Downplaying AI’s existential risks is a fatal error, some say

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Gopal Ratnam | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — A handful of lawmakers say they plan to press the issue of the threat to humans posed by generative artificial intelligence after a recent bipartisan Senate report largely sidestepped the matter.

“There’s been no action taken yet, no regulatory action taken yet, at least here in the United States, that would restrict the types of actions that could lead to existential, or health, or other serious consequences,” Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said in an interview. “And that’s something we’d like to see happen.”

Romney joined Sens. Jack Reed, D-R.I., Jerry Moran, R-Kan., and Angus King, I-Maine, in April to propose a framework that would establish federal oversight of so-called frontier AI models to guard against biological, chemical, cyber and nuclear threats.

Frontier AI models include ChatGPT by OpenAI, Claude 3 by Anthropic PBC and Gemini Ultra by Google LLC, which are capable of generating human-like responses when prompted, based on training with vast quantities of data.

The lawmakers said in a document explaining their proposal that it calls for a federal agency or coordinating body that would enforce new safeguards, “which would apply to only the very largest and most advanced models.”

“Such safeguards would be reevaluated on a recurring basis to anticipate evolving threat landscapes and technology,” they said.

AI systems’ potential threats were highlighted by a group of scientists, tech industry executives and academics in a May 2023 open letter advising that “mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” The signatories included top executives from OpenAI, Microsoft Corp., Google, Anthropic and others.

Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., who holds a computer science degree and was one of the signatories of that letter, said he remains concerned about the existential risks.

He said that he and Rep. Sara Jacobs, D-Calif., sought to address one aspect in the fiscal 2025 defense policy bill advanced by the House Armed Services Committee last month. The provision would require a human to be in the loop on any decision involving the launch of a nuclear weapon, to prevent autonomous AI systems from causing World War III.

Lieu, co-chair of the bipartisan House Task Force on Artificial Intelligence, said in an interview that he and others have tried to address further risks. But he and his colleagues are still trying to grasp the depths of these perils, such as AI spitting out instructions to build a better chemical or a biological weapon.

“That is an issue we’re looking at now,” Lieu said. “How you want to prevent that is a whole different sort of issue that can get very complicated, so we’re still gathering data and trying to explore.”

There are several proposals to control and supervise advanced AI systems, though none have been fast-tracked in Congress.

In August 2023, Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Josh Hawley, R-Mo., proposed a licensing regime for advanced AI models that would be managed by a federal agency. Companies developing such AI models would be required to register with the agency, which would have authority to audit the models and issue licenses.

Policymaking pace

Experts studying technology and policy say that Congress and federal agencies should act before tech companies turn out AI systems with even more advanced capabilities.

“Policymakers should begin to put in place today a regulatory framework to prepare for this future,” when highly capable systems are widely available around the world, Paul Scharre, executive vice president at the Center for a New American Security, wrote in a recent report. “Building an anticipatory regulatory framework is essential because of the disconnect in speeds between AI progress and the policymaking process, the difficulty in predicting the capabilities of new AI systems for specific tasks, and the speed with which AI models proliferate today, absent regulation.

“Waiting to regulate frontier AI systems until concrete harms materialize will almost certainly result in regulation being too late,” said Scharre, a former Pentagon official who helped prepare the Defense Department’s policies on the use of autonomous weapons systems.

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., who led a monthslong effort of briefings with dozens of tech industry executives, civil society groups and experts, last month issued a bipartisan policy road map on AI legislation.

The road map and associated material mentioned existential risks just once — it noted some participants in one briefing were “quite concerned about the possibilities for AI systems to cause severe harm,” while others were more optimistic.

The report directed various congressional committees to address legislation on AI through their normal legislative processes.

One reason the risks may be downplayed is that some in the tech industry say fears of existential risks from AI are overblown.

IBM, for example, has urged lawmakers to stay away from licensing and federal oversight for advanced AI systems.

Chris Padilla, IBM’s vice president for government and regulatory affairs, last week recounted for reporters the stance of Chief Privacy and Trust Officer Christina Montgomery, who told participants at a Schumer briefing that she didn’t think AI is an existential risk to humanity and that the U.S. doesn’t need a government licensing regime.

IBM has advocated an open-source approach, which would allow experts and developers around the world to see how AI models are designed and built and what data is ingested by them, Padilla said.

