Commentary: The future we’ll miss: Political inaction holds back AI’s benefits

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We’re all familiar with the motivating cry of “YOLO” right before you do something on the edge of stupidity and exhilaration.

We’ve seen the “TL;DR” (“too long; didn’t read”) section that shares the key takeaways from a long article.

And, we’ve experienced “FOMO” when our friends make plans and we feel compelled to tag along just to make sure we’re not left on the sidelines of an epic experience.

Let’s give a name to our age’s most haunting anxiety: TFWM—The Future We’ll Miss. It’s the recognition that future generations may ask why, when faced with tools to cure, create and connect, we chose to maintain the status quo. Let’s run through a few examples to make this a little clearer:

— AI can detect breast cancer earlier than humans and save millions in treatments and perhaps even thousands of lives. Yet, AI use in medical contexts is often tied up in red tape. #TFWM

— New understanding of the interior design of cells via AI tools has the potential to increase drug development. AI researchers are still struggling to find the computing necessary to run their experiments. #TFWM

— Weather forecasts empowered by AI may soon allow us to detect storms 10 days earlier. A shortage of access to quality data may delay improvements and adoption of these tools. #TFWM

— Firefighters have turned to VR exercises to gain valuable experience fighting fires in novel, extreme contexts. It’s the sort of practice that can make a big difference when the next spark appears. Limited AI readiness among local and state governments, however, stands in the way. #TFWM

I could go on. The point is that in several domains, we’re making the affirmative choice to extend the status quo despite viable alternatives to further human flourishing. Barriers to spreading these AI tools across jurisdictions are eminently solvable. Whether it’s budgetary constraints, regulatory hurdles or public skepticism, all of these hindrances can be removed with enough political will.

So, why am I trying to make #TFWM a “thing”? In other words, why is it important to increase awareness of this perspective? The AI debate is being framed by questions that have distracted us from the practical policy challenges we need to address to bring about a better future.

The first set of distracting questions is some variant of: “Will AI become a sentient overlord and end humanity?” This is a debate about a speculative, distant future that conveniently distracts us from the very real, immediate lives we could be saving today.

The second set of questions is along the lines of “How many jobs will AI destroy?” This is a valid, but defensive and incomplete, question. It frames innovation as a zero-sum threat rather than asking the more productive question: “How can we deploy these tools to make our work more meaningful, creative and valuable?”

Finally, there’s a tranche of questions related to some of the technical aspects of AI, like “Can we even trust what it says?” This concern over AI “hallucinations,” while a real technical challenge, is often used to dismiss the technology’s proven, superhuman accuracy in specific, life-saving domains, such as in medical settings.

A common thread ties these inquiries together. These questions are passive. They ask, “What will AI do to us?”

TFWM flips the script. It demands we ask the active and urgent question: “What will we fail to do with AI?”

The real risk isn’t just that AI might go wrong. The real, measurable risk is that we won’t let it go right. The tragedy is not a robot uprising that makes for good sci-fi but bad public policy; it’s the preventable cancer, the missed storm warning, the failed drug trial. The problem isn’t the technology; it’s our failure of political will and, more pointedly, our failure of legal and regulatory imagination.

This brings us to why TFWM needs to be a “thing.”

FOMO, fear of missing out, for all its triviality, is a powerful motivator. It’s a personal anxiety that causes action. It gets you off the couch, into the Lyft, and into the party.

TFWM must become our new civic anxiety. It’s not the fear of missing a party; it’s the fear of being judged by posterity. It is the deep, haunting dread that our grandchildren will look back at this moment of historic opportunity and ask us, “You had the tools to solve this. Why didn’t you?”

This perspective creates the political will we desperately need. It reframes our entire approach to governance. It shifts the burden of proof from innovators to the status quo. The question is no longer, “Can you prove this new tool is 100% perfect and carries zero risk?” The question becomes, “Can you prove that our current system — with all its human error, bias, cost, and delay — is better than the alternative?”

