Real World Economics: The flaws in Trump’s ‘liberation’ reasoning on tariffs

posted in: All news | 0

Edward Lotterman

For older Europeans, “liberation day” was the jubilant one when allied soldiers ended brutal occupation. We in the United States won’t remember April 2, 2025, that way. It is hard to remember when a major economy took such a wrong turn based on such a false premise.

But since we did that, let’s understand some key things:

First, as with military conflicts, trade wars seldom turn out the way people who start them expect. In August 1914, German and French soldiers who went marching to kill each other thought they would be home by Christmas. On 1941’s spring solstice, Adolf Hitler’s Wehrmacht soldiers who invaded the USSR took no winter clothing. The soldiers figured would be in comfy barracks as occupiers before cold weather hit.

Similarly, in June 1930, Utah Sen. Reed Smoot and Oregon Rep. Willis Hawley were adulated by many when President Herbert Hoover signed their tariff act. Both were out of office 18 months later,  in the depths of the Great Depression, followed quickly by Hoover.

Secondly, some imports that are being taxed are nearly impossible to produce here. Consider fruits and vegetables. Weeks ago, when President Donald Trump told farmers to “have fun!” with new tariffs on imported foods, my mind returned to 1981. Standing on ground that got a quarter inch of rain a year, I asked a Peruvian agronomist what crop  could possibly earn enough to amortize enormous costs of proposed irrigation. “Well,” Dr. Hato said, “maybe asparagus.”

Inwardly I snickered, but today we can buy Peruvian asparagus year-around plus blueberries to boot.

Without imports, asparagus was in U.S. stores March through May and U.S. blueberries were harvested April through October, and only for extremely high prices in the first and last months. Peru’s harvest runs November through March perfectly complementing ours. Minnesota farmers can have all the fun they want trying to grow blueberries alongside their asparagus fields and coffee groves. But don’t expect much to put in your cart.

Yes, we can grow coffee. Long-time Minnesotans remember the “You’ll love the flavor of Hawaii in McGarvey” jingle repeated on WCCO radio for years. Coffee from the Kona coast of Hawaii’s Big Island was excellent. But as my wife and I just saw there, the net profits per acre of a golf course dwarf those per acre of a coffee grove. Moreover, that island, much of it bare lava, has fewer acres than six rectangular Minnesota counties.

Trump is not banning imports of any of these, but their prices in supermarkets will be higher. Do understand that the boost need not be the 10% Trump set for Peru or Brazil. While that tariff will hit every container of unprocessed products clearing customs, trucking, processing, warehousing and retailers’ costs here need not change.

Of course, we long produced canned or frozen vegetables in northern states. H.J Heinz operated in Pennsylvania for good reasons, the same reasons that made New Jersey “the Garden State” and made my Dutch immigrant grandfather a vegetable farm field boss on Maryland’s Eastern Shore in 1899.

Before federally-subsidized irrigation in California, Baltimore was the canning capital of the United States. Given years to adjust to the new tariffs, seasonal vegetable production and canning could again be important in these mid-Atlantic states, although many farm fields have become suburbs. But no U.S. farmer anywhere will “have fun” as immediately as Trump assumes.

All this brings us to the president’s and his team’s most important failure of critical thinking: Like the lost gardens of New Jersey, much capacity that used to fill U.S. steel mills, auto plants and lumber mills once is gone — permanently.

Yes, an electric furnace mill like Gerdau Steel in Cottage Grove, idled recently, perhaps could be re-opened in months. But, even if they still were standing, St. Paul’s Ford plant, “Dodge Main” in Hamtramck Mich., or U.S. Steel in Gary, Ind., plus small- and mid-size lumber mills in the South and Northwest, would never be reopened because they were obsolete. This is a key flaw behind presidential expectations of an immediate economic flowering under tariffs.

Micro-econ and accounting principles of “fixed costs” and “sunk costs” apply here. Farm tractor and construction backhoes have costs, amortizing principal, interest, and insurance, that remain the same whether used 500 hours a year or 1,500. These “fixed costs” contrast to “variable costs,” like fuel, that do vary. But most fixed costs of mobile machines can be recovered by selling them.

For an 80-year old steel mill, auto plant or sawmill, such fixed costs are largely already amortized. They already were “sunk” or non-recoverable. Yes, one physically could move operable fender stamping presses, steel beam rolling lines or timber circular-blade headsaws out of the mills where they had run for decades. But no one would buy them other than for scrap. So obsolete in comparison to modern machinery, using them in a new facility would be stupid even if they were free.

