Interest rate cuts likely this year, but Fed wants more evidence of tamed inflation

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By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER (AP Economics Writer)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his belief Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate this year but that it first wants to see more evidence that inflation is falling sustainably back to the Fed’s 2% target.

Powell noted that inflation is slowing for both goods and services and did not express concern about the government’s latest inflation data, which showed some pickup in price increases in January. Instead, he said that, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation “has eased notably over the past year” even though it remains above the Fed’s target.

The Fed chair’s remarks, in prepared testimony to a House committee, echoed the message he expressed at his most recent news conference on Jan. 31. At that time, he said the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee needed “greater confidence” that inflation was nearly in check before it would reduce its benchmark rate.

On the first of his two days of semi-annual testimony to Congress, Powell also suggested that the Fed faces two roughly equal risks: Cutting rates too soon — which could “result in a reversal of progress” in reducing inflation — or cutting them “too late or too little,” which could weaken the economy and hiring.

The effort to balance those two risks marks a shift from early last year, when the Fed was still rapidly raising its benchmark rate to combat high inflation.

The financial markets are consumed with divining the timing of the Fed’s first cut to its benchmark rate, which stands at a 23-year high of about 5.4%. A rate reduction would likely lead, over time, to lower rates for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and many business loans. Most analysts and investors expect a first rate cut in June, though May remains possible. Fed officials, after their meeting in December, projected that they would cut rates three times this year.

In his remarks Wednesday, Powell offered no hints on the potential timing of rate cuts. Wall Street traders put the likelihood of a rate cut in June at 69%, according to futures prices, up slightly from about 64% a week ago.

Powell also underscored that the Fed’s policymakers believe they are done raising rates, which are likely high enough to restrain the economy and inflation.

The Fed chair’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee coincides with intensified efforts by the Biden administration to stem public frustration with inflation, which erupted three years ago and has left average prices well above where they were before. President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election will pivot in no small part on voter perceptions of his handling of inflation and the overall economy.

The administration is trying to crack down on what it calls unjustified price hikes by many large companies. Biden recently attacked “shrinkflation,” whereby a company shrinks the contents of a product rather than raise its price. The president has also sought to limit so-called “junk fees,” which in effect raise the prices that consumers pay.

Overall inflation has steadily cooled, having measured at just 2.4% in January compared with a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, down from a peak of 7.1% in 2022. Yet recent economic data have complicated the picture and clouded the outlook for rate cuts.

Attention, Chicago White Sox fans: SoxFest will return in January 2025

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SoxFest will return next year, the Chicago White Sox announced Friday.

The fan event — last held in 2020 — will take place Jan. 24-25, 2025. Location, official on-sale dates, programming and scheduled appearances will be announced later.

SoxFest has been a gathering that provides fans the opportunity to connect with former and current players, coaches and prospects while taking a look toward the upcoming season.

In a release announcing the news, the Sox said SoxFest 2025 “returns with the same community-building spirit, featuring new and reimagined programming and experiences to immerse guests into the world of White Sox baseball.”

The most recent SoxFest — the 28th edition — occurred in late January 2020. The 2021 event was canceled because of the COVID-19 pandemic. 2022 SoxFest also was canceled, with the Sox noting at the time the challenges of projecting and managing COVID-19-related protocols in an indoor setting.

SoxFest did not take place last year “due to several factors,” the Sox said at the time. The Cubs have held their annual fan fest the last two years.

Friday’s announcement comes on the same day of a gathering for season ticket holders at the Field Museum.

The returning SoxFest will mark a pair of milestones in the franchise’s history in 2025 — the 20-year anniversary of the 2005 World Series championship team and the 125-year anniversary of the Chicago White Sox organization.

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Recipes for 3 hearty vegetarian stews that don’t take hours on the stove

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A slowly bubbling pot of stew on a cold winter evening, steam rising and scents wafting, is the epitome of cozy contentment.

