Since 1990, MLB’s winningest team has won the World Series just seven times.

The two teams tied for the most single-season wins in MLB history — the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners — both had losing playoff records. The 2006 title-winning St. Louis Cardinals had a winning percentage of .516, just above average. And as recently as 2021, the Atlanta Braves — with the 12th-most regular season wins — won the World Series.

The postseason is home to the unpredictable, where healthy rosters and timely performances reign supreme. If anything is to blame for MLB’s best getting bounced this year — the Orioles (101-61), Braves (104-58) and Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62) combined to go 1-9 in the divisional round — it’s the randomness of the playoffs and those teams falling flat for a few days in October, not the five-day break each of them received.

“It’s a round bat and a round ball and a round Earth that we live in, and sometimes, the ball just doesn’t bounce your way,” Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said Thursday.

If the best teams were guaranteed to advance, the postseason would have little mystique. And that unknown, both beloved and despised come autumn, reared its head again this year, leaving the league’s three 100-win teams in its wake.

In other words: That’s baseball.

The Braves and Dodgers lost to divisional foes whom they finished at least 14 games ahead of in the regular season. The Orioles were surprisingly swept for the first time since May 2022.

“Still irritated, still frustrated, still pissed,” manager Brandon Hyde said Thursday.

In the 2001 book “Curve Ball,” an analysis of chance in baseball, authors Jim Albert and Jay Bennett simulated 1,000 seasons, finding that the “best” team won the World Series 21% of the time.

“The cream won’t generally rise to the top,” the authors wrote.

Anything can happen in a best-of-five or best-of-seven series and postseason baseball is so revered for the improbability of it all. It’s what makes October heroes: No one could have expected Tito Landrum, who retired with 13 career home runs, to belt the Orioles to victory in the 1983 American League Championship Series.

The playoffs are so gripping because of it. If one team is expected to beat another 55% of the time, the worse club will still win a seven-game series four times out of 10, mathematician Leonard Mlodinow wrote in his 2009 book, “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives.”

The sheer chance of it offers a reminder that just because the Orioles, Braves and Dodgers won 100 games does not mean they were shoo-ins for the next round. It’s a challenge for any team, no matter how good, to win a postseason series.

Over the past two years, since MLB adopted a new playoff system that gave four teams byes through the first round, only three of those eight clubs have advanced past the division series. Some have pointed to rust as the culprit: In a departure from routine, these teams had five days off, which could have a detrimental effect.

The argument holds water. A team successfully churning along all season in a rhythm suddenly changes its schedule. Such a variable could hurt a well-oiled group.

For a team accustomed to playing each day, five days off is a long time. “I don’t think it helps,” Hyde said. “Let’s put it that way.”

But the bye still provides an advantage as those top teams skip the wild-card round. Sure, only three of eight teams (38%) that received byes over the past two years have reached the championship series, but a lower percentage of wild-card teams (5 of 16, or 31%) have done the same, since they must win twice as many series.

Plus, just because the bye-receiving teams fell short this season doesn’t mean they will in future. It’s only been two years, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters Thursday in Philadelphia.

“That is absolutely too small a sample to draw any inferences,” David Berri, a sports and economics professor at Southern Utah University, wrote in an email to The Baltimore Sun.

Before the season ended, many saw the break as a bonus. Orioles outfielder Aaron Hicks noted one big advantage: A team can restart its rotation while other teams might enter a division series with tired arms.

Elias said Thursday he had monitored how other top seeds were faring but shied against using the bye “as an excuse.”

“I do not believe that was the difference between us winning or getting swept in the ALDS the way we did,” he said. “I don’t have a big opinion about it.”

Perhaps the intermission threw the Orioles off a bit. But it was their starting pitchers — players accustomed to several days off between outings — who turned in the poorest performances. Twice, an Orioles starter did not complete the second inning.

Before ALDS Game 2, outfielder Anthony Santander said he didn’t think the playoff format had caused the Orioles problems. Backup catcher James McCann pointed to the Tampa Bay Rays, who held the second-best AL record but were eliminated from the postseason before the divisional round, as evidence of a potential flaw in the system. But he didn’t cite the five-day layoff as an issue while speaking to reporters before Game 3.

“As far as, is there a reason we’re down 0-2? Is it because we had the days off? I don’t think so,” he said. “We easily could have had guys banged up and that [could have given] us time for them to get healthy. I think that’s just a way to change the narrative and that’s not what we’re going to do.”

