By DEE-ANN DURBIN, Associated Press Business Writer

Cocoa prices have fallen nearly 70% since last Valentine’s Day, but that won’t make heart-shaped boxes of chocolate or even chocolate Easter bunnies more affordable this year.

FILE – A man passes a Fannie May chocolate shop in downtown Chicago on Valentine’s Day, Feb. 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Chocolate prices at U.S. retail stores rose 14% between Jan. 1 and the first week of February compared to the same period last year, according to market research company Datasembly. That’s on top of a 7.8% increase for the same period in 2025.

Europe has seen even steeper price increases. In Germany, chocolate prices rose 18.9% in 2025, according to government figures.

Here’s what caused the price of cocoa futures to rise and then fall — and why that may not be reflected in the prices customers are paying.

Cocoa, climate and cost

Cocoa prices more than doubled in 2024 due to insufficient rainfall and crop diseases in West Africa, which supplies more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. Cocoa, which is made from the dried beans of the cacao tree, is the main ingredient in both dark and white chocolate.

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Weather conditions have improved since then in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and cocoa production is increasing in Ecuador and other countries, according to an analysis by J.P. Morgan. The resulting supply increase is one reason cocoa prices are coming down.

But they’re also dropping because of lower global demand. Chocolate getting more expensive has turned off consumers, so manufacturers have cut the amount of chocolate they use or shifted to other products like gummy candies to keep prices in check, said Chris Costagli, a food thought leader at the market research company NIQ.

In the U.S., annual retail sales of chocolate rose 6.7% in 2025 compared to the prior year, largely because of price increases, according to NIQ data. But the number of individual products sold was down 1.3%, as consumers bought less chocolate overall.

Tariffs on treats

The Trump administration’s tariffs were another reason U.S. chocolate prices increased last year.

The administration put a tariff averaging 15% on cocoa-producing countries last February, which raised the price of U.S. cocoa imports, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In November, the administration removed tariffs on cocoa and other commodities that can’t be grown in the U.S., including coffee, spices and tropical fruit.

But tariffs of 15% or more on products from the European Union, including chocolates, remain in place.

What goes up… may stay up

So far, declining cocoa prices haven’t necessarily let chocolate lovers pay less.

Costagli compares the situation to gas prices. Even when the cost of oil goes down, prices at the pump don’t immediately follow because companies need to use up the oil they bought at a higher price.

Chocolate makers like The Hershey Co. have long-term contracts that may require them to pay more than current cocoa prices. The market also is volatile; companies know that another bout of poor weather or a surge in demand could make cocoa prices surge again.

But Costagli said companies also watch shoppers’ reaction to prices.

“If the customer is still willing to pay that higher price point, do we really take the price down?” he said.

Mondelez International, which owns chocolate brands like Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone, raised its prices by 8% globally in 2025 to counter higher cocoa costs.

In Europe, the company hiked prices by even more and saw a significant decrease in the amount of its products sold. As a result, Mondelez lowered prices this year in some markets, including the United Kingdom and Germany.

“We have learned that certain price points are very important, and so we have adjusted already to put our products at the right price point,” Mondelez Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put said during a February conference call with investors.

Van de Put said Mondelez didn’t plan immediate price cuts in North America, where both its price increases and its sales volume losses were more moderate.

Trading up … or down

Two segments of the chocolate market grew in the U.S. last year: value brands and super-premium brands, Costagli said.

The expanded interest in higher-end chocolate may seem surprising if consumers balked at paying more for a Snickers bar or a pack of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups. But the companies behind super-premium lines like Ferrero Rocher, Justin’s and Lindt Excellence were less aggressive about instituting cocoa-related price increases since their products already were more expensive, Costagli said.

As mainstream chocolate makers like Hershey and Mars raised prices, some customers decided they’d just spend a little more, he said.

“It’s given the aspirational shopper that little push they need to trade up. If they wanted a better product, if they wanted better experience, better product characteristics, organic, fair trade, whatever it might be,” Costagli said.

On the flip side, value brands — think Whitman’s or some store-brand chocolates — also sold more products in the U.S. last year as price-conscious shoppers traded down from mainstream brands.

