There’s a term that gets tossed around in NBA circles — “16-game player.”
The idea is simple: While many players can produce during the 82-game regular season, the list of guys who can help you win 16 playoff games and hold a trophy at postseason’s end is far, far shorter.
Are you physical enough? Tough enough? Clutch enough? Does your game translate to a higher-intensity brand of basketball that features an increased attention to detail, more desperation and a looser whistle?
If the answer to those questions is “Yes,” then you’re inherently worth more to an organization, particularly those in a position to contend for a championship. That is the ultimate goal of this whole thing.
But that evaluation is a difficult one to make, because the sample size you’re working from is often so small that each new performance feels like a referendum one way or the other.
Julius Randle struggled mightily in the NBA playoffs prior to this season. In 15 career playoff games prior to his arrival in Minnesota, Randle was shooting just 34% from the field and 28% from 3-point range, while tallying more turnovers (58) than assists (56).
Yet he was arguably Minnesota’s best player in the Wolves’ series victories over the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Golden State forward Draymond Green heaped praise upon Randle after the Minnesota forward got the best of the multi-time Defensive Player of the Year.
But one series later, Randle has struggled mightily against the Oklahoma City Thunder’s tenacious defense through the first four games of the Western Conference Finals.
It’s been the opposite for Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He burst onto the scene as a defensive demon in the first round of the playoffs in 2023, then lit up Phoenix in Round 1 a year ago.
Since then, the postseason results have been sporadic. Last year’s West Finals served as a low point for the 3-and-D wing during his Timberwolves tenure.
Alexander-Walker really struggled against the Lakers this spring, and was up and down against Golden State. But he has been a star in these West Finals, serving as Minnesota’s best player in a narrow Game 4 defeat. He’s averaging 15 points a game in this series, shooting 53% from distance.
Donte DiVincenzo was a playoff revelation for the New York Knicks a year ago, scoring 25-plus points four times in New York’s second-round series against the Pacers in 2024. That playoff run made him the most intriguing returning piece for Minnesota in the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.
But the sharpshooter struggled mightily for much of these playoffs until finally breaking through on Monday for a 21-point performance.
Perceptions change with each series, each game, each shot attempt.
Whether that’s fair, or a good process, isn’t entirely clear. The reality is Oklahoma City plays a physical brand of defense that is good at the point of attack with off-ball helpers who can poke the ball away if you overdribble and rim protectors patrolling the paint. That’s the exact formula that can make life difficult for someone like Randle.
But the Thunder also make life difficult for basically every top scorer. The good news for Randle as he marches toward an offseason, when he’ll face a difficult decision about whether to except a player option to remain in Minnesota for next year or enter free agency, is he did deliver in the two series prior to this one, so a more positive track record has developed.
But had the Warriors beaten the L.A. Clippers on the final day of the regular season, Minnesota likely would have played Oklahoma City a round earlier, and maybe these individual performances would have been even more harshly judged as “same old playoff Randle” when it clearly looks to be more of a matchup-based result, with production that ebbs and flows, as is frequently the case in basketball.
So, perhaps it’s on a team when it’s making a decision about players — as Minnesota will likely have to do this summer with Alexander-Walker, Randle and Naz Reid — to figure out not how somehow will perform in the playoffs at-large, but what they can bring in certain matchups that the organization suspects will come about on its road to a championship.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts after being called for a foul against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Target Center on May 26, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Donte DiVincenzo #0 of the Minnesota Timberwolves comes pulls down a rebound during the second quarter of a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Two of the Western Conference Finals of the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center on May 22, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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