Do independent voters support Harris or Trump? New poll finds big shift from month ago

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Brendan Rascius | (TNS) McClatchy Washington Bureau

Former President Donald Trump now leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 3 points among independents, marking a dramatic shift from one month ago, according to new polling.

In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, 49% of independent respondents said they are supporting or leaning toward Trump, while 46% said the same for Harris. Three percent said they’re backing a third-party candidate, and 2% said they’re undecided.

In an early August poll, Harris held an 11-point lead over Trump with independents — with 48% support versus his 37%.

In that poll, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was backed by 12% of independents and other third party candidates received 2% support.

Kennedy has since suspended his campaign, endorsed Trump and urged his supporters to back him.

Political experts previously told McClatchy News that his endorsement “could potentially boost support for Trump.”

In August, Harris likely also benefited from a honeymoon period with voters, having only been in the presidential race since mid-July, experts previously said.

The latest poll, conducted between Sept. 3 and 5, sampled 1,529 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, meaning Trump’s lead is within this margin.

Other findings in the poll:

Trump has similarly seen a significant increase in his support among Latino voters since August, erasing Harris’ lead, according to the poll.

In the latest poll, 51% of Latino voters said they support the former president, while 47% said the same for Harris.

In August, Harris held a 15-point edge over Trump with Latino voters.

The latest poll also found there is a large gender gap in the support for the two candidates, with Harris leading among women by 15 points and Trump ahead among men by 12 points.

Trump is also leading with white voters, with 50% versus Harris’ 47%. However, Harris is receiving a larger share of support from this demographic than her Democratic predecessors. Biden garnered 41% support among white voters in 2020, and Hillary Clinton received 37% in 2016.

Among all registered voters, Harris is leading Trump by one point — 49% to his 48% — narrowing the race from August, when the vice president was up 48% to Trump’s 45%.

And among those who said they definitely plan on voting, Harris outpaced Trump by three points, 51% compared with his 48%.

The poll comes just hours before the two candidates are set to take part in their first — and potentially only — televised presidential debate. The debate, hosted by ABC News, will air live at 9 p.m. E.T.

The majority of respondents, 70%, said they plan to watch most or all of the debate, and 30% of registered voters said it will be an important factor in determining how they vote.

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©2024 McClatchy Washington Bureau. Visit at mcclatchydc.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

As Trump and Harris spar, ABC’s moderators grapple with conducting a debate in a polarized country

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By DAVID BAUDER Associated Press

The ABC News moderators were great. No, actually they were a “disgraceful failure.” They cut off Kamala Harris too much. No, actually they corrected Donald Trump unfairly.

Such is the contentious tenor of the times in 2024’s campaign season. And so it went Tuesday night at Trump’s and Harris’ first — and possibly only — debate.

In an illustration of how difficult it is to conduct a presidential debate in a polarized country, ABC News moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis fact-checked and corrected Trump four times Tuesday and were attacked angrily by the former president and his supporters. The moderators asked about economic policy, the war in Ukraine, abortion, the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol insurrection and changes in Harris’ stances since her 2020 presidential run.

It was the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, although Fox News Channel has proposed another one. Trump, following Tuesday’s session, said he’d be “less inclined to because we had a great night.” On social media, Trump echoed many of his supporters in criticizing ABC, saying the debate was essentially three on one.

In the end, Trump logged 43 minutes and 3 seconds of time talking, while Harris had 37 minutes and 41 seconds, according to a count by The New York Times.

Opinions on the coverage were a political litmus test

The debate’s stakes were high to begin with, not only because of the impending election itself but because the last presidential debate in June — between Trump and sitting President Joe Biden, whose performance was roundly panned — uncorked a series of events that ended several weeks later with Biden’s withdrawal from the race and Harris stepping in.

Opinions on how ABC handled the latest debate Tuesday were, in a large sense, a Rorschach test on how supporters of both sides felt about how it went. MSNBC commentator Chris Hayes sent a message on X that the ABC moderators were doing an “excellent” job — only to be answered by conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, who said, “this is how you know they’re complete s—-.”

While CNN chose not to correct any misstatements by the candidates during Trump’s debate with Biden in June, ABC instead challenged statements that Trump made about abortion, immigration, the 2020 election and violent crime.

During a discussion of abortion, Trump made his oft-repeated claim that Democrats supported killing babies after they were born. Said Davis: “There is no state in the country where it is legal to kill a baby after it was born.”

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Muir pointed out that Trump, after years of publicly not admitting to his defeat to Biden in the 2020 election, had recently on three separate occasions conceded he had lost. Trump replied that he had been sarcastic in making those recent statements.

“I didn’t detect the sarcasm,” Muir said.

After suggesting that crime had gone up during the Biden administration, Muir pointed out that violent crime had gone down during that period, prompting an argument with the former president. ABC also noted, after Trump had repeated a debunked report that immigrants were killing and eating pets in Ohio, that there had been no evidence that had happened.

ABC moderators did not correct any statements made by Harris.