“The savings you get by trading down is actually greater than it used to be,” Costagli said. “So from an aspirational perspective, it’s easier to trade up, and from a financially insecure perspective, it saves you more to trade down.”

With Valentine’s Day on the way, it’s time to start planning your food and beverage-based wooing strategies — and for many, that involves two quintessential symbols of romance: chocolate and wine. But how do you make sure you pick the right wine and chocolate to pair together?

We asked two experts to weigh in: Jennifer Sahara, winemaker and owner at Sakura Winery, and Larissa Milano, owner of Bluebirds Chocolate, both based in Livermore, California. They’d just personally tested the wine and chocolate combinations they planned to share with the participants of a class.

“The number one thing I always tell people is to either go to a higher-end shop or go to a chocolatier, if possible,” Milano says. People should also look for chocolate that has cocoa butter listed in the ingredients, she says.

When it comes to pairing chocolate with white wines, look for a milk chocolate, and consider picking a buttery white wine to marry with a nutty chocolate, since the fattiness in the nuts plays well with the buttery notes, she says. For rosé wines, white chocolate with strawberry or fruity notes makes for a great combination.

And for red wines, lighter reds can work well with both milk and dark chocolate. However, she says, people should be careful about mixing bolder, stronger red wines with bold, dark chocolate, because both contain tannins, which can be bitter. Opting instead to pair a bold red wine with a sweeter chocolate provides a better flavor balance, she says.

That approach fits with Sahara’s pairing strategy as a wine expert.

“With wine, there’s the contrasting pairing, and then there’s the complementary. When they’re both bold, doing the contrasting one is good — it brings out something in both things,” Sahara says.

Specific pairings they’d just tested out — and readily approved — included a pinot grigio with milk chocolate and pistachio, petite verdot rosé with white chocolate and strawberry ganache, and a late-harvest tempranillo — a dessert wine that’s not quite as sweet as port, she says. Because the wine is on the sweet side, it can be paired with a dark chocolate that’s not quite as sweet — like a 70% cacao chocolate, she says.

Additionally, spicy chocolates tend to go well with earthy, peppery wines. “It really complements and adds to the complexity of the wine,” Sahara says.

At Bluebirds Chocolate in Livermore, owner Larissa Milano prepares an array of chocolates, including a wine-pairing bonbon box, which includes milk pistachio, double dark raspberry, dark cherry pistachio, dark almond and dark ganache flavors. Done right, combining the right bite with the right wine is evocative of the scene in “Ratatouille” in which Remy creates sensory magic by combining different flavors into one mouthful, she explains. “You can see and feel the marrying of the flavors, and it’s a really cool experience.”

“We pair food and wine so much,” she adds, “chocolate sometimes gets missed. I would love for more people to play with different types of chocolate and wine.”

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By MEG KINNARD, Associated Press

Another shutdown for parts of the federal government is expected this weekend as lawmakers debate new restrictions on President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda.

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Funding for the Department of Homeland Security is set to expire Saturday. Democrats say they won’t help approve more funding until new restrictions are placed on federal immigration operations after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minneapolis last month.

The White House has been negotiating with the Democrats, but the two sides failed to reach a deal by the end of the week, guaranteeing that funding for the department will lapse.

Unlike the record 43-day shutdown last fall, the closures will be narrowly confined, as only agencies under the DHS umbrella — like Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection — will be affected. Still, depending on how long the shutdown lasts, some federal workers could begin to miss paychecks and services like airport screening could suffer if the shutdown drags on for weeks.

Why is a Homeland Security shutdown happening?

Essentially, it’s because Trump acquiesced to Democrats’ request that Homeland Security funding be stripped from a broader spending package to allow more time for negotiation over demands for changes to immigration enforcement, like a code of conduct for federal agents and a requirement that officers show identification. Homeland Security was temporarily funded only through Feb. 13.

The rest of the federal government is funded through Sept. 30. That means most federal programs are unaffected by the latest shutdown, including food assistance, and pay for most federal workers and for service members will continue uninterrupted.

What agencies are impacted?

