Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar says he’s quitting for personal and political reasons

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By JILL LAWLESS

LONDON (AP) — Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who made history as his country’s first gay and first biracial leader, announced Wednesday that he is stepping down for reasons that he said were both personal and political.

Varadkar announced Wednesday he is quitting immediately as head of the center-right Fine Gael party, part of Ireland’s coalition government. He’ll be replaced as prime minister in April after a party leadership contest.

“My reasons for stepping down now are personal and political, but mainly political,” Varadkar said, without elaborating. He said he plans to remain in parliament as a backbench lawmaker and has “definite” future plans.

Varadkar, 45, has had two spells as taoiseach, or prime minister — between 2017 and 2020, and again since December 2022 as part of a job-share with Micheál Martin, head of coalition partner Fianna Fáil.

He was the country’s youngest-ever leader when first elected, as well as Ireland’s first openly gay prime minister. Varadkar, whose mother is Irish and father is Indian, was also Ireland’s first biracial taoiseach.

He played a leading role in campaigns to legalize same-sex marriage, approved in a 2015 referendum, and to repeal a ban on abortion, which passed in a vote in 2018.

“I’m proud that we have made the country a more equal and more modern place,” Varadkar said in a resignation statement in Dublin.

Varadkar was first elected to parliament in 2007, and once said he’d quit politics by the age of 50.

He led Ireland during the years after Britain’s 2016 decision to leave the European Union. Brexit had huge implications for Ireland, an EU member that shares a border with the U.K.’s Northern Ireland. U.K.-Ireland relations were strained while hardcore Brexit-backer Boris Johnson was U.K. leader, but have steadied since the arrival of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Varadkar recently returned from Washington, where he met President Joe Biden and other political leaders as part of the Irish prime minister’s traditional St. Patrick’s Day visit to the United States.

Varadkar also has expressed frustration at how polarized politics has become in Ireland, as in other countries.

There have been reports of discontent within Fine Gael, and 10 of the party’s lawmakers, almost a third of the total, have announced they will not run for reelection.

Earlier this month, voters rejected the government’s position in referendums on two constitutional amendments. Changes backed by Varadkar that would have broadened the definition of family and removed language about a woman’s role in the home were resoundingly defeated. The result sparked criticism that the pro-change campaign had been lackluster and confusing.

Even so, his resignation was not widely expected. Martin, the current deputy prime minister, said he’d been “surprised, obviously, when I heard what he was going to do.”

“But I want to take the opportunity to thank him sincerely,” Martin said. “We got on very well.”

Transport Minister Eamon Ryan said he didn’t think the referendum results were “the key factor” in Varadkar’s decision.

“I think there is a gap before the local and European elections (in June) and that timing probably influenced him more than the referendum,” Ryan said.

Martin said Varadkar’s resignation should not trigger an early election, and the three-party coalition government that also includes the Green Party would continue.

Varadkar said he knew his departure would “come as a surprise to many people and a disappointment to some.”

“I know that others will, how shall I put it, cope with the news just fine – that is the great thing about living in a democracy,” he said. “There’s never a right time to resign high office. However, this is as good a time as any.”

Jay Ambrose: The test Biden can’t pass

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President Joe Biden recently gave a rough, tough, eyes-ablaze, here-I-come State of the Union speech that some saw as a definitive disposal of his democratically diagnosed mental vacuity. But wait. The speech simultaneously raised all kinds of questions about Biden, and then, not too many days after that, TV sets were once again spreading news about Biden’s brain gone blank in a different situation, one that had included an impeachment possibility.

The issue in this other go-around was that Biden, during his near half century in the Senate and as vice president, had multiple times challenged laws by pilfering classified information then taken to different, disallowed locations. As part of an investigation he sat down to answer questions from special counsel Robert Hur. They were very easy questions except that for him they were very difficult. He was asked, for instance about when he served as vice president. He did not know. He could not name the years.

