President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a dead heat in the three states most likely to decide the presidential election.

A Florida Atlantic University poll released Tuesday found a strikingly close contest, with 46% for Trump and 45% of likely voters for Biden. The candidates are a percentage point or two apart in each state, making the race too close to consider either one the frontrunner.

Almost half the voters polled in those critical swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — believe Trump is guilty of the criminal charges that resulted in his conviction last week on 34 felony counts.

The poll, which started after the jury verdict was announced, found voters are divided — largely based on their political affiliation — about whether Trump should go to prison.

Democrats overwhelmingly think Trump deserves prison time, though one in six said he shouldn’t.

Most Republicans said he doesn’t deserve prison time — but one in seven said Trump should get locked up.

Pollsters also found some respondents who said they would vote for Trump in the fall — but also think he should be imprisoned for the crimes for which he was convicted.

Among voters who said they planned to vote for Trump this fall, 10% said they believe he was guilty of crimes on which a New York jury found him guilty and 7% said he “deserves” prison time for the felony convictions.

Critical states

In the three states together — all northern, industrial states where the population shares many characteristics — Trump has 46% and Biden has 45% of likely voters, FAU pollsters found.

Another 4% said they’d vote for another candidate and 5% said they were undecided.

FAU polled in the three states because they are critical to the outcome of the Biden-Trump contest.

“Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time,” Dukhong Kim, an FAU political scientist, said in a written statement.

All are swing states, and together award 44 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Florida, which awards 30 electoral votes this year, for decades was a swing state that could go for either party, but it’s now become much more Republican.

Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said the contest is so close that the movement of 2 or 3% of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could determine the next president.

In 2020, Biden won the three states by thin margins: Michigan by 2.8%; Pennsylvania by 1.2%; and Wisconsin by less than 1%.

Guilty or not

Close to half (48%) voters surveyed in the three states think Trump was guilty of the crime he was accused of in New York.

Another 38% said he was not guilty and 14% said they didn’t know.

There were some notable differences:

Men were evenly split, with 44% saying he was guilty and 43% saying he wasn’t. Women felt far differently, with 52% declaring him guilty and just 33% saying he wasn’t.
Voters aged 50 and older were more likely than younger voters to say Trump was guilty, 52% to 40%, with 8 percent saying they didn’t know. Among voters under 50, 42% said he was guilty, 35% said he wasn’t. A much higher share (23%) said they didn’t know.
People’s assessments lined up with their political affiliations.

Democrats overwhelmingly (79%) said Trump was guilty and Republicans (66%) overwhelmingly said he wasn’t.

There were those who went against the grain in each party: 12% of Democrats said Trump wasn’t guilty and 18% of Republicans said Trump was guilty.

Republicans were more likely (16%) than Democrats (9%) to say they didn’t know if Trump was guilty as charged.

Among independents, 50% said Trump was guilty, 31% said he wasn’t, and 19% said they didn’t know.

“Trump’s legal jeopardy may be rallying part of his base,” said Wagner, who is co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science. “Most of his supporters don’t believe he’s guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly think he committed crimes.”

Wagner said the 18% of Republicans who believe Trump is guilty is notable. “If they stay home, it could matter in November especially in close states like these.”

Lock him up

Voters were divided over whether Trump “deserves to serve time in prison” for the crimes, with more opposed to incarceration than supporting it.

The poll found 46% of voters said he doesn’t deserve prison time, 40% said he does deserve a prison sentence, and 14% said they didn’t know.

Men strongly opposed (53% to 37%) prison time. Women narrowly favored prison (44% to 40%).

Among Democrats, 70% said he deserves prison time, 17% said he doesn’t, and 13% said they didn’t know.

Among Republicans, 77% said he does not deserve prison time, 15% said he does and 8% said they didn’t know.

Independents were in the middle, with 41% opposing a prison sentence, 36% in support and 23% who didn’t know.

Head-to-head matchup

Across the three states, each candidate had pockets of relative strength and relative weakness:

Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points among women and Trump was ahead by 9 percentage points among men.
Trump was ahead by 8 percentage points among voters aged 18-34. Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points among voters 50 and older.
Among Democrats, 83% said they’d vote for Biden. Among Republicans, 82% said they’d vote for Trump. Independents were evenly split: 41% for Trump and 40% for Biden.

In Michigan, which awards 15 electoral votes, the survey found Biden support from 47% of likely voters and Trump had 46%. (Among a larger sample of all Michigan voters, they were tied at 45%.)

In Pennsylvania, which awards 19 electoral votes, the survey found Trump had 47% to Biden’s 45% among likely voters. (Among the larger sample of all Pennsylvania voters, the poll found Trump was also ahead by 2 percentage points.)