“Could they have done more? Yes,” said Angie Drodnic Holan, director of the international fact-checking network at the Poynter Institute, said in an interview. “Did they do enough? I would say yes. The alternative was none.”

Toward the end of the debate, CNN fact checker Daniel Dale said on social media that “Trump has been staggeringly dishonest and Harris has been overwhelmingly (though not entirely) factual.”

Both candidates didn’t answer some questions

As is often the case in debates, the moderators often saw specific questions go unanswered. Harris, for example, was asked to address Trump’s criticism that the U.S. Justice Department has been weaponized against him. She did not. She also skirted questions about changes to some of her past positions on issues. Muir twice asked Trump whether he wanted Ukraine to win its war against Russia, and he didn’t answer.

The split screen views of both candidates onscreen told different stories. Trump often looked angry or smiled at some of Harris’ statements, while avoiding eye contact with his opponent. Harris looked over at her opponents several times, often in bemusement, sometimes in open amusement, sometimes shaking her head.

Online anger toward how ABC handled the evening began while the debate was ongoing, and quickly became a talking point.

“These moderators are a disgraceful failure, and this is one of the most biased, unfair debates I have ever seen,” conservative commentator Megyn Kelly posted on X. “Shame on ABC.”

Answering online critics who complained ABC stacked the deck in Harris’ favor, Atlantic writer James Surowiecki wrote that “the way they ‘rigged’ the debate is by letting (Trump) hang himself with his own stream of consciousness rambles.”

“It was like a 4Chan post come to life,” CNN’s Jake Tapper said.

On Fox News Channel, anchor Martha MacCallum said after the debate that Harris “was never really held to the fire.” Commentator Brit Hume agreed with her, but said something else was at play.

“Make no mistake about it,” Hume said. “Trump had a bad night.”

Kamala Harris, gun owner, talks firearms at debate

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By CHRIS MEGERIAN Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris surprised some viewers during her debate with Donald Trump when she said that she’s a gun owner, raising the fact to counter her Republican opponent’s accusation that she wants to confiscate firearms.

“Tim Walz and I are both gun owners,” Harris said, referencing her running mate. “We’re not taking anybody’s guns away.”

Harris previously talked about owning a gun in 2019 during her first campaign for president.

“I am a gun owner, and I own a gun for probably the reason a lot of people do — for personal safety,” Harris previously said. “I was a career prosecutor.”

At the time, her campaign said that Harris purchased a handgun years earlier and kept it locked up. A spokesperson did not provide any additional details when asked on Tuesday.

The exchange about gun ownership came as Trump tried to paint Harris, who started her political career as a San Francisco district attorney, as radically liberal.

“She is destroying our country,” he said. “She has a plan to defund the police. She has a plan to confiscate everybody’s gun. She has a plan to not allow fracking in Pennsylvania or anywhere else.”

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Harris rebutted each of Trump’s allegations, adding that he should “stop with the continuous lying about this stuff.”

Walz, the Minnesota governor, has also talked about gun ownership and boasted of his marksmanship.

Republicans frequently describe Democrats as a threat to the Second Amendment, while Democrats describe their proposals as common sense measures to protect public safety.

Harris has called for implementing universal background checks and expanding red flag laws to take away guns from people who are deemed dangerous or unstable. She also wants to ban so-called assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.

Will the Emmys be the ‘Shogun’ show? What to expect on Sunday

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By ANDREW DALTON

The Emmys have become the “Shogun” show well before Sunday’s ceremony even begins.

This image released by FX shows Anna Sawai as Toda Mariko in a scene from “Shogun.” (Katie Yu/FX via AP)

The FX series about political machinations among local lords, Portuguese traders and a wandering British sailor is already the winningest series for a single season in Emmy history after taking 14 trophies at the precursor Creative Arts ceremony on Sunday.

The main Emmys show could not only extend its lead — it could bring historic wins for its lead actors.

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Here’s a look at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards, which will be held Sunday night at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles, hosted by Dan and Eugene Levy and airing on ABC.

‘Shogun’ steamrolls into Sunday

“Shogun” could win six more trophies, including best drama series, best actor in a drama for Hiroyuki Sanada and best actress in a drama for Anna Sawai.

Though if it fails to win in the biggest categories, “Shogun” may end up feeling like a sports team that has a record-setting regular season then tanks in the playoffs.

From left, Brian J. Armstrong, Benjamin Cook, James Gallivan, John Creed, Mark Hailstone, Ken Cain, Melissa Muil, Matt Salib and Sanaa Kelley pose with the award for Outstanding Sound Editing for a Comedy or Drama Series (One-Hour) for Shogun during night two of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards on Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP)

Sanada, 63, is a revered veteran Japanese actor whose face may be familiar to most American viewers for films including “The Last Samurai” and “John Wick: Chapter 4” even if his name is not. He’s favored by most experts to win best actor over more widely known performers including Gary Oldman, Donald Glover and Idris Elba.