While saying in a House hearing that he was not trying to exonerate Biden, Hur did say that Biden’s current confusion made it difficult to structure an evidentially sound case against him and that a jury would likely see him as an old guy more in need of sympathy than penalty. Republican responses at the hearing identified Hur’s intention to drop the case as unfair compared to Trump facing 91 felony counts. The Democrats were upset because they thought the questions could have been clearer and that the Republicans were indulging in partisan, pertinacious, political showmanship.

Getting back to an earlier point, even a Biden who seemed almost competent, alert, focused and full of energy in his State of the Union speech also acted like he wanted to divide us Americans from sea to shining sea. It is not just that he was unbelievably divisive when he talked about what low taxes our rich pay, but either ignorant or lying about the fact seeing that the top 1% pay more money in taxes than 90% of the rest of us put together.

Few seem to know it, but we have what could well be the highest progressive tax in the developed world, meaning that our rich pay a higher rate than in other countries. Biden incredibly calls it low because our rich don’t pay for unrealized gains in the stock market any more than anyone else in our country, seeing as how the Constitution forbids it.

Whether he gets the money constitutionally or not, Biden’s spending allegiance is more than a little scary, seeing as how it will help raise the debt to the point in the distant future when we can no longer pay the interest and therefore will not be able to keep borrowing money. The economy will then quit functioning, and illegally immigrating to Canada will unlikely do any good even if you can afford the gasoline. Something that sums Biden up is his tale about a major deficit cut he arranged when that was actually a consequence of COVID becoming less a threat needing fewer expenditures.

As I am not the first to notice, Biden is a president and his incompetence can have far-reaching effects, such as millions of Afghans facing starvation because his goofs helped reinstall the Taliban as Afghanistan’s totally terrible boss. While it doesn’t follow that Donald Trump should be the next president, there just may be an honest, law-abiding means to help assure a double defeat. Fellow Americans, let’s work on this.

Jay Ambrose is an op-ed columnist for Tribune News Service. Readers may email him at speaktojay@aol.com

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5 easy dinner recipes that feature dill

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Spring is so close I can taste it — or at least I’m trying to taste it as I load up my grocery list with green things like arugula, scallions and leafy herbs. We’re still weeks away from peak spring produce, but you can hustle winter out the door if you lean heavily on ingredients that are available in March but are giving May.

That’s especially true of herbs. To me, dill is the springiest herb, as spring as windy sunshine, a Little League game or the pink blossoms on a magnolia tree. I love its fragrance and its feathery ways, so much so that all five of the dinner recipes below feature it. Also try heaping it on salads, folding it into tuna salad for sandwiches or stirring it into a basic yogurt sauce to serve with meat, fish, grains or vegetables.

Not a dill lover? You can omit it or swap in other herbs in all but the salmon and stew recipes below.

1. Skillet Chicken With Orzo, Dill and Feta

Skillet Chicken With Orzo, Dill and Feta. Feta and dill are a classic pairing in Greek cooking, and they bring special zing to this one-pan chicken dinner. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews. (David Malosh/The New York Times)

Chicken and orzo is a timeless combination, simple and satisfying. In this recipe, you could use chicken thighs, but drumsticks make this dish super family-friendly. Of course, if you have a crowd that doesn’t love the classic feta-dill pairing, feel free to change the toppings. Mint or parsley works just as well for the herbs, and any salty, crumbly cheese is lovely here. You can dress this up as you like with cucumbers or cherry tomatoes, or green olives, served alongside or pitted, chopped and tossed in instead. Besides the obvious perk of its being a one-pot dinner, this recipe yields great leftovers. For the next day’s lunch, pull any remaining chicken off the bone; chop it, skin and all; and toss with the remaining orzo, vegetables and cheese. Know that the orzo — a very small pasta, not rice — soaks up all the liquid and flavor as it sits and cools, so you may need a drizzle of oil and lemon juice over the top to serve it the second day.

