Drake Maye didn’t slowly materialize as a prospect for the 2024 NFL draft last fall at North Carolina. He burst upon teams’ radar as a redshirt freshman with a blazing start that featured 16 touchdown passes and only one interception through the first four games.

“I had three scouts call me last year when they were leaving North Carolina, and they were all like, ‘Holy (crap)! This kid at UNC is the real deal,’” one senior personnel evaluator said. “I know he’s got a ton of physical talent. When we get down to nitpicking time, which is inevitable, I don’t know what it’s going to be for Drake.”

The uphill battle for Maye — who has led the 10th-ranked Tar Heels to a 6-0 record this season with an average margin of 16.3 points — is closing the gap between himself and USC quarterback Caleb Williams as the potential No. 1 draft pick in April.

The consensus among the 11 evaluators the Tribune spoke to for this story and an accompanying piece on Williams is that Williams will be the first pick, which the Chicago Bears would own if the order were based on current standings.

“I think they go 1-2,” an NFC general manager said of Williams and Maye. “That’s unless (Ohio State wide receiver) Marvin Harrison Jr. sticks his head in there.”

On a sun-splashed Saturday afternoon two weeks ago at Kenan Memorial Stadium, Maye piled up video-game numbers in a 40-7 thrashing of Syracuse: 33-of-47 passing for 442 yards and three touchdowns — completing passes to 11 targets — plus 14 rushes for another 55 yards and a fourth score. Bears assistant director of college scouting Breck Ackley was present.

It was a good test against an Orange defense that employs multiple coverages and aggressive pressures, one national scout noted, and a needed big game after Maye had only five touchdown passes and four interceptions through the first four games.

In a six-minute span in the second quarter, Maye made plays that will pop when NFL teams dive into the tape.

Facing a six-man pressure, he dropped a perfect ball on a slot fade to tight end Bryson Nesbit for a 23-yard touchdown. He threw a bullet along the left sideline to wide receiver J.J. Jones for a 15-yard gain. Off a play fake, he drove a ball to Nate McCollum for a 48-yard gain, showing well-above-average arm strength. Displaying his athletic ability at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, Maye scrambled to his left for 12 yards.

Maye followed that up with a four-touchdown effort last week in a 41-31 win over Miami, taking a ton of hits while propelling the Tar Heels to their best start since 1997. One evaluator said that’s key when considering a quarterback who doesn’t come from a blue-blood program: Does he raise the team to a level it hasn’t reached in a long time?

Maye checks that box, certainly more than former Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky did at North Carolina. Trubisky couldn’t beat out Marquise Williams, who never made an NFL roster, so he was the starter for only the 2016 season. Maye, 21, immediately followed Sam Howell, who set 27 school records and now starts for the Washington Commanders.

“Mechanically sound, accurate, very good ball placement, good anticipation, just enough athletic ability to be a run threat,” said one national scout who has been to Chapel Hill this fall. “And he’s not surrounded by a lot. Makes a lot with a little. If he was at Alabama (where Maye originally committed), they would be in the national championship hunt.”
“Size, athleticism, like the arm, deep and intermediate accuracy, he’s really good in the pocket,” an AFC general manager said. “Very good athlete. Elite wiring. Very good at the second and third levels. He will guide the ball a little bit and you can clean up his feet. Really good player.”
“Has all the tools,” a national scout said. “Can he develop? He will need to right away with where he will be drafted.”
“He’s good, but I still think he’s got a ways to go,” said another national scout who was in Chapel Hill recently. “I am probably in the minority in that, but I gave him a really good grade. He’s got a really high ceiling. Some of his decision making at times is not what you want. He can be a future face of the franchise. He does things the right way.

“Maybe it was because I had heard so much about him that I was expecting more. He’s a good athlete. He tricks the defense at times with his athletic ability and speed to get first downs. He rolls pretty good. Big athlete. Good arm.”

Former Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings GM Rick Spielman, who was the Bears director of pro personnel from 1997-99, has watched extensive tape of Maye and Williams in work he’s doing for The 33rd Team website, his CBS Sports podcast “With the First Pick” and SiriusXM.

“He had no help until (wide receiver) Tez Walker started playing,” said Spielman, noting the NCAA approved Walker’s eligibility earlier this month. “He’s got a poor offensive line. He doesn’t have the same weapons he had when he had Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts) and Antoine Green (Detroit Lions) last year.

