11 Sep 2024

Donald Trump faces his own debate fallout just months after benefitting from Joe Biden’s

by | posted in: Politics | 0

By ADRIANA GOMEZ LICON and BILL BARROW Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump emerged Wednesday from a rocky debate against Kamala Harris looking to regain his footing with 54 days until Election Day, the first ballots already going out in Alabama and other states on the cusp of early voting.

Not even three months ago, Trump stepped off the debate stage in Atlanta having watched President Joe Biden deliver a disjointed, whispery performance that eventually led the 81-year-old Democrat to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris, his vice president. By the end of Tuesday night, it was the 78-year-old Trump on the defensive after the 59-year-old Harris controlled much of the debate, repeatedly baiting the Republican former president into agitated answers replete with exaggerations and mistruths.

“We’ll see what the polls say going forward, but I don’t know how anybody can spin this other than a pretty decisive defeat for Trump,” former Rep. Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican who has long been critical of Trump, said Wednesday on CNN.

Harris’ campaign immediately pitched the idea of a second debate. Fox News has proposed an October matchup but with moderators that Trump has indicated he does not prefer. And he said via his Truth Social account Wednesday that there is no need for a second round,

“In the World of Boxing or UFC, when a Fighter gets beaten or knocked out, they get up and scream, “I DEMAND A REMATCH, I DEMAND A REMATCH!” Well, it’s no different with a Debate,” Trump wrote, as he claimed victory. “She was beaten badly last night … so why would I do a Rematch?”

Trump and Harris were together briefly Wednesday in New York, where they joined President Biden and other dignitaries to mark the 23rd anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center. They shook hands for a second time the morning after Harris approached Trump on the debate stage to introduce herself, the first sign of the aggressive approach she would take during the event.

The former president, who flouted convention with a surprise appearance late Tuesday in the post-debate spin room, continued to insist he had won the night, though he also blasted ABC moderators as unfair – a tacit acknowledgement that he did not accomplish what he wanted against Harris.

Trump and some of his allies in online posts speculated about punishing ABC by taking away its broadcast license — the network doesn’t need a license to operate but individual stations do — or denying access to its reporters in the future.

“We had a great night. We won the debate. We had a terrible, a terrible network,” Trump said Wednesday on Fox News. “They should be embarrassed. I mean they kept correcting me and what I said was largely right or I hope it was right.”

Yet his framing of the debate results does not square with the broad consensus of political commentators, strategists on both sides of the political aisle and some immediate assessments by voters who watched Tuesday night. But there is also evidence that the debate did not immediately yield broad shifts among people who watched.

About 6 in 10 debate-watchers said that Harris outperformed Trump, while about 4 in 10 said that Trump did a better job, according to a flash poll conducted by CNN. Before the debate, the same voters were evenly split on whether Trump or Harris would win.

The vast majority of debate-watchers — who, importantly, do not reflect the views of the full voting public — also said that the event wouldn’t affect their votes in the election. Perceptions of the two candidates remain largely unchanged.

Harris was jubilant late Tuesday, telling late-night rallygoers in Philadelphia that it was a “great night,” even as she repeated that she sees Democrats as “underdogs” against Trump. She garnered the endorsement of music and cultural icon Taylor Swift, an intensely popular figure.

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Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire was more charitable to Trump than some, allowing that Harris won by traditional debate standards but fell short in convincing swing voters focused on their economic conditions.

“The majority of those swing voters are still results driven,” Sununu said on CNN, adding that Trump still has opportunities to sway voters on the economy, immigration and, especially, foreign policy. That view was certainly the Republican messaging on Capitol Hill, where the GOP is trying to maintain its fragile House majority and take advantage of a friendly slate of Senate contests to take control in that chamber, as well.

“Undecided voters’ biggest concern about Kamala Harris heading into the debate was the fact that they don’t know where she stands on any issues because of her constant flip flops,” said Mike Berg, the communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. “I don’t think she did anything to fix those concerns.”

And Jack Pandol, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee handling the House races said, Harris “still refuses to tell voters what she will do as president.”