Econ students learn such sunk costs are irrelevant in deciding how much product to produce. As long as any obsolete facility was operable, the owner could make profits as long as output sold for more than variable operating costs like labor, raw materials and utilities.

The 1925 St. Paul Ford plant thus operated until 2011 even though its variable costs per car were higher than in new factories. Ditto for the 1916 U.S. Steel mill in Duluth that ran until 1981. But now, even if still standing, no one would waste time and money reopening them. Integrated mills and factories are enormously complex. Returning them to operating form isn’t ordering a truck of propane, lighting a pilot light or flipping a switch.

The economic term for all of this, of how easily production can be increased, is “elasticity of supply.” In economics, “elasticity” always means percentage change in one variable in relation to a percentage change in another. So if tariffs raise auto prices by 25%, by what percentage will U.S.-produced cars rise?

Despite the apparent incentives, Trump is wrong in assuming increases will be instantaneous. Elasticities are very low in the short run. Output percentage increases at first are tiny compared to price boost. They get larger over long spans of time, but cars will never be as cheap as pre-Liberation Day. Tariff-motivated output increases will be zero for weeks or months, even in operating plants with excess capacity. These businesses must hire and train workers and order raw materials and components. Building new plants takes even longer.

Pricier Canadian lumber might prompt a new sawmill to be built in two or three years. Auto plants or steel mills take five to seven. Until these are running, U.S. households must pay more for cars, appliances and houses. And again, these items will never drop to pre-tariff prices.

Moreover, the Trump-stated incentive for companies producing more goods here to avoid tariffs contradicts the president’s other stated goal of using tariffs to raise federal revenue. In order for tariffs to, for example, replace the income tax, consumers will have to continue paying higher prices for imported goods. Either way, it’s a tax, just more regressive than our current system.

Other fallacies abound. Trade “deficits” — the apparent baseline Trump used in calculating the tariff rates — don’t mean one side is either cheating or subsidizing the other. Simple differences in domestic tax systems justify much of some countries’ higher tariff rates.

Fact checker Glenn Kessler ably examines much of this in “The false things Trump said about tariffs during his announcement” in the April 3 Washington Post. And Dartmouth University econ professor Douglas Irwin, the best historian of U.S. trade policies, explains a great deal in an excellent 8:45-minute YouTube video. Search for “Why Trump’s Idol, McKinley, Abandoned His Own Tariff Strategy/WSJ.”

Related Articles


Real World Economics: Unkept promises are bad economics


Ed Lotterman: Attacking Denmark about Greenland is wrong, dumb and damaging


Real World Economics: Tariffs raise questions, here are some answers


Real World Economics: Stagflation bullets are already in the air


Real World Economics: U.S. heath care model provides a teaching moment

St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at stpaul@edlotterman.com.

Injured teenager fell 20 feet through grate at abandoned Ford plant

posted in: All news | 0

A teenager fell through a grate at the abandoned Ford plant Saturday night, plunging 20 feet down into a basement, according to St. Paul fire officials.

At about 8 p.m. Saturday, the St. Paul Fire Department dispatched its Technical Rescue Team to the former Ford plant at  965 Mississippi River Boulevard south after a caller reported the teen had fallen into the basement and was unable to walk, according to St. Paul Fire Deputy Chief and public information officer Jamie E. Smith, Sr.

The crews arrived, they found the teen by accessing the ground level door. The teen was conscious and alert with “multiple non-life threatening injuries” and was taken to a local hospital, Smith said.

No technical rescue was required, he said.

Related Articles


Increasingly dangerous scam targets kids through sextortion


South St. Paul man killed in solo vehicle crash in St. Paul Park Saturday


U.S. Bank executive confirmed as pilot in fatal Brooklyn Park plane crash


Unsolved violent crimes in Native American areas to get attention with FBI surge, including Minnesota push


High school hockey coach, Lakeville officer returns home 2 months after injury

34 new books in our spring 2025 preview to add to your TBR pile

posted in: All news | 0

It’s already been a tough year. But spring means rebirth and renewal — and also an opportunity to enjoy a good read on a park bench, in your backyard, or just about anywhere else. No matter how you’re feeling, there’s bound to be a book to lift your spirits, make you think, or just give you a much-needed laugh.

Whether you’re looking for funny essays by one of America’s most popular comedians, a thoughtful look at the career of a hip-hop legend, a biography of one of the nation’s foremost authors, or an appreciation of the birds that remind us what it means to be mindful and grounded, we’ve got you covered with 34 books coming in the next three months that will be well worth your time.

