Amir Sommer: I am half Israeli and half Palestinian. This war feels as if it’s killing me twice

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As the love child of a Palestinian father and an Israeli mother, all I want to say these days is: Stop, you are killing me twice.

In the last three months, the most notorious conflict of our time has reached new levels of insanity. We are witnessing wholesale violations of international laws in the form of 30-second clips featuring snuff videos, fake news and war crimes. And in reaction to this vast scale of human suffering, we’ve lost our ability to engage in principled thought and discussion.

Since the war in Gaza began, the side experiencing the most suffering is automatically deemed righteous. You’re forced to pick a side, because throwing around words such as “equality” and “coexistence” suddenly feels like spouting nonsense. Stay silent, and bam, you’re a traitor. So, the only strategy this war seems to allow is to line up and justify one side’s violence. Which is pretty ironic since that’s exactly what we’re all supposedly against, if we really want peace.

Vietnam, Korea, Northern Ireland, the Iran-Iraq war, World Wars I and II — those deadly conflicts all found resolution. This raises the question: Why is this one still going on?

Perhaps it’s because this conflict is multifaceted, encompassing intricate layers of struggle. It is bound to the profound concept of home, the glorification of revenge, post-memory reflections of the Holocaust and the Nakba in 1948. A demographic conflict in which the Palestinian minority was once the majority, and the Israeli majority is acting like a minority. The land’s story, the connection to nature — and of course, the ancient religions resident there.

The fight over this land has been very textual since Day One. The place that God promised Abraham, where Jesus was crucified and Muhammad ascended to heaven — all of these moments are parts of the top bestselling books on this planet.

It was the most natural thing for me, someone who was raised among three religions, to become a writer. Given that my parents’ marriage was illegal, since interfaith marriages performed within Israel, where I grew up, are not recognized by law, I was considered a bastard. There were very few mixed heritage children like me, so I have always found solace in books, treating them like my lost siblings.

In early October, I made my first trip to the U.S., a lifelong dream. I had come to Los Angeles for a reading of my forthcoming book, “Disco for Peace,” where I was a special guest at an event of PoEtikLA, in Silver Lake. Just several minutes before the event started, I received news about what the media called the “Israeli 9/11.”

Being half Israeli and half Palestinian, I am accustomed to hearing distressing news. Whenever both places are mentioned, it’s rarely positive. That’s why when my girlfriend informed me of a new crisis in the Middle East, my response was nonchalant: “What’s new?”

She insisted, “No, this time it’s serious. Call your family.”

In that moment, I felt a mix of sadness and confusion, grappling with the question: Well, who do I call first? My Israeli side or the Palestinian?

Right before the reading started, the host asked for a minute of silence in honor of the people who died in Israel. It all started to click.

Leap forward three months: I have lost people from both sides, though fortunately not from my immediate family.

The range of my loss spans from pen pals I saw only on Zoom because of the border wall, background characters in my life, individuals from the artistic community, and those who shared my upbringing and were more than just childhood friends. I lost someone I once considered one of my best friends during high school. I even saw an acquaintance in one of the gruesome videos circulating on social media. The specter of death has never been as palpable as it is now.

But even in times of bitter grief, we must remember that cruelty doesn’t have a single ID card. We’re complex characters, heroes to some, villains to others, just like our nations.

That’s crystal clear to me, at least: Both sides not only committed violent atrocities but also guilt-tripped the world. However, saying this out loud isn’t easy. The whole world is now experiencing what has been my life struggle — deciding whether I’m Israeli or Palestinian (and getting backlash for whichever I choose). Protecting the home by wielding an Uzi or demonstrating for liberation with stones in hand.

Only a few years before this war did I start to find a key to existing with these two halves within me. I left the Middle East and moved to Europe. It felt like coming out of the closet when I could say openly and more easily: I am half Palestinian, half Israeli. That’s why this war terrifies me so much — the fear of relapsing into my old identity crisis.

I want to live in a world where I don’t have to forsake any part of my identity or history. We must not extinguish the possibility of peace, which for individuals like me is as essential as oxygen, water and bread.

The solution lies not just in a state or two states, but in a state of mind. It begins with how we think, read, and listen to ourselves and others. In my inner storm, patience and tolerance are my guiding lights. Perhaps the world needs to start handling external conflicts with the gentler way we deal with our own internal ones. Having embraced both identities, I wish the Canaanite land could do the same.

