Trudy Rubin: I am in Ukraine to see if the war vs. Russia is still winnable

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ODESA, Ukraine — On my way to Europe on Thursday, I watched a video of an emotional exchange between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a 99-year-old World War II veteran in a wheelchair during ceremonies for the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landing in Normandy, France.

The vet whipped off his hat, embraced the Ukrainian leader in a bear hug, and exclaimed: “You’re the savior of the people. You’re my hero. I pray for you.” Zelenskyy, clearly moved, retorted: “No, you are our hero. You saved Europe.”

Perhaps only a veteran of the battle against the Nazis can fully understand the danger to Western democracies of permitting an expansionist dictator like Russia’s Vladimir Putin to get away with gobbling up territory in Europe.

Yet, the West may still let that happen.

So, I’ve come to Ukraine — via neighboring Moldova, since no civilian airports are operational in the country — and will continue on to Kyiv, the eastern front, and Kharkiv. All with a specific goal: to assess whether Kyiv can still win the war against Russian invaders. I still believe the answer is yes — followed by a big if.

Meantime …

Meantime, here in beautiful, historic Odesa, I’m waiting to hear the missile alert.

Russia fires drones and projectiles nightly into the port city to try to prevent Ukraine from exporting grain that is badly needed in Africa. Ukrainian cities are enduring rolling blackouts as Moscow targets the energy grid, so Odesa has already gone dark, although hotels and a few cafés operate on generators.

No one can be certain those drones won’t also target civilian apartments, or, as I witnessed a year ago, destroy a spectacular Orthodox church in the city center. The past several months have been a gloomy time for Ukrainians. Russia took full advantage of the six-month, Trump-imposed delay in Congress on approving a new military aid package for Kyiv. Soldiers on the front often faced Russian artillery that had a 10-1 ammunition advantage.

The lack of weapons — and some Ukrainian military errors — enabled Russian troops to break through around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which sits only about 20 miles from the Russian border. Moscow’s missiles deliberately target civilian buildings in Kharkiv — the normal mode of Kremlin warfare.

The Russian charge so unnerved the White House that it has finally permitted Ukraine to use precision U.S.-made missiles to attack Russian firing sites just across the border. Kyiv has pushed the Russians back, but could have saved lives had this permission come sooner.

“We lost many people, soldiers, and civilians,” I was told by Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko, “and that is difficult for us.”

Similarly, had NATO nations provided Ukraine with the U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems it has begged for since 2022, it could have warded off Russia’s current destruction of Ukraine’s power grid. As it stands, next winter may be hell.

Seven more Patriot systems could protect those cities — in addition to the two donated barely a year ago by Germany and the U.S. that now help shield Kyiv. NATO allies together reportedly possess at least 100 Patriot systems. Yet, so far, only Germany has offered to cough up one more.

Ukraine’s success depends heavily on whether the Biden administration finally adopts a strategy for victory, rather than the current reactive response of providing piecemeal aid “too little, too late” that at best provides an unsustainable stalemate. It further depends on whether Donald Trump wins the election and does what he’s said he will do: cut off military aid to Ukraine unless it effectively capitulates to Putin.

What Ukraine must do itself

Yet, the answer will also hinge on things Ukraine must do itself.

The beleaguered country needs to reform the structure and management of its military and develop a workable conscription system to provide desperately needed manpower.

It also needs to sustain the incredible level of military innovations generated by its army of talented techies — many of whom joined up as soon as Russia invaded. That has given Kyiv an edge over the Russians, but they are catching up with help from Iran, North Korea, and China.

On this trip, I want to learn how Ukraine intends to scale up its production of drones, sustain military morale, and keep up the amazing level of civilian volunteerism that has backed up the army in the face of uncertain U.S. politics. I want to see firsthand why most Ukrainians consider this an existential war that can’t be settled by negotiations until Putin no longer believes he can win.

Russia’s deliberate war crimes

My visit will take me to Kyiv and the eastern front lines to witness the latest war crimes Putin has wreaked on civilians in defenseless cities, towns, and villages. These Russian war crimes are carried out deliberately, not as “collateral damage” of war. This is part of Putin’s genocidal — and imperial — goal: to force Ukraine to accept the end of its existence as a sovereign state.

I hope to interview escapees from the territories Moscow has occupied since 2022 and claims to have annexed. There, the Kremlin has reportedly forbidden the use of the Ukrainian language, the existence of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, and any celebration of Ukrainian culture. It is indoctrinating children to believe there is no such country as Ukraine, and that anyone who protests is tortured, killed, or deported to prisons inside Russia.

This is the stuff of the worst days of the Soviet Union’s Iron Curtain. It is important for Americans to understand the ambitions of a dictator who wants to rebuild an extensive Russian empire.

I also hope to interview soldiers near the front lines and around Kharkiv about the impact on morale from the six-month delay of U.S. weapons and the worry about future U.S. abandonment. Is ammunition finally arriving?

Americans don’t realize what a tremendous partner Ukraine would be if and when it is admitted to NATO, having battled the massive Russian army over two years to a standstill. That was before the unreliable American political system enabled recent Russian territorial gains.