It’s easy to point to a pattern and blame a new system. But it’s not yet apparent that the format is at fault.

Perhaps next year, the Orioles will win fewer regular-season games but advance farther in the playoffs. That’s baseball.

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The Orioles won 101 regular-season games thanks to a roster with top-to-bottom depth. But their peers recognized some individual standouts.

Three Baltimore players were named finalists for the Major League Baseball Players Association’s Players Choice Awards, as voted on by players across the league.

Infielder Gunnar Henderson was nominated for American League Outstanding Rookie alongside Texas third baseman Josh Jung and Boston first baseman Triston Casas. The favorite for the league’s official Rookie of the Year honor, Henderson overcame a slow start to his first full season to bat .255 with an .814 OPS, 28 home runs, 29 doubles, nine triples and 10 steals. Although Henderson could be the Orioles’ first AL Rookie of the Year since 1989, teammate Ryan Mountcastle won the MLBPA’s version of the honor in 2021.

In his second season, right-hander Kyle Bradish joins New York’s Gerrit Cole and Minnesota’s Sonny Gray as the finalists to be AL Outstanding Pitcher. Cole likely takes this honor and the league’s Cy Young Award, but Bradish’s placement speaks to how fellow players viewed his season. In 30 starts, Bradish posted a 2.83 ERA, including a 2.34 second-half ERA that led all AL starters.

First baseman Ryan O’Hearn could be the second Oriole in three years to be the AL Comeback Player after Trey Mancini received the honor in 2021. After hitting .211 with sporadic playing over the previous four years with the Kansas City Royals, O’Hearn broke out with Baltimore. He spent much of the year as the Orioles’ primary cleanup hitter against right-handed starters, batting .289 with an .801 OPS while setting or matching career highs in most offensive statistics. He’s up against two pitchers for the MLBPA award — Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow, who missed most of 2022 because of Tommy John elbow reconstruction, and Chicago’s Liam Hendriks, who was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma over the offseason.

Phil Bradley, an outfielder who played with Baltimore in 1989 and 1990, is a finalist for the Curt Flood Award, which recognizes a former player “who in the image of Flood demonstrated a selfless, longtime devotion to the Players Association and advancement of Players’ rights.”

Winners will be announced Nov. 2 during the 6 p.m. edition of ESPN’s SportsCenter. The league’s official awards — Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player — will be announced in mid-November on MLB Network.

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During a news conference last week, Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias did not detail the team’s offseason goals. He didn’t commit to a higher payroll next season — although that seems all but guaranteed — nor did he specify any specific additions he hopes to make.

“We’re looking to get better,” he said, “and we also have to look to maintain.”

But after a stellar 2023 campaign, attention in Baltimore has shifted to 2024, a season in which, for the first time in years, many fans will enter the season expecting a playoff appearance. Here’s an early look at how the Orioles’ 2024 roster could shift in the coming months.

Pending free agents

Five players — all of whom the Orioles acquired within the last year — will soon hit free agency: right-handed pitchers Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami, infielder Adam Frazier and outfielder Aaron Hicks.

It’s unlikely, however, they’ll be back with the Orioles next year. In some cases, like with Frazier and Hicks, the team has enough young, major league-ready talent at crowded positions that signing a veteran seems unlikely. And even if it might behoove the team to sign one of the pitchers, like Gibson, the Orioles have not built the bulk of their roster in free agency. Only two players on this year’s American League Division Series roster (Gibson and Frazier) were signed as offseason free agents.

It’s likely the Orioles will add at least a couple of free agents this winter, but odds are it won’t be any of those five.

“We’ll see what happens. They’re at a certain point in their careers where they’ve earned the right to go and do whatever’s the best situation for their families,” manager Brandon Hyde said.

In addition to those veterans, three Orioles minor leaguers — pitcher Austin Voth and catchers Anthony Bemboom and José Godoy — recently elected free agency.

Arbitration-eligible players

The Orioles have 16 arbitration-eligible players, tied for the second-most in the major leagues. Those players, who have between three and six years of MLB service time, are all expected to earn more in 2024, which will likely result in the Orioles spending more on player payroll — especially if they add a few free agents. Baltimore finished the 2023 season with the third-lowest payroll in MLB.

Elias didn’t individually discuss the team’s many arbitration-eligible players, but said that having so many is “kind of an earmark of having a good roster these days.”

