Edward Lotterman

With 107 days left before the presidential election and 182 to Inauguration Day, our nation is in unprecedented political turmoil.

What does that mean for the economy generally? What about household concerns such as interest rates or retirement account returns? No one really knows — but some conditions will hold, regardless of who wins in November.

Ultimately, if all other institutions fail us economically, it’s the global bond trade that can, and will, rescue us from damaging political interference in the market. They’re called “securities” for a reason, and when there is money to be made — but especially lost — traders will act spontaneously to make things right.

But first, let’s consider our current situation, and what brings us to this discussion.

Our situation is shot through with “uncertainty” — a circumstance in which we do not know what will happen. Uncertainty differs from “risk,” however. Risk also involves not knowing what will happen, but includes some information, such as on weather, climate, health, stock market patterns, gambling odds, or other variables, that allow estimates of statistical probabilities of different outcomes.

Uncertainty is when there is no such basis of any kind for predictions. That is precisely what we face now. We know there will be an election on Nov. 5. There should be an inauguration next Jan. 20. Before those dates, but primarily after, no one knows how critical events will play out.

But economically, on some issues, we can form expectations. One is that the Federal Reserve will not make major changes in monetary policy. Fear and uncertainty may roil financial markets. Bond and stock prices may gyrate, and with them interest rates. But only in the most dire circumstances, such as the real estate debt blowout of the late 2000s, will the Fed make significant, drastic changes.

This stability will continue post-inauguration regardless of who takes the oath. Pundits may punt about what Donald Trump or Joe Biden will do, particularly Trump, but our nation’s central bank was designed to be insulated from control by elected officials and from politics generally.

Both Biden and Trump are well-known commodities. But 99% of the uncertainty still centers on Trump. A Democratic win, whether by Biden or someone else, would mean cautious stay-the-course policies in virtually all policy areas, but especially the economy,

If Trump wins, multiple questions arise, based on his past behavior and current comments. Will he try to dictate Fed money and interest rate policies? Will he fire Chair Jerome Powell, whom he appointed, or other members of the Board of Governors to bring in his own lackeys? And, failing that, how, for example, would our central bank react if Trump succeeds in getting Congress to pass laws raising import tariffs to unprecedented levels, making drastic changes in other taxes or changing defense policies relative to NATO or the EU or Taiwan that would affect business and trade globally?

No one can predict what the Fed would do in a crisis. Both its reactions to a looming financial meltdown in 2008 and its unprecedented 25% increase of the money supply over the year following COVID’s 2020 outbreak were drastic, unprecedented and still controversial. Yet in both cases Fed acted on its own, not in response to orders or pressure from the White House or Congress.

Some “experts” suggest Trump will instruct the Fed to lower interest rates or will quickly replace Powell. Well, probably not. We can thank three people from history — and the amorphous bond market — for that.

Start with Carter Glass. This newspaper editor and publisher from Lynchburg, Va., served in the House of Representatives, as U.S. Treasury Secretary and as a senator. In 1913, he helped write the Federal Reserve Act and shepherded it through Congress. In the 1930s he oversaw banking reforms including Federal Deposit Insurance, the separation of commercial and investment banking and an overhaul of the Fed.

His key contribution was the structuring of the Fed into 12 independent regional banks — legally private corporations. They had a statutory mandate but were free from political control. This compromise solved divisions between conservatives who did not want anything headquartered in Washington, and those who feared anything based on Wall Street. Neither side wanted presidents to control the new institution.

In congressional reform of banking and finance during the 1930s, Glass was joined by Utah business owner Marriner Eccles. He had taken over the businesses of his father, an immigrant from Scotland, who was Utah’s first multi-millionaire. These included banks and Eccles understood the sector deeply.

