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The budget resolution that narrowly passed the House last week represents a significant victory for Republican Speaker Mike Johnson and for the president’s fiscal agenda. Whether it’s good for the country is another matter.

As it stands, the House budget plan would allow for up to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next 10 years and calls for perhaps $2 trillion in spending reductions (specifics TBD). The bill now moves to the Senate, which wants even steeper tax cuts, and will be subject to further favor-trading, arm-twisting and (perhaps) the whims of the White House. Whatever legislation results from this process is, on current trends, likely to add trillions in new deficit spending.

As these talks continue, the crucial question — how much the government can prudently borrow — will barely be mentioned. In what’s now standard practice, Republicans aim to move their tax-and-spending package through the Senate using reconciliation, an arcane procedure that was once intended to help restrain fiscal excess but which has long been twisted to facilitate it. Serial abuse of this process has already delivered actual and prospective budget deficits of 6% of gross domestic product with steadily mounting debt, even with the economy at full employment.

The core of the Republican plan — which reconciliation would expedite by making it filibuster-proof — is the proposed extension of most of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which was itself passed through reconciliation. Congress made the law comply with a rule forbidding higher borrowing beyond the 10-year planning window by scheduling most of its tax cuts to expire at the end of this year. Instead, they’ll almost certainly be extended. The new package will doubtless rely on the very same gimmickry — extend, expire, extend, repeat.

Not content with renewing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the administration and its enablers have many other tax cuts in mind as well. The White House wants to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%, raise the $10,000 limit on the deduction for state and local taxes, and stop taxing tips and Social Security benefits. High tariffs (taxes by another name) could help to offset the cost of such changes, as the administration insists, but only by making the tax system as a whole much more regressive, burdensome and anti-growth.

In short, the current Republican majority, which talks a lot about controlling government spending, is on a path to do quite the opposite. Total debt held by the public is already on course to rise from $30 trillion this year to $52 trillion, or nearly 120% of GDP, by 2035. That’s assuming lawmakers let the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire as promised and no new economic setbacks arise between now and then. At the moment, Congress has more or less agreed that the best-case scenario will be much, much worse.

At some point, financial markets are going to say that enough is enough. The budget trajectory isn’t investors’ only concern: Geopolitical instability, steeply priced assets and challenges to the Federal Reserve’s operational independence are all in play. Borrowing costs might rise for any or all of these reasons, shifting the fiscal outlook from bad to irretrievable. Another round of this all-too-familiar Capitol Hill ritual will hardly help.

— The Bloomberg Opinion Editorial Board

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President Donald Trump would like to offer migrants who want to work in the U.S. a “gold card,” akin to a green card, with one significant difference: the price tag. A gold card would cost $5 million, compared to government fees of $235 for a green card.

It’s a good idea, both from the standpoint of government revenue and for wealthy prospective immigrants. But the U.S. would have to be careful not to foreclose other, more affordable ways for people to come and work and live in the country.

Trump estimates that the U.S. could sell 1 million gold cards, which would give holders quick residency rights and a path to citizenship, family members included. That would bring in $5 trillion. He also suggests that many companies would buy them to bring in talented workers. Even if his estimates are overly optimistic, there is some real money on the table.

Under current law, there already is a path to residency and citizenship by investing in the U.S. through the EB-5 program. After expenses are accounted for, and depending on details, the cost is about $1 million. That’s an 80% discount on a gold card, and meanwhile the government gets the benefit of new jobs added to the U.S. economy.

The Trump proposal is intended to replace this program, which has been criticized for fraud and abuse. Charging a flat fee may be better than requiring a certain amount of investment, since there is no ambiguity as to whether the person has paid up and no incentive to concoct dubious job-creation schemes. The gold card may involve some of the same problems as the EB-5 program in terms of being an easy way for spies and potential terrorists to enter America, but it’s unlikely to make them worse, and at least the price would be higher.

Economists, including the late Nobel laureate Gary Becker, have long entertained the idea of selling the right to immigrate. It would help the U.S. meet its fiscal obligations while offering residency to those who value it most, at least insofar as that concept is defined in monetary terms.

As usual, however, the devil is in the details. There is a good chance Trump’s proposal could work out well — and a chance it could severely damage the nation.

One worry is selection effects. The $5 million fee means the program would skew toward older people, and would probably also skew somewhat male. Neither of those biases is a problem if other methods of establishing residence remain robust. But will they?

With a gold card program, the government would have a financial incentive to limit other ways of establishing residency. You can get an O-1 visa or an H-1B, for instance, if you have a strong record of accomplishment or an interested employer with a proper priority and perhaps some luck. Neither of those options cost anything close to $5 million, even with legal fees. Not everyone with a spare $5 million can get an O-1, or a proper job offer, but still: At the margin, these options would compete with each other.

These other options are well-suited for getting young, talented people into the U.S., which is precisely the weakness of the gold card proposal. Ideally the U.S. would expand these other paths, but with a gold card program they might be narrowed so the government can reap more revenue from sales of gold cards.

A young person entering the U.S. on an O-1 — which is for “the individual who possesses extraordinary ability in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics” — may well start a company or do groundbreaking research. But the fiscal payoff from such successes can be decades down the road. The $5 million, in contrast, would be deposited in government coffers immediately.

The best-case scenario is that the U.S. offers a gold card and expands (or at least does not limit) cheaper ways of getting into the country. Replacing the $1 million investment with a $5 million flat fee, on its own, seems like an upgrade. A lot of people who can afford $1 million can also afford $5 million. And due to America’s success in technology generally and AI in particular, the value of living and working in this country has risen considerably. It is realistic for an immigration fee to reflect that.

The less favorable scenario is that the federal government gradually eliminates or curtails cheaper options for establishing residency. America’s immigrant population would then skew older and wealthier. That may work out fine for the short run, but it is far from ideal for the longer term. In effect, a gold card program would serve as a form of deficit spending, favoring the current period over the more distant future.

In short, the concept of a gold card idea is a good one. But a lot depends on the execution.

Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, a professor of economics at George Mason University and host of the Marginal Revolution blog.

 

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