False alarm.

All the worries that New Jersey Democrats would lose more seats in the state Legislature — and maybe even lose control — Tuesday night quickly evaporated after the polls closed. By midnight, it was clear that whatever red wave crashed upon the Garden State in 2021 had receded in 2023.

Democrats had won or led in every competitive race, not just keeping control of the Legislature but expanding it. Democrats were on track to maintain their 25-15 majority in the Senate and pickup a handful of seats in the Assembly.

“This is a significant accomplishment for Democrats who are overcoming tough political challenges with hard work and effective campaigns,” Senate President Nick Scutari said in a statement.

Here are six takeaways from election night.

Biden didn’t drag down Democrats

After losing seven legislative seats in 2021, including that of Senate President Steve Sweeney, Democrats pointed to the unpopularity of President Joe Biden, among other reasons, for their stinging failures.

Biden is even less popular — he had a 43 percent approval in October 2021 and 41 percent approval in August — but Democrats reclaimed seats they lost two years ago and picked up at least a couple more.

That could be good or bad news for Biden in 2024. The optimistic view is that the results show Democratic resilience. The pessimistic view is that Democrats are resilient despite Biden, and that he as a presidential candidate is weak.

South Jersey is resurgent

South Jersey Democrats avenged Sweeney and held seats they needed to strengthen their relevance in Trenton.

Ed Durr, the unknown trucker who stunned the country by defeating Sweeney in 2021, proved he is not in it for the long haul. He was defeated by John Burzichelli, a longtime Democrat who lost his 3rd District Assembly seat against the Durr ticket two years ago.

Now Burzichelli will take Sweeney’s old seat. His Democratic running mates, Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey Jr., held leads early Wednesday morning but The Associated Press hadn’t called the race in their favor.

In the 4th Legislative District, Assemblymember Paul Moriarty won the Senate seat vacated by Fred Madden (D-Gloucester), who is retiring. Moriarity’s running mates, Dan Hutchinson and Cody Miller, also held leads Wednesday.

The question is what these victories mean for George Norcross, the longtime boss of Democratic politics in South Jersey. He told POLITICO earlier this year he was stepping back from statewide politics after the 2021 losses. But he never left his own backyard and groups affiliated with him campaigned aggressively to reclaim power.

With Norcross’ South Jersey Democrats on track to restore their voting bloc in Trenton, sharp political observers will be looking at the relationship between Norcross and Scutari. Norcross warned ahead of the elections that Scutari “will have to answer” for not delivering financial support in the south, a decision by Sweeney’s replacement after a heated phone call with Norcross.

GOP didn’t win on wind, whales or gas stoves

Republicans attempted to win races by attacking offshore wind, repeatedly citing unfounded links between the industry and dead whales; by labeling attempts to curb the use of natural gas as a gas stove ban; and by blaming rising energy costs on clean energy.

Those issues didn’t win the day, with other things on voters’ minds — or perhaps rising fears of climate change helped neutralize some of the concerns.

Yet even though progressives’ environmental agenda wasn’t torpedoed, some parsing of the results suggest key Democrats who won on Tuesday may want to temper some of Murphy’s most ambitious energy plans and goals.

For instance, along the Jersey Shore, Sen. Vin Gopal, a moderate Democrat, won reelection while distancing himself from the governor’s position on offshore wind. (Some campaign attacks on Gopal probably didn’t work as well because they came from a Republican opponent who in fact worked in the offshore wind industry.)

Burzichell has criticized the governor’s plan to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035.

The issue came amid the near future of offshore wind in New Jersey being all but dead late last month after the Danish developer Orsted pulled out of two of the state’s three planned projects. It dealt a blow to Murphy’s climate goals and put Biden’s in doubt. Murphy has insisted New Jersey will rebound and start building windmills off the coast, but that won’t happen while he is governor.

Democratic upset in a deep-red district

Democrats flipped an Assembly seat in one of the state’s reddest legislative districts, a sign of power from the region’s burgeoning Orthodox Jewish community.

Rabbi Avi Schnall — a longtime Republican who recently became a Democrat — flipped the crimson red 30th Legislative District based in and around Lakewood, one of the state’s largest municipalities which also has a fast-growing Orthodox Jewish population. The new district would have gone for former President Donald Trump by around 35 points in 2020 and not a single town went for Democrats in the 2021 gubernatorial election.

But Schnall’s victory is evidence of the axiom that “all politics is local.”

The Orthodox Jewish community is most concentrated in Lakewood, which showed up for Schnall at the polls overwhelmingly. While Lakewood (and the district) leans socially conservative — and Republican — Schnall’s candidacy centered on getting the Orthodox Jewish community influence in the state’s Democratic Caucus.

“For 20 years, we’ve been represented in the minority party,” Schnall said in a preelection day video. “Things cannot get done. We need to change that. we need to get into the majority party like they’ve been doing for decades in New York.”

Schnall had been endorsed by Lakewood’s Vaad, an influential council of religious and community leaders. His victory elevates the political potency of Lakewood’s Orthodox Jewish community — ensuring their support is courted in future regional and statewide races.

Abortion was a factor

On a night when voters in Ohio overwhelmingly voted to protect abortion rights, Democrats seemed to benefit from the strength of abortion protections and female votes.