The Fed had let the economy implode after 1929 because it was too decentralized. So the 12-bank structure was kept but a seven-member board of governors was created. These governors together with five of the 12 district bank presidents in rotation would make monetary policy. Great care went into designing a system of 14-year governors’ terms on a schedule so that no president could ever appoint a majority on the board. And the district presidents on the policy-making Federal Open Policy Committee answered to no politician.

Eccles was the first chair of the new board, acting effectively, but staying on too long. After the brief term of a faceless replacement, William McChesney Martin took over as chair. With an English degree from Yale, Martin was the greatest Fed chair ever and an unsung American hero. Serving from April 1951 to the end of January 1970, Martin oversaw two decades of growth and prosperity with low inflation.

Martin’s most important action was in his last year. Shortly after Richard Nixon’s inauguration in January 1969, Martin was summoned to the White House. He was told to step down so that Arthur Burns, a distinguished academic, could take over. Martin told Nixon to go pound sand. His term had another year to run, precisely because the law was written to prevent a new president from grabbing control of the money supply and interest rates. Nixon had no statutory power to fire him.

Powell should emulate Martin’s principled stand if Trump tries to fire him. The key problem, however, is that Nixon backed down and did not make it a public issue. There is no question that if Trump openly called on Powell or any other governor to leave the board, there would be a political and financial crisis. But governors should stand firm.

But even if Powell or other governors did acquiesce, there is yet one more check: The five district presidents on the policy-making FOMC are not subject to the executive branch in any way. They did block a key action by the Board of Governors in August 2008 as the financial debacle started. And they would block any kowtowing to any orders from the White House.

But the final check on overreaching power is the amorphous global bond market.

In his 1812 invasion of Russia, Napoleon Bonaparte was defeated by “General Winter.”  Several presidents with big plans, including Bill Clinton, have been defeated by “General Bond Market.” Simply put, financial markets are naturally roiled by political adventuring — stock prices fall, interest rates rise and politicians pull back. Indeed, Clinton’s key policy adviser James Carville famously said, “If there was reincarnation … I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

One can hate the global market centers of Wall Street and the City of London and Frankfurt and Basel, but international financial markets are the ultimate check on the powers of mercurial leaders. None of the conspiracy delusions of shadowy control are true or needed. It is actually the spontaneous reactions of thousands of banks and investors to reckless moves by any government that are the ultimate check on power. One can regret that generally, but depend on it now.

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St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at stpaul@edlotterman.com.

We have a full moon this weekend, which only seems appropriate since this is the 55th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing mission, the first time people landed on the moon. It’s so hard to believe it was that long ago. I was 13, but it seems like it was yesterday. It was the culmination and fulfillment of the challenge made by President John F. Kennedy in 1961 after Alan Shepard completed the first American manned mission into space. JFK challenged NASA to send Americans to land on the moon and safely return by 1970. This was a highly ambitious goal, considering the U.S. space program hadn’t even put a man in orbit around the Earth when he pitched his challenge. John Glenn wouldn’t do that for almost another year.

The goal of getting men to the moon in the ’60s was scientific exploration, but a significant part of the motivation was political and military. We had to make sure an American flag was planted on the moon instead of the red hammer and sickle of the communist Soviet Union. After all, they embarrassed the USA by getting the first satellite, Sputnik, into space in 1957. Then they rubbed it in when they got the first man into space and orbit on Earth in 1961. America needed to catch up and exceed the Soviets in space.

The successful race to the moon probably wouldn’t have happened without German scientists leftover from the Hitler-World War II era. They were at the leading edge of rocket development, and both the Soviet Union and the U.S. had them in the fold. The Germans developed the V2 rockets and were constantly hitting Great Britain and other European ally targets during WWll. The V2 was developed by Werner Von Braun, who eventually ended up on the American side with NASA. Von Braun designed the Saturn V rockets that launched Apollo astronauts to the moon. Developing rockets for human space flight, though, was secondary for the U.S. and U.S.S.R. The primary mission was to create missiles to transport nuclear weapons halfway across the world.

