Napheesa Collier #24 of the Minnesota Lynx drives to the rim against DiJonai Carrington #21 of the Connecticut Sun during the second half of Game Three of the WNBA playoff semifinals at Mohegan Sun Arena on Oct. 4, 2024 in Uncasville, Connecticut. The Lynx defeated the Sun 90-81. (Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch delivered an apt scouting report of the WNBA Finals matchup between the Lynx and Liberty, which opens Thursday in New York:
“It looks like the two best teams in the league are going at it,” Finch said. “The two most complete teams in the league are going at it. Should be interesting.”
That was true all season. The Liberty earned the No. 1 seed with a 32-8 mark. Minnesota was No. 2 with a 30-10 record For the year, New York touted the WNBA’s No. 1 offense (107 points per 100 possessions), while Minnesota had the second-best defense (94.8).
Since the nearly month-long Olympics break ended in mid-August, both teams were excellent in all facets.
Minnesota had the best record post-break (13-2), while the Liberty were second (11-4). New York sported the best net rating in that span, outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per 100 possessions, while Minnesota was No. 2 (8.9).
Both teams sported top-four offenses and defenses post-break and have been impressive throughout this postseason, and they each possess two all-world forwards: Breanna Stewart for New York and Napheesa Collier for Minnesota.
KEY STATS (season-long numbers)
ASSIST PCT.
Minnesota: 76.4 (1st)
New York: 74.1 (3rd)
REBOUNDING PCT.
New York: 52.5 (1st)
Minnesota: 48.3 (10th)
Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty heads for the net as A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces defends in the second half of Game Two of the WNBA Semifinals at Barclays Center on Oct. 01, 2024 in New York City. The New York Liberty defeated the Las Vegas Aces 88-84. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
SEASON MATCHUPS
May 25 in Minnesota: Minnesota 84, New York 67
The Lynx jumped out to a 14-point lead through one quarter and were largely in control from there. It was a complete showing for the Lynx, who hit 14 triples and assisted on 26 of their 32 makes. Four starters scored 14-plus points.
Stewart had 20 points for New York, but the Liberty were inefficient as a whole, shooting 38% from the field and a putrid 7 for 29 from deep.
Minnesota outscored New York by 27 points in the 26 minutes Liberty all-star and Olympian guard Sabrina Ionescu was on the floor.
June 25 in New York: Minnesota 94, New York 89
Minnesota has already beaten New York in a title bout this season, as the Lynx edged New York for the Commissioner’s Cup at the end of June. Minnesota was outrebounded 43-25 but overcame that deficit via a stellar shooting performance — the Lynx were 14 for 29 from 3-point range — and by forcing turnovers.
New York tallied 20 giveaways in that contest. Bridget Carleton led Minnesota with 23 points on the strength of six triples, as she and Collier (21 points) just outmatched Ionescu (23) and Stewart (24). Notably, Minnesota held Liberty center Jonquel Jones to just three points on 0-for-3 shooting.
July 2 in New York: New York 76, Minnesota 67
This was a slugfest, as neither offense was able to get going. The Lynx shot 39% from the floor and 30% from deep, while New York shot 37% from the field and just 22% from deep.
But the difference in the game came on the offensive glass, as the Liberty had 10 offensive boards. Still, Minnesota led by one heading into the final frame but scored just eight points in the fourth quarter.
Sept. 15 in New York: Minnesota 88, New York 79
Minnesota jumped out early and never looked back, building a lead as large as 26 points before New York closed strong to make the score look closer than the contest actually was.
The Lynx shot 53% from the field and 50% from deep. Carleton was again a sharpshooter for Minnesota — burying five triples — while Collier had 18 points and 13 rebounds.
The Liberty got 38 points from Stewart, but New York’s remaining players shot just 36% from the floor and 23% from distance. Ionescu was just 4 for 21 from the field.
TAKEAWAYS
Perhaps great defense bests great offense, because Minnesota flustered New York’s offense significantly more than anyone else during the season. The Liberty’s pace and efficiency dipped precipitously against Minnesota, and New York’s players outside of Stewart struggled to produce. Even Stewart’s offense did not come easy, as the Liberty failed to establish any type of offensive rhythm.
Minnesota did that to most opponents throughout the season, but to do it against an opponent as talented as New York was especially impressive.
PREDICTION: Lynx in 4 games
WNBA FINALS SCHEDULE
Best-of-5 series
Game 1: Lynx at New York, 7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN
Game 2: Lynx at New York, 2 p.m. Sunday, ABC
Game 3: New York at Lynx, 7 p.m. Wednesday, ESPN
Game 4*: New York at Lynx, 7 p.m. Friday, ESPN
Game 5*: Lynx at New York, 7 p.m. Sunday, ESPN
*If necessary
New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx to meet for WNBA championship
Lynx advance to WNBA Finals by crushing Connecticut in Game 5
It’s all on the line for the Lynx in Game 5 of the semifinals. Here’s what to know.
Jace Frederick: This is the time for Napheesa Collier to have another moment
After Lynx lose to Sun, it’s down to Game 5 in WNBA semifinals