They faced relentless attacks on cultural issues like LGBTQ policies in schools and countered with warnings that Republicans would strip women of their right to the procedure if they won. Democrats hit Republicans particularly hard in the 3rd District, resurrecting old social media posts by Durr that said women should “close their legs.”

“This race was the lack of respect for women,” Sweeney told NJ Spotlight News on Tuesday night. “No one can tell me what to do with my body. So why should I be able to tell a woman what to do with her body?”

Attention pivots to ’24 and ’25

And onto next year’s races. First lady Tammy Murphy is considering a run for indicted U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez‘s seat next year, a move she’s been leaning heavily toward in recent weeks. Her entry would set up a Democratic primary with at least Rep. Andy Kim — Menendez has not said whether he’ll seek reelection — and raise scrutiny on the governor’s wife who has had a hand in policy and ran a dark money group for nearly two years.

Then there’s the governor’s race. Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is already in, but others are expected to follow. Sweeney, who eyed a bid in 2017, says he’s still considering whether to run for governor in 2025. But it’s good news for him that South Jersey Democrats had a strong showing Tuesday night.

Here’s what’s known: five or six women of color will comprise the majority of the next St. Paul City Council, all of them self-described progressives.

Isaac Russell’s late-night concession to Saura Jost in Ward 3 has almost cemented a diverse slate of candidates that ran with the backing of the St. Paul Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, likely moving the seven-member council at least a step to the left.

Here’s what remains unknown: Winners have yet to be declared in Ward 1 and Ward 7, the council races that drew the most candidates. Anika Bowie and Cheniqua Johnson led those races, respectively, on election night. Ramsey County Elections officials will reallocate ballots on Friday until a candidate breaks 50% of the vote.

With 40% of the vote, Bowie had a healthy lead over James Lo, the next highest vote-getter in the eight-way Ward 1 race, who had 20% of the vote.

“I am seeing this through,” said Lo, on Wednesday morning. In Ward 7, however, Johnson’s 41-36% lead over Pa Der Vang amounted to an advantage of just 246 ballots out of more than 4,400 votes cast for the six candidates. Dino Guerin, who netted 629 votes, had urged his supporters to rank Vang second.

Here’s what also remains unknown: Who will serve as the next city council president? Likely contenders are Mitra Jalali, arguably the council’s most progressive voice on housing, who had fought for tenant protections and voted against efforts to exempt new construction from rent control for 20 years, and Rebecca Noecker, who voted last fall for the rent control exemptions as part of a wide-ranging swathe of changes to the voter-approved ordinance. A new council president will be chosen in January, succeeding City Council President Amy Brendmoen, who chose not to run for re-election after 12 years in office.

Noecker is currently the council’s vice president, vice chair of the St. Paul Housing and Redevelopment Authority and co-chair of the council’s audit committee.

“I’m definitely ready to step up and help lead the new council,” said Noecker on Wednesday morning. “I’m interested in a number of leadership positions, including president. I want to hear what my current and new colleagues are interested in. There’s lots of leadership opportunity to go around.”

Strong showing for progressives

Progressive causes and candidates had a strong showing Tuesday in St. Paul, Minneapolis and across the country.

St. Paul voters backed the mayor’s proposal to increase the city’s sales tax to fund reconstruction of 24 arterial streets and additional parks projects by a sizable margin — 60% to 40%. The DFL slate won the four seats on the St. Paul School Board, unseating incumbent Zuki Ellis, who ran for re-election without the party endorsement.

Faith in Minnesota, the organizing arm of the progressive interfaith coalition ISAIAH, sent out 100 volunteers to door-knock and campaign for Jost in Ward 3, as well as Hwa Jeong Kim in Ward 5 and Johnson in Ward 7. Other progressive groups also jumped in the races. The Twin Cities Democratic Socialists of America backed both Kim and Ward 6 Council Member Nelsie Yang, both of whom won their races by sizable margins.

Saura Jost, candidate for the Ward 3 seat on the St. Paul City Council in the November 2023 election. (Courtesy of the candidate)

“Our campaign worked incredibly hard with a broad coalition of community members to achieve this win, including faith leaders, labor, educators, climate justice advocates, LGBTQIA2S+ groups, local elected leaders and many more,” said Jost, in a public statement issued shortly before 1 a.m. Wednesday. “Our shared vision for St. Paul is inclusive, equitable and prioritizes sustainability. I’m ready to roll up my sleeves and work with everyone in the ward to build that future.”

At 11:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Russell posted a statement to the platform known as X, previously known as Twitter: “I would like to congratulate Saura Jost on her victory. Saura is clearly someone who cares deeply about her community. While we don’t agree on several issues, it is important that our community moves forward together. Her success is Ward 3’s and St. Paul’s success.”

Council races by ward

Here’s how St. Paul City Council races shaped up:

Ward 1: Winner unknown in an eight-way race.

Ward 2: Rebecca Noecker, with 63% of the vote in a four-way race.

Ward 3: Saura Jost, with 48% of the vote in a four-way race. Isaac Russell, the second-highest vote-getter with 30% of the vote, conceded on election night.

Ward 4: Mitra Jalali, with 79% of the vote in a two-person race.

Ward 5: Hwa Jeong Kim, with 52% of the vote in a four-way race.

Ward 6: Nelsie Yang, with 61% off the vote in a two-person race.

Ward 7: Winner unknown in a six-way race.

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