“When he has time, he’s great. He’s getting his ass beat almost every other snap as they are struggling up front, and Miami got after him. His toughness to get up after some of the hits he takes, boy. He has a strong arm. He is athletic and can get outside of the pocket and do things. He is an accurate thrower on the move and he has more than enough deep strength and accuracy.

“He’ll force it, just like most of these guys will do, trying to do too much at times, but are you ready for this one? He is a poor man’s Trevor Lawrence. That’s what I saw in him.”

NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah made a parallel to Carson Palmer when describing Maye. Others have compared him to Justin Herbert, noting they have similarly long deliveries. That’s not necessarily a hindrance and quarterbacks can overcome it with anticipation and arm strength.

One national scout said Maye’s accuracy seems a tad off at times. That’s getting into detailed observations, as he’s completing 68.9% of his passes this season. He completed 66.2% last season, when he set a Tar Heels record with 4,321 passing yards — while also leading the team in rushing with 698 yards — and tied the school mark with 38 touchdown passes.

But the scout was referring to ball-placement accuracy — delivering passes where the target can gain more yardage. Facing a Syracuse blitz in the third quarter, Maye saw the pressure and identified his target, wide receiver Kobe Paysour, on an option route from the right side of the formation. The ball was behind Paysour, who reached back to tip it to himself with his left hand before racing 77 yards to the end zone.

In the NFL, that’s probably not a touchdown. It might be an interception.

That’s an example of the fine lens used in evaluating all players, especially quarterbacks.

“He’s kind of like the guy who does a lot of things well,” an assistant GM from an AFC team said. “I don’t know if he does anything elite. He’s really tough. Really is like a poor man’s Justin Herbert. Herbert’s arm is a little more lively. He’s competitive.”

One thing college programs with elite quarterbacks have done is find NFL-experienced and quarterback-savvy mentors to sign on as “analysts,” a vague role that means they can’t do on-field coaching but otherwise serve as coaches in meetings. Adding one can help persuade a quarterback to stay put and not seek the vast NIL (name, image, likeness) money other programs might dangle.

At USC, former Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury, who guided Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, is an analyst for Williams. Texas — whose quarterback, Quinn Ewers, is another top 2024 draft prospect — has former Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst on staff as an analyst. Chryst was a tight ends coach for the San Diego Chargers and was Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator when Russell Wilson played there.

In Chapel Hill, coach Mack Brown has Clyde Christensen in the role. Christensen was the Colts offensive coordinator for Peyton Manning and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterbacks coach for Tom Brady. The Tar Heels also count as analysts former Cleveland Browns coach Freddie Kitchens and former Bears outside linebackers coach Ted Monachino.

Christensen can zero in on Maye’s footwork and progressions and provide the detailed coaching he will receive in the NFL, a luxury few programs have.

“Coach Christensen has done an unbelievable job,” Maye said. “One of the biggest things, from two years ago and last year with (former offensive coordinator Phil) Longo, are individual drills. It’s one of our most intense periods of practice every day. I feel like I’m winded more in our individual, going through drills, than I am at any other point in practice.

“He works us. We’ll go back and watch individual. We’re watching Tom Brady and Peyton Manning do the same drills. It’s a blessing to have him in the room just bouncing off ideas. Got a lot of good things going.”

Maye is from Huntersville, N.C., near Charlotte. He flipped his commitment from Alabama to North Carolina after Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide wooed Bryce Young away from USC.

He’s continuing a family tradition in Chapel Hill. His father, Mark, was a highly recruited quarterback who picked UNC in 1983 over Alabama and Florida State, among other schools. His mother, Aimee, worked in the football recruiting office during Brown’s first stint as Tar Heels coach (1988-97), when Mark was a graduate assistant.

Maye has three older brothers. Luke was a standout for the UNC basketball team, sending the Tar Heels to the Final Four in 2017 with a game-winning shot against Kentucky. He plays professionally in Turkey. Cole was a pitcher on Florida’s 2017 College World Series championship team. Beau was a walk-on for the Tar Heels basketball team.

It’s a tight-knit family with bigger brothers — Drake is both the youngest and shortest — that makes scouts search for glowing adjectives to describe Maye’s character.