Yet even on that score, Trump handed Democrats a cudgel with his answers on health. After twice running for president on promises of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, commonly called “Obamacare,” Trump falsely insisted that he saved the 2010 law. At the same time, Trump stood by his long-standing promises to replace the law with something better but when pressed acknowledged that he still had not specific proposal.

“I have concepts of a plan,” Trump said in a remark that become quick fodder for online memes and merchandise.

Dent, the Pennsylvania Republican, said that answer tracked with how Trump approached the issue during his four years as president. “He would only say ‘we’re going to cover everybody, it’s going to cost less, and it’s going to be beautiful,’’ Dent recalled in his CNN appearance. “There was never any policy to back it up. He just didn’t care about its impact on people.”

Sununu, meanwhile, offered perhaps the most revealing assessment of where Trump stands after the debate. It was not what Sununu said about Trump himself, but about another Republican the governor originally supported in the 2024 primaries: former Ambassador Nikki Haley, who was the last GOP candidate standing against Trump and continued garnering support in primaries weeks after she dropped out of the race.

“Imagine what Nikki would have done in that debate,” Sununu said. “It would have been great.”

Barrow reported from Atlanta. AP Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-Deveaux, Michelle L. Price and Lisa Mascaro in Washington contributed to this report.

11 Sep 2024

Experts: How Harris and Trump’s plans could impact housing affordability

by | posted in: News | 0

Andrew Dehan | (TNS) Bankrate.com

The housing market has an affordability problem. During the pandemic, historically low mortgage rates boosted demand, driving home prices to record highs. After decades of underbuilding, construction labor shortages and rising material costs, the supply shortage continues to push homeownership further out of reach. To afford the typical home today, Americans need at least a six-figure salary, according to a Bankrate study.

While the housing market typically isn’t moved by presidential elections, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have weighed in with varying proposals. While these would need approval in Congress to move forward, here’s what we know about their plans so far, and what the experts think.

Affordable housing

Vice President Harris has shared plans for 3 million new housing units over the next four years, spurred by a tax break incentivizing home builders to create more starter homes. She has also proposed up to $25,000 in down payment assistance for eligible first-time homebuyers, along with restrictions on how landlords determine rent increases and limits on tax breaks for institutional investors who buy single-family homes.

It’s unclear if such plans would work. The rent cap, for example, could have unintended consequences, says Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief and senior economic analyst for Bankrate.

“Price controls including constraints on rent can have the impact of limiting supply which, in turn, can exacerbate the problem,” Hamrick says. “Who wants to build or own if they’re constrained from setting prices?

Meanwhile, former President Trump has suggested opening tracts of federal land for housing development, removing restrictive regulations on homebuilding and addressing supply chain disruptions.

“Almost 25% of the cost of a newly constructed single-family home is embedded in regulations at all three levels of government,” says Jim Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which lobbies on behalf of pro-business and pro-housing candidates. For a multifamily unit, that share is closer to 43%.

Though Trump hasn’t yet detailed how he’d reduce regulations, his past tenure could hint at what might come. In his first term, he signed into law the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), which included a lower corporate tax rate and a provision creating Opportunity Zones to encourage investment in lower-income areas.

“Changes in tax policy, if significant, could have a variety of impacts on the economy and the housing market, in particular,” Hamrick says. “A lower corporate tax rate could stimulate housing activity, boost investment and potentially lead to increased housing market activity. Among the potential ripple effects could be a rise in construction, more supply and lower home prices.”

On the flip side, a higher corporate tax rate could have the inverse effect, Hamrick says. Home builders could scale back activity or pass the higher costs onto homebuyers.

“Former President Trump said he wants to lower the C corp rate,” says Bill Kilmer, senior vice president of Legislative and Political Affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which represents the housing finance industry. “I imagine that, like the Biden budget proposal, Vice President Harris would want to raise the corporate rate as a means of revenue to pay for some other priorities.”

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

In his first term, Trump zeroed in on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) underpinning the U.S. housing finance system. In the wake of the 2008 housing crisis, Fannie and Freddie were placed under government conservatorship to help stabilize the market.