A large community of AI developers peering into algorithms that power the AI systems can potentially identify dangers and threats better than a single company scrutinizing its own product, Padilla said. That approach differs widely, however, from OpenAI and Microsoft, which uses OpenAI’s models, that are advocating proprietary AI systems that are not subject to public scrutiny.

Padilla and Daniela Combe, vice president for emerging technologies at IBM, compared the company’s open-source approach to the widespread use of Linux operating system that runs on IBM’s mainframe computers. Microsoft declined to comment on the idea.

Instead of licensing and regulatory oversight of AI models, the government should hold developers and users of AI systems legally liable for harms they cause, Padilla said. “The main way that our CEO suggested this happen is through legal liability, basically, through the courts,” he said.

Padilla spoke to reporters before as many as 100 IBM executives traveled last week to Washington to meet with lawmakers on AI legislation. IBM and its subsidiaries spent $5.6 million lobbying Congress last year on a variety of issues that included AI, according to data from OpenSecrets.org.

The issue isn’t likely to be resolved soon, as Padilla and others say legislation this year is doubtful.

At least one key lawmaker agreed. Asked whether his AI proposal is likely to turn into legislation and pass this year, Romney said it may not.

“It’s unlikely this year because we move as slow as molasses,” he said. “Particularly in an election year.”

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©2024 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Police group to push for new gun laws as crime hangs over campaign

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Mary Ellen McIntire | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

A group of law enforcement officials touted the formation of a new organization Tuesday to endorse federal candidates and argue that Congress has not done enough to protect public safety.

The announcement followed new crime statistics that the White House said showed President Joe Biden’s policies at work, and during an election where public perceptions about crime is seen a tool Republicans can use to win seats in Congress.

The new group, Police Leaders for Community Safety, plans to push for stronger gun laws, such as closing loopholes, requiring background checks for gun buyers, and cracking down on “ghost guns.” It also wants to provide support for the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

“Our organization was formed by prominent police leaders from around the nation that are completely fed up to act on vital measures that we know will save lives and make us all safer,” said Susan Riseling, the chair of the group’s board of directors who served as police chief and associate vice chancellor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

The group said it is nonpartisan, but it also plans to endorse candidates and focusing on stricter gun laws is a position more commonly taken by Democrats. It’s also one Biden addressed separately on Tuesday.

Biden hailed anti-gun activists at an event in Washington hosted by the Everytown for Gun Safety group, saying collectively they have helped power a movement that is helping turn this cause into reality. And he delivered a shout-out for a key voting bloc.

“Especially young people who demanded our nation do better. … You protested, you organized, you voted, you ran for office, and yes, you marched for (your) lives. From my perspective, today is about celebrating you,” Biden said.

Biden’s remarks came hours after a jury found his son, Hunter Biden, guilty on three felony charges related to lying on a firearms application. He did not address the case in his speech.

Biden did say those at the event had helped drive down violent crime. Some Republican lawmakers and conservative media outlets for months have described major U.S. cities as crime-riddled and a reason voters should reject Democrats. The White House and Biden campaign in recent days have pushed federal data showing the opposite.

“Last year, we saw the largest decrease in murder in history,” he said. “Last year, we also saw one of the lowest rates of violent crime in nearly 50 years.”

Violent crime drop

It appears that violent crime is continuing to trend downwards. The FBI announced on Monday a 15 percent decrease in reported violent crime across the country in the first quarter of the year compared to the same time period in 2023. Overall, reported murders dropped by more than 26%, rape by more than 25%, robbery by more than 17% and aggravated assault by 12%, according to FBI statistics.

The Biden administration touted the decrease in a statement Monday, citing funding for law enforcement in the 2021 pandemic recovery law and changes brought about by a 2022 gun violence law.

The decrease in the first quarter of 2024 continues from a smaller decrease of 5% in all violent crime for the last quarter of 2023 relative to the last quarter of 2022, according to FBI statistics. At the time, the Biden administration touted that decrease as reaching a nearly 50-year low in reported violent crime.

Research by Gallup and others, however, has shown a disconnect between actual crime data and Americans’ reported perception of crime. In 2023, even as crime declined from a pandemic high, 77% of respondents to a Gallup poll reported that there was more crime that year than the year before.