There’s a fine line between a stew, a braise and a soup, and it’s quite subjective: Sometimes only a few spoons of broth make the difference. To my mind, a stew needs to be thick enough to eat with a fork but coated with plenty of velvety sauce so there’s a puddle left at the bottom of the bowl, easily mopped up with a piece of crusty bread (or soaked up by rice, noodles or mashed potatoes).

But what’s in the pot? A popular answer would be meat, beef, lamb or pork, simmering gently in an aromatic bath. But many other ingredients benefit from long, slow cooking, and a pot of chickpeas or beets will steam up your kitchen as pleasantly and fill your belly just as heartily as chicken or beef. Since I’ve been eating less meat over the last few years, I’ve often turned to vegetable-based stews to fortify myself and my family against the icy nights.

One benefit of vegetable-only stews is that they generally cook more quickly than meaty ones, which can take hours to soften the tough cuts traditionally called for. Otherwise, vegetable stews are cooked much like their meat-filled cousins. A base of chopped aromatic vegetables or alliums is sautéed, then liquid and more vegetables or beans or grains are added, and the mixture is simmered until tender. Starchy ingredients like potatoes or beans in the pot will help thicken the broth, turning it rich and silky. Broth or wine bump up the flavors.

Each of the three stews here has a distinct character that shows off the range of what’s possible.

Red Lentil Barley Stew

Red lentil-barley stew. Fennel and leeks add a fragrant complexity to this homey lentil-barley stew. Food styled by Cyd Raftus McDowell. (Armando Rafael/The New York Times)

By Melissa Clark

Warm spices, fennel and leeks give this rib-sticking stew a deep, complex character. Feel free to adjust the liquid to taste. Adding a little more makes it brothier and more souplike, suitable for eating with a spoon. Or let it rest a bit. As it sits, the barley will absorb all of the liquid, making it easily forkable. Be sure to serve this with lemon wedges on the side, since the lentils and barley benefit greatly from a bright jolt right at the end.

Yield: 8 servings

Total time: 1 1/2 to 2 hours

INGREDIENTS

3 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, more for drizzling
2 leeks, white and light green parts, sliced into half-moons, or 1 cup sliced onion
3 carrots, diced
1 cup chopped fennel, fronds reserved
1 bunch cilantro, leaves and stems mostly separated and chopped (don’t worry too much about leaves and stems mingling)
3 garlic cloves, minced
1 1/2 teaspoons fine sea or table salt, more to taste
2 tablespoons tomato paste
1 tablespoon baharat or garam masala
1/2 teaspoon ground turmeric
1 cinnamon stick
2 quarts vegetable or chicken broth
1 cup pearled barley
1 cup red lentils
1 to 2 tablespoons fresh lemon juice, plus lemon wedges for serving

DIRECTIONS

In a large Dutch oven or soup pot, heat oil over medium-high. Add leeks and cook, stirring often, until tender and beginning to brown, about 10 minutes.
Stir in carrots, fennel, cilantro stems, garlic and salt. Cook until the garlic is fragrant, about 2 minutes. Stir in tomato paste, baharat, turmeric and cinnamon stick, and cook until the tomato paste begins to caramelize, about 2 minutes.
Add the broth, barley and red lentils, and bring to a boil. Lower heat and simmer for 1 hour to 1 1/2 hours, stirring occasionally, until the barley and lentils are tender. (Add some water if the pot starts to look dry; this can be as thick or soupy as you like.)
Stir in a tablespoon of lemon juice and the chopped cilantro leaves. Taste stew and add salt and lemon juice if needed (you might need a lot more salt if you started with unsalted broth). Serve in bowls drizzled with olive oil and garnished with chopped fennel fronds.

Sweet Potato-Tofu Stew

Sweet potato-tofu stew. This dish, whose flavors are based on Japanese nimono, features tofu two ways: stewed and crisped. Food styled by Cyd Raftus McDowell. (Armando Rafael/The New York Times)

By Melissa Clark

In this dish, based on the flavors of Japanese nimono, umami from soy sauce and shiitake mushrooms rounds out the gentle sweet potatoes, which fall apart and thicken the stew as they simmer. The tofu is added in two ways here. Some of it is marinated in the soy sauce and then stirred into the stew for a soft, pillowy texture. Then, the rest is fried until golden and spooned on top as a crisp garnish. You can also leave the tofu out altogether for a speedier but just as satisfying meal.