Amir Sommer is an award-winning poet and author based in Berlin. He wrote this column for the Los Angeles Times.

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11 more of our favorite new St. Paul restaurants

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We’re not quite done finished talking about last year — so many great new restaurants opened that we have split our list of outstanding newbies into two.

(Our first list focused on global eats.)

So, as promised, here are 11 more restaurants that opened in 2023 that you should put on your list to try.

Herbst Eatery & Farm Stand

Chicken liver mousse at Herbst Eatery & Farm Stand in St. Paul’s St. Anthony neighborhood. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

This stylish eatery and market puts most current farm-to-table restaurants to shame, both in its close ties to the driftless-region farmers who supply it and in the quality and creativity of its menus.

It’s where I took my chef friend when she visited, and she admired both their sleek furnishings and chef Eric Simpson’s attention to detail. Every dish had layers of flavor and technique. The cocktail list, with its full-, low- and no-proof options and a stellar wine list add to the experience. Take your food-lover friends, or anyone you want to impress, here. Just plan ahead, because reservations can be scarce, for very good reason.

The menu rotates seasonally, but we’ve enjoyed the chicken liver mousse twice, and all the handmade pastas and entrees have been outstanding.

Herbst Eatery & Farm Stand: 779 Raymond Ave., St. Paul; 651-340-0254; herbstsaintpaul.com

— J.F.

Mandalay Kitchen

Mohinga, a traditional Burmese fish soup, is served with catfish cake, egg, and crispy chickpeas at Mandalay Kitchen in Frogtown on Nov. 14, 2023. (Jared Kaufman / Pioneer Press)

For years now, St. Paul has been home to one of the world’s largest diaspora groups of Karen people, an ethnic group native to Myanmar. And just in the past year alone, the community has celebrated a new grocery market, shared folktales in one of the nation’s first professional Karen theatrical productions, and now, added a restaurant serving traditional Karen and Burmese foods.

Mandalay Kitchen, in the former Marc Heu Patisserie spot on University and Western avenues, serves classic dishes like sugarcane juice, a green tea-leaf salad called lahpet thoke, and a Burmese fish stew called mohinga.

And for the restaurant’s owner, Chris Tunbaw, food is clearly a family affair. The restaurant is dedicated to Tunbaw’s late grandmother Daphne, who is also honored in a new mural on an exterior wall. And during one afternoon a few weeks after the restaurant opened, in November, who was cooking in the kitchen? Tunbaw’s own mom, Pandaw.

Mandalay Kitchen: 383 W. University Ave., St. Paul; 651-219-5887; mandalaykitchenstp.com

— J.K.

King Coil

Fancy sausage pizza at King Coil Spirits in St. Paul’s Vandalia Tower. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

I love this new spot in the Vandalia Tower development for meeting friends from the other side of the river.

The sleek, modern space from the folks behind Lake Monster Brewing features tasty Roman-style pizzas, plenty of seating and a really staggering cocktail list, considering they make every component in every glass in house.

The pizzas here have a thicker crust than the usual Midwest version, but thinner than Detroit-style. Specialty pies vary from the ubiquitous pepperoni and hot honey to the Lake Monster, which features whitefish pate, capers, dill and more. And trust us when we tell you to order the carrots.

King Coil: 550 Vandalia St., Suite 140, St. Paul; kingcoilspirits.com

— J.F.

Bar Cart

The menu at Bar+Cart Lounge and Restaurant is divided into four categories; the lamb chops with red lentil dal, shown here on Feb. 10, 2023, fall into the ‘homey’ category of entrees. In addition to an excellent cocktail program, the new restaurant also serves lighter fare, appetizer spreads, and footlong hoagies, including the Alabama chicken with arugula in the background. (Jared Kaufman / Pioneer Press)

Bar+Cart Lounge is one of my favorite recent additions to the St. Paul dining (and drinking) scene. And since opening almost exactly one year ago, it’s only gotten better.

The star of the show is the cocktail list, which has graduated from the back of the menu to its own booklet, with several pages’ worth of complex drinks. Too many options? Maybe. But somehow, each listing manages to feel worthwhile and high-quality. There are no throwaways here, no cheap shots — literally or figuratively — and the drinks themselves are strong and bold, just as they should be.