Even though lunar landing missions were born more out of politics than science, at least in my opinion, it was indeed an exciting time. In less than 75 years, we went from flying the first airplanes to landing on the moon. As a kid, I was really, really caught up in the manned spacecraft program in the 1960s. Don Fallen, my next-door neighbor and one of my best buddies, helped me build a space capsule of plywood in my back yard. We even went on pretend missions into space.

I remember the night before the Apollo 11 mission took off. I was so excited that I stayed up all night, eagerly anticipating the launch. I almost missed it because I fell asleep. Just in the nick of time though, I woke up 15 minutes before the launch and caught Walter Cronkite’s call on CBS TV. The thrill of that moment is something I’ll never forget.

As Apollo 11 raced to the moon in its three-day journey, I journeyed to CYC summer camp Near McGregor, Minn., for 10 days. I almost canceled the trip because I feared I’d miss the TV coverage. I had my Dad call the camp to ensure all campers would experience this history. They promised that they would. The rules of the camp prohibited transistor radios. I smuggled one in anyway, and the first night I was there, I crouched very uncomfortably, deep into my sleeping bag, and listened to any news I could about Apollo 11 with one of those old-fashioned earphones stuck in my ear. It worked. I never got busted!

Neil Armstrong, Mike Collins and Buzz Aldrin of the Apollo 11 mission (NASA)

Then Sunday, July 20, 1969, arrived, the day Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin climbed into the lunar module lander and left Mike Collins in the command module to continue orbiting the moon, awaiting the moon landers’ safe return. I remember the head camp counselor, Louie Grams, announcing over the camp loudspeakers that we were invited to the main lodge to watch the moon landing coverage. I was surprised that only about half of my fellow campers came. We were glued to that little black and white TV as Walter Cronkite proclaimed about 3:20 in the afternoon…. “Man on the Moon!” Shortly after that happened, we were shooed away from the TV. I just wasn’t going to settle for that. I knocked on the door of the councilor’s lodge, and short of pounding fists on the walls, I insisted that I get to see more of the coverage. They didn’t want a scene, so I spent a little time watching.

I wasn’t through, though, because that night, Neil Armstrong was to set foot on the moon around midnight local time. Lights were out for the campers at 10:30 p.m. I was prepared to listen to the coverage on my transistor radio in my sleeping bag, but by 11:00, I couldn’t stand it anymore. I snuck out of the tent and once again pounded on the door of the councilor’s lounge, where they were crowded around that same black and white TV. Once again, I got my way and watched that historic moment when Neil Armstrong proclaimed, “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.” Those ghostly images of Neil Armstrong hopping around on the moon with Buzz Aldrin are burned in my memory forever.

I’m not sure it’s all that beneficial for men and women to walk around the moon again someday. Robotic spacecraft can do an excellent job exploring the moon, which is much cheaper than sending people there. Also, it’s hazardous for humans to be out deep in space away from the protective magnetic fields of Earth for extended periods because they are so vulnerable to cosmic rays and solar storm radiation. Back in 1972, the Apollo 17 astronauts just missed being hit by lethal solar radiation.

There isn’t a way to protect humans from this, but hopefully, there will be someday. Until then, I don’t think it will be worth the risk.

This makes me even more impressed with the courage of the Apollo 11 astronauts and all the other moon missions that boldly went to and walked in a place where no human had ever been. Keep that in mind the next time you gaze upon the moon.

Mike Lynch is an amateur astronomer and retired broadcast meteorologist for WCCO Radio in Minneapolis/St. Paul. He is the author of “Stars: a Month by Month Tour of the Constellations,” published by Adventure Publications and available at bookstores and adventurepublications.net. Mike is available for private star parties. You can contact him at mikewlynch@comcast.net.

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From Simone Biles to Sha’Carri Richardson and Diana Taurasi to Katie Ledecky, Team USA will provide some of the biggest star power at the 2024 Olympic Games.