“It’s a really good group of players and they had good seasons and they’re going to get raises through the system,” Elias said.

The Orioles are expected to keep most, but not necessarily all, of their eligible players and they’ll have until Nov. 17 to decide which players to nontender, meaning decline to offer a contract. Here are the 16 players, sorted by how much MLB Trade Rumors projects they’ll make via arbitration.

Anthony Santander ($12.7 million)
Cedric Mullins ($6.4)
Austin Hays ($6.1)
John Means ($5.9)
Ryan Mountcastle ($4.2)
Ryan O’Hearn ($3.0)
Jorge Mateo ($2.9)
Tyler Wells ($2.3)
Danny Coulombe ($2.2)
Ramón Urías ($2.0)
Cole Irvin ($1.8)
Dillon Tate ($1.5)
Cionel Pérez ($1.3)
Jacob Webb ($1.2)
Keegan Akin ($800K)
Ryan McKenna ($740K)

Positions of need

The Orioles will likely return two first basemen. They’re long on infielders, especially if baseball’s top prospect, Jackson Holliday, spends the bulk of the year with the big league club. They’re loaded in the outfield, too, with several capable players — Hays, Mullins, Santander and rookies Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad — filling the three spots. They have two catchers under contract, too.

Thus, the bulk of the Orioles’ offseason additions will likely come on the mound. With All-Star closer Félix Bautista out for 2024 as he recovers from Tommy John elbow reconstruction, Baltimore will need to find someone to fill his big shoes. That could come in the form of someone on the current roster — Yennier Cano and DL Hall are possibilities — or from outside of it.

“Another question that’s been on my mind,” Elias said of identifying Bautista’s replacement. “That is a massive hole. I don’t even think we felt it totally just with how the games went after he got hurt. It’s going to be tough to replace him, so we’re going to bring all of our brain power towards answering that question.”

The Orioles will likely seek to add at least one starting pitcher, too. They’ll bring back right-handers Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer, as well as lefty John Means and could turn to Hall or Wells in a starting role. However, bolstering the rotation with an offseason addition — via free agency or trade — would make sense.

Asked Thursday if Bradish, who had one of the best seasons in the majors this past year, was a true ace, Hyde said that while he isn’t yet, he could eventually be.

“It’s hard to be a true No. 1,” Hyde said. “So, does [Bradish] have the ability to? Absolutely. Does Grayson have the ability to? Absolutely. They’re a ways away, you know what I mean? They’re a ways away.”

Last year, the Orioles signed Gibson to a one-year, $10 million contract. Baltimore will likely again pursue a starter; whether it will offer a larger, longer contract for a top-of-the-line pitcher remains to be seen.

Help is coming from the farm — again

As has become customary for the Orioles, the club is expected to again have the sport’s top prospect make his major league debut in 2024. On the heels of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, Holliday — who will turn 20 in December and was one of the youngest players in Triple-A this year — will likely play for Baltimore this upcoming season, giving the Orioles another talented position player.

Cowser and Kjerstad, both of whom are still classified as rookies, could also boost next year’s roster. Asked if both of them (who might not get consistent playing time in a crowded outfield) could break spring training camp with the big league club, Elias said yes.

Some prospects might, however, improve the 2024 Orioles in another way — as trade pieces. With plenty of young, talented position players — others include infielder Joey Ortiz, slugging third baseman Coby Mayo and 19-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo — the Orioles could swap a couple in exchange for a starting pitcher.

Important dates

Early November — Free agents can officially sign with new teams five days after the conclusion of the World Series.

Nov. 17 — By this deadline, the Orioles must determine which arbitration-eligible players they will nontender.

Dec. 3-6 — MLB executives will convene at the winter meetings, held in Nashville this year, to discuss league business and potential trades.

Dec. 6 — Rule 5 draft. An often overlooked portion of the offseason, teams can add certain minor leaguers from other clubs to their 40-man roster via the draft, which is how the Orioles originally acquired Santander and Wells.

Feb. 24, 2024 — The Orioles play their first spring training game of the 2024 campaign.

March 28, 2024 — Camden Yards hosts the Los Angeles Angels on opening day.

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The Orioles’ 2023 season is over, but the awards to recognize their unprecedented campaign are just beginning.

Three Orioles — catcher Adley Rutschman, first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and left fielder Austin Hays — were named American League Gold Glove Award finalists, Rawlings announced Wednesday afternoon.