By Sarah Copeland

Yield: 4 servings

Total time: 35 minutes, plus marinating

INGREDIENTS

2 lemons
5 tablespoons olive oil
3 garlic cloves, smashed
1 teaspoon kosher salt
1 teaspoon black pepper
2 pounds chicken drumsticks or bone-in thighs
1 yellow onion, peeled and chopped
2 cups orzo
3 cups chicken broth or water
2 small or 1 large thin-skinned (English) cucumbers, chopped
5 ounces feta, crumbled (about 1 1/4 cups)
2 tablespoons chopped fresh dill
Castelvetrano or other green olives, for serving

DIRECTIONS

Cut one of the lemons into wedges and set aside. Juice the remaining lemon and combine with 3 tablespoons olive oil, garlic, salt and pepper in a large resealable plastic bag or in a bowl along with the chicken pieces. Seal and shake the bag (or stir in the bowl) to coat. Set aside for 30 minutes or refrigerate up to overnight.
Heat the remaining 2 tablespoons olive oil in a large cast-iron skillet (see Tip) over medium-high heat. Remove the chicken from the marinade, letting the excess drip off, and cook until lightly golden all over, turning when the chicken releases easily from the pan, about 12 minutes total. Transfer chicken to a plate and set aside.
Add the onion to the pan and stir to coat with the remaining fat. Decrease heat to medium and cook until soft, about 4 minutes. Stir in the orzo and the broth or water. Cook until the liquid is partly absorbed, stirring occasionally, about 5 minutes. Top with the chicken legs and cover with a lid or foil. Continue cooking until the orzo is tender, most of the liquid is absorbed, and the chicken is cooked through, 15 to 20 minutes more, depending on the size of your drumsticks or thighs. Remove from the heat and scatter the cucumber, feta and dill over the top. Serve from the skillet with lemon wedges and olives.

Tip: Some cast-iron skillets come with a matching lid, which is useful for making the skillet operate a bit like a mini stovetop oven, cooking evenly and basting the food with flavor and steam. If you don’t have one, use a lid from another pan, or two layers of thick foil, folded at the center and large enough to cover your pan.

2. Ginger-Dill Salmon

Salmon, gently roasted to a buttery medium-rare, stars in this make-ahead-friendly dish. Fruity citrus and dill join spicy radishes and ginger, and the result is a refreshing, jostling mix of juicy, crunchy, creamy, spicy and sweet. Both the salad and the salmon can be made two days ahead, and everything is good at room temperature or cold. To embellish further, consider baby greens, thinly sliced cucumbers or fennel, roasted beets, soba, tostadas, furikake or chile oil.

By Ali Slagle

Yield: 4 servings

Total time: 25 minutes

INGREDIENTS

1 (1 1/2-pound) salmon fillet, skin-on or skinless
Kosher salt and black pepper
6 tablespoons finely chopped dill
1 (2-inch) piece ginger, scrubbed and finely grated (no need to peel)
2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, plus more for serving
1 grapefruit
2 oranges
6 small radishes, cut into thin wedges
1 avocado
Flaky sea salt, for finishing (optional)

DIRECTIONS

Heat oven to 325 degrees. Line a sheet pan with parchment paper. Pat the salmon dry, then place on the tray skin-side down (if there is skin) and season with salt and pepper.
In a medium bowl, stir together the dill, ginger and olive oil until combined. Season with salt and pepper. Spread half of the dill-ginger mixture over the top of the salmon. (Reserve the remaining dill-ginger mixture.) Bake until cooked through, 15 to 20 minutes. (You’ll know the salmon is done when the fish flakes or an instant-read thermometer inserted into the thickest part is 120 degrees.)
As the salmon cooks, cut off the top and bottom of the grapefruit and set the grapefruit down on one of the cut sides. Follow the curve of the fruit to cut away the peel and pith. Squeeze the peels into the remaining dill-ginger mixture to get out any juice. Cut the fruit in half from top to bottom, then slice into 1/4-inch-thick half-moons and remove the seeds. If your pieces are especially large, halve them again. Transfer the fruit and any juice on the cutting board to the bowl. Repeat with the oranges. Add the radishes, season generously with salt, and stir gently to combine.
Break the salmon into large pieces, and divide across plates with the citrus salad. Peel and pit the avocado, then quarter lengthwise and add to plates. Season with salt. Spoon the juices from the bowl over top, and season with black pepper, another drizzle of olive oil, and flaky sea salt, if using.