“There’s just tons of competitive juices in that family,” said David Morris, a quarterbacks coach based in Mobile, Ala., who has trained Maye. “Anytime you’re a younger brother, you’re used to a couple things. You’re used to playing up so you become less intimidated. Then there is a toughness thing — you’re getting pushed around and beat up by the brothers — and all that stuff helps mold a competitive kid that is eager to get in an environment where he feels all that stuff.”

“Incredible makeup,” the AFC general manager said.

Maye is fueled less by the prospect of the draft right now than by what might lie ahead for the Tar Heels: a shot at the ACC championship game — and possibly the College Football Playoff. After a 9-1 start last year, UNC lost its final four games.

“Obviously the way we ended last year, lost a lot of close games,” Maye said at the ACC Kickoff in July. “Anytime you end the season like that, I use it as motivation. That’s all we talk about.”

After hosting Virginia on Saturday, the Tar Heels play No. 16 Duke and defending ACC champion Clemson in consecutive weeks in November. The games against the better opponents are the ones NFL teams will keenly watch. If Maye can continue to raise the profile of the program, he also would boost his own stock.

“Does all the right things,” a scouting director said. “All the stuff you want. He’s got a bright future.”

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The degree to which the Iowa Hawkeyes live rent free inside P.J. Fleck’s head is difficult to gauge, but the Gophers’ rival to the south has set up some amount of real estate in Fleck’s bald noggin.

With an 0-6 record against the Hawkeyes, the Gophers football coach can recall a catalog of bad memories, where his Minnesota teams have come up short on an annual basis since 2017. He doesn’t have to go back far to remember the one that sticks with him most.

“Last year, (we) turned the ball over twice in three minutes,” Fleck told the Pioneer Press. “Or three minutes, whatever it was.”

Tied 10-10 at a freezing Huntington Bank Stadium last November, Mo Ibrahim fumbled at the Iowa 13-yard line with five minutes left. After an Iowa punt, Athan Kaliakmanis threw an interception with two minutes remaining. After that second giveaway, the Hawkeyes put together a 42-yard drive and kicked a 21-yard field goal to win 13-10.

“It usually comes down to (taking care of) the ball,” Fleck said. “We’ve had some really close ones, and just have to be able to finish. We’ve also won a lot of games like that. We just haven’t won games against Iowa like that. They deserve credit for that. They were able to finish a lot of the games.”

Fleck isn’t discouraged, though, with another shot at Floyd of Rosedale coming Saturday. The Gophers (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) are 3 1/2-point underdogs to the No. 24 Hawkeyes (6-1, 3-1) at 2:30 p.m. at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City.

“This is a heck of an opportunity for our kids; I know that,” Fleck said.

The Vegas oddsmakers think the 117th edition of the series will be a lot like last year’s very low-scoring affair.

The 2022 game set a record for lowest over/under point total (31 1/2 points) since that prop bet started to be tracked in the mid-1990s. On Thursday, the 2023 number fell from 32 1/2 points to 31, setting a new low.

The Hawkeyes’ winning ways this seasons look a lot like in previous years: a strong defense and standout special teams units carrying an offense that doesn’t score many, if any, points.

Fleck pointed to the Hawkeyes’ 15-6 win at Wisconsin last Saturday “as exactly who Iowa is,” he said. “They’re very efficient. They don’t turn the ball over. Their special teams are a huge factor in how they win — a huge factor. Their special teams doesn’t get enough credit. And their defense is one of the best defenses in the country consistently. They have a formula, and they do it really well.”

There has been a premium placed on scoring at all on Saturday, but scoring first has been vital in this rivalry. In the previous six games, Iowa has scored first in each one. In the overall eight-game losing skid, six have been one-score games.

Across the last six games, the Gophers have only led in one, and briefly. Matthew Trickett kicked a 31-yard field goal to end the first half in 2021, and it stood for all of three minutes and nine seconds before a Hawkeyes touchdown gave them the lead for good early in the third quarter.

Besides the heartbreak of the 2022 loss, Iowa’s wins in 2019 and 2021 kept the Gophers from winning the Big Ten West and going on to the Big Ten Championship Game. Those defeats aren’t far from Fleck’s recall, either.

