Since ChatGPT’s late-2022 release, countless headlines have prophesized an apocalyptic future for workers:

“We asked ChatGPT which jobs it thinks it will replace — and it’s not good news for data entry professionals or reporters” — Fortune, Feb. 8, 2023
“Goldman Sachs Predicts 300 Million Jobs Will Be Lost or Degraded by Artificial Intelligence” — Forbes, March 31, 2023
“Here’s how many U.S. workers ChatGPT says it could replace” — CBS News, April 5, 2023
“ChatGPT AI lists jobs it can do better than humans as millions could be put out of work” — Fox Business, April 5, 2023
“ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners” — The Washington Post, June 2, 2023
“This A.I. Company Wants to Take Your Job” — The New York Times, June 11, 2025.

And yet, in the nearly three years since, we have yet to see the kind of massive labor market shake-up that alarmists predicted, according to an Oct. 1 report from Yale Budget Lab.

The report finds that people haven’t shifted between jobs, new roles haven’t emerged at scale and workers haven’t been automated out of their positions. For now, AI has likely not come for your job.

That’s not to say people aren’t worried. An Aug. 13-18 poll by Reuters/Ipsos found that 71% of respondents are concerned AI will be “putting too many people out of work permanently.” The fear is clearly real.

Still, the Budget Lab says it’s not surprising that AI has yet to seriously disrupt the job market. History tells us that new technology typically takes decades to upheave the workplace.

“Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows,” the report says. “Even if new AI technologies will go on to impact the labor market as much, or more, dramatically, it is reasonable to expect that widespread effects will take longer than 33 months to materialize.”

Over time AI is expected to unsettle the labor market, but some occupations — and experience levels — are particularly vulnerable to the threat.

Job safety is uneven by field

While AI-induced job displacement and creation isn’t evident, when reshaping does happen, it’s likely to hit some fields more than others. It’s largely dependent on how much of your role can be automated.

A Sept. 8 study from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business categorized the jobs that are most and least exposed to automation by generative AI.

Highest exposure occupations (Roughly 50% and higher):

Office and administrative support: 75.5%.
Business and financial operations: 68.4%.
Computer and mathematical: 62.6%.
Sales and related occupations: 60.1%.

Moderate exposure occupations (30%-49.9%):

Management occupations: 49.9%.
Legal: 47.5%.
Arts, design, entertainment, sports and media: 45.8%.
Architecture and engineering: 40.7%.
Life, physical and social science: 31%.

Lower exposure (20%-29.9%):

Educational instruction and library: 29.5%.
Community and social service: 27.5%.
Healthcare practitioners and technical: 23.1%.
Protective service: 20.7%.
Transportation and material moving: 20%.

Lowest exposure (less than 20%):

Food preparation and serving: 18.1%.
Personal care and service: 17.5%.
Health care support: 15.5%.
Production: 14.4%.
Installation and maintenance and repair: 13.1%.
Farming, fishing and forestry: 9.7%.
Construction and extraction: 8.9%.
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance: 2.6%.

An Oct. 6 report from Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) used a ChatGPT-based model to find which jobs could be automated or otherwise performed by AI and found that nearly 100 million jobs could be replaced over the next 10 years.

Fast food and counter workers (89%).
Customer service representatives (83%).
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers (81%).
Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive (80%).
Stockers and order fillers (76%).
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks (76%).
Office clerks, general (66%).
Teaching assistants, preschool, elementary, middle, and secondary school, except special education (65%).
Accountants and auditors (64%).
Retail salespersons (62%).
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners (61%).
Team assemblers (61%).
Cashiers (59%).
Software developers (54%).
Waiters and waitresses (53%).

Younger workers are most exposed to AI disruptions

Evidence is mounting that younger workers are being hit first and hardest by the effects of AI on their employability.

An August 2025 study from Stanford University found that Gen Z workers (ages 22 to 25) who are in occupations most exposed to AI have experienced a 13% decline in employment since 2022. High exposure fields include software developers, software engineers and those in customer service, call center and support roles.

The Stanford report also found that employment drops are greatest in roles where AI replaces tasks rather than enhancing them. Early career workers tend to perform job functions that have the most potential for automation.

Related Articles

Oak Park Heights officials to hear request to turn Joseph’s restaurant into cannabis shop

Meme stock resurgence prompts return of central meme investment fund

Is there an AI bubble? Financial institutions sound a warning

Fed minutes: Most officials supported further rate cuts as worries about jobs rose

Staffing shortages cause more US flight delays as government shutdown reaches 8th day

In other words, younger workers are most exposed in these roles because they have more “book-learning” and less job experience, according to the Stanford study. AI can more readily replace the more codified facets of their work — rules, step-by-step processes and formal education teachings. But it struggles with the type of work requiring “tacit knowledge” that older workers have, like making judgement calls, having intuition and knowing shortcuts.