Here is a look at some of the books that will be published in spring 2025. (Covers courtesy of the publishers)

“Big Chief”

Author: Jon Hickey

What It’s About: Debut San Francisco author Hickey’s novel follows a young Anishinaabe lawyer who runs a casino with his friend, the tribal president. Their grip on power is threatened by an activist who has been making national waves. Hickey is already drawing comparisons to Tommy Orange and Louise Erdrich.

Publication Date: April 8

— 

“My Documents”

Author: Kevin Nguyen

What It’s About: The latest from The Verge journalist and novelist Nguyen (“New Waves”) follows four Vietnamese American cousins whose lives are thrown into disarray after the U.S. government imprisons people of their heritage following a series of terrorist attacks. Two cousins are sent to prison camps, while two remain free.

Publication Date: April 8

— 

“Vanishing World”

Author: Sayaka Murata, translated by Ginny Tapley Takemori

What It’s About: From the Japanese author whose darkly funny “Convenience Store Woman” and disturbing “Earthlings” were both hits stateside, this one follows a woman who was conceived naturally by her parents — in a version of Japan in which artificial insemination is the norm, and sex is taboo.

Publication Date: April 15

“One Death at a Time”

Author: Abbi Waxman

What It’s About: In the latest novel from Waxman (“The Bookish Life of Nina Hill”), a former actress with a drinking problem, smart mouth and bad temper is falsely accused of murder, and teams up with her zoomer sobriety coach to clear her name.

Publication Date: April 15

“Medicine River: A Story of Survival and the Legacy of Indian Boarding Schools”

Author: Mary Annette Pember

What It’s About: Ojibwe reporter Pember’s debut book is a history of so-called “boarding schools” in the U.S. from the mid-19th century to the 1930s, in which Native children endured unspeakable brutality. One of the children sent to a school was Pember’s mother, whose trauma she writes about in the book.

Publication Date: April 22

“Zeal”

Author: Morgan Jerkins

What It’s About: The latest from acclaimed author Jerkins (“This Will Be My Undoing”) is a sweeping epic about multiple generations of descendants of Harrison and Tirzah, two star-crossed lovers who led separate lives in the days after the Civil War.

Publication Date: April 22

“The Golden Hour: A Story of Family and Power in Hollywood”

Author: Matthew Specktor

What It’s About: L.A. author Specktor (“Always Crashing in the Same Car”) returns with a cross-genre book about the film industry, informed by his experiences growing up with his parents, CAA agent Fred Specktor and screenwriter Katherine McGaffey Howe.

Publication Date: April 22

“Better: A Memoir About Wanting to Die”

Author: Arianna Rebolini

What It’s About: In her new memoir, novelist Rebolini (“Public Relations,” written with Katie Heaney) tells the story of her long battle with suicidal depression, which at one point led her to write goodbye letters to her husband and son, and considers how we might help people who want to take their own lives.

Publication Date: April 29

“The Sea Gives Up the Dead: Stories”

Author: Molly Olguín

What It’s About: From beloved Pasadena indie publisher Red Hen Press, a short story collection that blends fairy tales, fantasy, and horror. The book won the prestigious Grace Paley Prize in Short Fiction.

Publication Date: April 29

Here is a look at some of the books that will be published in spring 2025. (Covers courtesy of the publishers)

“Turning to Birds”

Author: Lili Taylor

What It’s About: Taylor, familiar to moviegoers for her roles in films including “Say Anything” and “I Shot Andy Warhol,” took a break from acting and found herself fascinated by the birds that surrounded her. This essay collection urges readers to practice mindfulness and pay attention to the world that surrounds us — including our friends in the sky,

Publication Date: April 29

— 

“Everyday Intuition: What Psychology, Science, and Psychics Can Teach Us About Finding and Trusting Our Inner Voice”

Author: Elizabeth Greenwood

What It’s About: What exactly is intuition? That’s the question Greenwood tackles in her latest book, which takes a deep dive into the mysterious ability. Greenwood uses data to explain how intuition isn’t the same thing as anxiety or wishful thinking and examines the role it plays in our everyday lives.

Publication Date: May 6

“My Name Is Emilia del Valle”

Author: Isabel Allende, translated by Frances Riddle

What It’s About: California-based Chilean American author has been a literary superstar ever since the publication of her 1982 debut novel “The House of Spirits.” Her latest follows the title character, a 19th-century journalist in San Francisco who covers the Chilean Civil War of 1891 and reconnects with her estranged father.

