When the pope is sick, Italians always gossip about who comes next – even before ‘Conclave’

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By NICOLE WINFIELD, Associated Press

ROME (AP) — The pope looms so large in everyday Italian life that there are lots of expressions that make light of even a dark event like his death.

“A pope dies, they make another,” goes one, suggesting how life goes on.

“Every death of a pope …” starts another, indicating a rare occurrence.

But the one most frequently heard when a pope is actually sick is perhaps the darkest: “The pope is fine until he’s dead.”

FILE– The tapestries showing late Pope John Paul II, left, and Pope John XXIII hang from the facade of St. Peter’s Basilica as faithful and pilgrims crowd St. Peter’s Square at the Vatican, Friday, April 25, 2014. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

That one’s been making the rounds as Pope Francis nears a week in Rome’s Gemelli hospital, battling pneumonia and a complex respiratory infection.

While the Vatican has been providing twice-daily updates on his condition and Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni said they “joked around as usual” during her visit Wednesday, all kinds of reports — true and not — abound about Francis’ health.

They’ve taken on a life of their own in an age of chat groups, conspiracy theories and internet memes — not to mention the perennial Roman fixation on the pope and who might succeed him.

The ‘Conclave’ effect

It doesn’t help that the Oscar-nominated movie “Conclave” is in theaters and has made everyone an expert in the arcane rules and spectacular drama involved in a papal election. Or that Francis recently extended the term of the dean of the College of Cardinals rather than find someone new to fill a key job during the next papal transition. Or that at 88, he is one of the oldest popes ever.

FILE– Cardinals attend vespers with Pope Francis at St. Peter and Paul’s Basilica in Rome, Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Francis still has a ways to go to outlive Pope Leo XIII, who died in 1903 at 93. But he’s on track to equal or surpass Pope Gregory XII, perhaps best known for being the most recent pope to resign until Pope Benedict XVI did so in 2013. Gregory was 88 when he stepped down in 1415 to end the Western Schism, according to online resource Catholic Hierarchy.

Francis has frequently said he, too, would consider resigning if his health made him unable to continue, though more recently he said a pope’s job is for life.

Vatican correspondents are usually preparing for upcoming papal trips at this time of year, but none are confirmed so far. Instead, between medical updates, they are preparing stories looking back at his life, just in case.

“I think the dictum of ‘A pope is fine until he’s dead’ is always true,” said Giovanni Maria Vian, former editor of the Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, who knows about how Vatican information is managed. “It’s a very Roman way of speaking that represents, on the one hand, the traditional skepticism of Romans and Italians, but on the other hand, an informational opacity.”

The Vatican hasn’t allowed any member of Francis’ medical team to appear on camera or give detailed updates on his health, and no photos of him have been released since his Feb. 14 hospitalization.

A papal video fuels rumors

But to understand how entwined the pope is in Italian life, one only needs to consider another tradition religiously observed by Italians: the annual Sanremo song festival, a weeklong series of shows on RAI television in which viewers vote for their favorite rising vocalists who perform nightly in the kitschy, sometimes bawdy contest.

When it opened last week, it made even more headlines than usual because Francis — already sick with bronchitis but not yet in the hospital — appeared on the show in a pre-taped video, a publicity coup for Sanremo and a papal first.

When popular Italian blog Dagospia subsequently claimed the video had been made nearly a year earlier for another event, near-hysteria broke out among Vatican watchers. The apparent deception suggested that Francis’ latest illness was much worse than it seemed, and raised questions about the solidity of the papacy if an old video had been released without the pope’s knowledge.

As it turns out, Dagospia was wrong. The video was legit, recent and recorded for Sanremo. But it was true that Francis’ bronchitis was indeed much worse than it seemed. By week’s end, he was hospitalized with a lung infection that turned into pneumonia.

The episode though underscored the truism that the papacy is a matter of general public knowledge, interest and debate here, and that speculating about the pope’s current health and who might be next is a national pastime.

“I’m certainly very, very worried,” said Maurizio Di Folco, who was being treated Tuesday at the same hospital. “I wish him a speedy recovery and we’re praying for him deeply. A very good pope. A great pope! We hope he’ll be with us for a long time to come.”

Francis’ conservative critics weigh in

But elsewhere, Francis’ right-wing critics are circulating alarmist -– and wholly uncorroborated -– stories about his condition. Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, a Francis nemesis who was excommunicated for schism last year, revived his conspiracy about the legitimacy of Francis’ 2013 election, calling for the CIA to investigate what he claims was a “Deep State” plot to elect him.

Francis knows this dynamic well.

“Some wanted me dead,” he told Slovakian Jesuit priests in 2021, referring to what he learned while he was hospitalized that year for intestinal surgery. “I know there were even meetings among priests who thought the pope was in worse shape than what was being said. They were preparing the conclave.”

It’s considered poor taste to discuss publicly who’s up or down in the papal stakes of a future conclave, much less to start plotting one. But privately, Rome is abuzz with such conversations. Taxi drivers chat about it with passengers, doctors with patients, butchers with customers.