The food menu is great too, of course; every flavor feels carefully considered. There were a few stumbles during a visit in February, but those have been evened out by now. The coconut curry sea bass is really incredible. The fish is cooked perfectly — crispier and juicier than I thought possible — and the sauce is rich and silky. The moist chicken schnitzel and the lamb chops (with red lentil dal, one of the most creative side dishes I’ve had in recent memory) are also both standouts. And I’m admittedly a burrata agnostic at best, but the roasted beet and burrata appetizer could convert me into a believer.

Bar+Cart Lounge: 1571 Grand Ave., St. Paul; 952-600-7920; barcartlounge.com

— J.K.

Wrestaurant at the Palace

Meatball pizza at Wrestaurant at the Palace. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

For selfish reasons, this might be my favorite opening of the year. I love going to shows at the Palace, and this is the perfect place to pre-game with a fortifying Detroit-style pizza and some excellent cocktails.

But the menu has much more than just pizza — it has one of the better Caesar salads in the metro, a killer smash burger and lots of fun, shareable appetizers, including tender, juicy wings (we loved the dry rub) and Pizza Rowls, which are adorably shaped like egg rolls. If you know the history behind the pizza roll (and every good Minnesotan should), you know that the first of these snacks were made by Duluth entrepreneur Jeno Paulucci from egg-roll wrappers and pizza ingredients.

Anyway, Wrestaurant is a great addition to downtown St. Paul in general, and the cute interior is a vast upgrade from Wild Tymes, which had definitely run its course.

Wrestaurant at the Palace: 33 W. Seventh Place, St. Paul; 952-600-5611; wrestaurantatthepalace.com

— J.F.

High Hat

The High Hat, a new breakfast cafe in Cathedral Hill, serves Southwest-inspired fare like the huevos divorciados, shown here on Sept. 17, 2023. The restaurant is owned by Michael Noyes, a former manager at W.A. Frost & Co. (Jared Kaufman / Pioneer Press)

Cathedral Hill mourned the losses of Bon Vie Bistro and A Piece of Cake bakery when the twin businesses closed earlier this year, but The High Hat is a worthy successor.

The jazzy breakfast spot still serves fresh-pressed juices, coffee drinks and delicious pastries like caramel rolls and cinnamon rolls. The food menu is Southwest-inspired, with twists on traditional diner fare like chorizo-and-cornbread eggs Benedict and hearty blue corn pancakes with fried plantains baked inside.

With walls painted a moody teal and floral wallpaper behind the bar — plus a constantly spinning turntable; diners themselves can cue up the next record — the High Hat is exactly the kind of place I want to let the morning slip away over brunch with friends.

The High Hat: 485 Selby Ave., St. Paul; 651-528-7941; thehighhatmn.com

— J.K.

Soul Lao

Several dishes from Soul Lao including a steak salad, green beans and tofu are shown at the restaurant in Highland Park on Dec. 10, 2023. Previously a food truck, Soul Lao opened its permanent home this year. (Jared Kaufman / Pioneer Press)

To be perfectly honest, we didn’t really need to visit Soul Lao’s new permanent home in Highland Park to tell you their food is great. We already know: Eric Phothisanh and Sabrina Boualaphanh have been operating the business as a popular food truck and pop-up kitchen for several years.

But for you, dear reader? We’ll go to the ends of the Earth — or at least West Seventh Street — to do our journalistic duty.

Soul Lao is particularly well-known for chicken wings, which are based on Phothisanh’s grandmother’s recipe, but don’t overlook the rest of the menu. Their sauteed green beans and snow peas are tossed with a fermented soy sauce that gives the vegetables a sweet, funky richness I cannot get enough of. And in the laab seen, a steak salad, the house-made padaek fish sauce brings out a delightful earthiness in the beef.

There are a few seats at Soul Lao, but the real move is to bring your food to the attached brewery, Wandering Leaf Brewing. Find a table amid the jungle of vines and plants, grab a beer (some of which are Soul Lao collabs) and dig in.

Soul Lao: 2465 W. Seventh St., St. Paul; 651-363-3469; soullao.com

— J.K.

Station No. 6 at Rosetown American Legion

The burger at Station No. 6 at Rosetown American Legion. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

These are burger cities, and this is a burger joint — inside a very old-school American Legion.