A House Republican strategist said that much of Republicans’ messaging on crime this year is likely to be tied to blaming Biden and Democrats for the border crisis. Focusing on crime could continue to be meaningful in New York, where Republicans flipped several House seats that helped them clinch control in 2022, as well as in other areas that have seen a surge in migrants, such as Colorado.

Even if statistics show that crime is going down, messaging on crime can still be effective if people don’t feel safe in their communities, the strategist said.

The new group, led by former police professionals, many of whom also consult or teach, said it plans to begin accepting donations from the public and will endorse candidates in federal races whose policy positions match theirs.

Dave Mahoney, the group’s treasurer, said during a press conference that a committee is working on a process for assessing candidates and considering endorsements that they hope to roll out shortly. He didn’t detail what sort of support the group’s endorsed candidates would receive.

Dan Oates, who was the police chief in Aurora, Colo,. in July 2012 when a gunman killed 12 people in a movie theater, said Congress “has failed to act on common sense regulations to control these weapons.” He pushed back on those who say new restrictions would violate the Second Amendment.

“Our organization strongly supports the Constitution and all its amendments,” Oates said. “We also know that there are precedents and lawful means to ensure reasonable regulations and restrictions on military assault rifles.”

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(John T. Bennett and Michael Macagnone contributed to this report.)

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©2024 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

At Nixon Library, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. advocates for scaling back America’s military presence

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Third-party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. advocated for scaling back America’s military presence abroad as he addressed supporters in Yorba Linda Wednesday evening, June 12, about his foreign policy approach.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Michael Maxsenti of Irvine listens as presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. delivers a speech outlining his foreign policy vision before a gathering of 300 people at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, June 12, 2024. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG)

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Criticizing U.S. foreign policy, which he described as “stuck in a world that doesn’t exist,” Kennedy said the country seems to think that “we’re still the world’s only superpower and can bend any nation to its will.”

Kennedy, in the midst of a long-shot bid for the White House, detailed his foreign policy platform at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, part of the foundation’s Presidential Policy Perspective series. But while he advocated for scaling back the country’s foreign interventions, there was no mention of the current war in Ukraine or the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East, which has rocked local communities and resulted in large protests on college campuses.

Related: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. points to housing affordability in pitch to Southern California voters

“The foundation of a nation’s strength is the sound of its infrastructure, the integrity of its government, economic strength … and respect of choices abroad,” Kennedy said. “We have to accept the emergence of other great powers in the world.”

Kennedy has stated before that the U.S. should reduce its military presence abroad. He said the U.S. should “vastly scale back the military budget,” most of which he said has no role in defending the homeland. He said he’d propose a 50% reduction in military spending while he’s in office, if elected, which he said would engender a “stronger, smarter, better targeted national defense.”

Those dollars should be redirected to the infrastructure, education and building small businesses, Kennedy said.

The primary issue he’d focus on as president is the national debt, which he cited as “one of the reasons why we have to cut back from our military budget.”

The national budget deficit currently hovers at around $1.2 trillion.

“Every dollar we spend on weapons could create new jobs,” he said.

With a nod to former President John F. Kennedy, his uncle, Kennedy said, “My uncle spent three years in office battling the military-industrial complex … he understood the primary job of the president is to keep the country out of war.”

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“I foresee a day when America will lead the world by example and not by force, a day when America stands for peace and not for war,” Kennedy said.

Before delving into his foreign policy speech, Kennedy, who’s espoused unproven conspiracies, particularly on vaccinations, harped on the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. He criticized the decision to close down businesses “with no due process and public hearings.” In an attempt to slow the spread of the virus, nonessential businesses were shuttered and stay-at-home orders were put into place in early 2020 in many states, including California.

Ahead of the evening program, Irvine resident Michael Maxsenti, among the 300 or so visitors who paid up to $75 a ticket for Kennedy’s remarks, said he was impressed by the environmental activist’s commitment to peace around the world.

Maxsenti, who leads volunteer efforts in Orange County and around California for Kennedy’s campaign, said he agreed with Kennedy’s foreign policy approach, namely his plans to reduce American military presence overseas.

“We have to project our strength and power through economic means, not military means,” he said.

Maxsenti, who said he was a “Reagan conservative Republican” until 2010 when he switched to “no party preference,” said he felt then, that neither of the two major parties — when given the opportunity to lead the country — delivered results they had promised.

Maxsenti said he believes Kennedy, as president, would “approach other countries from a place of understanding and always try to seek peace.”