Publication Date: May 6

“Words for My Comrades: A Political History of Tupac Shakur”

Author: Dean Van Nguyen

What It’s About: It’s been nearly 30 years since rap legend Shakur was shot and killed in Nevada, leaving a lasting sense of loss in the hip-hop world. Music writer Van Nguyen explores Shakur’s cultural impact in this book about the political influences on his music.

Publication Date: May 6

“The Director”

Author: Daniel Kehlmann, translated by Ross Benjamin

What It’s About: The latest from the acclaimed German author (“You Should Have Left”) is a historical novel about G.W. Pabst, the Austrian filmmaker who returned to his home country from Hollywood during World War II and was ordered by propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels to make movies for the Nazi regime.

Publication Date: May 6

“Poetry Is Not a Luxury: Poems for All Seasons”

Author: Anonymous

What It’s About: The title of this poetry anthology comes from the late, legendary poet Audre Lorde — it’s also the name of the Instagram account with more than 840,000 followers that inspired the book. It contains poems from some of today’s best working poets, including Ross Gay, Rita Dove, Naomi Shihab Nye, and Victoria Chang.

Publication Date: May 6

“Big Dumb Eyes: Stories From a Simpler Mind”

Author: Nate Bargatze

What It’s About: “Reading, I believe, is the key to smart,” joked stand-up comedian Bargatze in his first “Saturday Night Live” monologue. His debut book is a humorous (of course) essay collection in which he writes about his life as a “non-genius.”

Publication Date: May 6

“Sympathy for Wild Girls: Stories”

Author: Demree McGhee

What It’s About: The debut book from San Diego author McGhee, published by the award-winning Feminist Press, collects short stories that explore the lives of queer Black women as they search for intimacy and places to belong.

Publication Date: May 6

“The Dark Maestro”

Author: Brendan Slocumb

What It’s About: Musician and teacher Brendan Slocumb has made a career out of writing classical music-themed thrillers (“Symphony of Secrets,” “The Violin Conspiracy”). His latest novel follows a cello prodigy who has to enter witness protection with his family after his father turns state’s evidence against a group of criminals.

Publication Date: May 13

“Bochica”

Author: Carolina Flórez-Cerchiaro

What It’s About: The debut book from Colombian author Flórez-Cerchiaro is a Gothic horror novel that follows Antonia, a woman who returns to the possibly haunted mansion where she and her cursed family used to live after it is converted into a luxury hotel.

Publication Date: May 13

Here is a look at some of the books that will be published in spring 2025. (Covers courtesy of the publishers)

“The Emperor of Gladness”

Author: Ocean Vuong

What It’s About: Poet Vuong stunned readers with his bestselling 2019 debut novel, “On Earth We’re Briefly Gorgeous.” His latest work of fiction follows Hai, a 19-year-old who plans to take his own life, but meets an elderly widow with dementia who talks him out of it; he becomes her caretaker and friend.

Publication Date: May 13

“Mark Twain”

Author: Ron Chernow

What It’s About: Acclaimed biographer Chernow, whose book “Alexander Hamilton” was the inspiration for Lin-Manuel Miranda’s blockbuster musical, returns with an account of the life of one of America’s most important authors.

Publication Date: May 13

“It All Felt Impossible: 42 Years in 42 Essays”

Author: Tom McAllister

What It’s About: McAllister, who earned rave reviews for his novel “How to Be Safe,” gave himself a literary challenge: Write an essay for every year of his life, each one no more than 1,500 words. This book collects these touching and funny essays, with topics as varied as learning to ride a bike as an adult and working long hours at a cheesesteak shop.

Publication Date: May 14

“Marsha: The Joy and Defiance of Marsha P. Johnson”

Author: Tourmaline

What It’s About: Artist and filmmaker Tourmaline tells the life story of Johnson, the pioneering performance artist and transgender activist who famously threw the first brick in the Stonewall uprising, a watershed moment for the LGBTQ+ in the U.S.

Publication Date: May 20

“Things in Nature Merely Grow”

Author: Yiyun Li

What It’s About: Li, author of novels including “The Vagrants” and “The Book of Goose,” is one of the country’s most deservedly acclaimed writers. Her latest book is a memoir that reckons with the unthinkable: the loss of both of her teenage sons to suicide. 

Publication Date: May 20

“Frontier: A Memoir and a Ghost Story”

Author: Erica Stern

What It’s About: In this hybrid-genre book from indie press Barrelhouse, author Stern writes about her own experiences with complications during labor, and intersperses her story with a fictional tale of a woman who died during childbirth in the Wild West.

