a good reputation as one cleaner than those in many other big cities. It was generally effective. A spate of murders in 1999 gave the city unwanted national attention as “Murderapolis,” but crime rates declined in parallel with violent crime nationwide.

George Floyd’s killing four years ago blew that apart. While effective and generally corruption free, the department had a long-established internal culture of “thumping” — the beating of some arrestees. Most victims were members of minorities and from lower socio-economic classes. Relations with important communities were fraught with fear and anger. Union intransigence worked to maintain this old-school order. Floyd’s murder brought this perhaps not-so-hidden culture to the fore.

Now the department struggles to cope with rising crime rates, including, again, a spate of murders, including one of its own officers — the first killed on duty in two decades. Like departments in other major cities, it is critically understrength. There is funding for positions, but hiring is extremely difficult.

How would economics compare and contrast the two?

In Econ 101, Boeing’s directors would choose new managers capable of fixing things; Minneapolis elected officials would hire a police chief capable of fixing things. Each would follow stakeholder needs and could hire from an ample pool of qualified people.

In the real world, however, where the interests of stakeholders may not bring consensus, how does new leadership bring troubled organizations back?

Reconstitution and renewal are easier when there is a “going concern.” Strictly speaking, this accounting term describes organizations with stable finances. No serious intrinsic problems threaten going forward. More broadly, going concerns are organizations with staff, technology, procedures and funding to operate. Startups with great inventions, talent or vast funding are not yet going concerns. Nor are ones circling the drain like Donald Trump’s Truth Social.

Crippled organizations like Boeing and the MPD are a different matter.

Consider two examples I experienced in the military. After parachute training in March 1968. I joined an 82nd Airborne Division in turmoil. Five weeks before, in response to the Vietnam War’s jarring Tet offensive, one of its three brigades had moved to Vietnam in five days. Hundreds of those who went had been pulled from two brigades remaining. So I and 54 other newbies joined a depleted company in one shot. The same happened to other companies. Eleven days later, Martin Luther King was assassinated. Despite hundreds of us barely knowing each other, our brigade was now patrolling streets of Washington D.C. Depleted as it was, the 82nd was a going concern, with a cadre of NCOs and officers with decades of experience in packing up and moving out. So getting my platoon to guard a half-looted liquor store and maintain order in our nation’s capital went like clockwork. However, we would have been useless in a Southeast Asian jungle.

Fast forward to 1970 when, after a long detour through Brazil, I joined the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Vietnam. In 1965, as an elite outfit, it had been the first U.S. Army combat unit, as opposed to trainers, sent to Vietnam. But in late 1967, a series of battles in the Central Highlands with hundreds of dead and wounded rendered the brigade ineffective. An OK unit, it was in some combat daily. But politics dictated cycling soldiers through 12 month assignments as individuals. Officers’ careers were enhanced with six months as company leaders and six in staff jobs. Developing unit coherence was impossible.

So are Boeing and the MPD going concerns that can be revived easily? Because of the needs of their stakeholders, neither can be stood down for months or years to retrain and regroup. Airplanes must be delivered, streets patrolled and crimes solved. So how does Boeing regain its historic excellence? How do Minneapolis cops restore public safety while never returning to past unacceptable practices?

At bottom, these knotty questions relate to those posed by economist Adam Smith in 1776. Why do some economies become more successful than others?

Why did Japan and now China and Vietnam make industrial and technological leaps to prosperity while India as yet has not? Why was the Connecticut River valley such a rich source of manufacturing technology and management in the 1800s, or Silicon Valley from the mid-1900s on?

Or consider failures. Why was Argentina so rich by 1910, but stagnant thereafter? Why did Brazil’s automobile sector grow explosively for three decades but never become and export giant — as South Korea’s did? Then why did Brazil’s ag sector, especially soybeans, beef, sugar cane and citrus, grow apace to world market leadership?

We only have partial answers for nations. Broadly educated entire populaces is key, one in which Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China excelled but Brazil and India fell short. So is research and technology development. China now is challenging others to become a world leader in that. Taiwan excels in semiconductors. Brazil’s ag research and extension system is world class.

Well-defined property rights and coherent, uncorrupted legal systems are important. Japan and Taiwan achieved those, Korea is improving, but Brazil and India lag. Xi Jinping’s return to communist central control coupled with rampant corruption threatens China’s dramatic technological successes.