And it will be the women leading the way as the U.S. looks to top the overall medal table for the eighth consecutive Summer Games.

FILE – Sha’Carri Richardson, of the United States, celebrates after winning the gold medal in the final of the Women’s 100-meters during the World Athletics Championships in Budapest, Hungary, Aug. 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, File)

The nearly 600 athletes going to the Paris Olympics include more than 250 returning Olympians and 122 Olympic medalists. Golfers Xander Schauffele and Nelly Korda, along with surfer Carissa Moore, are among the numerous Olympians set to defend their titles in France.

It’s a loaded U.S. roster where the women outnumber the men 314 to 278 — at last count — and ages range from 16 to 59. The most decorated member of Team USA in Paris will be Ledecky, who’s trying to add to her collection of 10 medals (seven golds).

Comebacks and redemption

Biles is back in action after pulling out of multiple gymnastics finals in Tokyo to protect her mental health and safety. There’s Richardson making her Olympic debut after a much-debated absence three years ago because of a positive marijuana test.

The 27-year-old Biles leads a U.S. women’s gymnastics team filled with familiar faces and looking for redemption in Paris. The team settled for silver three years ago behind the Russian athletes competing as the Russian Olympic Committee.

Simone Biles celebrates as she is announced as a member of the Olympic Team on Day Four of the 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Gymnastics Trials at Target Center on June 30, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Richardson has become a media sensation for her speed, charisma and perseverance. The 100-meter world champion earned a spot for Tokyo in 2021 but was banned following her positive test for marijuana. It sparked an intense debate about whether she was being unfairly singled out for taking a substance that doesn’t improve performance.

The 24-year-old Richardson, who graces the cover of Vogue magazine, said she was “overwhelmed with the emotions of just joy” after making the team.

Star power on the court

On the court, hoops royalty LeBron James and Taurasi lead their teams. And it’s no surprise that the men’s and women’s basketball squads brimming with talent are heavy favorites to bring home the gold.

United States forward LeBron James watches play from the bench during the second half of an exhibition basketball game against Canada, Wednesday, July 10, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Steve Marcus)

James, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry join forces to lead a U.S. contingent going for a fifth straight Olympic title. A’ja Wilson, Brittney Griner and Taurasi headline a women’s squad that has won seven consecutive Olympic gold medals. Taurasi has been a part of five of them.

FILE – Kevin Durant poses for a photo with his gold medal during the medal ceremony for basketball game at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Aug. 7, 2021, in Tokyo, Japan. (AP Photo/Eric Gay, File)

Who else is on the Team USA roster?

Decorated swimmers Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel are on deck to shine again in the pool, and majors winners and world No. 1 golfers Scottie Scheffler and Korda take to the links.

FILE – Katie Ledecky swims during a Women’s 800 freestyle preliminary heat, June 21, 2024, at the US Swimming Olympic Trials in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy, File)

“We’re telling these stories — we’re laughing, we’re crying, we’re cheering them on,” said Lyndsay Signor, senior vice president of consumer engagement at NBC Sports. “So that really warrants both the combination of the athletes themselves and the celebrities we’ve partnered with.”

NBC has been airing promotional Olympic material around the clock. There’s Biles being interviewed by singer SZA. Other athletes featured in spots include Richardson, sprinter Noah Lyles, 400-meter hurdles world-record holder Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone, Ledecky and reigning Olympic all-around gymnastics winner Suni Lee.

The U.S. women’s soccer team, led by new coach Emma Hayes, chases after its first Olympic gold since 2012 and Victor Montalvo — “B-Boy Victor” — will be a contender when breaking makes its Olympic debut in Paris. Coco Gauff is among the favorites to bring home a medal on the clay courts at Roland Garros, the site of the French Open.

Medal forecast

That abundance of star power is why Nielsen’s Gracenote forecasts the U.S. hauling in 123 medals. That’s ahead of China (87), Britain (62) and France (56). This could be the eighth straight Summer Games where the Americans have topped the medal table.