There’s more evidence that AI seems to be creating a seniority bias in hiring. A Sept. 8 study from Harvard University examined a massive dataset of U.S. resumes and job postings to see whether AI is disrupting work for junior employees versus senior ones. Researchers found that in early 2023, junior hires at firms using AI dropped compared to senior ones. The decline was mainly due to companies slowing down hiring of early career workers. The study found that the fields where young workers are most impacted are wholesale and retail trade.

Early career workers have taken notice of hiring changes and are growing uneasy about their future prospects. Nearly a quarter of workers ages 18 to 34 in the U.S. and across Europe are concerned that AI will put them out of work within the next two years, according to a Sept. 23 report by Deutsche Bank.

We don’t yet fully know how AI is changing work

The trouble with measuring the impact of AI on the workplace is we don’t have fully accurate data yet on exposure, the Budget Lab report says.

Data from Large Language Models (LLMs) like Anthropic and OpenAI are useful, but incomplete. They don’t account for all tasks, occupations, AI tools, real-world constraints or barriers to adoption. All that is to say, take conclusions about AI’s labor impact with a grain of salt.

For now, what we do know is that AI is steadily seeping into many workplaces. Another Stanford University report from this year found that LLM adoption at work has increased from 30.1% in December 2024 to 45.6% as of June and July 2025.

The article Is AI Really Coming After Your Job? originally appeared on NerdWallet.

WASHINGTON — La Nina, the cooler and at times costlier flip side of El Nino, has arrived to warp weather worldwide, meteorologists said Thursday. This natural weather phenomenon often turbocharges the Atlantic hurricane season, but this La Nina may be too weak and fleeting to cause much trouble.

Related Articles

Today in History: October 9, Che Guevara executed

Meme stock resurgence prompts return of central meme investment fund

Dolly Parton responds to concerns about her health: ‘I’m not dying’

Arrivals of international students to the US dropped almost a fifth in August, data shows

What to do if your flight is delayed or canceled during the US government shutdown

In the United States, La Nina often means more precipitation — including possible snowstorms — in northern areas and winter dryness in the South. It can bring heavier rains in Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America and southeastern Africa. It also can mean drought in the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, Korea and southern Japan, meteorologists said.

A La Nina occurs when certain parts of the Central Pacific Ocean cool by 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit compared to normal. The world had been flirting with one this year and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared Thursday that La Nina conditions have formed. But it’s likely to be not very strong and may disappear in the next few months, based on multi-factor computer model forecasts by NOAA and Columbia University, said Michelle L’Heureux, lead scientist on the NOAA team that studies both La Nina and El Nino.

“There is a three out of four chance it will remain a weak event,” L’Heureux said in an email. “A weaker event tends to exert less of an influence on the global circulation, so it’s possible there will be surprises ahead.”

Surprising already describes the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which was forecast to be stronger than normal, but so far is a tad below average in activity. Traditionally, during a La Nina, there’s a weakening of the wind shear that hampers hurricane formation and strengthening, allowing more and bigger storms, especially later in the year, such as late October and into early November and in the Caribbean, said University of Albany hurricane expert Brian Tang.

But Brian McNoldy, who studies tropical cyclones, sea level rise and extreme heat at the University of Miami, said he thinks this La Nina is too late and too little to do much.

The conditions, especially wind shear, favor more hurricane activity, yet it’s not happening and long-range computer models don’t show much forming for the next couple weeks, said Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.

Winter a year ago had a similar weak La Nina but there were still some signs of its impact, L’Heureux said.

FILE – People clear a sidewalk during a winter snowstorm in Philadelphia, Feb. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

Some studies have shown that in the United States, La Nina can be more costly than its warmer El Nino cousin. A 1999 economic study found that drought from La Nina cost U.S. agriculture between $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion, which is far more than the $1.5 billion cost of El Nino.

A cold La Nina is not always the more expensive version, but it is often the case, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia’s air defense were to blame for downing an Azerbaijani jetliner in December that killed 38 people, his first admission of responsibility for the crash in an apparent bid to ease tensions between the neighbors.

Putin said the missiles fired by Russian air defenses to target a Ukrainian drone exploded near the Azerbaijani Airlines plane flying from Baku as it was preparing to land in Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, on Dec. 25, 2024. Ukrainian drones have regularly struck deep inside Russia.

Speaking at a meeting with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Tajikistan’s capital of Dushanbe, where both arrived to attend a summit of the former Soviet nations, Putin pledged to punish those responsible and provide compensation for the victims.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev talk during their meeting on the sidelines of the Russia-Central Asia summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (Grigory Sysoyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Azerbaijani authorities said the jet was accidentally hit by fire from Russian air defenses, then tried to land in western Kazakhstan, where it crashed and killed 38 of 67 people aboard.

Days after the crash, Putin apologized to Aliyev for what he called a “tragic incident” but stopped short of acknowledging responsibility. Aliyev, meanwhile, criticized Moscow for trying to “hush up” the incident.