In addition, I want to look at areas where the Ukrainian military has brilliantly succeeded, such as the production of many new varieties of drones that have reshaped the modern battlefield. I hope to see some private drone production operations and learn about efforts to scale them up with help from their government and from Western allies. I’ve heard NATO officials joke that Ukraine’s army is now the most sophisticated in Europe and that U.S. military officials are learning from its experience.

I also want to talk to Ukrainian security experts on their theory of winning. One key is undoubtedly using Ukrainian drones, along with newly arrived U.S. long-range missiles, to isolate Russian-occupied Crimea and make Moscow’s troop presence there untenable.

I will be attending a conference on Black Sea security in Odesa that will look at the options for retaking Crimea, as well as continuing Kyiv’s amazing success in driving Russian ships out of the Black Sea with sea drones and missiles. They have opened a corridor through which Ukraine can continue grain exports vital to the world, even though Ukraine does not have a navy.

“The Black Sea is the key to the war,” said Goncharenko, whose district is in the Odesa region. “The Black Sea controls the future of Odesa and all of southern Ukraine. We can continue to degrade them in Crimea. But we are losing time, and every week, the possibilities are diminishing.”

If Washington had given Kyiv long-range ATACMS a year ago, instead of just recently, Crimea might now be under Ukrainian control. This is the theme that sticks in my mind as I arrive in Ukraine.

As long as Putin thinks he’s winning …

Whether Kyiv can drive Russian soldiers out of every inch of occupied territory, there is no chance to negotiate so long as Putin thinks he is winning. And Crimea remains the best place to deal Putin a symbolic and strategic blow that would force him to reconsider the continuation of the war.

At a time when Western allies have just celebrated the 80th anniversary of the invasion of Normandy, the prelude to a triumph of democracies over evil, it is time for the White House to develop a theory of victory that enables Kyiv to do likewise — and for the GOP and Trump to stop aiding Putin.

As former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst told me: “Absolutely, Ukraine can still win, but it depends especially on the United States. If we arm them properly, it would make it very hard for Putin to supply Crimea. What is necessary to open a way forward is a major defeat for Putin that is seen by the entire world.”

At this perilous and decisive time, I am glad to be in Ukraine.

Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial-board member for The Philadelphia Inquirer, P.O. Box 8263, Philadelphia, Pa. 19101. Her email address is trubin@phillynews.com.

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$1 billion budget proposed to St. Paul school board

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St. Paul Public Schools officials on Tuesday night presented a more than $1 billion budget to school board members slated for an approval vote at next week’s meeting.

Despite being around the same size as last year’s budget, it contains more than $114 million in general fund cuts and $8.2 million in cuts to both food and community services.

Reductions had to happen as the district faces a more than $100 million budget shortage linked in large part to the expiration of federal pandemic aid.

“The expiration of these funds and state aid allowances that have not kept pace with inflation for the past two decades are resulting in significant reductions and program realignments,” said a district summary of the budget.

And in order to prevent further cuts, there will be about $37 million in deficit spending. That amount will help cushion the end of pandemic aid from the American Rescue Plan, but will leave about $36.4 million in reserves  — above the 5% unassigned fund balance threshold set by the school board.

Here’s the breakdown of the main components of the billion-dollar budget:

General fund: $707.5 million — $114.6 million less than last year.
Food service: $29.3 million — $5.4 million less than last year.
Community service: $32.7 million — $2.8 million less than last year.
Building construction: $204.4 million — $89.7 million more than last year.
Debt service: $63.2 million — $9.7 million more than last year.

Why is the budget still topping a billion dollars this year despite the cuts? There’s been a boost in school construction spending not directly tied to the general fund, growing the appearance of the overall budget. Favorable bond sales last year have meant construction spending has grown by more than $89 million — the main piece of the overall budget boosting the number over $1 billion despite big cuts.

Tuesday night’s presentation by district budget chief Tom Sager focused on the big picture and the pieces of the budget SPPS plans to preserve, rather than cuts. But the expiration of at least $114 million in pandemic aid is already threatening funding for programs like arts and music, as well as special-education interpreters.

In a letter to school board members, Interim Superintendent John Thein said this year’s proposed budget was built around community input, which led the district to arrive at three guiding principles in allocating resources:

Increasing school communities’ sense of belonging and feeling of safety.
Ensuring students are respected and reflected in their curriculum and classrooms.
Making literacy a priority in instruction.

District administrators also explained to board members the broader areas in which the district plans to spend even as it makes cuts.

They plan to increase spending on early education like pre-K and early-childhood family education with the goal of preparing students for elementary school so they can meet third-grade literacy standards.

Efforts to increase enrollment will also get funding, as well as initiatives to decrease student absenteeism and boost achievement for “students showing areas of great concern.”

Under state law, the district is required to pass the next year’s budget by June 30. The next school board meeting where that’s likely to happen is next week on Tuesday, June 18.