3. Sheet-Pan Pierogies With Brussels Sprouts and Kimchi

Sheet-Pan Pierogies With Brussels Sprouts and Kimchi. This recipe plays around with Eastern European staples to delicious effect: pierogies, which are roasted here, rather than pan-fried or boiled, and cabbage, which turns up in the form of kimchi. Food Stylist: Monica Pierini. (Linda Xiao/The New York Times)

This sheet-pan dinner is a sure win in under an hour, with your oven doing most of the heavy lifting. Roasting pierogies yields a crisp, golden skin with a soft, pillowy interior, but if you don’t have pierogies, you could use gnocchi in their place. (No precooking required!) Cooking kimchi at high heat may feel like a surprising move, but it becomes sticky and caramelized, imparting lots of flavor and texture to the final dish. Finally, a dill sour cream adds a fresh richness, but feel free to swap out the sour cream and use a good-quality Greek yogurt, crème fraîche or even buttermilk (it will be runnier, so no need to thin with water).

By Hetty Lui McKinnon

Yield: 4 servings

Total time: 50 minutes

INGREDIENTS

1 pound Brussels sprouts, trimmed and halved
1 1/2 cups cabbage kimchi
5 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, plus more for drizzling
Kosher salt and black pepper
2 (13-ounce) packages fresh or frozen cheese or potato pierogies (no need to thaw)
1/2 small lemon, for serving
Handful of chopped dill, for serving

For the dill sour cream:

3/4 cup sour cream
1/4 cup chopped dill
1 tablespoon extra-virgin olive oil
1 teaspoon lemon juice
1/2 teaspoon kosher salt

DIRECTIONS

Set a rack in the lower third of the oven and heat oven to 400 degrees. Add the Brussels sprouts and kimchi to a rimmed sheet pan. (A small amount of kimchi juice is fine and adds lots of flavor.) Drizzle with 2 tablespoons oil and season with salt and black pepper, and toss to combine.
Prepare the dill sour cream: Combine the sour cream, dill, oil, lemon and salt in a small bowl and whisk to combine. If the cream is too thick, add a tablespoon of water. (You are looking for the consistency of heavy cream.)
After 15 minutes, remove the pan from the oven and add the pierogies. Drizzle everything with the remaining 3 tablespoons oil, and, using a spatula, toss everything together. Return to the oven, and roast until the Brussels sprouts are tender, and the pierogies are puffed and golden, another 20 to 25 minutes. (Don’t flip the pierogies.)
Drizzle with olive oil, scatter with dill, and serve with dill sour cream and halved lemon.

4. Baked Artichoke Pasta With Creamy Goat Cheese

Baked Artichoke Pasta With Creamy Goat Cheese. There are three different creamy cheeses in this molten masterwork – cream cheese, mozzarella and goat – and they bake and bubble with pasta, canned artichoke hearts, scallions and dill for an early-spring dinner. Food Stylist: Barrett Washburne. (Ryan Liebe/The New York Times)

This cheese-filled pasta bake gets its sweet and crunchy topping from a layer of canned fried onions and Parmesan cheese sprinkled on top. Canned artichokes give it a savory depth, while a combination of goat cheese, cream cheese and mozzarella make it wonderfully gooey. Make sure to use plain — not marinated — artichokes, which will be too sharp and acidic here. You’re looking for a mellow richness in this comforting casserole.

By Melissa Clark

Yield: 6 servings

Total time: 45 minutes

INGREDIENTS

Salt, as needed
1 pound fusilli, farfalle or other short pasta
2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, plus more for serving
1 large bunch scallions, thinly sliced, whites and greens separated
4 fat garlic cloves, thinly sliced
1/4 teaspoon red-pepper flakes, plus more for serving
8 ounces cream cheese (1 cup), cubed
6 ounces goat cheese, cubed
2 (14-ounce) cans artichoke hearts (not marinated), drained and cut into 1-inch pieces
2 cups canned fried onions
6 ounces shredded mozzarella cheese (1 1/2 cups)
1 cup chopped parsley
1 cup chopped fresh dill
1 teaspoon ground black pepper
1/2 cup grated Parmesan cheese