With the Gophers coming off a bye week, the coaching staff got a head start on preparing for the Hawkeyes. “Huge,” co-offensive coordinator Greg Harbaugh said of the head start. The U is 6-1 against Iowa with an extra week to prepare, but their lone loss in that category came during this current losing skid, in 2018.

Offensive tackle Quinn Carroll knows about the layers in this rivalry, with his father, Jay, playing tight end for the U in the early 1980s. Jay was a member of a Gophers team that won in Iowa City in 1981. In the 42 years since then, Minnesota has won twice in Kinnick Stadium (1989 and 1999).

Quinn, who grew up in Edina, recalls the last time the U beat Iowa in 2014, with fellow lineman Joe Bjorklund raising the nearly 100-pound pig trophy over his head as the team’s celebration went into the home locker room.

“I’m hoping to do the same thing,” Carroll said.

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Josh Lucas was sitting in his Halas Hall office, engaged in the tedious process of going through film, when he was gobsmacked.

Play, rewind, play, rewind, play. With each click of the remote, his amazement grew.

Caleb Williams, in his second start for Oklahoma on Oct. 23, 2021, handed the ball off to running back Kennedy Brooks on fourth-and-1 with the Sooners, a 38 1/2-point favorite, clinging to a 28-23 lead at lowly Kansas. Less than six minutes remained and the ball was at midfield.

Brooks was stacked up by the Jayhawks, about to be dropped for a loss, when Williams ran up, ripped the ball from his teammate’s clutches, spun forward for a first down and propelled the Sooners to victory.

“I got up out of my seat,” said Lucas, then the Chicago Bears director of player personnel, “and I walked into (assistant director of player personnel) Champ Kelly’s office and I was like, ‘In three years, this guy will be the first pick in the draft.’

“To have the wherewithal, instincts and awareness to do what he did, combined with the throws he was making …”

Inserted into the Red River Rivalry against Texas two weeks earlier for a fourth-and-1 play, Williams shook a couple of Longhorns at the line of scrimmage and raced 66 yards for a touchdown, sparking Oklahoma’s comeback from a 28-7 deficit to a 55-48 win. The true freshman from Washington, D.C., quickly took over from Spencer Rattler and carried the Sooners to an 11-2 record.

The internet is packed with videos of dazzling throws from all platforms, off-schedule plays careening toward disaster that turn into highlights and big-armed shots downfield. Williams transferred to USC after his freshman season, following Sooners coach Lincoln Riley to Los Angeles, and threw 42 touchdown passes with only five interceptions and ran for another 10 scores en route to winning the Heisman Trophy.

All of that made the first half last Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium as jarring as an uppercut to the jaw. Had the Irish, who romped to a 48-20 victory while handing the Trojans (6-1) their first loss, discovered the kryptonite for Williams, who has been nicknamed Superman?

Williams was sacked on his first dropback. Two snaps later, with defensive end Javonte Jean-Baptiste bearing down, he backpedaled before lofting a pass to tight end Luke McRee that safety Xavier Watts intercepted.
On the second series, facing third-and-8, Williams threw back across the field to wide receiver Tahj Washington, netting only 5 yards. It appeared there was ample room to run for the first down.
Deep in his own territory in the second quarter, Williams tried connecting with wide receiver Dorian Singer, launching a ball into traffic for Watts’ second interception. The pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage, but Singer was double-covered.
Rolling left on the next possession, Williams was falling back when he forced another throw. Cornerback Benjamin Morrison picked it off.

Notre Dame turned all three interceptions into touchdowns, and the rout was on after a calamitous 30 minutes for Williams, who entered the prime-time showdown with 85 career touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions.

“I made mistakes that I usually don’t make,” Williams said afterward. “I’ve been in college for three years now and I don’t think I’ve ever had a season or a game or anything like that. So nights like that happen.

“You’ve got to get through it, you’ve got to keep fighting, you’ve got to be a leader. It starts at the head of the snake and I’ll be better.”

Bears general manager Ryan Poles and co-director of player personnel Jeff King watched it unfold from the press box, where three other GMs were present: Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (Minnesota Vikings), Brandon Beane (Buffalo Bills) and Joe Schoen (New York Giants).

A rugged Notre Dame defense — certainly more physical than any the Trojans faced against San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona — flustered Williams into 23-of-37 passing for 199 yards with one touchdown, the three interceptions and six sacks.