Sawai, 32, even less known in the U.S., is in the same situation, favored over famous names like Jennifer Aniston — who had been considered a frontrunner for “The Morning Show” before the “Shogun” wave took shape — and her castmate Reese Witherspoon.

Either Sanada or Sawai would be the first Japanese actor to win an Emmy.

This image released by FX shows Cosmo Jarvis, left, and Nestor Carbonell in a scene from “Shogun.” (Katie Yu/FX via AP)

When “Shogun” led all Emmy nominees with 25 at the announcements in July, many — including The Associated Press — suggested it was at least in part because of the absence of last year’s HBO big three: “Succession,” “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us.”

But its dominance at the Creative Arts ceremony put it in its own class. It wasn’t just the number, it was the percentage. It won 14 of the 16 awards it was up for, getting snubbed only in two music categories. It won for its costumes, its hairdressing, its cinematography, its costumes, its casting and many more categories on its way to breaking the record of 13 Emmys set by the 2008 limited series “John Adams.”

When Néstor Carbonell won best guest actor in a drama and thanked the crew, he gleefully declared, “You’re all here!” because the crowd was so full of people who worked on the show.

Nestor Carbonell with the award for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series for Shogun attends night two of the Creative Arts Emmy Awards on Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Richard Shotwell/Invision/AP)

Possibly getting a whiff of the golden possibilities, the makers of “Shogun” shifted from the limited series to the more prestigious drama category in May at the expense of competitors like “The Crown,” which might have been getting a coronation for its final season. The Netflix series is considered the only significant competitor for “Shogun.” Elizabeth Debicki is very likely to win for playing Princess Diana, and Imelda Staunton could take the best actress trophy from Sawai for playing Queen Elizabeth.

But it would truly be a stunner if “The Crown” won its second best drama series Emmy this year.

This image released by Netflix shows Elizabeth Debicki as Diana, Princess of Wales, in a scene from “The Crown.” (Keith Bernstein/Netflix via AP)

‘The Bear’ plays second banana

“The Bear,” which led all comedies with 23 nominations, could well have been the darling of these Emmys after tying “Succession” with six wins at the previous ceremony, held in January because of Hollywood’s strikes.

Its placement in the comedy category — mocked by some for a show with more drama than many dramas — will be a major perk this time amid the “Shogun” dominance.

This image released by Netflix shows Imelda Staunton as Queen Elizabeth in “The Crown.” (Alex Bailey/Netflix via AP)

The FX show’s second season — which this year’s nominations are for — was even more acclaimed than its first, and even though its recently released third season was received more coolly, it could easily see repeat acting wins for Jeremy Allen White, Ebon Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri, who will face somewhat stiffer competition after a shift from supporting actress to lead.

Stars in the periphery

While “Shogun” and “The Bear” may lack household names, there are truly major stars who are potential winners at these Emmys, several of them Oscar winners.

Two-time Academy Award winner Jodie Foster is a good bet to win her first Emmy as best actress in a limited or anthology series or TV movie for playing a hot-tempered cold-weather cop in “True Detective: Night Country.”

This image released by HBO shows Kali Reis, right, and Jodie Foster in a scene from “True Detective: Night Country.” (HBO via AP)

Meryl Streep could end up with more Emmys than Oscars if she wins her fourth for best supporting actress in a comedy for “Only Murders in the Building.”

Reigning best supporting actor Oscar winner Robert Downey Jr. could also become a first-time Emmy winner. He’s up for best supporting actor in the limited series category for playing five different roles in “The Sympathizer.”

Academy Award winners Gary Oldman and Brie Larson are also among the nominees, and one Oscar winner, Jamie Lee Curtis, already won an Emmy for her guest role on “The Bear.”

This image released by Apple TV+ shows Gary Oldman in a scene from “Slow Horses.” (Jack English/Apple TV+ via AP)

Old Emmy constants will also be featured. Aniston is a 10-time Emmy nominee who only won once during her time on “Friends.”

Jon Hamm is up for acting Emmys for both “The Morning Show” and “Fargo.” He’s an 18-time nominee who also only won once, for “Mad Men.”

Father and son hosts

An ABC awards show not hosted by Jimmy Kimmel? It’s about to happen. And the father-son duo of Eugene and Dan Levy make plenty of sense as replacements.

FILE – Eugene Levy, left, and Dan Levy appear at the 71st Primetime Emmy Awards in Los Angeles on Sept. 22, 2019. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP, File)

The four-time Oscar host Kimmel emceed the last time ABC aired the show in 2020, and those “Pandemmies” were among the only successful awards shows of the pandemic era. The novelty of an empty theater, show’s casts gathered together in remote locations, and a hazmat-suited representative comically handing out the trophies somehow worked.

The stars of that show were the cast members of the Levys’ show “Schitt’s Creek,” which swept the comedy categories including wins for best actor for Eugene Levy and best supporting actor for Dan.

The telecast still rotates between the four broadcast networks, even as they consistently fail to get nominations, much less wins, in the biggest categories. ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” and NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” have been the lone broadcast bright spots in recent years.