So we have examples of specific economies forging ahead when conditions were right — just as for military units. Ditto for specific businesses or nonprofits. There are cases of police departments and corporations shaking off bad, failed practices.

Not hiring any more former GE executives tutored by “Neutron Jack” Welch, who ultimately drove that company into the ground, is one suggestion for Boeing. Dynamic, unified leadership from the mayor and city council down to patrol leaders can improve sick public safety departments. But sure-fire prescriptions for success remain as elusive at the micro level of corporations and government departments as at the macro level for nations.

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St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at stpaul@edlotterman.com.

Jamelle Bouie: The lazy authoritarianism of Donald Trump

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Donald Trump went to Capitol Hill last week to visit with House Republicans. According to most reports of the meeting, he rambled.

People present told the nonprofit news outlet NOTUS that the former president “treated his meeting as an opportunity to deliver a behind-closed-doors, stream-of-consciousness rant” in which he “tried to settle scores in the House GOP, trashed the city of Milwaukee and took a shot at Nancy Pelosi’s ‘wacko’ daughter.” It was “like talking to your drunk uncle at the family reunion.”

That same week, Trump met with a group of chief executives at the quarterly meeting of the Business Roundtable. Attendees, CNBC reports, were disappointed. “Trump doesn’t know what he’s talking about,” said one executive. Others said that Trump was “remarkably meandering, could not keep a straight thought and was all over the map.”

There is a good chance that by the end of the year, Trump will be president-elect of the United States. And yet with less than five months left before the election, he is no more prepared for a second term than he was for a first. He might even be less prepared: less capable of organizing his thoughts, less able to speak with any coherence and less willing to do or learn anything that might help him overcome his deficiencies.

Everything that made Trump a bad president the first time around promises to make him an even worse one in a second term.

When I say “bad” here, I don’t mean the content of Trump’s agenda, as objectionable as it is, as much as I do his ability to handle the job of chief executive of the United States. In a political culture as obsessed with drama and celebrity as our own, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the presidency is an actual job — one of the most difficult in the world.

“Just a partial list of all that must go right in a presidency starts to stretch the limits of human endeavor,” John Dickerson, a reporter and anchor for CBS News, writes in “The Hardest Job in the World: The American Presidency.”

“A president,” he goes on to say, “needs to pick the right team in a hurry, including a chief of staff who gets the balance of information flow, delegation and gatekeeping just right. The Cabinet needs to be filled with leaders who have autonomy, but not so much ego that they create political disasters. A president must have exquisite fingertip feel for prioritization, communication and political nuance.”

Trump, in his first term, was not equipped to do the work required of him.

As Jonathan Bernstein, a political scientist, notes in a post for his Substack newsletter, Trump “utterly failed” at the “most important thing for presidents to do in order to succeed: collecting information. Trump didn’t read. He didn’t pay attention during briefings. He didn’t care about policy. He didn’t even bother, as far as anyone can tell, to learn the basic rules of the constitutional system.”

It’s not as if we can expect things to be better in a second term. “Everyone makes mistakes and ideally learns from them,” Matthew Yglesias observes in a recent analysis of Trump’s record as president. “As best I can tell, what Trump learned from his term is that he needs to double down on surrounding himself with craven loyalists who won’t contradict him.”

There is an obvious rejoinder here: How is it possible that Trump is both incompetent and a dangerous authoritarian? How can he undermine American democracy when he struggles to manage his administration?

The answer is that this only seems like a contradiction. In truth, these two sides of the former president are easy to reconcile.

Trump’s authoritarian instincts — his refusal to accept, or even learn, the rules of the constitutional system — are a huge part of the reason he struggled in the job of president. They helped produce the chaos of his administration. That, in turn, has led him to want to corrode and strip away those rules and strictures that stand in the way of his desire to impose his will directly, both on the government and the country at large.

As Dickerson writes, “Trump is in rebellion against the presidency. Its traditions get in the way of the quick results he wants. He either sidesteps or flattens obstacles or opponents that irritate him or slow him down.”

By no means is Trump the first president, or even the first Republican president, to abuse the power of the office in an effort to overcome the constitutional limits of the office. We can see something similar with Richard Nixon and Watergate as well as Ronald Reagan and Iran-Contra, when the White House circumvented a congressional prohibition on foreign aid to rebel groups in Nicaragua.

But Trump makes no distinction between himself and the office of the presidency. He is the kind of man who might say, “L’État, c’est moi” if he knew of anything other than his own desires. He has the heart of an absolutist.