YOLO, FOMO and TL;DR are shorthand for navigating our personal lives. TFWM is the shorthand for our collective responsibility. The status quo is not a safe, neutral position. It is an active choice, and it has a body count. The future we’ll miss isn’t inevitable. It’s a decision. And right now, we are deciding to miss it every single day we fail to act.

Kevin Frazier is an AI Innovation and Law Fellow at Texas Law and author of the Appleseed AI substack. He wrote this column The Fulcrum, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news platform covering efforts to fix our governing systems.

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Petrochemical Expansion in Texas Will Fall Heavily on Communities of Color, Study Finds 

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This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.

Researchers at Texas Southern University in Houston have analyzed demographic data around the locations of almost 100 industrial facilities proposed statewide and found that about 90 percent are located in counties with higher concentrations of people of color and families in poverty than statewide averages. 

In a report released this month, the Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at Texas Southern also found that nearly half of those proposed industrial sites—petrochemicals plants for manufacturing plastics, coastal export terminals, refineries and other facilities—were already above the 90th percentile for pollution exposure under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Toxics Release Inventory, a measurement of harmful industrial emissions.

“Texas and other states must end decades-long industrial facility siting where economically disadvantaged fenceline communities serve as dumping grounds,” the report concluded.

Robert Bullard, the center’s director and lead author of the report, first came to prominence as a young sociologist at the university when he produced a 1979 study showing that all five of Houston’s city-owned landfills and six of eight city-owned incinerators were located in Black neighborhoods.  

“The process of the dumping, the siting, has not changed over these 45 years that I’ve been studying this,” Bullard said in an interview. “America is segregated and so is pollution.”

Planned projects reviewed in the Bullard Center’s latest work, “Green Light to Pollute in Texas,“ cluster primarily around the state’s existing refinery hubs on the Gulf Coast, such as Port Arthur, the Houston Ship Channel, Freeport and Corpus Christi. Nearly half are located near neighborhoods that already face among the highest levels of toxic air pollution in the country, the report said.

These petrochemical complexes have grown rapidly in the last decade, fueled by abundant oil and gas from the fracking boom in the oilfields of Texas and beyond. Plastics industries dominated that growth. Plastics producers in Texas last year sold $61.5 billion in materials and employed 54,000 people, more than any other state, according to a recent report by the American Chemistry Council, an industry group.

“Plastics are essential to modern life, powering our economy,” said Ross Eisenberg, president of America’s Plastic Makers, in a statement on the report in September. “Plastics manufacturing means good jobs, strong wages, and sustained investment in America’s future.”

However, those good jobs and wages typically go to people who live farther from the petrochemical plants, not to adjacent communities, Bullard said. “Industries say they are providing jobs and increased tax base. But it’s just the opposite for the communities on the fencelines,” he said. “They have higher poverty rates, higher unemployment rates.”

Most plant workers commute in and out, leaving nearby neighborhoods to bear the impacts of toxic emissions without the economic benefits, said Bullard, 79, who has been called the father of environmental justice for his pioneering research. 

Airborne emissions associated with petrochemical production include known human carcinogens, such as  benzene, ethylene oxide, vinyl chloride and 1,3-butadiene, as well as soot and other harmful chemicals. Wastewater from petrochemical production often contains heavy metals or acids.

Making Plastic in Texas

The Bullard Center considered 114 projects related to oil and gas in Texas proposed at 89 different locations as of February 2024, including coastal export terminals, refineries and seawater desalination plants that would supply water for petrochemical production

Plastics projects dominated the list. Most are expansions of existing complexes. Companies in Texas have proposed five new ethylene “crackers,” units that break natural gas into the building blocks of plastics. 

Units to produce polyethylene—the most common type of plastic used in bottles and bags—are proposed by Dow and Chevron Phillips Chemical near Freeport, by Baystar near Houston, by Motiva Enterprises and Chevron Phillips Chemical near Port Arthur and by Equistar Chemicals near Corpus Christi. Formosa Plastics plans several new units at its sprawling complex in the town of Point Comfort, including a reactor to make PVC plastic, used in piping, plumbing and construction materials.