Three finalists at each position were chosen in each league by the 30 MLB managers and six coaches from each team — votes that make up 75% of the process — and the Society for American Baseball Research Defensive Index, which accounts for the remaining 25%.

Gold Glove Award winners will be revealed Nov. 5 at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN’s “Baseball Tonight.”

Rutschman was one of six catchers in the AL to start more than 100 games behind the plate this season and ended his second big league campaign rated as an above-average backstop in each of the four major metrics measured from Statcast tracking data.

His 22% caught stealing rate is narrowly above average, but his 1.91-second pop time — the time it takes him from catching a pitch to the ball reaching the middle infielder’s glove at second base — ranked fourth in the AL among backstops with more than 30 stolen base attempts against them. His pitch framing, according to Baseball Savant, ranks in the top 20% in the major leagues, and his five catcher-framing runs rank eighth in the AL. He’s also a plus blocker, ranking in the 85th percentile in Statcast’s pitch-blocking metric and eighth in the AL in blocks above average per game.

Only two starting catchers in the AL rank better than Rutschman as both a framer and a thrower: Seattle’s Cal Raleigh and Texas’ Jonah Heim. Raleigh isn’t a finalist — Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk is instead — while Heim and Rutschman will go head to head again for an award after Heim, an Orioles draftee in 2013, won the fan vote over Baltimore’s backstop to start the All-Star Game.

But Rutschman’s value as a catcher is perhaps derived just as much from his handling of a young Orioles pitching staff that took leaps in 2023. The 25-year-old has been often credited by his pitchers and manager Brandon Hyde for his ability to help craft a game plan, call pitches and provide support throughout the game. After innings end, he meets his pitcher at the foul line for positive reinforcement — an unusual yet distinctive act he does no matter the circumstances.

Hays was perhaps the most likely Oriole to be a Gold Glove finalist after standing out in Camden Yards’ abnormally large left field. Mountcastle, meanwhile, is a surprise after playing just 90 games and 769 1/3 innings at first base this season.

Hyde frequently talked about the importance of having Hays in Oriole Park’s left field — the sport’s largest after the organization moved back the wall before the 2022 season — to the success of Baltimore’s young pitching staff. Hays’ seven defensive runs saved ranked third among AL left fielders. The only two ahead of him — Cleveland’s Steven Kwan (15) and Toronto’s Daulton Varsho (11) — are also finalists. Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average ranked Hays’ range as slightly below league average, but his arm is rated by Statcast as one of the sport’s best with an arm value in the top 10% and arm strength in the top 20%. Hays, an All-Star after a torrid first half, totaled only four outfield assists, but that’s largely because opposing base runners rarely tried to take an extra base against him.

For Mountcastle, being a Gold Glove finalist at first base would’ve been a shock just a few years ago. Drafted as a shortstop out of high school in 2015, Mountcastle moved to third base as a minor leaguer in 2018. He then spent the following three seasons playing first base and corner outfield before permanently moving to first last season. Of the 12 AL first basemen with more than 600 innings played, only five had a positive DRS, with Mountcastle’s two ranked third on that list. The only two ahead of him are New York’s Anthony Rizzo (three) and Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe (two), both of whom are also finalists. According to OAA, Mountcastle’s minus-1 ranked sixth among AL first basemen, including behind teammate Ryan O’Hearn at three.

Infielder Gunnar Henderson and center fielder Cedric Mullins were not named finalists. Mullins, a finalist in 2022, started just 101 games in center field this season after landing on the injured list twice with groin strains. Henderson split his season between shortstop and third base, hurting his chances of being a finalist at either, but he also didn’t make the final cut for the utility spot despite ranking fifth among AL infielders in DRS, which was awarded for the first time last year.

However, Henderson’s offseason won’t be without hardware. The 22-year-old is the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award next month after leading the 101-win Orioles in Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement at 6.3.

Starting pitcher Kyle Bradish is expected to get votes for AL Cy Young, Rutschman could be the AL’s Silver Slugger at catcher, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn is a consideration for AL Comeback Player of the Year and closer Félix Bautista is worthy of Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year consideration. Hyde is expected to win AL Manager of the Year, and executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias is a strong candidate for MLB Executive of the Year.

On Tuesday, Henderson, Bradish and O’Hearn were finalists for the player-voted Major League Baseball Players Association’s Players Choice Awards. Henderson was nominated for AL Outstanding Rookie, Bradish for AL Outstanding Pitcher and O’Hearn for AL Comeback Player.

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