For Trump to bend to the presidency, he would have to embark on the impossible task of denying himself the satisfaction of imposing his will on others. And so he has tried to break the presidency instead, to transform a constitutional office defined by its limits into an instrument of his personal authority.

A second term would mean even more of the chaos, corruption, disorder and incompetence that defined his first four years in office. Trump and his more ideologically driven allies and advisers would smash through the constitutional system, in a reckless drive to satisfy their dreams, desires and delusions.

Jamelle Bouie writes a column for the New York Times.

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Readers and writers: Minnesotan’s new collection of stories tackles climate change in imaginative ways

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I also underwent counseling during which I was told about this lunacy specific to the Iqaluit run, which manifested itself as hallucinations — even mass hysteria — featuring one common theme: the bears speak. Not in husky-like complaints but in English, with clear diction and a slight but very strange accent. I was shown film of exit interviews given by the crew of the infamous Marigold immediately after they landed at Ushuaia, conducted in a secure facility. The crew maintained that not only did the bears communicate in English, several bears had acted as Able Seamen, capable of performing routine duties, such as taking on lookout shifts and anchor watch. –– from “Honeymoons in Temporary Locations”

Ashley Shelby’s cat Greta approves of the cover of Shelby’s new story collection, “Honeymoons in Temporary Locations,” which she will launch June 25, 2024, at Moon Palace Books in Minneapolis. (Courtesy of Ashley Shelby)

Experts See Eco-Disaster for These Polar Bears” shouted a headline in the New York Times recently. The story says polar bears in the Southern Hudson Bay, an “indicator species,” could go extinct as early as the 2030s because the sea ice that helps them hunt for food is thinning.

Ashley Shelby (Courtesy of Ashley Shelby)

This doesn’t surprise Minnesotan Ashley Shelby. Her new book, “Honeymoons in Temporary Locations,” begins with polar bears in the story “Muri.” It’s narrated by the captain of an icebreaker bringing the last pod of Baffin Bay polar bears to the coast of Antarctica in an attempt to keep them alive. The bears, who can talk, take over the ship under the leadership of the bear Muri, and turn it back north. They know they will die of starvation but they want to do so in their ancestral home.

“That’s one of the challenges of writing something speculative,” Shelby said of this intersection of fiction and reality. “It takes years to write a book and the speculative becomes documentary. These are strange times, strange and uncanny and hard to make sense of.”

“Honeymoons in Temporary Locations,” a story collection Shelby will launch this week in Minneapolis, is one in the growing category of climate change fiction dubbed Cli-fi. There’s debate in the literary world about whether Cli-fi is a genre or a spin-off of science fiction. Shelby, who worked in New York publishing, feels it’s a “problematic term” that creates barriers for readers to find the work.

“My argument at this point is that Cli-fi is realistic fiction,” she said. “It’s not a term of art; it’s a term of convenience used in publishing, like ‘chick lit.’ I would say to the reader that I acknowledge climate change is not part of your regular thinking and these stories might be weird to you. These are not your traditional stories for the most part, taking you to places you might not have expected or even wanted to go. I want the reader to walk away thinking ‘Wow, that really resonated with me,’ or ‘I hated this book.’ I ask them to think about it.”

Shelby acknowledges she never thought she’d write anything like “Muri,” inspired by Herman Melville’s 1855 novella “Benito Cereno,” about an 18th-century slave revolt on a Spanish slave ship.

Besides talking bears, her book is made up of humorous, horrific, satirical stories told not in the usual narrative style but in imaginative ways — a travel brochure for “impact cruises” of endangered cities, menus (including Saddle of Squirrel in Merlot Sauce), medical patient impact studies, a Support Group for Recently Displaced Millionaires, a podcast titled Climate Crime Files. The only thing that hasn’t changed is bureaucracy, as shown by the story “Federal Eligibility Questionnaire from the Temporary Aid to Climate-Impacted Deserving Poor Benefits Program.”

One unsettling thread is emails from staff of a marketing campaign for Climafeel, a drug in development that treats the disease Solastalgia, a term you will be hearing with increasing frequency as our world literally heats up. Environmental philosopher Glenn Albrecht coined the term in 2005 to describe the specific kind of grief human beings experience as the natural world changes around them, a grief that anticipates a separation while you are still in the place you know you will leave. Or lose.