As with 328 Grill, an established space with regular customers has received the gift of good bar food in this partnership with Josh Matthews. Station No. 6 started as a food truck, but quickly outgrew his wheeled home, regularly selling out while parked in suburban strip-mall parking lots.

The menu is very food-truck-like, meaning succinct and singularly focused. Choose from a variety of smash burgers, a few fried chicken sandwiches and smoked wings. All are executed well.

It’s a great partnership, too. The legion gets more customers, and Matthews has room to grow and a new and appreciative customer base. As a thank-you, veterans were offered a free burger on Veterans Day.

Station No. 6 at Rosetown American Legion: 700 W. County Road C, Roseville; stationno6foodtruck.com

— J.F.

Little Brazil

The panini-pressed hot dog sandwich at Little Brazil, shown on Dec. 15, 2023, also includes corn, shoestring potatoes and a sweet and herbaceous tomato sauce. The cafe and market opened this fall to give Brazilians a taste of home and introduce the country’s food to Americans, owner Charles Spies said. (Jared Kaufman / Pioneer Press)

In opening Little Brazil a couple of months ago, Charles Spies set himself a goal: Serve affordable Brazilian street food, both to give Brazilians a taste of home and to share the country’s food culture with Americans.

Indeed, the small cafe and market was buzzy on a recent weekday afternoon, with conversation flowing in both English and Portuguese. And get this: Lunch — enough food for two, plus imported Brazilian coffee that’s nutty and oh-so-strong — came in under $25.

On the food menu, you’ll find plenty of frequent-flier ingredients like shredded chicken, potatoes, creamy cheese and corn. The empadão de frango brings these together in a pot pie-style dish; the coxinha reimagines them (sans corn, and a little more plainly) as a breaded and fried croquette.

The sandwich list is the centerpiece of the menu, with options like a classic Brazilian mortadella sandwich and another with roasted pork loin. The panini-pressed hot dog sandwich, unexpectedly, feels like Brazil’s answer to the meatball sub: A snappy dog that’s sliced up and mixed with cheese, corn and shoestring potatoes in a sweet and herbaceous tomato sauce.

Little Brazil: 230 Spring St., St. Paul; 612-709-9190; littlebrazilmn.com

— J.K.

Momento

The 378 Maria (the former Strip Club Meat and Fish address) is a grassfed New York Strip at Momento in downtown St. Paul. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

The first iteration of this restaurant in the former Pazzaluna space was a little all over the place, and I think downtown diners were really missing an upscale Italian restaurant.

So owners Morrissey Hospitality, who are never afraid to pivot, closed the restaurant for a few weeks, changed the design to be a little warmer and less cafeteria-like, and got a chef (Aaron Uban, formerly of Strip Club Meat and Fish, Heartland and Kincaid’s) who could pull off an Italian menu.

The result is pretty good — we enjoyed the peas and toast (a fresh take on fancy toast), fresh pastas and the grass-fed New York Strip (an ode to Strip Club Meat and Fish). However, garlic-sensitive folks, beware of the multitude of menu items that contain toum, a Lebanese garlic sauce that here is more garlicky than any other version I have tried.

On the bright side, the restaurant (and all Morrissey Hospitality eateries) has an extensive and very good selection of alcohol-free cocktails, something my husband and I appreciated very much during the first week of dry January.

Momento: 360 St. Peter St., St. Paul; 651-467-0000; momento-stp.com

— J.F.

Big E

California Love, an egg sandwich from chef Justin Sutherland’s new eatery Big E on St. Paul’s Grand Avenue. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

There was a bit of controversy over the prices at this egg-sandwich-focused eatery on Grand Avenue, but I think that social media commenters discounted inflation and the cost of labor in these times.

Granted, $14-$17 for an egg sandwich isn’t cheap, but these are quality, filling sandwiches that rise above the usual meat-egg-cheese offerings.

We especially love the steak-and-egg sandwich It Was All a Dream, which is slathered in grape jelly for a little touch of sweet and sour. And the California Love, which we expected to hate because it eschews the egg’s tasty yolk, is so chock full of fresh veggies that we didn’t even notice.

And for those on a budget, the restaurant is now offering a smash burger for just $5 from 2 to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday.

Big E: 750 Grand Ave., St. Paul; 651-212-5390; eatbige.com

— J.F.

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Lloyd Austin controversy not fazing Hill Dems

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Top Hill Democrats want more information about the controversy swirling around Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization — and they don’t have it yet.