“The continued expansion of the petrochemical industry in Texas most heavily impacts low-income communities of color that are already overburdened by industrial pollution,” said Mike Belliveau, founder of a group called Bend the Curve, which advocates for reduced plastic consumption.

Since the Bullard Center sourced its data last year, petrochemical markets have cooled as the decade-long buildout that followed the fracking boom begins to slow. The world now faces an oversupply of plastics, Belliveau said, and several projects in Texas have been cancelled. 

Those include three units for polycarbonate plastics—rigid material used for automotive parts, electronic casings, food containers and windows—proposed near Freeport by PetroLogistics and near Houston by LyondellBassell and Covestro, which also cancelled a new plant to make polyurethane, used in car cushions and other foam. ExxonMobil paused plans for an ethylene cracker in Point Comfort this year. 

“Demand for plastics is still growing, but it’s slowing,” said Belliveau, a former research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “It’s less than what the industry was banking on.” 

To evaluate project locations, the Bullard Center identified a three-mile radius around each proposed facility, then analyzed them according to several demographic indexes and indicators with the EPA’s EJScreen tool. (That tool has since been pulled down by the Trump administration amid a purge of federal efforts to address environmental disparities by race.)

While nearly half of the locations in Texas ranked above the 90th percentile for pollution exposure, three locations near Port Arthur and Beaumont—both cities where Black people make up the largest demographic—ranked in the 99th percentile for toxic emissions. Ten others were in the 98th.

According to permitting documents included in the report, one ethylene unit at the massive Chevron Phillips Chemical Complex in Port Arthur is authorized to emit 612 tons per year of volatile organic compounds, a category including scores of gases with varying health impacts, as well as 192 tons per year of airborne soot.  

The company is seeking to build an additional furnace that would add another 15 tons per year of VOCs and 8 tons per year of soot, plus other pollutants. 

“At what level of pollution will there be some threshold?” Bullard said. “This community has a toxic burden that needs to be addressed in a way that no other facility would be coming in to add to the pollution.”

The post Petrochemical Expansion in Texas Will Fall Heavily on Communities of Color, Study Finds  appeared first on The Texas Observer.

Former Honduras President Hernández freed after Trump pardon

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TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras (AP) — Former Honduras President Juan Orlando Hernández, sentenced last year to 45 years in prison for his role in helping drug traffickers move hundreds of tons of cocaine to the United States, was released from prison following a pardon from President Donald Trump, his wife announced Tuesday.

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The U.S. Bureau of Prisons inmate website showed that Hernández was released from U.S. Penitentiary, Hazelton in West Virginia on Monday and a spokesperson for the bureau on Tuesday confirmed his release.

His wife Ana García thanked Trump for pardoning Hernández via the social platform X early Tuesday.

“After almost four years of pain, of waiting and difficult challenges, my husband Juan Orlando Hernández RETURNED to being a free man, thanks to the presidential pardon granted by President Donald Trump,” García’s post said. She included a picture of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons listing for Hernández indicating his release.

Hernández was arrested at the request of the United States in February 2022, weeks after handing over power to current President Xiomara Castro.

Two years later, he was sentenced to 45 years in prison in a New York federal courtroom for taking bribes from drug traffickers so they could safely move some 400 tons of cocaine north through Honduras to the United States.

Hernández maintained throughout that he was innocent and the victim of revenge by drug traffickers he had helped extradite to the United States.

On Sunday, Trump was asked about why he pardoned Hernandez by reporters traveling with him on Air Force One.

“I was asked by Honduras, many of the people of Honduras,” Trump said.

“The people of Honduras really thought he was set up, and it was a terrible thing,” he said.

“They basically said he was a drug dealer because he was the president of the country. And they said it was a Biden administration set-up. And I looked at the facts and I agreed with them.”