“If American athletes win, that drives ratings and endorsements, and makes it attractive for American corporations to invest in the Olympic movement,” said Dr. Yoav Dubinsky, an instructor of sports business from the Lundquist College of Business at the University of Oregon. “All part of the story of American lifestyle. Their successes, and at times failures or adversities, contribute to Brand America.”

Olympic entertainers

NBC brought in Academy Award-winning director Steven Spielberg to narrate a short film titled, “Land of Stories,” where the Olympics set a scene to tell tales.

Even more stars will participate in the network’s coverage as celebrities Snoop Dogg, Kelly Clarkson, Peyton Manning, Colin Jost, Leslie Jones and Jimmy Fallon make appearances.

Play entertainer, Snoop Dogg gets a pole vault lesson during the U.S. Track and Field Olympic Team Trials Sunday, June 23, 2024, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Snoop already is trotting out his tracksuits to get in some work. The 52-year-old hip-hop star ran a 200-meter race against Ato Boldon and Wallace Spearmon at the Olympic track trials in Eugene, Oregon, last month.

His time was 34.44 seconds. Usain Bolt’s world record of 19.19 remains safe.

“(Snoop) has really brought a perspective that’s not only fun and interesting,” Signor said, “it’s lovable as well.”

By Graham Dunbar, AP Sports Writer

GENEVA (AP) — The founder of the modern Olympics and former IOC president, Pierre de Coubertin, once said women competing in the Games would be “impractical, uninteresting, unaesthetic and improper.”

Over a century later, the 2024 Paris Olympic Games are targeting gender parity in the same city where women made their Olympic debut in 1900.

The IOC set a goal of a 50-50 split among the more than 11,000 men and women, including backups, registered to compete from July 26 to Aug. 11. However, the latest numbers from the IOC suggest organizers might fall just short of that target.

Slightly more medal events for men than women

There is still a slight edge toward men among the 329 medal events at the Paris Olympics. The IOC has said there are 157 men’s events, 152 women’s events and 20 mixed-gender events.

Of the 32 sports, 28 are “ fully gender equal,” the IOC said, including the new event of breaking to music. Rhythmic gymnastics is still for women only but men are allowed to compete in artistic swimming.

FILE – Faith Kipyegon, of Kenya leads 1500m Women Final, during the Kenya track and field Paris 2024 Olympics trials, at the Nyayo National Stadium Nairobi, Kenya Saturday, June 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga)

Mixed-gender team events were strongly pushed. In Tokyo three years ago, vivid images were created by debuts for 4×400 meters mixed relay on the track and 4×100 mixed medley relay in swimming.

“There is nothing more equal than a male and female competing as one team on the same field of play towards the same sports performance,” the IOC’s sports director, Kit McConnell, has said.

How many athletes entered to compete in Paris?

One week before the opening ceremony, the official IOC database for the Paris Olympics showed 11,215 athletes, including backups, registered to compete: 5,712 in men’s events and 5,503 in women’s events or a 51-49% split.

In track and field, which has qualifying standards the athletes much reach, there were 50 more registered for the men’s events than women’s: 1,091-1,041. In swimming, the difference was 464-393.

In soccer, with 16 teams in the men’s tournament and just 12 in the women’s, the athlete tally was 351-264. The wrestling entry has 193 men and 96 women, with a men-only category in Greco-Roman.

In equestrian, where men and women compete in the same events, entries were 154-96.

No men were registered in artistic swimming or rhythmic gymnastics, which have a total of 200 women. There’s no men’s category in rhythmic gymnastics.

Which teams have more athletes in women’s events?

As the biggest team at the Paris Olympics, the United States has the most competitors in women’s events with 338, or 53% of its 638-strong delegation, according to the IOC’s games database this week.

The 38 fewer men is partly because the U.S. qualified a squad of 19 in women’s field hockey but didn’t qualify in the men’s competition, and registered nine women in artistic swimming.