In Wisconsin, which awards 10 electoral votes, Trump had support of 41% of likely voters to 40% for Biden. (Among the larger sample of all Wisconsin voters, Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points.)

RFK Jr.

When voters were given the options of Biden, Trump or the anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent candidate, there wasn’t a significant difference in the outcome.

Taking the three states together, Biden was at 42% among likely voters, Trump at 41%, Kennedy at 8%, with 3% saying they’d vote for another candidate and 6% undecided.

Age makes a big difference. Kennedy had support of 17% of those under age 50 and 3% of those 50 and older.

Partisan affiliation didn’t make much difference in the results. Kennedy had support of 6% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 16% of independent voters.

Issues

Voters in the three states overwhelmingly said the economy (37%) was their most important election issue. Another 18% cited immigration as their No. 1 issue and 15% said abortion. Nothing else was in double digits.

“These battleground states continue to prioritize economic concerns over social issues,” Luzmarina Garcia, an FAU political scientist said in a written analysis. “While the economy is the top matter for voters across party lines, we see a stark split on the second-tier priorities.”

According to the poll, 30% of Trump voters rank immigration as their second-most crucial issue compared to only 5.5% of Biden voters. Conversely, a quarter of Biden supporters cite abortion access as highly important, versus just 5% who backed Trump.

Fine print

The poll of 2,068 adults living in the U.S. was conducted May 30 and 31 — after the guilty verdicts were returned — by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as people in each of the three states, Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

Mary Ellen McIntire and Daniela Altimari | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — A senator’s son battling for renomination while his father battles corruption charges, a crowded Republican race for an open Montana seat and a handful of contests that will help decide which party has control next year all shape the House primaries happening in five states on Tuesday.

The races in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will pick nominees for 22 seats, but in one of those races, an unopposed candidate died last month and a special primary will be held this summer to replace him.

Here’s a rundown of those races and others to watch:

—Menendez in battle for seat

Rep. Rob Menendez, the son of indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, drew a primary challenger after charges against his father were unveiled last year. Now, he’s hoping voters will look past his family name and nominate him for a second term.

He faces Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla as well as businessman Kyle Jasey. Bhalla backed Menendez during his first run for the House two years ago.

Menendez has focused on his record from his first year and a half in the House and less on his father’s alleged criminal conduct. He has support from Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Minority Leader, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and touts that he’s the state’s only Latino serving in the House.

“Rob Menendez does what he says, always fighting for what matters to us,” one ad from Menendez’s campaign says.

Bhalla, meanwhile, has been focusing on his work as Hoboken mayor. In an ad running over the final weekend of the campaign, he didn’t directly address Menendez but said that “On the City Council, we cleaned up corruption,” and said it was time to “return power to the people.”

While the state’s Democratic establishment largely abandoned his father after the indictment, Menendez has held onto most of his support, including from the state’s powerful county chairs. While that infrastructure could still help with turning out voters on Tuesday, Menendez won’t be able to rely on the “county line,” a ballot design that a federal judge ended for the Democratic primary.

Bhalla outraised Menendez as of May 15, bringing in $2 million compared to Menendez’s $1.7 million. But Menendez had more on hand for the final weeks of the campaign. He had $696,000 as of May 15, while Bhalla had $385,000.

Outside groups have come in to assist Menendez. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC spent $486,000 supporting him. The National Association of Realtors PAC spent $62,000 to support his campaign, while BOLD America spent $46,000 and the Turnout Project spent $4,000. BOLD America also spent $310,000 opposing Bhalla.

The winner of Tuesday’s primary is likely to be in Congress next year. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race as Solid Democratic.

—Four GOP seats Democrats hope to flip

Democrats in Iowa are trying to defeat two Republican incumbents.

In the 1st District, the party has united behind former state Rep. Christina Bohannan as its choice to unseat Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.

However, Miller-Meeks faces a primary challenge from fellow Republican David Pautsch, an advertising executive whose son, an Army corporal, was killed in Iraq in 2009.

Miller-Meeks and Bohannan both had about $1.8 million on hand as of mid-May. Pausch had about $6,000.

The race is rated Lean Republican by Inside Elections. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump won the district, which includes most of southeastern Iowa, by 2 percentage points.

In the 3rd District, currently held by GOP freshman Rep. Zach Nunn, Democrats’ hopes rest with Lanon Baccam, the son of refugees from Laos who grew up in rural Iowa and deployed to Afghanistan while serving in the Iowa National Guard. Baccam has the backing of the House Democrats’ campaign arm as well as support the Blue Dog Coalition’s PAC and New Democrat Coalition Action Fund.

