Juan Pablo Spinetto: Venezuela needs its neighbors’ help more than ever

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Of all the different scenarios in Venezuela’s election on Sunday, we witnessed the most likely one: Nicolás Maduro was announced as the winner of the vote by the country’s electoral authority controlled by the authoritarian president’s close allies.

Shortly past midnight in Caracas, the National Electoral Council said that Maduro got 51% of the vote compared with 44% for rival Edmundo González, despite polls showing the opposition candidate clearly ahead by double-digit margins.

The electoral body didn’t produce the individual tallies from each voting station to support such a result after saying it received a “terrorist” attack on its transmission systems. How inconvenient! It also called the result “irreversible” even if 20% of the votes were still uncounted and the difference between both candidates was just seven percentage points. Equally suspicious, it took them more than six hours to release the count; you would think that a result so unexpectedly favorable to the government would have been published very quickly to squash any malign speculation.

The opposition denounced the result for what it is: a farce that only crowns a process tainted from the beginning, with its main leader María Corina Machado saying that based on the 40% of the tabulated ballots they had managed to secure, Gonzalez was winning 70% of the vote.

With both sides claiming victory, the short-term outlook is increased political instability and uncertainty. Latin America and the countries that want to see a democratic and prosperous Venezuela should get involved fast to help find a path that respects the will of the millions of citizens who braved obstruction and violence to cast their vote.

Maduro was never going to accept defeat, and the idea he would quietly exit the presidential palace was always wishful thinking. At the same time, his strategy can’t be confused with strength or invincibility: It’s a bet consistent with the hegemonic behavior of Chavismo, the socialist movement that has governed Venezuela for more than 25 years, and one that nonetheless contains several risks for the regime.

For a start, the electoral body has to show the tallies proving the result (the CNE pledged to do it the “coming hours”). This is key because at this moment only Venezuela’s most staunch allies (i.e., Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Iran, Russia and China) have congratulated Maduro for his “victory.”

And if it’s true that the opposition certified 40% of the votes, that should be enough to prove the numbers don’t add up. As Chilean President Gabriel Boric rightly said, the results are “difficult to believe,” adding that his country wouldn’t recognize unverifiable outcomes. The U.S. and the European Union expressed similar concerns.

While the silence of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Colombia counterpart Gustavo Petro on Sunday night can be interpreted as a tactical concession, it could also be a sign of backdoor diplomatic negotiations. (Colombia’s foreign minister, Luis Gilberto Murillo, subsequently called for a speedy independent verification and audit.) Petro (and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the region’s other big leftist leader) are unlikely to come out harshly against Maduro, but Lula vented his frustration with the Venezuelan leader days before the vote. And his foreign affairs adviser Celso Amorim was in Caracas for the vote. Brazil’s position will carry significant weight in this drama, where the already-damaged legitimacy of the regime is shrinking even further.

And then we have Venezuela’s armed forces, which should be now making their own calculations. Machado appealed to the military once again on Sunday night, saying she expected them to enforce the popular vote. Although she said her movement is peaceful, the opposition’s capacity to mobilize protestors if needed shouldn’t be dismissed.

All in all, these are treacherous waters for Chavismo that could lead to renewed sanctions — both personally and on a government level — more isolation and internal disagreement that could upend Maduro’s artificial economic stability. Not for nothing did the bling-encrusted leader call for a “new consensus” within the country in his post-election remarks. And if the 11 years in power of this bus-driver-turned-dictator have taught us anything, it is not to underestimate his survival capacity. The next step in this story will depend on how the government and the opposition play their new hands.

For those still doubting last night’s results, let’s not forget this wasn’t your typical election even before Sunday’s blunders. The regime went to extreme lengths to tilt the balance of the vote in its favor, banning candidates (Machado, most notably,) allowing only a tiny margin of the Venezuelan diaspora to vote abroad, suppressing the presence of observers and even barring the entrance of regional leaders seeking to assess the vote in the country. That’s enough to be considered an unfair election in any democracy.

The spectacle of millions of courageous and hopeful Venezuelans at home and abroad trying to change their country’s fate peacefully should be a source of global inspiration. In this year of elections, it should mobilize democracies to summon the collective ingenuity and resolve needed to defend the primacy of ballots over truncheons and bullets. Venezuela’s democratic neighbors must stand up, and the rest of the free world must support them.

JP Spinetto is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin American business, economic affairs and politics. He was previously Bloomberg News’ managing editor for economics and government in the region.

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Today in History: July 31, Phelps sets Olympic medal record

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Today is Wednesday, July 31, the 213th day of 2024. There are 153 days left in the year.

Today in history:

On July 31, 2012, at the Summer Olympics in London, swimmer Michael Phelps won his 19th Olympic medal, becoming the most decorated Olympian of all time. (He would finish his career with 28 total Olympic medals, 23 of them gold.)

Also on this date:

In 1715, a fleet of Spanish ships carrying gold, silver and jewelry sank during a hurricane off the east Florida coast; of some 2,500 crew members, more than 1,000 died.

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Today in History: July 26, Americans with Disabilities Act signed into law

In 1777, the 19-year-old Marquis de Lafayette received a commission as major general in the Continental Army by the Second Continental Congress.

In 1919, Germany’s Weimar Constitution was adopted by the republic’s National Assembly.

In 1945, Pierre Laval, premier of the pro-Nazi Vichy government in France, surrendered to U.S. authorities in Austria; he was turned over to France, which later tried and executed him.

In 1957, the Distant Early Warning Line, a system of radar stations designed to detect Soviet bombers approaching North America, went into operation.