Williams was plagued by poor decision-making. He didn’t manage the pocket well when there was time. He was inclined to play off schedule, and more times than not it played in the defense’s favor — something Bears fans have seen too often with Justin Fields.

“There were team meetings where he was throwing some of his passes,” one scout said of Williams throwing into traffic.

Nonetheless, as the Bears prepare for the 2024 NFL draft — they would be selecting first and second based on the current standings — Williams looms as a tantalizing possibility for Poles and an organization that’s struggling to get it right 2 1/2 seasons into Fields’ tenure.

In a scouting process that encompasses everything — NFL teams are likely to chart every throw a quarterback makes in college and will plunge deep into personal background — what does Williams’ clunker in South Bend mean in the big picture? The Trojans’ last five regular-season games include meetings with No. 14 Utah, No. 5 Washington and No. 9 Oregon.

There hasn’t been a quarterback more consistently compared to Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP and two-time Super Bowl MVP the Bears passed on in the 2017 draft when they chose Mitch Trubisky. Was this a potential red flag?

“They all have those kind of games,” an AFC assistant GM said. “Josh Allen had one. Mahomes did. It didn’t move me a particular way. Didn’t change anything. Caleb is the No. 1 pick.”
“I hope that game turns 31 other teams off,” one national scout mused.
“No,” an NFC general manager said. “I have seen too much from him over the last two years.”
“They’re not really a good team,” another national scout said. “It’s just him. The game before (a 43-41 triple-overtime victory over Arizona), they almost lost. He put the team on his back. They struggled and he said, ‘I got this.’ To have that competitive fire and to be talented, that’s where the special matches up. I think he’s going to be great.”
“You have to look at it,” one high-level scout said. “It’s the first time I’ve seen batted balls and bad decisions, and they are going to be playing some other good teams coming up.”

Superlatives for Williams are through the roof. He has been called the kind of prospect that comes around once a decade. Some have said he’s the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. Others have dared to go all the way back to John Elway in 1983.

Sean Payton, in an appearance on Fox Sports’ “The Herd” last November, labeled Williams a “generational” talent. Now the coach of the 1-5 Denver Broncos, Payton’s team could be in the running for the No. 1 pick.

“At some point we’re going to move to a lottery system in the NFL because this is a player that possibly does that,” Payton said last fall. “Here you are in Weeks 14, 12, and clubs begin to lose to try and put themselves in that position. That’s not been a problem to date with our league as we know it.”

A college scouting director said debating where Williams stacks up in the last 10, 20 or 40(!) years is a talking point for media, not germane to the pre-draft process.

“But he is everything everyone says he is,” the scouting director said. “Once a decade or generational? Who the hell knows. They said the same stuff about five other dudes in the last 10 years.

“He is more mechanically clean than Mahomes was coming out. Mahomes would put the ball in harm’s way a lot. He was throwing the ball 60 times a game sometimes because he was pressed to put points on the board. He didn’t have a conscience when he was in college: ‘So what if I throw three picks? I’ve got to throw eight TDs to win.’”

The nitpicking — and it’s real even for such an uber-talented player — will focus on Williams’ ability to produce from the pocket. Can he be coached to play there more? USC lists him at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds. He’s probably just a shade over 6 feet, but scouts love his lower-body build and strength.

“Really, really talented,” an AFC general manager said. “You can’t deny it. He can play in the pocket. He likes to get out, he likes to be off schedule. He’s dangerous with his legs. He probably takes too many sacks, but the line isn’t great. It’s a matter of what you’re doing. He’s not your typical pocket quarterback, but he can play in the pocket and he’s got a good arm. He likes the weight room.”
One national scout, when he first watched Williams in person last season, punctuated the first three words of his reaction: “This. Is. Mahomes.”
“He has that thing that the really good ones have that at any moment they can make a big play if you don’t play the defense perfectly,” an assistant GM said. “That’s one of those tough-to-measure qualities, but he’s got it and you see it time after time after time. There are some instances, just like last week, where it doesn’t work. But he just has that it, man. I don’t know what it is and I can’t put a value on it, but I know he’s got it.”
“He’s more advanced,” a national scout said. “It’s almost like he’s where Mahomes was after two years in the league.”