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U.S. Olympic Team Trials for gymnastics take place in Minneapolis later this month with Suni Lee

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Minneapolis will host the U.S. Olympic Team Trials for gymnastics later this month — with St. Paul’s Suni Lee participating — as part of the run-up to 2024 games in Paris.

The trials, from June 27 through June 30, will take place at Target Center. The trials are competitions held to select U.S. participants at the Olympic Games. It is traditionally one of the most popular pre-Olympics events.

Lee earned her spot to compete in the trials by placing fourth overall earlier this month at the 2024 U.S. Gymnastics Championships in Fort Worth, Texas. Shane Wiskus, of Spring Park, also will take part in the Minneapolis competition.

Shane Wiskus competes on the parallel bars during the men’s U.S. Olympic Gymnastics Trials Saturday, June 26, 2021, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Lee famously won the gold medal in the all-around at the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo, becoming the latest American to earn that prestigious honor. That turned her into an international superstar overnight, and while she went on to compete collegiately at Auburn University for a couple of years, she eventually left the program to prepare for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris.

After dealing with a kidney ailment last year, Lee was back in full health this spring. During a Team USA media summit, she noted the challenge of returning to competition.

Wiskus also represented Team USA at the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo. He also competed collegiately at the University of Minnesota. He was twice named Big Ten Gymnast of the Year and left the school after it announced it planned to discontinue its men’s gymnastics program.

To learn more about the 2024 Olympic Team Trials for gymnastics and associated events and how to buy tickets, visit the Minnesota Sports and Events website.

Parisian theme on Nicollet Mall

Besides gymnastics, there will be a Parisian market showcasing local vendors in downtown Minneapolis and Nicollet Mall will be decorated with a replica Eiffel Tower, flower trellis and light poles.

A series of performances within the water basin of Peavey Plaza will include appearances by gymnasts from Sweden, Switzerland and Minnesota’s Circus Juventas. Street performers, mimes and musicians also will line the mall and restaurants will offer patio seating.

The street fair will kick off on at 11:30 a.m. June 27 with more than 1,000 gymnasts from around the world performing a routine to a mashup of Minnesota music. Several local stars will feature as dance captains including Leslie Fhima, a “Golden Bachelor” contestant; Jacie Scott, the Minnesota Vikings cheerleaders’ head coach; and Michelle Young, a TV personality and founder of the Michelle Young Foundation.

A Flip Zone at Target Plaza will be available for children. Gymnastics demonstrations, a parkour course and a 15-foot free fall into an airbag will be some of the interactive activities offered. DJs and special guests will perform while gymnastics clubs show off their skills.

Dane Mizutani contributed to this report. 

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Lynx knock off two-time defending champion Aces

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Three-point shooting has been a primary Lynx calling card this season.

It was again in Las Vegas late Tuesday.

Bridget Carleton tied a career-high with five of the team’s season-high-tying 15 makes from deep and the Lynx used balanced scoring to win 100-86 over the two-time defending WNBA champion Aces.

Minnesota (9-3) has won five of six.

It did so with a balanced offensive attack. All starters scored in double figures. Minnesota’s 55.8% field-goal percentage is a season high.

Alanna Smith finished with a solid all-around stat line of 18 points, four rebounds and added three assists to go along with a block and steal.

Kayla McBride had 16 points and added eight assists but was just 2 of 3 from deep. Having made 15 3-pointers in her prior two games, McBride missed tying a WNBA record of 19 in three games set by Diana Taurasi and Cynthia Cooper.

Napheesa Collier (24) of the Minnesota Lynx drives against A’ja Wilson (22) of the Las Vegas Aces in the second quarter of their game at Michelob ULTRA Arena on June 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Courtney Williams had 15 points and nine assists.

Napheesa Collier overcame early foul trouble to finish with 14 points, six assists and six rebounds on a day she was officially named to the U.S. Women’s National Team roster that’ll compete at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

Minnesota led by 20 early in the fourth quarter, but the Aces got within 11 midway through the fourth. Smith halted that momentum with Minnesota’s 14th 3-pointer of the night. A trey from Carleton pushed the lead back to 17.

Tops in the league in assists per game at 24.2 entering the game, the Lynx had a season-high 34 on 37 baskets. Minnesota scored 21 points off 14 Las Vegas turnovers.

A’ja Wilson led Las Vegas (5-5) with 28 points, but the Aces have lost three straight and four of five.

By finishing 4-1 in Commissioner’s Cup games, the WNBA’s annual in-season competition, the Lynx put themselves in a good spot to represent the Western Conference in the June 25 championship game at New York that has $500,000 on the line.

In simplest terms, if Las Vegas beats Phoenix Thursday, the Lynx are in.

Minnesota shot 62.9% from the field in the opening two quarters, including nine 3-pointers, capped by one from Carleton in the final second of the first half, for a 59-48 lead at the break.

It is the most points scored by the Lynx in a half this season and the most first-half points allowed by Las Vegas since 2020.

Las Vegas scored just 12 points in the third quarter, throwing up eight 3-point misses, as the Lynx methodically pulled away to lead by 18 entering the fourth quarter.

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