Kennedy, who’s so far on the ballot in only six states — California, Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Oklahoma and Utah — is running as an independent, as is political activist Cornel West, who also recently touched down in Orange County.

While an independent candidate has never won the presidency, well-known independent candidates could potentially spell trouble for major party candidates, especially in battleground states, by siphoning away their support.

Kennedy, who’s recognized by his last name and longstanding family heritage — aside from being the nephew of the former president, he is the son of former U.S. Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy — is polling a distant third in California, per an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, but poses a threat to President Joe Biden among Latino voters.

new poll from Vote Latino showed Kennedy doing fairly well among Latino voters. One in five Latino voters surveyed said they’re considering a presidential candidate other than Biden or former President Donald Trump, according to the poll, with Kennedy receiving the biggest support among candidates not from major parties.

While the poll was not conducted in California (it surveyed voters in five swing states: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas and Pennsylvania), the phenomenon seen in those states among Latino voters would hold for California as well, said UC Irvine political science professor Louis DeSipio.

DeSipio said there may be more appeal for third-party candidates in California because it’s not a battleground, thus an “easier vote” for voters. Plus, there is frustration among Latino voters, who are younger than average, with both Trump and Biden because of their “age and perception that neither of them understands the experience of young working Latinos,” said DeSipio.

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The Kennedy name may also evoke positive memories for many in the Latino community, DeSipio added, who may recollect his father’s alliance with striking farmworkers in the sixties and fight for civil rights issues important to the Latino community alongside the late labor leader Cesar Chavez. (Chavez’s family, however, endorsed Biden and has asked Kennedy to stop invoking his name on the campaign trail.)

Whether the findings of the poll will still hold true in November, DeSipio said he isn’t sure.

“Often the pattern is that voters in general are more positively inclined toward third party candidates months out from the election, but as the elections gets closer, they go back into their normal partisan silos,” he said.

In Yorba Linda, where the Nixon Library is located, Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly double, 47.9% to 26.5%, and two in 10 voters have no party preference. The city boasts one of the highest shares of registered Republican voters in Orange County, second only to nearby Villa Park, where over half of registered voters are Republican.

But the hundreds of people who packed the spacious East Room on Wednesday evening didn’t show much of an appetite for Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, giving Kennedy a standing ovation before and after his speech. Several people in the audience flashed him a thumbs-up or heart hands at the end of the evening.

Several cars in the parking lot had bumper stickers and signs that read “Kennedy 2024.”

Kennedy’s speech was part of the Nixon Library’s 2024 Presidential Policy Perspectives series, for which every major party declared presidential candidate was invited to visit the Nixon Library and “deliver remarks in any format, on any topic,” according to the Library.

Other presidential candidates who have spoken at the presidential library include former 2024 GOP contenders Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Trump returns to Capitol Hill and whips up Republican lawmakers, a first meeting since Jan. 6 attack

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By LISA MASCARO (AP Congressional Correspondent)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump made a triumphant return Thursday to Capitol Hill, whipping up House and Senate Republicans in his first meetings since the Jan.6, 2021 attacks, embraced by GOP lawmakers who find themselves newly energized by his bid to retake the White House.

Despite the federal charges against Trump for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, and his recent guilty verdict in an unrelated hush money trial, the Republican former president arrived emboldened as the party’s presumptive nominee. He has successfully purged the GOP of critics, silenced most skeptics and enticed once-critical lawmakers aboard his MAGA-fueled campaign.

A packed room of House Republicans sang “Happy Birthday” to Trump in the private breakfast meeting at GOP campaign headquarters across the street from the Capitol. The lawmakers gave him a baseball and bat from the annual congressional game. Trump bragged that even his telephone rallies for lawmakers could draw bigger crowds than mega-popstar Taylor Swift, who has yet to make any endorsement.

“President Trump brought an extraordinary amount of energy, excitement and enthusiasm this morning,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, noting high fund-raising tallies since the guilty verdict. “We’re feeling good.”

The Republican speaker had demurred earlier over whether he’s asked Trump to respect the peaceful transfer of presidential power and commit to not doing another Jan. 6. “Of course he respects that, we all do, and we’ve all talked about it, ad nauseum.”

Trump told Johnson Thursday he thinks the speaker is doing a “terrific job,” according to a Republican in the private meeting and granted anonymity to discuss it. He asked Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, the speaker’s chief Republican critic, if she was being “nice” to Johnson, another Republican said.