The controversy over the crash has roiled the previously warm ties between Moscow and Baku. Their relations were further destabilized by deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis rounded up by police in a Russian city in June and a series of arrests of Russians in Azerbaijan.

By STEPHEN GROVES, MARY CLARE JALONICK and MATT BROWN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — A president looking to seize power beyond the executive branch. A Congress controlled by Republican lawmakers unwilling to directly defy him. And a minority party looking for any way to fight back.

Related Articles

Trump to undergo physical exam Friday as health questions linger

Retired Justice Kennedy laments coarse discourse of Trump era and its effects on the Supreme Court

Trump has yet to provide Congress hard evidence that targeted boats carried drugs, officials say

Senate Republicans vote down legislation to check Trump’s use of war powers against cartels

Pressure points ahead could bring a quicker end to the shutdown

The dynamic left Washington in a stalemate Thursday — the ninth day of the government shutdown — and lawmakers openly venting their frustration as they tried to gain traction without the trust that is typically the foundation of any bipartisan deal.

“To have good-faith conversations, you have to have trust. There’s a real challenge of trust,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, chair of the New Democratic Coalition, a pragmatic group of House Democrats.

Groups of lawmakers — huddled over dinners, on phone calls, and in private meetings — have tried to brainstorm ways out of the standoff that has shuttered government offices, kept hundreds of thousands of federal employees at home and threatened to leave them without a scheduled payday. But lawmakers have found themselves running up against the reality that the relationship between the two parties is badly broken.

“We’re in an environment where we need more than a handshake,” said Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who has engaged in talks with Republicans.

President Donald Trump and Republicans have so far held to the stance that they will only negotiate on Democratic demands around health care benefits after they vote to reopen the government. They also say Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer is beholden to the left wing of his party and only staging the shutdown fight to stave off a primary challenge.

“There are some things that I think there is interest on both sides in trying to address when it comes to health care in this country,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Wednesday. “But you can’t take the federal government hostage and expect to have a reasonable conversation on those issues.”

When a handshake deal is not enough

Democrats have insisted they can’t take Trump at his word and therefore need more than a verbal commitment for any deal.

“Donald Trump has no respect for law if he can push outside it, so I think we need some safeguards,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat.

Conflicts over spending power had already been raging before the shutdown as the White House pushed to assert maximum power over congressionally approved budgets. The White House budget office had canceled scores of government contracts, including cutting out the legislative branch entirely with a $4.9 billion cut to foreign aid in August through a legally dubious process known as a “pocket rescission.”

That enraged Democrats — as well as irked some Republicans who criticized it as executive overreach.

“I hate rescissions, to be honest with you, unless they’re congressionally approved,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican.

Matt Glassman, a fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, said the president’s use of rescissions was “blowing up the underlying dynamic of the bargaining” because it inserts intense partisanship into the budget appropriations process that otherwise requires compromise, particularly in the Senate.

Then, as the government entered a shutdown, Trump’s budget director Russ Vought laid out arguments that the president would have even more power to lay off workers and even cancel pay due to furloughed federal workers once the funding lapse is solved. Vought has also announced that the administration was withholding billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in states with Democratic senators who have voted for the shutdown.

Trump has cast Vought’s actions as the consequences of Democratic obstruction, even sharing a video that depicted him as the grim reaper. But on Capitol Hill, there has been an acknowledgment that the hardball tactics are making it harder to negotiate.

“I think with senators carrots work better than sticks,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican.

One Democratic idea may win GOP support

Before they vote to reopen the government, Democrats’ main demand is that Congress take up an extension of subsidies for health plans offered under the Affordable Care Act. Trump has sounded open to a deal, saying that he wants “great health care” for Americans.

What’s received less attention is that Democrats also want new safeguards in the law limiting the White House’s ability to claw back, or rescind, funding already approved by Congress. While final appropriations bills are still being worked out, Republicans have been open to the idea.

“When you end the shutdown and get back to regular order within the appropriations bills, there’s very clear language about how we feel about rescissions,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, a Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee. “I think you’ll find hard, solid support from Republicans to see that what we agree to will be executed on.”

In the meantime, the main sticking point for lawmakers this week has been finding any agreement on extending the health care subsidies.

The consequences of an extended shutdown

As the shutdown drags on without sign of significant progress to ending the impasse, lawmakers are looking ahead to the dates when federal employees will miss a payday.

Active-duty military troops would miss a paycheck on Oct. 15. Some lawmakers are getting nervous about both the financial implications for the troops and the political blowback of allowing soldiers to go without pay.

As he argued with Democrats on Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson pointed out that House Republicans have already passed a stopgap bill that would “keep the government open to make sure TSA agents, Border Patrol agents, the troops and everybody else gets paid.”

There has been some discussion in Congress of passing partial government funding legislation to ensure that military members are paid, but so far Republicans have tried to keep the pressure on Democrats to vote for their bill.

Lawmakers seemed ready to dig in and try to push each other to the brink.

“I would not challenge Donald Trump’s resolve on this if I was anybody,” Cramer said.