Yield: 4 to 6 servings

Total time: 1 hour

INGREDIENTS

3 tablespoons toasted sesame oil, plus more to taste
7 to 8 ounces shiitake mushrooms, stems discarded, caps sliced 1/4-inch-thick
1 medium onion, halved and thinly sliced
1 tablespoon grated fresh ginger
3 pounds sweet potatoes, peeled and cut into 2-inch chunks (about 8 cups)
2 cups dashi (instant or homemade), or use vegetable or chicken broth
1 piece dried kombu, about 5 inches square (optional)
6 tablespoons soy sauce, plus more to taste
3 tablespoons mirin
3 tablespoons sake
2 tablespoons raw or turbinado sugar
1 pound firm tofu, cut into 1-inch cubes
Salt, as needed
1 tablespoon cornstarch
2 to 3 cups baby greens, such as kale, spinach or mustard
1 teaspoon rice wine vinegar, plus more to taste
4 scallions, thinly sliced

DIRECTIONS

In a medium pot, heat 2 tablespoons sesame oil over medium-high. Add mushrooms, onion and ginger, and cook, stirring, until golden and tender, 7 to 10 minutes.
Add sweet potatoes, dashi, kombu (if using), 5 tablespoons soy sauce, the mirin, sake and sugar. Bring to a lively simmer. Place a piece of parchment paper or another cover directly on top of the liquid (see Tip) and simmer gently until the sweet potatoes are very tender, 30 to 35 minutes.
While the stew simmers, line a plate or baking sheet with a clean kitchen towel or paper towels, and place tofu cubes on top. Place another layer of paper towels or wrap up the kitchen towel around the tofu and weigh down with a skillet or plate topped by cans. Let sit for at least 15 minutes. Unwrap and place half of the tofu cubes in a small bowl; drizzle with remaining 1 tablespoon soy sauce and a pinch of salt, and set aside to marinate.
In another bowl, toss remaining tofu with cornstarch. Heat a nonstick or well-seasoned cast-iron skillet over medium-high and add the remaining 1 tablespoon sesame oil. Once the oil is hot, add the tofu cubes and fry until crisp, 5 to 7 minutes, turning them on all sides. Transfer cubes to a paper towel-lined plate and season lightly with salt. (Or you can crisp the tofu in the oven or an air fryer; see Tip.)
When the sweet potatoes are tender, uncover the stew. If the sauce seems thin, simmer uncovered for a few more minutes to reduce it.
Stir the greens into the stew to wilt, then stir in the soy sauce-marinated tofu, any extra soy sauce from the bowl, and the rice wine vinegar. The potatoes may start to fall apart from all the stirring, and that is OK: They’ll thicken the sauce. Taste, adding more salt, soy sauce, sesame oil and rice wine vinegar until it’s bright and savory.
Ladle stew into bowls and top with scallions and crispy tofu. Drizzle with more soy sauce if you like, for serving.

Tips: You’ll need to lay something directly on the top of the stew to allow for some evaporation while keeping the vegetables submerged. You can use parchment paper. Either cut a round just large enough to fit inside your pot, or press a larger piece into the pot touching the surface, and letting the edges stand up. Or, if you can, use a silicone steamer lid or a collapsible steamer basket small enough to fit inside the pot. It’s fine if the lid is smaller than the pot by an inch or so, as long as most of the vegetables stay submerged so they cook evenly.

You can crisp tofu cubes in the air fryer or roast them on an oiled baking sheet in a 425-degree oven. (Drizzle the top of the cubes with a little oil as well; bake for 20 to 25 minutes.)