“Albrecht’s brilliant neologism haunts and disturbs me,” Shelby writes in her acknowledgments. “In these pages I’ve processed his concept by imagining solastalgia into an illness the world tries to cure, a disease to be eliminated, a mental illness to be treated. But grief is not pathological. It’s the inevitable endpoint of love.”

Shelby isn’t surprised therapists are reporting increased anxiety in their clients.

“When I got finished copies of my book I saw this was about solastalgia, written by someone who has it,” she said. “Biophilia (the urge to affiliate with other forms of life) is also a real thing. We have something bone-deep in us that reaches out to the natural world and creatures in it. As we see the connection starting to fray because of what’s happening in the world it impacts our mental health and experience of living in the world. That’s what I am feeling. I am not alone. This is not free-floating depression. Something is happening.”

The last generation

Shelby, 46, lives in an old farmhouse in Shorewood near Lake Minnetonka with her husband, Emmanuel (Manny) Benites, son Hudson, 17, and Josephine, 14, who prefers to be called Joey

Ashley Shelby with her husband, Emmanuel Benites, and her daughter, Josephine. (Courtesy of Ashley Shelby)

On their acre of property Shelby has a garden “with so many little winged things.” Her favorite books growing up were “Watership Down” and “The Incredible Journey,” which gave her access to thoughts and emotions of animals. Now one of the things that bothers her most is “how the blameless fellow creatures are trying to make sense of what climate change is doing to them.”

Ashley’s family lives not far from the Excelsior home of her parents, Don and Barbara Shelby.

“I was born in Texas but I am a Minnesotan through and through,” she says. “My sisters (Lacy and Delta) and I were raised in Minneapolis’ Linden Hills area when it was mixed-income, before it became a wealthy enclave. It’s the place I go to in my mind sometimes and think of the good times. My generation is the last to have free rein, turned out of the house on our bikes, back at dinnertime.”

After graduating from Hopkins High School, Shelby earned a degree in journalism from Indiana University-Bloomington, and an MFA from Columbia University School of the Arts. Her first book, “Red River Rising: The Anatomy of a Flood and the Survival of an American City” (Minnesota Historical Society Press/Borealis Books, 2003), was nonfiction about the historic 1997 flood in Grand Forks, N.D. It is dedicated to Don Shelby, Emmy Award-winning retired WCCO reporter/anchor, who taught Ashley the importance of research and accuracy.

“My dad was a big figure in my life growing up,” she recalls.

Don Shelby, 77, is also an author. His book “The Season Never Ends: Wins, Losses and the Wisdom of the Game” was inspired by his life-long love of basketball. He admitted in a phone chat that he is still feeling “a little grief” after culling about a third of his formerly 10,000-book library. One he definitely kept is “Honeymoons in Temporary Locations.”

“It’s an incredible book. Important stuff, literature that changes minds.” he said. “It’s not dystopian in the sci-fi sense. What would be considered talk of the future ends up being true. Ashley has this Nostradamus piece of her that interests me.”

Ashley Shelby, center, with her husband, Emmanuel Benites, right, and her father, Don Shelby, at Don’s commencement ceremony at Metropolitan State University. (Courtesy of Ashley Shelby)

Shelby takes no credit for Ashley’s writing (“she got her mother’s brains”) but he does credit her growing up in a household watching news and being around her dad’s colleagues including Dave Nimmer, godfather to Ashley and her sisters. The Shelby daughters also saw their dad, who loves the outdoors, introduce environmental/climate change reporting years before anyone took it seriously, with some 800 stories aired on WCCO.

Don Shelby has worked hard at his commitment to the Earth as a volunteer helping mitigate the damage already done by rising temperatures. He participated in a project to reforest the 52-mile Mississippi River National Park that replaced dying or dead ash trees with species more accustomed to the climate farther south because trees are moving north. He has attended a climate change meeting in Oslo presented by the Nobel Peace Prize Committee as well as belonging to Climate Science Rapid Response Team, a match-making service to connect scientists with lawmakers and the media. He also serves on the board of Minnesota-based Climate Generation, which believes in the power of youth to have an impact on the systems perpetuating the climate crisis.

Writing for Beno

After Ashley wrote “Red River Rising,” she turned to fiction with her 2017 comic novel “South Pole Station” (University of Minnesota Press paperback), about a person who joins the National Science Foundation’s Artist & Writers program in Antarctica that becomes the center of global controversy when a fringe scientist claims climate change is a hoax.