The party’s top member on the House Armed Services Committee, Adam Smith of Washington, said he’s already heard from the White House. Smith said in an interview that the Pentagon chief still needs to answer key questions about his decision to keep his illness and treatment secret from the White House and Congress for days before revealing his prostate cancer diagnosis.

But for all their confusion and angst, Democrats largely aren’t worried about political blowback from Austin’s undisclosed absence and his failure to inform the Biden administration about the complications from his cancer surgery. The revelation of Austin’s illness is prompting sympathy from Democrats who appear willing to wait — for now — before fretting about the broader consequences from the episode.

“He should recover and return. And then what we have to look at is the impact of what happened and, I think, make a determination: Was there any serious gaps in coverage?” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Jack Reed (D-R.I.), though he didn’t rule out hearings on the matter. The White House appears to be treating the firestorm similarly, with little evidence of much damage control on the Hill.

More than a half-dozen Democratic lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, told POLITICO in interviews Wednesday that they haven’t heard much of anything from the Biden administration so far. In addition to Smith, Reed said he’d spoken to Austin and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan about the situation but added that he’s not aware of the White House doing any widespread outreach.

Despite the brouhaha over Austin’s absence, Hill Democrats have largely eschewed calls for his resignation as they eye oversight efforts. Only one swing-seat first-term Democrat, Rep. Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania, broke from that pack on Wednesday to say Austin should step aside over his handling of his hospital stay.

The party’s relative silence suggests that Democrats may be placing a bet on the controversy over Austin’s absence: With Republicans already pursuing impeachments of Biden and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, they’re less likely to try to turn the revelations about Austin’s treatment and complications into a political cudgel.

The gravity of Austin’s cancer diagnosis is also potentially cooling some congressional appetites to battle over the matter. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, echoed others in the party by sharing concern for the defense chief’s situation.

“You don’t want to stigmatize it,” he said, noting the prominence of prostate cancer in the Black community. “But at the same time, you don’t want to downplay the significance of him not revealing that he was struggling with this to the president immediately.”

He chalked the secrecy up to Austin’s “introverted” nature: “He probably didn’t feel comfortable talking about it. But he is the Secretary of Defense.”

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) echoed that sentiment, telling POLITICO that “a private man kept something private,” though Austin “should have disclosed” given his public-facing position.

“I don’t think there’s much more to the story than what should be the repercussions. That’s up to the president,” Welch said.

Though most Republicans aren’t willing to press for Austin’s ouster yet, GOP lawmakers still want answers and many are pushing for a public hearing to air out the details of how the incident transpired. And the GOP-led House Armed Services Committee has already launched a formal investigation into Austin’s hospitalization.

Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) isn’t committing to a hearing either, however, as his panel begins the probe. He said he aimed to keep the investigation bipartisan, adding that Smith is “as upset about this as I am.”

“The good news is, it’s very bipartisan,” Rogers said. “I’m not going to lead some kind of an effort [that] doesn’t have Adam involved.”

Smith isn’t the only committee Democrat who wants to see a bipartisan effort to get more answers from the Pentagon: “I certainly think it bears looking into,” seconded Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), a panel member.

Senate Armed Services Committee Republicans, led by ranking member Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), are also pushing for more information. All 12 Armed Services Republicans sent a letter to Austin with 17 questions on his hospitalization and transfer of responsibilities, arguing that the Pentagon violated federal laws governing vacancies.

“[T]he apparent failure to even notify your lawful successor in this case is a massive failure of judgment and negligence,” the Republicans wrote to Austin. “It is an intolerable breach of trust with the American people at a dangerous moment for U.S. national security.”

No matter how outraged Republicans may be about the handling of Austin’s secretive treatment, there are major barriers to action.

The congressional to-do list is already packed — including with impeachment inquiries into Biden and Mayorkas. House Republicans’ supremely thin majority and a gaping divide between the House and Senate GOP doesn’t help the case for impeaching Austin either.

Given Republicans’ shaky control over the House, any high-pressure vote like an impeachment will need Republicans to be in lockstep — which is a tall order for the deeply divided conference. As concerned as Democrats are about Austin’s conduct, it’s almost unthinkable that any would join a GOP push to punish him.