Trump spent about an hour with House Republicans delivering free-wheeling remarks, fielding questions and discussing issues — including Russia and immigration and also tax cuts and other priorities for a potential second term. On one major controversial issue, Trump told lawmakers that abortion rules should be left to the states and said he supported exceptions for rape, incest and to save the life of the mother, lawmakers said.

Senate Republicans welcomed Trump next in the afternoon, as protesters clamored at both locations and police beefed up security.

Many potential priorities for a new White House administration are being formulated by a constellation of outside groups, including Project 2025, laying the groundwork for executive and legislative actions, though Trump has made clear he has his own agenda.

“Anybody who thought that this president was going to be down after the sham trial. it’s only giving him even more energy,” said Rep. Tom Emmer, the GOP whip. “Donald Trump is crushing this election.”

But Trump’s private meetings with House and Senate Republicans so close to the Capitol were infused with the symbolism of his return as the U.S. president who threatened the American tradition of the peaceful transfer of power.

“It’s frustrating,” said former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who made his own unsuccessful run for Congress as a Maryland Democrat in the aftermath of Jan. 6, the day when police engaged in hand-to-hand fighting to stop Trump supporters who stormed the building in an effort to overturn President Joe Biden’s election.

Dunn spoke of the “irony” of Trump returning to the area and lawmakers now embracing him. “It just shows the lack of backbone they have when they’re truly putting party and person over country,” he said. “And it’s sad.”

Biden was overseas Thursday attending a summit of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, but the president’s campaign unveiled a new ad blaming Trump for lighting the “fire” of Jan. 6 and threatening democracy.

Many of those who once stood up to Trump are long gone from office and the Republicans who remain seem increasingly enthusiastic about the possibility of him retaking the White House, and the down-ballot windfall that could mean for their own GOP majorities in Congress.

Thursday was to include an encounter between Trump and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who once blamed Trump for the “disgraceful” attack that he called an “insurrection” but now endorses the party’s presumptive nominee. “Of course I’ll be at the meeting.”

Sen. John Thune, the GOP whip who is vying to replace McConnell as leader, told The Associated Press that he was interested in hearing from Trump about the fall election. “I think there’s an opportunity there to really make this a big win,” he said.

As democracies around the world come under threat from a far-rightward shift, some analysts warn that the U.S. system, once seemingly immune from authoritarian impulses, is at risk of populist and extremist forces like those that Trump inspired to sack the Capitol.

“This is just another example of House Republicans bending the knee to Donald Trump,” said Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, the chairman of the House Democratic caucus.

Making Jan. 6 a cornerstone of his reelection campaign, Trump celebrates those who stormed the Capitol as “warriors” and “patriots,” and he has vowed to pardon any number of the more than 1,300 convicted of crimes for the assault on the seat of U.S. democracy.

Moreover, Trump has vowed to seek retribution by ousting officials at the U.S. Justice Department, which is prosecuting him in a four-count indictment to overturn the election ahead of the Jan. 6 attack and another case over storing classified documents at his Mar-A-Largo home.

Republicans, particularly in the House but increasingly in the Senate, are vigorously following his lead, complaining of an unfair justice system. Alongside Trump, the House and Senate GOP campaign arms scored some of their highest fundraising periods yet after a jury found him guilty in the New York hush money case.

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When former GOP Speaker Paul Ryan on Fox News reiterated this week that he wouldn’t be voting for Trump and wished Republicans had another choice for president, he was immediately ostracized by Trump allies.

“Paul Ryan, you’re a piece of garbage,” said Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas. “We should kick you out of the party.”

Of the Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over Jan. 6 and convict him on the charge of inciting the insurrection, only a few remain in office.

Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, were not expected to attend Thursday’s closed-door session with Trump. But Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, had a change of plans and was to join.

Also Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., said he would likely join the Trump meeting at GOP senators’ campaign headquarters, expecting “he’s going to be the next president, so you have to work” together.

Asked if he was concerned about the direction of the Trump Republican Party, Cassidy said: “Let the day’s own troubles be sufficient for the day. You can fill yourself up with anxiety about tomorrow, but will it change a thing? No.”

Associated Press writers Jill Colvin, Farnoush Amiri, Kevin Freking, Mary Clare Jalonick and Stephen Groves contributed to this report.