DIRECTIONS

Heat oven to 425 degrees and bring a large pot of heavily salted water to a boil. Cook fusilli according to package directions until 3 minutes shy of al dente. Reserve 3 cups pasta water, then drain.
Meanwhile, in a large ovenproof skillet, heat oil in a large skillet over medium heat. Cook scallion whites until softened, about 5 minutes, then add garlic and cook another 1 minute. Stir in red-pepper flakes, and cook another 30 seconds.
Whisk in 1 1/2 cups pasta water, cream cheese and goat cheese, and simmer, whisking, until smooth. Stir in artichokes, 1 cup fried onions, the mozzarella, the parsley, the dill and the reserved scallion greens, then stir in cooked pasta and black pepper. Add more pasta water if it seems too dry; you want this to be fairly liquid, because the pasta will soak up the sauce as it bakes. Taste and add some salt if needed.
Top pasta with remaining cup of fried onions and the Parmesan. Bake until filling is bubbly and onions are browned, about 10 to 20 minutes. Serve drizzled with olive oil, and with more red-pepper flakes on the side if you like.

5. Baghali Ghatogh (Fava Bean Stew)

Baghali Ghatogh (Fava Bean Stew), an updated version of a beloved Iranian stew. Food Stylist; Simon Andrews. (David Malosh/The New York Times)

A popular and beloved stew from northern Iran, baghali ghatogh is an ambassador of early spring produce. Earthy, bright-green fava beans, fragrant dill and an assertive amount of garlic are combined with eggs for a comforting meal. Although shelling and peeling fresh favas is a rite of passage (see Tip), it’s a time-consuming task, given the amount needed here (but if you have the time, go for it!). Frozen fava beans are a worthy substitute, but if they aren’t available, you can use canned butter beans or frozen lima beans. Just enough eggs are used to give the stew some heft, but they shouldn’t overwhelm the vibrant flavors of this verdant stew. The eggs can be incorporated two ways: cracked in and poached, or stirred in to break apart. Baghali ghatogh is typically served over rice with a side of smoked fish and pickled garlic, or with bread.

By Naz Deravian

Yield: 4 to 6 servings

Total time: 40 minutes

INGREDIENTS

1/4 cup olive oil
5 to 10 large garlic cloves (depending on preference), finely grated
1 teaspoon ground turmeric
14 ounces double-peeled frozen fava beans, thawed (see Tip), or 2 (15-ounce) cans butter beans, lima beans or cannellini beans, rinsed
2 large bunches fresh dill (about 8.5 ounces), stems trimmed, finely chopped, or 1/4 cup dried dill
Kosher salt (such as Diamond Crystal) and black pepper
3 to 4 large eggs

DIRECTIONS

Add the oil and garlic to a medium pot, then set it over medium-low heat. Cook the garlic, stirring often, until fragrant and cooked, taking care not to burn it, 5 to 7 minutes. Add the turmeric, stir and cook until fragrant, about 30 seconds. Add the beans, dill, 1 1/2 teaspoons salt and 1/4 teaspoon pepper. Stir gently so the beans don’t break, and cook for about 3 minutes, just so the flavors meld and no longer taste raw.
Increase the heat to medium-high, add enough water to cover the beans, about 2 cups (or more as needed, if you’re using cannellini beans, which absorb more liquid), and bring to a gentle boil. Partially cover with the lid barely ajar, reduce the heat to medium-low, and gently simmer, stirring occasionally, until the beans are tender, but still maintain their shape (no mushy beans please), and the flavors have come to life, about 12 minutes.
Taste the beans and liquid for salt and pepper, and adjust as needed. The stew should be juicy enough to serve over rice, but if it seems too liquidy, remove the lid and cook a little longer to reduce it, keeping in mind that the eggs will also thicken it up. Add a little more water if the stew is too thick.
Increase the heat to medium and add the eggs one at a time. If poaching whole eggs, use 4 eggs and make individual wells in the stew before adding each egg. Cook, uncovered, until the whites set and the yolk is cooked to desired consistency, 3 to 5 minutes. (Alternately, you can stir the eggs in: Add 3 eggs, then run a spoon through each egg to break them apart and cook, slightly covered, until the eggs set, about 3 to 5 minutes.) Taste, add more water if the stew is too thick, adjust seasoning and serve.