The most likely path for Congress, then, is a series of high-profile hearings in both chambers where lawmakers dig into the communication breakdown while Austin underwent a medical procedure and later returned to the hospital with complications. Lawmakers want to probe Austin and his staff and deputies about the decision not to inform the White House that the Cabinet secretary was ill and unable to perform his duties for a period.

While the Democratic-controlled Senate may well hold its own hearing, the chamber’s Republicans aren’t biting on bids to impeach Austin. Though some are calling on him to resign, many said this week that they’re skeptical of trying to out Austin before Congress has its chance to conduct oversight.

“With Austin, I think we need to hear the whole story,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who noted that it isn’t top of the agenda. “We have so many other things we need to spend time on,” she said.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) called Austin’s handling of the situation “just a really sloppy failure” that may raise “some protocol issues” but warned that her House colleagues’ “instinctive reaction is knee jerk: let’s just impeach.”

Whether or not he agrees to testify at any hearings about his hospitalization, Austin is due to appear in Congress a handful of times each year. Those testimonies are a routine part of the appropriations process for funding government agencies and departments.

So no matter what Austin does, his illness is likely to haunt him in any future interactions with Congress.

“If I were the president, me and Secretary Austin, after he recovers from his surgery … he’s got some ‘splainin to do. If he’s working for me,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Joe Gould contributed to this report.

How Nikki Haley Just Might Beat Donald Trump

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Sure, at the moment, it looks like Donald Trump will win the 2024 Republican nomination. But it smells a bit like 2016, when there was near unanimity in the press and the political class that he didn’t have a shot in hell against Hillary Clinton.

In an unstable, unconventional time, it’s not inconceivable to imagine a scenario in which the bottom suddenly falls out for the former president and a rival ambushes him on his way to the GOP convention in Milwaukee. Like Nikki Haley.

Let’s review the last quarter-century of presidential elections.

The GOP’s Electoral College lock has been picked. The Democratic Blue Wall has been breached. Ohio, a longtime bellwether, has gone red. Georgia and Arizona, longtime GOP stalwarts, have gone blue. Jeb Bush, a GOP juggernaut, lost to a reality TV star. Joe Biden, a dead letter after the first 2020 primaries, is now president.

If we’ve learned anything, it’s that the laws of political gravity or axioms about elected politics don’t always apply anymore. Traditional voting habits have been thrown out the window. Polling has proved unreliable. And yet here we are, again, operating with utter certainty that the GOP primary is already cooked.

This isn’t a prediction or a guarantee that Haley will beat Trump. But if it happens, here’s how it would work.

Her uphill climb begins next Monday in the Iowa caucuses, where Haley needs a solid second- or third-place finish. In her best-case scenario, the former U.N. ambassador finishes a strong second — which sounds the death knell for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — and holds Trump to under 50 percent.

While she hasn’t concentrated on Iowa like DeSantis, who shows signs of having a formidable ground game there, there is an outline for Haley to follow in the state. In 2016, Marco Rubio won just 5 of Iowa’s 99 counties but he won nearly a quarter of the vote. He delivered a strong third-place showing — less than 2,500 votes behind Trump — by running best in the more populous parts of the state, particularly in the Des Moines suburbs and in counties with high levels of educational attainment.

For better and for worse, Haley and Rubio share a political profile: roughly the same age, the children of immigrants and forged in the GOP’s tea party era. As South Carolina governor in 2016, Haley endorsed Rubio before the South Carolina primary, a coup for the Florida senator at the time since she was wildly popular at home. Haley “exemplifies what I want the Republican Party to be known for in the 21st century — vibrant, reform-oriented, optimistic, upwardly mobile,” Rubio told reporters at the time.

As long as Haley places or shows in Iowa — virtually no one in the state, and not even the campaigns themselves, think Trump will lose — she is in the hunt. In fact, she could join Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Trump in the pantheon of GOP nominees who lost in Iowa.

After Iowa, it’s on to New Hampshire, where expectations will be higher. She’s already nipping at Trump’s heels in the latest polls, so anything less than a second-place finish could prove fatal to Haley’s campaign.

But New Hampshire is also uniquely suited for her. Polls suggest it is the early state where Trump is weakest. She has spent time and directed resources there and it shows — she has doubled her support over the past two months. Her efforts have been bolstered by popular GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who is pulling out all the stops on her behalf. (At 13 years old, Sununu saw the power of a New Hampshire governor to sway the state results when his father, then-Gov. John Sununu, helped lift George H.W. Bush to victory in 1988.)