Trump has advocated for taking the GSEs out of conservatorship, which could lead to more competition — in other words, more options — in the mortgage market and minimize taxpayer exposure, Kilmer of the MBA says.

It could also raise mortgage costs, says Chen Zhao, senior manager of Economics at real estate brokerage Redfin.

“When Fannie and Freddie were in trouble, there was this question of, ‘Is there an applied guarantee from the federal government for these mortgage-backed securities (MBS)?’ And the answer turned out to be yes, because the government basically just took them over,” Zhao says. “But once you introduce that question mark about whether or not the MBS are guaranteed, it means that rates have to trade for a little bit higher in order to account for that additional risk.”

For her part, Harris has pointed to a 2015 Moody’s study that found privatizing Fannie and Freddie would add approximately $1,200 a year to the cost of a typical mortgage. ​​

“(Harris) really wants (the GSEs) as permanent, sponsored entities with those professional charters to lean in more to the mission side of their charter and their affordable housing mandate,” Kilmer says. “Not just their goals, but also sort of what they can be doing to increase supply and affordability.”

Immigration

Trump has indicated that, if reelected, he plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants — a move his campaign has said would help lower housing costs.

Yet, approximately 20% of the construction labor force — residential and otherwise — is immigrant labor, according to Tobin of the NAHB.

“The construction industry has struggled with lack of labor supply for years,” Hamrick says.

“The thing about the recent wave of immigrants is that they don’t demand a lot of housing, actually, because they are either housed in public housing or they’re housing with relatives or friends,” Zhao says. “So, there’s not a lot of net housing demand that’s being added.”

Harris has shifted her stance on immigration — circling back to investing in the southern border wall — but continues to oppose mass deportations. During the Democratic National Convention in August, Democrats touted solutions to expanding legal entry and paths to citizenship.

“We’ve got to find a way to create a visa system for immigrants who want to work in the construction sector, to come into this country under a visa and work in our sector,” Tobin says. “We’re hopeful that the next President of the United States will lead into that and solve that problem.”

Interest rates

Trump has also suggested he would lower interest rates if reelected — but the Federal Reserve, not the president, sets monetary policy, and the Fed operates independently of who sits in the Oval Office.

“History has shown that in countries where politics infects monetary policy, it is less effective,” Hamrick says. “Translated, that means there’s a higher risk of inflation when heads of state or government try to muscle their central banks.”

Harris has said she wouldn’t interfere with the Fed, but rather focus on lowering costs.

To that end, mortgage rates have already started retreating, and forecasters expect them to continue cooling into 2025.

“Rates probably are coming down on their own anyways,” Zhao says.

Tariffs and trade

In his first term, Trump imposed a series of tariffs to restrict foreign trade, particularly with China, including on building materials like steel and aluminum. Many of these tariffs are still in place today.

Harris hasn’t said much on trade to date, but it’s unlikely the U.S. would return to the pre-Trump era of free trade.

If elected to a second term, Trump has said he’d impose further tariffs, including a 10% to 20% tax on all imports, and up to a 60% tax on imports from China. That would add to inflation, according to a recent Goldman Sachs report.

“It is well documented that if you increase tariffs, you basically increase prices. So that has a big inflationary impact,” Zhao says.

While housing costs tend to outpace inflation, higher prices overall make it harder for Americans to afford everyday expenses and set aside savings, such as for a down payment on a home.

“Abnormally high inflation does what inflation tends to do, which is to make prices go higher, robs purchasing power and would ultimately coincide with rising or higher interest rates,” Hamrick says. “Does that sound familiar? It should because that’s what we experienced in recent years. Central banks, like our own Federal Reserve, raise benchmark rates in response to high inflation. That ultimately catches up to mortgage rates and typically slows the broader economy.”

(Visit Bankrate online at bankrate.com.)

©2024 Bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

11 Sep 2024

More women had their tubes tied after Roe v. Wade was overturned

by | posted in: Society | 0

By LAURA UNGAR Associated Press

More women chose to have their tubes tied after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, a new study shows, and the biggest increases were in states that ban abortion.

