Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Herb Jackson | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — Unlike this year’s presidential and Senate races that are focused on a few intensely competitive states, there is no shortage of House battlegrounds across the country as Republicans look to expand their narrow majority while Democrats work to seize back the gavel they lost in 2022.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales has nine incumbents — four Democrats and five Republicans — in races rated Toss-up and another 17 rated either Tilt Democratic or Tilt Republican, a classification that’s just a hair beyond Toss-up.
To identify the 10 most vulnerable and rank them, Roll Call’s campaign team quizzed party insiders and interest group leaders over the past two weeks and analyzed district dynamics, polling and candidates’ campaign finances. Unlike the Senate, where the traditional Top 10 has only seven names in the latest update, it was a challenge paring this list to just 10 because there are certainly many more incumbents battling for survival on Nov. 5.
As with earlier versions of this list published in May, in November, and in May 2023, Republicans from California and New York are well represented because they dominate the roster of members who won seats in 2022 that in 2020 backed Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump.
From the beginning of this election cycle, Democrats have been targeting the “Biden-district Republicans” as they seek to flip the net of four seats needed to control the chamber next year. The GOP also knows that, however, and has worked to shore up their colleagues.
Democrats are also playing defense, especially for members from Washington state and Alaska who hold seats that backed Trump in 2020. Alaska’s Mary Peltola makes the list for the first time this cycle after the state’s complicated primary process ended up with only one GOP opponent compared with the two she faced in 2022.
Some members on earlier versions of this list are not on this one because their prospects improved, such as New York Republican Mike Lawler, whose race rating was upgraded by Inside Elections from Toss-up to Tilt Republican. But others are gone because they proved their vulnerability by losing primaries, as Democrats Cori Bush and Jamal Bowman did, or were actually expelled by their colleagues, as Republican George Santos was.
This list may change again before Election Day, especially after fundraising results from the crucial third quarter are reported Oct. 15. Not on this list, for example, is Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, a Republican whose biggest threat comes not from a Democrat but from his party’s presidential nominee, Trump. Trump has called for his ouster because Newhouse voted to impeach him after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol by Trump supporters. Newhouse got just 23 percent of the vote in the state’s all-party primary last month, well behind the 33 percent received by Trump-backed rival Jerrod Sessler, who will be on the ballot with Newhouse in November.
In all, the latest list includes six Republicans and four Democrats, in line with what’s expected to be a close battle for control of the House. Inside Elections’ latest House projection ranges from a Democratic gain of five seats to a Republican gain of five seats.
Williams, whose district became more Democratic-leaning when New York adopted a new congressional map earlier this year, holds on to the distinction as the most vulnerable House member. He will face John Mannion, a state senator who won a competitive June primary. That dynamic left Williams in a stronger financial position at the end of the second quarter, when he had $1.4 million on hand compared to Mannion’s $341,000.
Duarte, a nursery owner from Modesto, will face Democrat Adam Gray in a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Duarte won by less than 600 votes. Democrats have a 42 percent to 29 percent voter registration advantage in the district, which runs along Interstate 5 and covers a broad swath of the rural Central Valley. Duarte is hoping his reputation as a moderate and his focus on water issues will push him to victory while Gray touts his record in the Assembly, where he helped secure funding to address gang violence, bolster water infrastructure and build a new medical school in the region. Duarte had $2 million on hand to Gray’s $1.8 million.
D’Esposito faces a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he beat in 2022, a strong year for Republicans in New York. The GOP is optimistic about another strong year in the Empire State, but D’Esposito will need to overcome a district which Biden would have won easily, as well as Gillen’s slight cash advantage as of June 30, when she had $2.5 million on hand to his $2.2 million. Gillen’s opening ad of the general election sought to reintroduce her to the public and touched on crime and border security – two issues typically focused on by Republicans and that have been focal points in recent Long Island races.
Gluesenkamp Pérez has drawn national attention for her blue-collar roots as she seeks a second term in a GOP-leaning district in southwest Washington. She’s running against Joe Kent, a Trump-backed Republican she narrowly beat in 2022. National GOP leaders have warmed to Kent, saying he’s running a stronger campaign than he did two years ago. But he trailed Gluesenkamp Pérez in fundraising, with $585,000 on hand to her $3.8 million. Gluesenkamp Pérez, co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, has emphasized her political independence. Earlier this year, she not only called on Biden to drop his reelection bid but suggested he resign from office due to concerns about his mental acuity.
Davis stays in the middle of the list as he seeks a second term in North Carolina’s only Toss-up district, which covers the northeastern part of the state. The former state senator faces Republican Laurie Buckhout, a veteran and businesswoman who is focusing largely on border security. Buckhout partially self-funded her primary campaign, but had $600,000 on hand as of June 30, compared to Davis’ $2.6 million. Outside spending is starting to pick up in the race.
After narrowly defeating progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022, freshman Chavez-DeRemer faces Democrat Janelle Bynum in a battleground district that reaches from the Portland suburbs to rural regions to the south and east. Bynum, a state lawmaker and McDonald’s franchisee, has emphasized kitchen table issues and has criticized Chavez-DeRemer on abortion rights. Republicans have attacked Bynum over her support for police reform legislation. A poll by Inside Elections last week had Bynum at 41 percent to Chavez-DeRemer’s 39 percent, within the margin of error. Chavez-DeRemer had $2.4 million in the bank to Bynum’s $1.1 million.
Running in a suburban swing district centered on Omaha, Bacon is used to tight races. He beat Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas by 3 percentage points in 2022, but Democrats are hoping for a different outcome in a presidential year, especially following Biden’s decision to step aside. Bacon says he’s a centrist willing to work across the aisle but Vargas called his GOP opponent “an extremist in moderate’s clothing.” Meanwhile, Republicans have attacked Vargas as a big-spending liberal who walks in lockstep with his party. Recent polls suggest the race remains a Toss-up and the candidates’ bank accounts were closely matched: Bacon had $2.2 million on hand to Vargas’ $2.5 million.
Running for reelection to the state’s sole congressional district, Peltola faces Republican Nick Begich, Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe, and Democrat Eric Hafner, who is currently imprisoned in New Jersey, in the ranked choice general election in November. Peltola has carved out a unique brand in a place that puts a high value on political independence: her website touts her support for guns and abortion. She enjoys a big cash advantage, with $2.8 million on hand to Begich’s $172,000. Still Peltola faces a potential tough climb in a state that Trump won by 10 percentage points and as the lone Republican on the ballot, Begich can unify the GOP.
Garcia has long been viewed as vulnerable in the battleground district north of Los Angeles, where Democratic voter registration outpaces Republican registration by 13 percentage points and Biden won by 13 points. Garcia’s 2022 win marked the third time that the former naval officer and first-generation American defeated Democrat Christy Smith. But this year, he’s facing a new opponent: George Whitesides, the former CEO of the space tourism company Virgin Galactic. Whitesides loaned his campaign $1.3 million and had $3.9 million on hand; Garcia had $2.2 million.
A veteran of tough races, Cartwright faces another this fall against Republican Rob Bresnahan, who’s considered a stronger candidate than recent GOP challengers. Republicans are seeking to tie Cartwright to Biden in one of the five districts held by a Democrat that Trump would have won in 2020. The presidential year dynamics will once again make for a competitive race in the 8th District. Cartwright had $4.5 million on hand at the end of June compared to Bresnahan’s $1.2 million.
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