This is where she needs to bleed Trump and show Republicans in the states to come — most notably in her home state, which votes a month later — that there is a viable alternative.

New Hampshire election rules work to Haley’s advantage since independent voters can take part in the GOP primary. According to the most recent UNH/CNN Granite State Poll, she leads Trump by a wide margin among these undeclared voters. In New Hampshire, this isn’t a small slice of the electorate. There are more undeclared voters than Republicans or Democrats; 39 percent of the state’s registered voters are undeclared. And without a competitive Democratic primary, the action is on the GOP side, incentivizing undeclared voters to pull a Republican ballot. The last time there wasn’t a competitive Democratic contest, in 2012, independents cast nearly half the GOP primary vote.

Chris Christie’s departure from the race Wednesday was the necessary first step. With the most vocal anti-Trump Republican gone, now there is a possibility she can consolidate the vote against the frontrunner; together, their support surpassed Trump’s in the latest Granite State Poll. And two-thirds of Christie’s supporters indicated Haley is their second choice. A Haley victory in New Hampshire isn’t out of the question; the Granite State Poll shows her within 7 points of Trump.

Then comes her home state, South Carolina, which is scheduled to vote almost exactly a month later. Technically, Nevada looms in-between but the confusing details — a non-binding state-run Feb. 6 primary that the Trump-dominated local GOP refuses to acknowledge, followed by a state-party-run caucus two days later — makes it likely that, for momentum purposes, the results of both will be a wash.

In South Carolina, Haley trails Trump by a wide margin in the polls. And the state’s rapid growth — and Trump’s grip on the party — means it’s a different state than when Haley first won the governorship in 2010. But no candidate who’s won statewide twice can be easily dismissed, especially if she’s riding the tiger out of Manchester.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Haley doesn’t have to win New Hampshire, or even South Carolina — she just has to keep it close enough to keep donors and voters convinced there might be a real nomination fight and move forward. Keep in mind that through the end of February, only 142 of the 2,429 delegates will have been allocated, just under 6 percent.

Which means Super Tuesday on March 5 looms as Haley’s moment of truth, the proving ground when the GOP learns once and for all if she’s the viable Trump alternative DeSantis was supposed to be. Roughly two-thirds of all GOP delegates will be allocated in March, the bulk of them on March 5. Among the 15 states up for grabs that day: California, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

A number of Southern Trump strongholds will vote that day — including Alabama, Arkansas and Tennessee — and the demographics of the new Republican Party with its working-class base will work against her. Even as a daughter of the South, she will struggle to expand her footprint beyond the upscale suburbs where GOP support has eroded during the Trump era. But if she’s held her own — and can hold him to under 50 percent in certain states, a critical threshold for delegate allocation purposes — she could scoop up a large swath of delegates.

There’s still a good chance this is where the ride ends. After Super Tuesday, primary season transitions from a momentum play to a delegate slog, and Trump is well-prepared for that, having learned from his 2016 experience.

To go farther, Haley will need a few surprise finishes accompanied by strong performances in some traditionally blue states where beaten-down Republicans might welcome the prospect of a Haley-led ticket and the prospect of diminished down-ticket losses. She’d also probably need a big-state win in a place like California. If she were to accomplish such a feat — and continued to hold her margins over Joe Biden in head-to-head polling matchups — she could justify remaining in the race, especially with Trump’s legal troubles looming in the background.

The convention is another problem entirely, if she makes it that far. As hard as it is to envision a scenario in which she wrests the nomination from Trump, there isn’t much precedent for a nominee with four criminal indictments either. A felony conviction would breathe oxygen into the case for Haley, particularly if it led to a scenario where Haley continued to lead Biden in the polls and Trump was trailing, or where independents, women and suburbanites turned even more sharply against him.

It’s a bank shot, of course. Trump occupies the commanding heights. But there’s no shortage of recent examples where conventional political wisdom was upended or a seemingly unassailable politician’s fortunes took a dramatic turn for the worse.

Consider the fate of Christie himself. In 2011, he was soaring in the polls, and a group of Iowa activists and donors even flew out to New Jersey to urge him to run for president. Five years later, when he did decide to run in Iowa, he came in tenth place. By this year, he didn’t even bother campaigning there because he didn’t have a prayer of winning the state. And he didn’t make it to New Hampshire either.