Spicy Tomato White Bean Stew

Spicy tomato white bean stew. This simple stew relies on canned white beans and comes together in just half an hour. Food styled by Cyd Raftus McDowell. (Armando Rafael/The New York Times)

By Melissa Clark

Made in about half an hour from pantry ingredients, this simple, flexible stew has a velvety texture from canned white beans rounded out by plenty of garlic, olive oil and canned plum tomatoes. The optional bacon adds a brawny heft here, but the stew will be just as hardy without it. Or lighten things up by stirring a few handfuls of quick-cooking greens directly into the pot, which also eliminates any need for a salad on the side.

Yield: 3 to 4 servings

Total time: 30 minutes

INGREDIENTS

1/2 cup diced bacon or pancetta (3 strips; optional)
2 to 4 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, plus more as needed
7 garlic cloves, thinly sliced
1/2 teaspoon red-pepper flakes
1 (14-ounce) can peeled plum tomatoes
3 (15-ounce) cans white beans, drained
1/2 teaspoon fine sea or table salt, plus more to taste
1 cup vegetable or chicken broth
Grated Pecorino Romano, for serving (optional)
Coarsely ground black pepper or smoked paprika, for serving

DIRECTIONS

In a medium pot over medium-high heat, fry the bacon or pancetta until crisp and browned, 3 to 4 minutes. Use a slotted spoon to transfer to a plate, leaving the fat in the pan. Reserve diced bacon or pancetta for garnish. (Skip this step if not using the bacon.)
Add 2 tablespoons oil to the pot if you used the bacon or 4 tablespoons oil if you didn’t. Heat the oil for a few seconds, then add garlic and red-pepper flakes, and cook, stirring, until garlic is pale golden brown, 1 to 2 minutes.
Dice the canned plum tomatoes. Add tomatoes and their liquid to the pot, along with the beans, salt and broth. Let liquid come to a boil, then lower the heat so the mixture is at a rapid simmer. Mash about a quarter of the beans with a potato masher or wooden spoon against the side of the pot, and simmer until the stew has thickened, 7 to 15 minutes. Taste and add more salt if you like.
Serve warm in bowls topped with reserved bacon and grated cheese if you like, and a drizzle of extra-virgin olive oil and a sprinkling of pepper, smoked paprika or both.

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Other voices: The liberal Supremes did America a service

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CHICAGO — We were not surprised that the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday ruled that individual states can’t unilaterally bar Donald Trump from appearing on ballots on the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, the part of the Constitution that bars prior insurrectionists from holding office.

When it comes to federal offices, it’s pretty clear that the framers saw the application, or disabling, of that amendment as the responsibility of Congress. States certainly have the authority to bar their own state officials on those grounds, which is well and good. But having some states allow Trump’s name to stand on a ballot for president of the United States and others bar him on a patchwork basis clearly would have produced a chaotic result, given that what happens in one state would of course impact the other 49. And any reasonable person can see that partisan tit-for-tats would have been the inevitable consequence.

This was always a Hail Mary on the part of those who believe that Trump’s odious actions on that rightly notorious Jan. 6 were those of an insurrectionist and thus disqualifying in his current presidential run. Illinois was among the states that gave it a shot. Most of those who supported this attempt, and we were never among them, likely had convinced themselves that the ends justified their means. Tempting but no cigar.

But we were stirred and pleased that the Supremes acted unanimously in striking down the Colorado Supreme Court ruling, which was the issue on the table here but will extend to other states that have followed suit. The three liberal justices stepped away from their potential partisan corners and also rejected the suggestions of several law professors no doubt of their acquaintance. That puts this issue to bed in the best possible way, and Trump should return the favor by noting that not everything in Washington is some Deep State plot against him.

To his credit, he actually did take some baby steps Monday in that direction. When things go his way, he is capable of marginal magnanimity. It’s when things do not that this big baby’s ruinous side always reveals itself.

In this case, he could learn a thing or two from those liberal justices. They swallowed hard and did their jobs.

Trump for president is a matter for the voters. Such is the price of democracy.

— The Chicago Tribune

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