In 1964, the U.S. lunar probe Ranger 7 took the first close-up images of the moon’s surface.

In 1971, Apollo 15 crew members David Scott and James Irwin became the first astronauts to use a lunar rover on the surface of the moon.

In 1972, vice-presidential candidate Thomas Eagleton withdrew from the Democratic ticket with George McGovern following disclosures that Eagleton had received electroshock therapy to treat clinical depression.

In 1991, President George H.W. Bush and Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) in Moscow.

In 2020, a federal appeals court overturned the death sentence of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, saying the judge who oversaw the case didn’t adequately screen jurors for potential biases. (The Supreme Court later reimposed the sentence.)

Today’s Birthdays:

Jazz composer-musician Kenny Burrell is 93.
Actor Geraldine Chaplin is 80.
Former movie studio executive Sherry Lansing is 80.
Singer Gary Lewis is 78.
International Tennis Hall of Famer Evonne Goolagong Cawley is 73.
Actor Michael Biehn is 68.
Rock singer-musician Daniel Ash (Love and Rockets) is 67.
Entrepreneur Mark Cuban is 66.
Rock musician Bill Berry (R.E.M.) is 66.
Jazz guitarist Stanley Jordan is 65.
Actor Wesley Snipes is 62.
Musician Fatboy Slim is 61.
Author J.K. Rowling is 59.
Actor Dean Cain is 58.
Actor Jim True-Frost is 58.
Actor Ben Chaplin is 55.
Actor Eve Best is 53.
Football Hall of Famer Jonathan Ogden is 50.
Country singer-musician Zac Brown is 46.
Actor-producer-writer B.J. Novak is 45.
Football Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware is 42.
NHL center Evgeni Malkin is 38.
NASCAR driver Kyle Larson is 32.
Hip-hop artist Lil Uzi Vert is 29.
Actor Rico Rodriguez (TV: “Modern Family”) is 26.

Saints get close win to start Iowa series

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Tuesday night’s road game in Des Moines saw Jair Camargo back in the spotlight, hitting two home runs that helped the Saints win 5-4.

The Saints started the scoring with a two-run single from DaShawn Keirsey Jr. bringing home Eduard Julien and Yunior Severino.

The I-Cubs had taken the lead 3-2 in the fifth, but a solo home run from Camargo tied the game, and a solo homer from Patrick Winkel gave the Saints the lead.

Camargo’s second solo homer was in the eighth inning, and the I-Cubs answered with a run in the ninth, but it wasn’t enough.

The two teams play again in Des Moines at 12:08 p.m. Wednesday.

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Dayne St. Clair’s 16 saves leads Loons to 1-0 win over Necaxa

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Dayne St. Clair did everything he could to will undermanned Minnesota United into the knockout rounds of the Leagues Cup at Allianz Field on Tuesday.

The Loons goalkeeper’s hands were battered as he made 16 saves as 10-men Minnesota beat Necaxa 1-0. After facing a deluge of 21 corner kicks, the final whistle allowed teammates to mob the clear man of the match.

St. Clair broke a club record for most saves in a match in all competitions, besting Vito Mannone’s 11 saves in an MLS match in 2019. St. Clair set a Leagues Cup record and would have tied the MLS’ top total.

The Loons had a must-win scenario Tuesday to stay alive in West Group 6 after its 2-0 loss to Seattle on Friday. Necaxa will play at Seattle in the final group match on Sunday.

Loons head coach Eric Ramsay has been willing to go “experimental” with starting lineups in Leagues Cup. Part of that is lack of ingredients (players) at his disposal, but the concoction he came up with in the lab blew up Tuesday.

Ramsay started two rookie center backs — Hugo Bacharach and Morris Duggan — and Bacharach was beat in a race in on goal by Necaxa attacker Monreal Ricardo in the 20th minute. A desperate Bacharach took out the legs of Ricardo and was issued a red card just outside the 18-yard box.

When the Loons went down to 10 men, they were fortunate to be up 1-0 thanks to a penalty kick goal from Robin Lod in the 10th minute.

To earn the PK, Loic Mesanvi was sideswiped by Necaxa’s Arce Fernando in the penalty area. Bongi Hlongwane’s back-heel pass helped spring Mesanvi into a threatening space.

Ramsay quickly adjusted to the red card, bringing on central midfielder Alejandro Bran for attacker Bongi Hlongwane and shifting Carlos Harvey back to the center back role he has played in recent weeks.

Necaxa had the better chances after the red card with four shots on goal to close out the first half, but goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair denied all of them. He lunged to his right for a sprawling save in the 41st minute and was springy enough to react to a deflection and make a save in the 46th minute.

The Loons had an argument to make that Necaxa deserved a red card before Bacharach was sent off when Cambindo Diber took out St. Clair’s legs when playing out of the back in the 16th minute.

The noise level at Allianz Field, outside of reaction to play on the field, was subdued compared to MLS games. Supporters groups in the Wonderwall on the south end were not leading chants, banging drums or waiving flags — a clear statement to how MLS has diminished U.S. Open Cup in favor of Leagues Cup.

Briefly

Loons forward Tani Oluwaseyi appeared to injure his right leg during the 55th minute. … New Zealand men’s soccer team was knocked out of the Summer Olympics on Tuesday, meaning Kiwi center back Michael Boxall will leave France and soon rejoin MNUFC. … Midfielder Hassani Dotson, who was suspended for Tuesday’s match for the red card he received in Seattle on Friday, received an additional one-match suspension by Leagues Cup.