Tip: Frozen double peeled fava beans can be found at Iranian and Middle Eastern markets, and online. If using frozen lima beans, use the same amount. If using fresh favas, use 3 pounds fresh fava beans in their pods. Remove the favas from their pod (the first thick layer) as you would to shell fresh green peas. Once podded, bring a small pot of water to a boil and prepare an ice bath. Place the podded beans in the boiling water for a quick minute or two, then drain and dunk in the ice bath. Drain and easily pop the skin off by giving the bean a squeeze.

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Thomas Friedman: What Schumer and Biden got right about Netanyahu

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One of my ironclad rules of journalism is this: When you see an elephant flying, don’t laugh, don’t doubt, don’t sneer — take notes. Something very new and important is happening and we need to understand it.

Last week, I saw an elephant fly: The Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer — an authentic, lifelong supporter of Israel — gave a speech calling on Israelis to hold an election as soon as possible in order to dump Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right Cabinet.

That was one big flying elephant. And it produced predictable responses from the Jewish right (Schumer is a traitor), from Netanyahu (Israel is “not a banana republic”) and from cynics (Schumer’s just cozying up to the Democratic left). All predictable responses, and all wrong responses.

The right response is a question: What has gone so haywire in the U.S.-Netanyahu relationship that it would drive someone as sincerely devoted to Israel’s well-being as Chuck Schumer to call on Israelis to replace Netanyahu — and have his speech, which was smart and sensitive, praised by President Joe Biden himself as a “good speech” outlining concerns shared by “many Americans”?

Israelis and friends of Israel ignore that basic question at their peril.

The answer has to do with a profound shift in U.S. politics and geopolitics when it comes to the Middle East — a shift that the Israel-Hamas war exposed, and a shift that has made Netanyahu’s refusal to articulate any vision for Israeli-Palestinian relations based on two states for two people a threat to both Biden’s foreign policy goals and reelection chances.

Before I explain why, I want to be very clear about one thing that Schumer and Biden have also made clear: The war in the Gaza Strip was forced on Israel by a vicious attack by Hamas on Israeli border communities, populated by the most dovish Israelis in the country’s political spectrum. If you are calling for a “cease-fire now” in Gaza and not a “cease-fire and hostage release now,” it’s making the problem worse. Because it just feeds Israelis’ fears that the world is against them, no matter what they do.

People protesting Israel’s war in Gaza and the many civilian casualties there also have a responsibility to call out Hamas — as Schumer did. It is a murderous organization that has brought death and destruction, and despair for the people of Gaza, and has done as much since the 1980s to destroy the possibility of a two-state solution as any actor in the region.

Back to the argument: Why has Netanyahu become such a problem for the U.S. and Biden geopolitically and politically?

The short answer is that America’s entire Middle East strategy right now — and, I would argue, Israel’s long-term interests — depend on Israel partnering with the non-Hamas Palestinian Authority based in Ramallah, in the West Bank, on the long-term development needs of Palestinians and, ultimately, on a two-state solution. And Netanyahu has expressly ruled that out, along with any other fully formed plan for the morning after in Gaza.

Why do Israel and the U.S. need a Palestinian partner and a vision for a two-state solution? I see six reasons — that’s a lot, but they all bear on Biden’s challenge and political fate:

1. No army has ever had to fight an enemy in such a dense urban environment that includes an estimated 350 to 450 miles of underground tunnels stretching from one end of the war zone to the other. As a result, such urban warfare was always going to cause many casualties among innocent civilians, even with the most careful of armies, let alone one enraged by the killing and kidnapping of so many children, parents and grandparents.

For those Gaza civilians who survive, I’m sure that nothing could compensate for the loss of their children, parents and grandparents. But an expressed willingness by Israel to forge a new relationship between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank with non-Hamas-led Palestinians would at least give some hope to all sides that there would never be a round of bloodletting like this again.

