Bruce Helmer and Peg Webb

Over the past 50 years, the pendulum of regulation has swung back and forth as policymakers have sought to balance stability and innovation, protection and efficiency.

During his campaign and entering the early weeks and months of his presidency, Donald Trump has publicly expressed an interest in rolling back regulations in several areas, particularly in energy production, manufacturing, and parts of the financial sector.

His rationale is that cutting taxes and reducing bureaucratic hurdles can foster economic growth, create jobs and make U.S. industries more competitive. However, policies behind these stated intentions have yet to be fully formulated and continue to be a subject of both political and economic debate.

In light of these developments, it’s worth examining how past cycles of regulation and deregulation have shaped the markets historically and what lessons can be drawn for the current environment.

Deregulation of industries can have significant implications for both public and private investment returns, but these effects often vary based on market conditions, the specifics of the regulatory changes and the nature of the industry involved. Here, we’ll look at how deregulation has historically shaped outcomes in key sectors and how the public and private markets have responded differently.

Public markets often move quickly

Publicly traded companies in deregulated sectors often experience dramatic shifts in their valuation and performance. When regulatory barriers are removed, competition generally increases, and firms must quickly adapt to the new environment. In some cases, deregulation creates substantial opportunities for growth and innovation, which can lead to strong returns for equity investors. Here are just three examples:

• Airlines (1978 Airline Deregulation Act): The deregulation of the U.S. airline industry led to lower fares, increased route availability, and a surge in air travel demand. While the increased competition squeezed margins, many airlines that adapted quickly achieved higher volumes and improved efficiencies, benefiting their shareholders in the long run.

• Telecommunications (1996 Telecommunications Act): Deregulation opened up competition in local and long-distance phone services. This spurred new technologies and services, leading to strong stock market performance for innovative telecom companies and new entrants. However, it also triggered price wars and consolidation, causing volatility and mixed results for investors who didn’t correctly anticipate industry shakeouts.

• Energy (1980s–1990s): Deregulation in electricity and natural gas markets created investment opportunities in utilities that adapted to competitive markets, as well as in independent power producers. While the potential for returns increased, so did the risks, especially for firms that couldn’t efficiently scale their operations or handle fluctuating commodity prices.

Deregulation can expand opportunities

In private markets, deregulation often opens the door to venture capital and private equity investment in sectors previously dominated by regulated monopolies or highly restricted firms. These investments can generate substantial returns by capitalizing on newly created inefficiencies or unmet demand.

With fewer barriers to entry, deregulated markets attract startups and disruptors who may be more agile and innovative than incumbents. Private investors funding these disruptors may see outsized returns if the companies succeed in capturing market share and scale efficiencies.

In addition, as public companies adjust to deregulation, private equity firms often find opportunities to acquire and modernize underperforming assets — such as aging infrastructure in utilities or telecommunications. By improving operational efficiency and introducing better management practices, these sponsoring firms can unlock significant value for their investors.

Deregulation often leads to consolidation as firms seek economies of scale in a more competitive environment. Private equity funds may facilitate more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals, earning substantial returns from buyouts and subsequent strategic sales or public offerings.

Investors need to carefully consider the special risks and suitability of private markets investments for their portfolios. Private markets require a deeper commitment to investment research and due diligence, and liquidity concerns play an equally important role when locking up capital for longer time periods.

Comparing public and private markets

Public market investors generally face more immediate exposure to the volatility caused by deregulation, as stock prices react quickly to changing competitive dynamics. Private market investors, on the other hand, may have a longer time horizon to implement operational improvements or wait out market instability. These differentiated timeframes offer distinct risk-reward dynamics.

In certain deregulated industries, public markets provide opportunities for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to the entire sector. Private markets, however, may offer more concentrated, high-reward opportunities for qualified investors who can identify and support early-stage disruptors or acquire distressed assets.

Furthermore, publicly traded companies in deregulated industries offer liquidity, allowing investors to enter or exit positions relatively easily. Private investments tend to be less liquid but may provide higher returns if the investor can patiently navigate the post-deregulation landscape.

Proceed cautiously

Deregulating industries often transforms the investment landscape, presenting both challenges and opportunities. While public markets see immediate effects in stock valuations and heightened competition, private markets find opportunities in fostering innovation and driving operational efficiencies. Investors in both realms must carefully assess industry-specific dynamics and long-term competitive trends to position themselves effectively.

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The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Bruce Helmer and Peg Webb are financial advisers at Wealth Enhancement Group and co-hosts of “Your Money” on WCCO 830 AM on Sunday mornings. Email Bruce and Peg at yourmoney@wealthenhancement.com. Securities offered through LPL Financial, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services, LLC, a registered investment advisor. Wealth Enhancement Group and Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services are separate entities from LPL Financial.

 

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