“I am not a scientist,” Shelby says. “I wanted to be one but my mind didn’t trend that way. It takes me a lot more reads of scientific material to suck out meaning. Sometimes I wish I were better at science, but I’m glad I am not. I can utilize abstraction and imagination and creativity in a way that scientists cannot do day-to-day.”

After “South Pole Station” was published, Shelby started another book set in the climate-affected world, but it didn’t go well:

“I had difficulty using the tools I’d used for ‘South Pole Station.’ They weren’t up to the task of narrative, framework, characters and dialogue. Now I know it was (because of) my grief at what had happened and what will happen. I started having strange thoughts after reading ‘Benito Cereno,’ Melville’s masterpiece. For some reason, I thought, ‘What if it was bears?’ They are the most salient image used about climate change, a trope we look away from because it’s so upsetting. But I dismissed the idea as too big an ask of the reader, too ridiculous. No one would accept this premise.”

That changed when she started telling a story about talking bears to Beno, her son’s friend.

“He was only 11 years old, but he looked at me seriously, nodding, and said, ‘This is going to be bestseller,’ ” Shelby recalled. “That conversation made me go back to my desk and write ‘Muri.’ I didn’t think I would ever show it to anyone, but I would write it for Beno who saw something in it.”

To Shelby’s surprise, when “Muri” was published as a limited-run chapbook in Radix Media’s Futures: A Science Fiction Series, people not only read it, but it was adopted in university courses teaching climate fiction.

“I am so grateful for the generous readers of speculative fiction who wanted to know more about these bears,” she said. “This filled me with happiness and joy. It allowed me to have the courage to process grief about climate change in a way my brain was telling me I could do it, not with traditional forms but telling the story in your head as you are experiencing it without worrying about narrative form.”

The kids will understand

“This book is written in a way that will appeal to younger people,” Shelby says. “A story about a podcast resonates with them. Marketing documents for a drug resonates with a generation that has come to be suspicious of the pharma industry.”

Shelby’s concern for the confusion in some young people also runs through her stories. She’s writing about the in-between generation, youngsters who never knew the world in which their parents lived. As one character says, “How do you explain to a child who has never experienced the normal contours of spring why many adults preferred death than a world without it?”

“This generation knows things are changing,” Shelby says. She sees the toll climate change takes in her own family.

“My daughter has asthma and has difficulty breathing,” she says. “During soccer season in the summer she has to bring an inhaler and separate medication. Asthma rates are skyrocketing. For my daughter it’s always been like this. My and my dad’s generations don’t see it, but my kids see it clearly and they will understand how to address it in maybe uncomfortable ways. These climate change activists who deface artwork and block traffic are telling us in all different ways ‘this is the future.’ They are relying on us, but the people in power, the ruling class, are foisting this on us, making us feel guilty for using fuel or plastic straws. We are beholden to CEOs who create rocket ships and pay no attention to what they caused. It gets to me. That’s the emotion distilled in these stories..”

In the end, Shelby returns to our longings: “Solastalgia exists because we love Nature, and as long as we still love Nature, there is hope.”

Honeymoons in Temporary Locations

What: Ashley Shelby launches “Honeymoons in Temporary Locations” in conversation with Eric Holthaus, a St. Paul-based leading journalist on all things weather and climate change who has written for the Wall Street Journal, Slate, Grist and The Correspondent, where he currently covers our interconnected relationship with the climate.

When: 6 p.m. Tuesday, June 25

Where: Moon Palace Books, 3032 Minnehaha Ave., Mpls.

Admission: Free (masks required in the store)

Publisher/price: University of Minnesota Press ($22.95)

Information: Moonpalacebooks.com/events

For readers who want to dive into more climate fiction, here are titles that most often appear on reading lists.

“American War,” Omar El Akkad
“Barkskins,” Annie Proulx
“Blackfish City,” Sam J. Miller
“The Drowned World,” J.G. Ballard
“Flight Behavior,” Barbara Kingsolver
“How Beautiful We Were,” Imbolo Mbue
“The Ministry for the Future,” Kim Stanley Robinson
“Parable of the Sower,” Octavia E. Butler
“The Overstory,” Richard Powers
“The Water Knife,” Paolo Bacigalupi
“War Girls,” Tochi Onyebuchi
“The Swan Book,” Alexis Wright
“Tentacle,” Rita Indiana
“Oryx and Crake,” “The Year of the Flood,” “MaddAddam” trilogy, Margaret Atwood

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