France, with invitations to compete in every team event, had 293 female athletes registered. Australia had 276, China 259 and Germany 239.

FILE – The Olympic rings are mounted on the Eiffel Tower Friday, June 7, 2024 in Paris. (AP Photo//Thomas Padilla, File)

Other teams, albeit with many fewer athletes, have more women on their squads.

Guam, a U.S. island territory east of the Philippines, led the way with 87.5% women — seven in its team of eight athletes, according to the IOC database. Guam’s seven women are in six different sports. Nicaragua is set to arrive with 86% women — six of its seven athletes — and Sierra Leone with 80%.

Kosovo’s strength in women’s judo — four of its total team of nine athletes — lifts its percentage of women to 77%. North Korea, Laos and Vietnam each has 75% female athletes on their teams.

Which teams have the fewest women?

Six of the 205 official Olympic teams had no elite-level female athlete registered to compete: Belize, Guinea-Bissau, Iraq, Liechtenstein, Nauru and Somalia.

Qatar, which wants to host the 2036 Olympics, has just one woman in its 14-athlete team or 7%. Half the Qatari team represents men’s track and field, including the defending champion in high jump Mutaz Essa Barshim.

Mali and South Sudan are at 7%. Mali will send 22 male soccer players and South Sudan 12 athletes in men’s basketball.

El Salvador has one woman among eight athletes (12.5%).

Two nonbinary athletes competing

The registered entries to women’s events in Paris include two athletes who identify as nonbinary and transgender.

Nikki Hiltz won the 1,500 meters event at the U.S. track and field trials last month and will make their Olympic debut at Stade de France.

Nikki Hiltz wins the women’s 1500-meter final during the U.S. Track and Field Olympic Team Trials, Sunday, June 30, 2024, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Quinn won Olympic gold with the Canadian soccer team in Tokyo three years ago and returns to help defend the title.

When did women first compete in Olympics?

Paris hosted the first female athletes at the 1900 Olympics — in the second modern Games — with 22 of the 997 athletes in competition, or 2.2% of the total. The modern Olympics began in 1896 in Athens.

Women competed in tennis and golf, plus team events of sailing, croquet and equestrian in Paris.

Charlotte Cooper of Britain was the first female individual gold medalist in tennis singles.

Gender parity over the decades

Just 4.4% of the athletes were women when Paris again hosted the Olympics exactly 100 years ago. In 1924, the “Chariots of Fire” Olympics, there were 135 women competing among 3,089 athletes, according to the IOC’s research.

The number rose to 9.5% at the 1932 Los Angeles Olympics, dropped to 8.4% in Berlin four years later, and got back to 9.5% when the Summer Games were held in London in 1948.

The Olympic rings are seen on the Eiffel Tower, Sunday, July 14, 2024, in Paris. (AP Photo/Aurelien Morissard)

The rise included a bump to 20.7% female athletes in Montreal in 1976 and got close to 23% when the Games returned to Los Angeles in 1984. That’s when rhythmic gymnastics and artistic swimming, then called synchronized, made their debuts.

The IOC put pressure on Olympic teams that traditionally sent only men to complete. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Brunei included women for the first time at the 2012 London Olympics. That’s where 44.2% of the athletes competed in women’s events at the Olympics. The number rose to 45% in Rio 2016 and reached 48% at the Tokyo Games, where teams were encouraged to select a man and a woman to be flag-bearers at the opening ceremony.

How did we get here?

The IOC formally committed to “foster gender quality” as part of a package of wide-ranging reforms pushed in December 2014 by the recently-elected president Thomas Bach.

The IOC’s sports department worked with the sports’ governing bodies to remove some men’s medal events and add more for women. The federations have since achieved more equity on the field of play for female athletes than for women in their own offices.

A 2020 review of the 31 sports governing bodies at the Tokyo Olympics found only one achieved 40% women on its board and 18 had female representation of 25% or less.