For now, Francis is holding on. Thursday’s bulletins said he had breakfast sitting up in an armchair and was working with aides after blood tests showed a “slight improvement” in his inflammation.

“There is a greater measure of transparency, but even that is not complete,” said Christopher Bellitto, a church history professor at Kean University in New Jersey. “Surely everyone with aging parents and grandparents said, ‘that’s pneumonia’ before the Vatican did.”

Visual journalist Silvia Stellacci contributed.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

Walmart rolled through 2024, but challenges appear ahead in 2025

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By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO, Associated Press Retail Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — Walmart delivered another year of strong sales and profits with its competitive prices an increasingly strong magnet for inflation-weary shoppers, but 2025 appears to come with new challenges in an uncertain economic landscape.

The outlook from the nation’s largest retailer for 2025 is as much as 27 cents below analyst projections for per-share earnings and for the quarter, Walmart’s expectations are as much as 7 cents below Wall Street projections.

Its sales outlook is also disappointing, potentially a reflection of rising challenges ahead as consumers pull back on spending and President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China and other countries threaten the low-price model that is the core of Walmart’s success.

FILE – Shown is a Walmart location in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Nov. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

Walmart has built in hedges against some tariff threats. Groceries account for roughly 60%, of its U.S. business, according to the company’s most recent annual report, meaning a huge chunk of sales are not reliant on goods made in China or elsewhere.

Still, shares tumbled nearly 9% before the opening bell Thursday and it pulled other big retailers down with it. The retail sector is the biggest decliner in premarket trading and Target slid 2%.

Walmart is among the first major U.S. retailers to report quarterly financial results and numbers could provide a hint as to the mood of the American shopper, particularly amid new trade barriers that according to most economists threaten to reignite inflation. Consumers over the past year have increasingly focused more on necessities rather than TVs, furniture or appliances. They’ve become much more discerning about big-ticket purchases because of higher costs for credit as well as for groceries.

Walmart has flourished in that environment, using its clout to keep prices down. It’s gained market share, notably among households with incomes over $100,000. Walmart’s online offerings and paid membership, Walmart +, have also drawn wealthier customers

“We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an eCommerce business driven by faster delivery times,” said CEO Doug McMillon. “We’re gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we’re in great shape with inventory.”

Still, Walmart could be faced with challenges with the new tariffs carrying more economic risks than during Trump’s first term. If Americans are hit by a new wave of price increases, economists say, and with 70% of the U.S. economy driven by consumers a broad pullback in spending would have ramifications beyond Walmart’s sales.

Government data last week revealed a sharp drop in January retail sales as cold weather kept more Americans indoors. But it was a much bigger drop than economists expected and the biggest in a year. Sales were revised higher for December, possibly indicating a pullback by consumers after a holiday season splurge.

Yet grocery prices, a sore point for American households, continued to rise.

Walmart, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, reported earnings of $5.25 billion, or 65 cents per share, in the quarter ended Jan. 31. That compares with $5.49 billion, or 68 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings per share for the most recent quarter was 66 cents.

Sales rose 4.1% to $180.55 billion in the quarter.

Analysts expected 65 cents per share on sales of $180.07 billion in the fourth quarter, according to FactSet.

For Walmart’s U.S. division, comparable store sales — which include online and stores open for the past 12 months — rose 4.6% in the U.S., a bit lower than the 5.3% in the previous quarter. The retailer had a 4.2% jump in the U.S. in the second quarter and 3.8% in the first quarter.

Global e-commerce sales rose 16% in the latest quarter, notably slower than the 27% increase in the third quarter.

Walmart expects first quarter earnings per share of between 57 cents and 58 cents, well below the 64 cents Wall Street was expecting, and for the year. Walmart expects earnings per share in the range of $2.50 to $2.60. That’s also off the $2.77 that analysts are predicting, according to FactSet.

It forecast a 3% to 4% increase in quarterly sales or between $166.35 billion and $167.97 billion. That could be a letdown for industry analysts, who had expected sales of $167.05 billion, according to FactSet.

Walmart expects sales to be up anywhere between 3% to 4% for the current year, or between $667.57 billion and $674.05 billion. That too falls short of the $708.72 billion that analysts predicted, according to FactSet.

Sightly more Americans apply for unemployment benefits last week, but layoffs remain relatively low

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By MATT OTT, Associated Press

Slightly more Americans applied for jobless benefits last week, but layoffs remained in the same recent healthy range.

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose by 5,000 to 219,000 for the week ending Feb. 15, the Labor Department said Thursday. Analysts projected that 215,000 new applications would be filed.

Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered a proxy for layoffs.

The four-week average, which evens out some of the week-to-week volatility, fell by 1,000 to 215,250.

Some analysts say they expect layoffs ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency to show up in the report in the coming weeks.

Despite showing some signs of weakening during the past year, the labor market remains healthy with plentiful jobs and relatively few layoffs.

Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that U.S. employers added 143,000 jobs in January, significantly fewer than December’s 256,000 job gains. However, the unemployment rate ticked down to an even 4%, signaling a still very healthy labor market.

Late in January, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark lending rate alone after issuing three cuts late in 2024. Fed officials are closely monitoring inflation and the labor market for signs of a potentially weakening economy. They expect only two rate cuts this year, down from previous projections of four.

Last week’s consumer prices report that showed that inflation accelerated last month, creating some doubt about whether the Fed will be moved to cut rates at all this year.

The consumer price index increased 3% in January from a year ago, up from a 3 1/2 year low of 2.4% in September. The new data shows that inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target for roughly the past six months after it fell steadily for about a year and a half.

Overall, while layoffs remain low by historical standards, some high-profile companies have announced job cuts already this year.

Workday, Dow, CNN, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines and Facebook parent company Meta have all trimmed their workforces already in 2025.

Late in 2024, GM, Boeing, Cargill and Stellantis announced layoffs.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits for the week of Feb. 8 rose to 1.87 million, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week.

Republicans are pursuing separate paths to get Trump’s priorities through Congress

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By KEVIN FREKING, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Majority Leader John Thune teed up a vote this week on a budget plan that sets the stage for a massive boost in defense and border security spending, and leaves a looming tax cut fight for later this year.

The move is designed to give President Donald Trump an early policy win and put pressure on House Republicans to join rather than pursue a separate, more comprehensive effort that also risks taking far longer to pass, if at all.

Trump undercut the Senate GOP’s efforts on Wednesday, calling on both chambers to pass the House budget resolution. “The House Resolution implements my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it,” Trump wrote on social media.

Yet Thune is proceeding as planned, despite Trump’s stated preference for the House effort.

“If the House can produce one big beautiful bill, we’re prepared to work with them to get that across the finish line, but we believe the president also likes optionality,” Thune said.

The resolution is not a bill and does not get signed into law by the president, but its passage unlocks a process that allows Republicans to enact their priorities later this year even if Democrats unanimously oppose it.

Here’s what to know.

What’s in the Senate plan?

The budget resolution, authored by Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Republican chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, sets the stage for about $342 billion in increased spending on border security, defense and the Coast Guard.

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Graham said the spending would take place over four years and be paid for with reduced spending elsewhere in the federal government, though the resolution itself does not specify how those cuts would occur.

The budget resolution advanced out of committee last week on a party-line vote. It directs the Senate Homeland Security Committee to increase spending by up to $175 billion, the Senate Armed Services Committee to spend up to $150 billion more and the Senate Commerce panel to increase spending by about $20 billion. This is on top of the annual spending that Congress provides through a separate legislative process.

“Build the wall, deport illegal aliens, and create additional detention space so we don’t have to release illegal immigrants into the community,” Graham said. “And God knows the military needs more money in these dangerous times.”

What happens this week?

The Senate proceeded to Graham’s budget plan on Tuesday evening, opening it up to 50 hours of debate. Once the debate time has expired — but before a vote on final passage — senators will hold what’s known in Congress as a “vote-arama.” It’s a whirlwind series of votes over several hours in which senators seek to amend the plan.

The votes often last into the early morning hours before exhausted lawmakers decide they’ve had enough and move to a final vote.

The amendments often are designed to force lawmakers from the other party to take difficult votes on hot-button issues that could prove difficult to explain in the next election cycle.

Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., said Republicans should “get ready for a late night and an early morning.”

“We are going to make sure the people back home know that Elon Musk is firing VA doctors and food safety inspectors — for no cause whatsoever — and illegally defunding the programs that Americans care about,” Murray said.

A long way to go

Once a budget plan is approved, committees would draft legislation consistent with their instructions to find savings or increase spending in programs under their jurisdiction. But the formal work needed to advance those recommendations can’t take place until both the House and Senate pass identical budget plans.

At some point, Republicans in the House and Senate will have to resolve their differences for them to use the tool that will allow the package to pass with a simple majority in the Senate and sidestep a Democratic filibuster. For now, they are competing with each other to win Trump’s favor.

Where the House stands

The House does have momentum for its efforts after a few weeks of delay. The chamber’s Budget panel has advanced its more comprehensive budget plan to the floor on a party-line vote. Speaker Mike Johnson’s office said it will come up for a vote in the full chamber next week when the House returns to Washington.

Their plan would allow committees to provide for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $300 billion in new spending. It would also instruct committees to make at least $1.5 trillion in spending reductions elsewhere in the federal government over the next decade. And it would lift the debt ceiling so that the U.S. can borrow and continue paying its bills.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, estimates that the House budget plan would allow for a nearly $4 trillion debt increase over the next decade.

Johnson can spare only one defection if Democrats are unanimous in opposing the plan next week, creating a high-wire act for his leadership team.

Some Republicans have raised concerns about the level of spending cuts that could occur with programs like Medicaid. But those lawmakers will also feel pressure to help Trump enact his priorities or face his wrath for not going along.