The funding lapse affects the Department of Homeland Security and its constellation of agencies, including U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Secret Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

At the Transportation Security Administration, about 95% of employees are deemed essential. They will continue to scan passengers and their bags at the nation’s commercial airports. But they will work without pay until the funding lapse is resolved.

A TSA official warned in testimony to Congress that employees may begin calling out sick or taking unscheduled absences as the shutdown progresses, which could lead to longer wait times for passengers to get through airport security and board their plane. Many TSA workers already faced financial stress last year.

“Some are just now recovering from the financial impact of the 43-day shutdown” said Ha Nguyen McNeill, a senior official performing the duties of TSA administrator. “Many are still reeling from it.”

The vast majority of employees at the Secret Service and U.S. Coast Guard will continue their work, though they could also miss a paycheck depending upon the shutdown’s length.

At the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the shutdown will disrupt the agency’s ability to reimburse states for disaster relief costs. Some workers will be furloughed, limiting the agency’s ability to coordinate with state and local partners, and training for first responders at the National Disaster and Emergency Management University in Maryland will be disrupted.

Republicans have pointed out that the work of ICE and CBP will mostly continue unabated during a shutdown, despite Democratic demands for changes at those agencies.

That’s because Trump’s tax and spending cut bill passed by Republicans last year provided ICE with about $75 billion and CBP with about $65 billion, money those agencies can continue to tap for Trump’s deportation operations.

What is the impact on workers?

It’s up to each federal agency to designate which of its employees are “essential” or “excepted,” both of which mean the same thing in this case. They keep working during a shutdown, typically without getting paid until government funding is back in place.

Some examples of “essential” employees are military personnel, security screeners at airports and law enforcement officers. There can be a wide range, from positions deemed critical for public safety to those authorized by law to continue even without new funding.

Most of the more than 270,000 people employed by Homeland Security are deemed essential, meaning that they stay on the job even during a shutdown. For the fall 2025 shutdown, more than 258,000 DHS employees were in that category, and about 22,000 — or 5% of the agency’s total employee base — were furloughed.

Lawmakers have been particularly concerned about the potential impact on the TSA and airports.

Senate Republican Leader John Thune has warned that “there’s a very good chance we could see more travel problems” similar to last year’s shutdown. As staffing shortages grow, airports may reduce the number of open security lanes or close checkpoints altogether to relieve pressure on an already strained workforce.

During last year’s lapse in funding, unpaid TSA workers increasingly called in sick or stayed home as missed paychecks made it harder for workers to cover basic expenses. The strain was visible on the ground: About a month into the shutdown, TSA closed two checkpoints at Philadelphia International Airport.

“The longer the shutdown goes on, the more severe the impact on our TSA workforce,” the agency said at the time.

Associated Press writers Rio Yamat and Kevin Freking contributed to this report.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani pledged to expand eligibility for city housing vouchers according to City Council laws that his predecessor failed to implement. Faced with steep fiscal challenges, he said the city is now pursuing a settlement that balances housing needs and budget sustainability.

Mayor Mamdani speaking to reporters on Thursday. (Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office)

The Mamdani administration is backtracking on a campaign commitment to expand eligibility for the city’s housing voucher program.

Advocates have been calling for the new mayor to implement an expansion of the City Fighting Homelessness and Eviction Prevention Supplement (CityFHEPS) program that would enable people with higher incomes and people facing eviction to get rental subsidies.

The City Council passed the expansion in 2023, only for former Mayor Eric Adams to refuse to implement it. The Council then sued. Mamdani pledged to drop the suit during his campaign.

But facing a budget deficit, the expansion’s future became cloudy last month, as City Limits reported. On Thursday, the administration said it was pursuing a settlement in the case, rather than dropping it, as Mamdani had pledged while running for office.

“We got the promise of how this is going to be a new era in City Hall and in New York City, but it feels like the mayor is replicating similar failures from previous administrations in not really being bold and centering solutions … that can actually help us put a dent on the mass homelessness crisis,” said Adolfo Abreu, housing campaigns director at VOCAL-NY, a group that organizes with people in shelters.