 

2) This is the first big Israeli-Hamas war fought in the age of TikTok. TikTok was designed for a war like this — 15-second videos of the worst human suffering, beamed out constantly.

In the face of that media tsunami, Israel needed a clear message of commitment to a postwar peace process, heading toward two states. Israel had none. As a result, Israel is not only alienating many Arab Americans and Muslim Americans, Biden administration officials say, but it is also in danger of losing support among an entire generation of global youth (including part of the base of the Democratic Party).

 

3) This is not a war of “retaliation,” like all the previous Hamas-Israel wars — in which Israel punished Hamas for rocketing the country but then left it in power when the fighting was over.

This war, by contrast, is aimed at destroying Hamas once and for all. Therefore, from the start, Israel needed to have an alternative conception of how Gaza could and should be legitimately governed by non-Hamas Palestinians — and no Palestinians are ever going to step up for that job without at least a legitimate two-state process.

 

4) Hamas’ attack was designed to halt Israel from becoming more embedded than ever in the Arab world thanks to the Abraham Accords and the budding normalization process with Saudi Arabia.

Consequently, Israel’s response had to be designed to preserve those vital new relationships. That could be possible only if Israel was fighting Hamas in Gaza with one hand and actively pursuing two states with the other.

 

5) This war had a major regional component.

Israel very quickly found itself fighting Hamas in Gaza and Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. The only way Israel could build a regional alliance — and enable Biden to help line up regional allies — was if Israel was simultaneously pursuing a peace process with non-Hamas Palestinians. That is the necessary cement for a regional alliance against Iran. Without that cement, Biden’s grand strategy of building an alliance against Iran and Russia (and China) stretching from India through the Arabian Peninsula across North Africa and up to the European Union/NATO is stymied. No one wants to sign up to protect an Israel whose government is dominated by extremists who want to permanently occupy both the West Bank and Gaza.

 

6) Political scientist Gautam Mukunda, author of the book “Picking Presidents,” made this final, good point to me: “The rise of the progressive left and Netanyahu’s tacit alliance with Trump have weakened support for Israel among Democrats. If Israel fights a war in Gaza with many civilian casualties — but offers no political hope for a better future for both Israelis and Palestinians — over time it obscures people’s memories of the horrors of Oct. 7 and their support for Israel in its wake. That makes it increasingly difficult for even the most pro-Israel American figures — like Schumer — to continue to back the war in the face of the enormous international and domestic costs.”

 

For all of these reasons, and I cannot say this loudly enough, Israel has an overriding interest in pursuing a two-state horizon. And I cannot say this often enough. I don’t know if the Palestinian Authority can get its act together to be the government that Palestinians and Israelis need it to be; I just know everyone now has a huge interest in trying to make it so.

As such, I believe the Biden strategy will most likely unfold this way: Press as hard as possible on all the parties to get a cease-fire and another hostage release. That cessation of hostilities would then freeze any Israeli military plans for a full-scale invasion of Rafah to capture or kill Hamas leaders believed to be holed up there — an invasion that would very likely cause many more civilian casualties. (I assume the U.S. will urge Israel to use more targeted means.)

Then, use the cease-fire to come in with a big, fresh American-Arab-EU peace initiative that offers Israelis a breadth and depth of normalization with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, and security guarantees, more than ever before, as the accompaniment to a two-state solution.

With that in hand, Biden could frame the choice for Israel’s next election: “Biden’s plan versus Bibi’s no-plan” — instead of Biden personally versus Netanyahu personally. Let Netanyahu choose between being remembered as the prime minister who presided over Oct. 7 or the prime minister who opened the road to Saudi Arabia.

The hour is growing late. There are a million moving parts, any one of which could fail. But this is my gut feeling for how the next phase of the Gaza conflict could play out and why Schumer’s speech was not just some personal rumination but a deep reflection of America’s best interests at this time — and, I believe, Israelis’ and Palestinians’ best interests as well.

Thomas Friedman, born in Minneapolis and raised in St. Louis Park, writes for the New York Times.

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