The pardon promised by Trump days before Honduras’ presidential election injected a new element into the contest that some said helped the candidate from his National Party Nasry Asfura, one of the leaders as the vote count proceeded Tuesday.

Mass killings in 2025 in the US hit the lowest level since 2006

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By REBECCA BOONE, Associated Press

A shooting last weekend at a children’s birthday party in California that left four dead was the 17th mass killing this year — the lowest number recorded since 2006, according to a database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University.

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Experts warn that the drop doesn’t necessarily mean safer days are here to stay and that it could simply represent a return to average levels.

“Sir Isaac Newton never studied crime, but he says ‘What goes up must come down,’” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University. The current drop in numbers is more likely what statisticians call a “regression to the mean,” he said, representing a return to more average crime levels after an unusual spike in mass killings in 2018 and 2019.

“Will 2026 see a decline?” Fox said. “I wouldn’t bet on it. What goes down must also go back up.”

The mass killings — defined as incidents in which four or more people are killed in a 24-hour period, not including the killer — are tracked in the database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University. Fox, who manages the database, says mass killings were down about 24% this year compared to 2024, which was also about a 20% drop compared to 2023.

Mass killings are rare, and that means the numbers are volatile, said James Densley, a professor of at Metropolitan State University in Minnesota.

“Because there’s only a few dozen mass killings in a year, a small change could look like a wave or a collapse,” when really it’s just a return to more typical levels, Densley said. “2025 looks really good in historical context, but we can’t pretend like that means the problem is gone for good.”

Decline in rates of homicide and violent crime might be a factor

But there are some things that might be contributing to the drop, Densley said, including an overall decline in homicide and violent crime rates, which peaked during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improvements in the immediate response to mass shootings and other mass casualty incidents could also be playing a part, he said.

“We had the horrible Annunciation School shooting here in Minnesota back in August, and that case wouldn’t even fit the mass killing definition because there were only two people killed but over 20 injured,” Densley said. “But I happen to know from the response on the ground here, that the reason only two people were killed is because of the bleeding control and trauma response by the first responders. And it happened on the doorsteps of some of the best children’s hospitals in the country.”

Crime is complex, and academics are not great at assessing the reasons behind crime rate changes, said Eric Madfis, a professor of criminal justice at University of Washington-Tacoma.

“It’s multicausal. It’s never going to be just one thing. People are still debating why homicide rates went down in the 1990s,” Madfis said. “It is true that gun violence and gun violence deaths are down, but we still have exceedingly high rates and numbers of mass shootings compared to anywhere else in the world.”

More states are dedicating funding to school threat assessments, with 22 states mandating the practice in recent years, Madfis said, and that could be preventing some school shootings, though it wouldn’t have an impact on mass killings elsewhere. None of the mass killings recorded in the database so far in 2025 took place in schools, and only one mass killing at a school was recorded in 2024.

Most of those who die in mass killings are shot

About 82% of this year’s mass killings involved a firearm. Since 2006, 3,234 people have died in mass killings — and 81% of them were shooting victims.

Christopher Carita, a former detective with the Fort Lauderdale Police Department and a senior training specialist with gun safety organization 97Percent, said the Safer Communities Act passed in 2022 included millions of dollars of funding for gun violence protection programs. Some states used the money to create social supports for people at risk of committing violence, and others used it for things like law enforcement and threat assessment programs. That flexibility has been key to reducing gun violence rates, he said.

“It’s always been framed as either a ‘gun problem’ or a ‘people problem’ and that’s been very contentious,” Carita said. “I feel like for the first time, we’re looking at gun violence as a ‘both, and’ problem nationally.”

Focusing on extreme events like mass killings runs the risk of “missing the forest for the trees,” said Emma Fridel, an assistant professor of criminology at Florida State University. “If you look at the deaths from firearms, both in homicides and suicides, the numbers are staggering. We lose the same number of people every year to gun violence as the number of casualties we experienced in the Korean War. The number one cause of death for children is guns.

“Mass killings should be viewed as one part of the issue, rather than the outcome of interest,” she said.