Publication Date: June 3

“Charlottesville: An American Story”

Author: Deborah Baker

What It’s About: Baker, who was a Pulitzer Prize finalist for her biography of poet Laura Riding, tells the story of the deadly violence that unfolded in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August of 2017, when racist and neo-Nazi groups held a rally in the college town.

Publication Date: June 3

“Flashlight”

Author: Susan Choi

What It’s About: One of the most anticipated books of the season, Choi’s follow-up to her National Book Award-winning “Trust Exercise” follows the aftermath of the disappearance of a Korean-Japanese man who was walking on a beach with his 10-year-old daughter.

Publication Date: June 3

“Deep House: The Gayest Love Story Ever Told”

Author: Jeremy Atherton Lin

What It’s About: UCLA-educated Atherton Lin won the National Book Critics Circle Award for his previous book, “Gay Bar”; his latest is a memoir that chronicles his relationship with a British man that began in 1996, as the U.S. Congress passed the Defense of Marriage Act.

Publication Date: June 3

“Midnight at the Cinema Palace”

Author: Christopher Tradowsky

What It’s About: The debut novel from the Minnesota-based writer and artist follows a group of three queer friends in 1990s San Francisco as they explore the city during the height of the AIDS epidemic and before the dawn of the Internet.

Publication Date: June 10

“Murderland: Crime and Bloodlust in the Time of Serial Killers”

Author: Caroline Fraser

What It’s About: Fraser won critical acclaim — and the Pulitzer Prize — for “Prairie Fires,” her biography of Laura Ingalls Wilder. Her latest book tells the story of murderers including Ted Bundy, Gary Ridgway, and Richard Ramirez, and argues that environmental destruction might be to blame for the way they turned out.

Publication Date: June 10

“This Is Not a Ghost Story”

Author: Amerie

What It’s About: The first novel for adults from the singer-songwriter (“1 Thing”) is a satire about a Black man who dies and finds himself resurrected as a ghost — the first verifiable one in human history — in Los Angeles.

Publication Date: June 10

Related Articles


Readers and writers: Haunting tale set in Lake Superior lighthouse is must-read


Literary calendar for week of April 6


Literary picks for week of April 6: ‘Great Gatsby’ readings


Live reading of ‘Great Gatsby’ kicks off events marking 100th anniversary


The truth About F. Scott Fitzgerald’s drunken brawl in Rome

“The Girls Who Grew Big”

Author: Leila Mottley

What It’s About: Oakland author Mottley shocked the literary world with her 2022 novel “Nightcrawling,” which she published at the age of 19, and made her the youngest author to ever be longlisted for the Booker Prize. Her latest follows a group of teenage mothers living in the Florida panhandle.

Publication Date: June 24

“Fresh, Green Life”

Author: Sebastian Castillo

What It’s About: Castillo (“Salmon”) is one of the most original authors working today; his darkly funny latest novel follows a writer — also named Sebastian Castillo — who breaks his self-imposed yearlong exile to attend a New Year’s Eve party, where he hopes to connect with his former love interest.

Publication Date: June 24

“Television for Women”

Author: Danit Brown

What It’s About: Brown brings more than a touch of dark humor to this novel that follows Estie, a woman who gives birth and finds that motherhood is not the fulfilling experience she hoped it would be. The book is drawing comparisons to Rachel Yoder’s “Nightbitch.”

Publication Date: June 24

A Bloomington woman was struck and killed on I-494 Saturday night

posted in: All news | 0

A woman was hit and killed at eastbound I-494 and 34th Avenue in Bloomington on Saturday night while running across traffic lanes, according to the state patrol.

Cynthia Finnell, 66, of Bloomington was struck and killed on eastbound 494 while she was running across the eastbound lanes, according to the state patrol website. The driver of a Ford Explorer in the right lane of the freeway, just west of 34th Avenue, struck and killed her.

The deadly crash occurred at 8:45 p.m. Saturday,  according to L. Mike Lee, public information officer for the Minnesota State Patrol.

Further details will be released at a later date as the investigation is active and ongoing, he said.

Related Articles


Increasingly dangerous scam targets kids through sextortion


South St. Paul man killed in solo vehicle crash in St. Paul Park Saturday


U.S. Bank executive confirmed as pilot in fatal Brooklyn Park plane crash


Unsolved violent crimes in Native American areas to get attention with FBI surge, including Minnesota push


High school hockey coach, Lakeville officer returns home 2 months after injury