The Mamdani administration is feeling the pressure of balancing its first budget, which has a $7 billion deficit. CityFHEPS currently serves over 65,000 households—making it the second largest voucher program in the country. Its budget soared to $1.25 billion last fiscal year, a five-fold increase since 2021. 

Comptroller Mark Levine estimated that implementing the Council’s expansion would increase the budget deficit by $6 to $20 billion in the next five years.

“Right now we are pursuing a settlement in this case and that is a pursuit that looks to both prevent homelessness in our city while also delivering a budget that is not just responsible, but also sustainable,” said Mayor Mamdani in response to a question about the expansion Thursday morning.

Under the program, voucher holders—usually people leaving city homeless shelters—pay 30 percent of their income in rent, with the voucher covering the remainder. Supporters say the expansion would help prevent homelessness before it starts and move vulnerable New Yorkers into housing.

The appeals court ruled that the mayor had to implement the expansion (a move Mamdani applauded at the time), only for the Adams administration to appeal it again.

Christine Quinn, CEO of Women in Need (WIN), which operates homeless shelters for families with children, was optimistic about Mamdani’s stance on vouchers when she spoke with City Limits a few weeks ago. She was disappointed to see the mayor walking it back.

“CityFHEPS is a proven program that has allowed thousands of New Yorkers to leave shelter for good. Amid a persistent homelessness crisis, we are asking Mayor Mamdani to honor his promise to drop the City’s legal challenge to CityFHEPS expansion and to provide a clear timeline for seeing this expansion through,” said Quinn in a statement to City Limits.

Women in Need released a report Thursday arguing that fully implementing the expansion would save the city $635 million by offsetting shelter costs. The report disputes claims by the Citizens Budget Commission, which highlighted the fast-growing budget for the program.

Councilmember Crystal Hudson, a member of the Council’s Progressive Caucus, also came out against Mamdami’s decision: “I am deeply disappointed by the Mayor’s reversal on implementing City law to expand CityFHEPS eligibility,” she said in a statement. “Affordability was a central campaign promise for the mayor, and expanding housing vouchers is one of the clearest ways to make good on that promise.”

It’s unclear what a settlement might look like, and what it means for the cost of the program and those potentially eligible. 

“We need leadership that’s able to say, ‘This is the plan for how we’re going to ensure that we’re, one, creating pathways for people out of homelessness,’” said Abreu. “And, more important for us—the expansion is crucial in this—providing support for people so they don’t have to become homeless in the first place.”

Edward Josephson, a lawyer for the Legal Aid Society working on the Council lawsuit, said Mamdani’s decision will only lead to further delays. “Meanwhile all the people in eviction proceedings that would have been covered by this law will not be,” he said.

Here’s what else happened in housing this week—

ICYMI, from City Limits:

Tenants who get affordable housing through the city’s lottery or a rental assistance voucher often can’t afford amenity fees in new mixed-income luxury buildings, creating what one described as a “two-tiered system” within New York City rentals.

Are you a renter with a complaint? The city wants to hear from you. Here’s what you need to know about attending the mayor’s “Rental Ripoff” hearings, which kick off Feb. 26.

ICYMI, from other local newsrooms:

The mayor has promised repeatedly to crackdown on bad landlords. But he’s spoken little about NYCHA—which he now oversees—where tenants have long faced deteriorating conditions, the New York Times reports.

Mamdani’s new housing commissioner is a renter herself, and THE CITY detailed her search to find an apartment in the five boroughs.

Gothamist reports on the New Yorkers who lost their lives during the recent extreme cold, several of whom had housing at the time of their deaths.

New York’s housing shortage has consequences beyond sky-high rents: the state could lose seats in Congress as its population shrinks, New York Focus reports.

Happy Valentines Day: Meet the two married New Yorkers who were set up by their doorman, via the New York Post.

To reach the reporter behind this story, contact Patrick@citylimits.org. To reach the editor, contact Jeanmarie@citylimits.org

Want to republish this story? Find City Limits’ reprint policy here.

The post ‘Honor His Promise’: Advocates Criticize Mamdani’s CityFHEPS Reversal, and What Else Happened This Week in Housing appeared first on City Limits.