A research letter published Wednesday in JAMA examined insurance claims data from 2021 and 2022 for around 4.8 million women who got tubal ligations, which are surgeries to close the fallopian tubes so the patient can no longer get pregnant. The data came from 36 states and Washington, D.C., and researchers categorized these places as “banned,” “limited” or “protected,” based on their abortion policies.

In the 18 months before the Dobbs decision in late June 2022, tubal ligations remained stable in all three groups of states. But in the latter half of 2022, the procedure rose in all three groups. Researchers also looked at sustained change in the numbers over time, finding that tubal ligations rose by 3% each month in banned states.

It’s “not entirely surprising” given the changes to abortion laws, said Xiao Xu, lead author of the research letter and associate professor of reproductive sciences at Columbia University’s Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons.

The research letter adds to other findings about a rise in sterilization procedures after Roe was overturned, including a study from researchers published in April in JAMA Health Forum that found an abrupt increase in tubal ligations among women 18-30 years old and vasectomies among men in that age group.

“It looks like the data they used were able to break things down by state, which is nice and something we were unable to do with the data we used,” said Jacqueline Ellison, an author of the April study who works at the University of Pittsburgh’s School of Public Health.

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Dr. Clayton Alfonso recalled seeing a rise in tubal ligations in his OB-GYN practice at Duke University in North Carolina, “especially closer to the Dobbs decision.”

Patients who didn’t want more — or any — children were worried about contraceptives failing and becoming pregnant unexpectedly, said Alfonso, who wasn’t involved in either study. Patients told him they would rather be sterilized in case they weren’t able to get an abortion.

North Carolina banned most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy in 2023. Alfonso said the the number of patients seeking tubal ligations has fallen a bit, which he suspects happened when people became more certain about local laws.

He also said he’d like to see research on what happens past 2022, given the “ever-evolving landscape.” Xu said her team is interested in doing such a study when the data becomes available.

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

11 Sep 2024

Do independent voters support Harris or Trump? New poll finds big shift from month ago

by | posted in: Politics | 0

Brendan Rascius | (TNS) McClatchy Washington Bureau

Former President Donald Trump now leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points among independents, marking a dramatic shift from one month ago, according to new polling.

In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 49% of independent respondents said they are supporting or leaning toward Trump, while 46% said the same for Harris. Three percent said they’re backing a third-party candidate, and 2% said they’re undecided.

In an early August poll, Harris held an 11-point lead over Trump with independents — with 48% support versus his 37%.

In that poll, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was backed by 12% of independents and other third party candidates received 2% support.

Kennedy has since suspended his campaign, endorsed Trump and urged his supporters to back him.

Political experts previously told McClatchy News that his endorsement “could potentially boost support for Trump.”

In August, Harris likely also benefited from a honeymoon period with voters, having only been in the presidential race since mid-July, experts previously said.

The latest poll, conducted between Sept. 3 and 5, sampled 1,529 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, meaning Trump’s lead is within this margin.

Other findings in the poll:

Trump has similarly seen a significant increase in his support among Latino voters since August, erasing Harris’ lead, according to the poll.

In the latest poll, 51% of Latino voters said they support the former president, while 47% said the same for Harris.

In August, Harris held a 15-point edge over Trump with Latino voters.

The latest poll also found there is a large gender gap in the support for the two candidates, with Harris leading among women by 15 points and Trump ahead among men by 12 points.

Trump is also leading with white voters, with 50% versus Harris’ 47%. However, Harris is receiving a larger share of support from this demographic than her Democratic predecessors. Biden garnered 41% support among white voters in 2020, and Hillary Clinton received 37% in 2016.

Among all registered voters, Harris is leading Trump by one point — 49% to his 48% — narrowing the race from August, when the vice president was up 48% to Trump’s 45%.

And among those who said they definitely plan on voting, Harris outpaced Trump by three points, 51% compared with his 48%.

The poll comes just hours before the two candidates are set to take part in their first — and potentially only — televised presidential debate. The debate, hosted by ABC News, will air live at 9 p.m. E.T.

The majority of respondents, 70%, said they plan to watch most or all of the debate, and 30% of registered voters said it will be an important factor in determining how they vote.

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©2024 McClatchy Washington Bureau. Visit at mcclatchydc.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.