Former Miami Dolphins and Vikings GM Rick Spielman, who was the Bears director of pro personnel from 1997-99, found a positive takeaway in the loss to the Irish.

“Caleb is a unique talent,” Spielman said. “Arm talent, off-schedule throws, playmaking ability. I guess the negative is he can’t hold the ball as long as he can now, and that’s the thing that most of these college quarterbacks need to learn. The ball has got to be out. He has the luxury of being able to do that because he’s such a good athlete. But I think he can get through his progressions better than Justin Fields did when he came out.

“All the physical tools are there. For as bad as he played at Notre Dame, the one thing that told me about the kid’s competitiveness is that in the second half, he played like he played all year — made really good throws, made really good decisions — which showed me the maturity level after having such a crappy first half and not letting it affect him. That was a huge positive in my mind.”

So does Spielman see Mahomes when he watches Williams?

“I may be out of whack,” Spielman said, “but Andrew Luck. Andrew wasn’t as athletic, but he could move around, he was a very good thrower, he could do it from the pocket and outside. He did a lot of similar stuff as a thrower. That’s the first guy that popped into my head.”

Williams’ arrival last year restored luster to the USC program that had been mostly missing after coach Pete Carroll’s run (2001-09), which included seven consecutive seasons of 11 or more wins. Williams set most of the school’s major single-season passing records while leading the Trojans to an 11-3 record, and remember, it was his first year as a full-time starter after beginning behind Rattler at Oklahoma.

He made Trojans games at the LA Coliseum a place for A-list stars again. He walked the Hugo Boss runway at a fashion show in Miami. The Los Angeles Dodgers had a Caleb Williams bobblehead giveaway. He threw out a first pitch at a Washington Nationals game. He possesses the media savvy of a 10-year NFL veteran.

“It’s something and someone to get excited about,” said Mark Sanchez, the former Bears quarterback who compared the vibe around the USC program to his freshman season in 2005, when Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush led the Trojans to the national championship game. “The style of play adds to it. It kind of punctuates this whole Caleb Williams phenomenon. He’s not just your average kind of player that is going to concede a snap here or there to the defense. This dude is going to try to win every snap.

“It is a fun style of play, and as soon as the initial read or couple reads are done, that thing totally transforms and he becomes an artist out there. That’s added to this persona and figure that he’s created.”

Said former Bears quarterback Vince Evans, who was MVP of the 1977 Rose Bowl for USC: “He’s the face of the university, he’s the face of Los Angeles. He’s an exceptional talent. He’s a great leader, great motivator. Seems to be a solid role model. I don’t get very moved by many players, but he’s magical in some plays.”

In New York to accept the Heisman in December, Williams was humble in front of the three other finalists — C.J. Stroud, Max Duggan and Stetson Bennett — whose teams remained in national title contention.

“I may be standing up here today, but y’all get to go to the College Football Playoff,” Williams said. “Guess you can’t win them all.”

That competitive streak no doubt resonated with NFL teams.

Williams is just the second Heisman winner to be able to profit from NIL (name, image, likeness) money while in school, and On3.com estimates his valuation at $2.7 million. He has deals with Wendy’s, Beats by Dre, United Airlines and others.

An NFC GM scoffed at that figure — suggesting Williams is raking in significantly more.

The point is Williams could return to USC for his senior season in 2024 — something his father, Carl, didn’t rule out in a GQ profile published last month — and still be well-compensated. Carl lamented the way the draft is structured with the best player going to the worst team.

“He’s got two shots at the apple,” Carl said. “So if there’s not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school.”

NFL types don’t seem concerned Williams would bypass the draft. The real money elite quarterbacks are chasing is the windfall that comes with a second contract. Jalen Hurts’ second contract with the Philadelphia Eagles guaranteed him $180 million, Justin Herbert got $218 million guaranteed from the Los Angeles Chargers and Joe Burrow received $219 million from the Cincinnati Bengals. All three deals were signed since April.

If Williams enters the NFL in 2024, he would be eligible for a second contract in 2027. Guarantees for quarterbacks could approach $300 million by then. Returning to school could expose Williams to injury. The team with the No. 1 pick in 2025 is unlikely to be in a much better position than the one next April.

“Whoever has the No. 1 pick, he’s it by far,” another NFC GM said. “There’s no question he would have been the first pick this year.”

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