But first Baccam must get by fellow Democrat Melissa Vine, a small-business owner and nonprofit official, in Tuesday’s primary.

The race is considered Iowa’s most competitive, and Trump won the district by about half a percentage point. Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican.

Meanwhile, in Montana’s 1st District, Democrat Monica Tranel, a lawyer who twice competed in the Olympics as a member of the U.S. women’s rowing team, is seeking a rematch against Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke. Zinke won their first race by about 3 percentage points.

Tranel has the backing of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, which included her in its red-to-blue program that offers challengers access to additional resources and training. She had about $1.5 million on hand in mid May; Zinke had $2.5 million.

The race is rated Lean Republican and the district is a paler shade of red than the rest of the state. Democratic nominee Joe Biden lost the 1st, which covers a swath of western Montana from Kalispell to Bozeman, by less than 8 percentage points in 2020. (He lost the state as a whole by more than 16 points.)

Tranel does not have a primary, but Zinke will face fellow Republican Mary Todd on Tuesday. Todd, a small business owner, had about $20,000 in her campaign account.

In New Jersey, the 7th District is projected to be the state’s sole competitive House race in November.

Freshman Rep. Thomas H. Kean Jr., faces a primary challenge from perennial candidate Roger Bacon, who in the past has run as a Democrat.

Kean will likely face Democrat Sue Altman, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary, in November. Before launching her campaign, Altman was a progressive organizer who led New Jersey’s Working Families Party.

Altman outraised Kean in the six weeks leading up the primary, but he had $2.5 million in his campaign account on May 15, while Altman had $1.1 million.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to the House GOP, has already invested in the race. spending $75,000 to support Kean and another $10,000 opposing Altman. Inside Elections rates the race as Tilt Republican.

—New Mexico seat is one the GOP wants to flip

A rematch is looming in a battleground district in southern New Mexico, where former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell will try to unseat the Democrat who beat her in 2022, Rep. Gabe Vasquez.

With neither candidate facing a primary challenge, Herrell and Vasquez are already gearing up for November. Vasquez had about $2 million on hand as of mid May, about $1 million more than Herrell.

The House Freedom Fund PAC has already spent $110,000 in support of Herrell, but outside money is expected to pour into the district as the campaign proceeds. When she entered the race in April of 2023, Herrell received the endorsement of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The race in the 2nd District is rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections. Biden won the district by 5.5 points.

—Each party has an open seat with Solid rating

A Republican primary in the open 2nd District in eastern Montana has drawn a crowd of candidates. The seat is currently held by Rep. Matt Rosendale, who ultimately decided not to run after a couple of campaign launches and reversals.

Contenders include state Auditor Troy Downing, who had the largest campaign war chest on May 15 with $435,000; former Rep. Denny Rehberg, who had about $148,000 on hand; and Elsie Arntzen, Montana’s superintendent of public instruction, who had about $66,000.

There are also four candidates running in the Democratic primary: retired pharmaceutical salesperson Ming Cabrera, former state legislator John Driscoll, LGBTQ activist Kevin Hamm and rancher Steve Held.

The race is rated Solid Republican, so the winner of the GOP primary has a strong chance of winning the seat in November.

In New Jersey’s 3rd District, there’s a battle in the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Andy Kim, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for Senate. The five candidates include two members of the state Assembly, Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy.

Conaway, an Air Force veteran and medical doctor, led in fundraising and had $130,000 on hand May 15 for the final weeks of the campaign. Murphy had $33,000.

The other Democrats are civil rights attorney Joe Cohn, teacher Brian Schkeeper and businesswoman Sarah Schoengood.

Four Republicans are also running in their primary. Shirley Maia-Cusick led in fundraising and had $51,000 on May 15. Cardiologist Rajesh Mohran had $35,000 on hand while financial adviser Gregory Sobocinski had $5,000 on hand. A fourth candidate, Michael Faccone, didn’t report raising any money.

Inside Elections rates the race as Solid Democratic.

—Primary redo coming in New Jersey

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. will posthumously win the Democratic primary for the 10th District on Tuesday. No other candidates filed to challenge Payne, and he died last month after the deadline to get on the primary ballot had already passed.

So 10th District voters will pick their nominees to finish Payne’s term in a special primary on July 16. Eleven Democrats are running in the special election, and just one Republican, Carmen Bucco, who is also unopposed in the Republican primary on Tuesday for the term that begins in January. The special election will be held on Sept. 18.

—Johnson a sure thing in South Dakota

No matter what, the next House member from South Dakota’s at-large seat will be named Johnson.

Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson, who chairs the Republican Main Street Caucus, is unopposed in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, Sheryl Johnson, reportedly a former Republican, is running unopposed.

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