America is having a collective freakout about jobs — specifically, that soon AI will do everything and leave everyone unemployable. This concern is not necessarily misplaced, but it is better understood as part of a larger worry: that one of the country’s most critical resources, human capital, is eroding.

A large, diverse and highly skilled labor force is what made the U.S. an economic powerhouse. Now both the stock and value of its human capital is degrading, and almost no one is doing anything to stop it.

The biggest threat to America’s human capital is fewer humans. As the population ages and migration declines, the size of the labor force is shrinking. More broadly, a shrinking population means fewer workers and consumers — and, in many rich countries, more young people working to pay for the costs of older workers’ retirements and the government’s debts. This is a big threat to economic prosperity that the U.S. has usually mitigated though immigration, which is not a likely solution this time.

There is another way a country can get by with a shrinking population: if its workers become more productive. If a young worker is so smart and skilled he can produce the output of three workers, then an aging workforce is less of a problem. In the 20th century, as technology made workers more efficient and people became more educated, human capital in America became much more valuable.

There are some preliminary signs that productivity is rising now. After years of middling numbers, labor productivity increased in 2025. But these encouraging numbers aren’t providing much comfort, because people are worried that AI will be so productive that the need for human workers will decline anyway. If technology displaces workers, then the value of their human capital can be wiped out entirely.

Again, I am not saying this isn’t a valid worry — only that it is as old as time.

In the past, technology not only made labor more productive, it also increased the demand for labor. Some jobs were lost, but new and better ones were created; wages and employment went up. Some people who work in technology argue that this time is different, but it is way too early to know for sure.

First, widespread AI-induced job loss, or even a lack of hiring, can’t yet be seen in the data. Many industries that use AI are the same ones doing the hiring. It is true there is less job growth overall, but much of that can be explained by cyclical changes to the economy and a fall in migration.

Second, a lot of the speculation about the end of jobs is coming from people who’ve never worked in the jobs they presume will disappear. You never know what a job entails and what it takes to be good at it unless you’ve done it. A wealth manager, for example — one of the jobs said to be on borrowed time — doesn’t just write reports and pick stocks. They (the successful ones, at least) cultivate relationships and function almost as therapists. Those softer skills may become even more valuable as AI becomes more prevalent, freeing up time to spend on deeper relationships and more clients. In that case, AI could make human labor more valuable, and people will still have jobs.

As in the past, the most important question may be how we manage the transition to a new technology, which is often long and difficult. A mismatch between skills and technology could mean a short-term decline in human capital, even if productivity numbers increase.

Historically, the mismatch was addressed through education, which improved with each generation, enabling workers to work with new innovation. But education may no longer be serving the same purpose — as more of the population goes to college, it may be reaching a point of diminishing returns. Even more concerning is that educational standards are weakening at both the secondary and post-secondary level. Too many graduates have weak critical thinking skills and are facing technology that is getting smarter faster than they are.

Paul Krugman famously said, “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything.” That “almost” is crucial: Even if U.S. productivity increases, if its human capital degrades, it will be in trouble. Even high productivity numbers may not be enough to pay the government’s debts, and there will be many people unhappily and under-employed.

That scenario is not inevitable. AI cannot by itself improve America’s economic and demographic growth. That will require better education that trains students to think rigorously, as well as immigration that prioritizes highly skilled migrants. What’s required, in other words, is a strategy to improve our human capital.

Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”

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The gravest power entrusted to any American president is the authority to command the armed forces. With that authority comes a constitutional tension that has defined our republic since its founding: Congress declares war. The president conducts it.

When an administration moves toward open conflict — deploying forces, launching sustained strikes or widening military engagement — without explicit congressional authorization, it raises serious constitutional and strategic concerns. The framers did not divide war powers casually. They feared concentrating too much authority in one individual, especially in moments charged with fear, urgency and national emotion.

Article I gives Congress the power to declare war. Article II makes the president commander in chief. The design was deliberate: debate before bloodshed. Shared accountability before sustained conflict.

History, however, shows that presidents of both parties have tested and stretched that boundary.

Harry Truman committed U.S. forces to Korea under a United Nations mandate without a formal declaration of war. Lyndon B. Johnson relied on the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution to escalate in Vietnam, a broad congressional authorization that later haunted the nation. George W. Bush secured congressional approval for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Barack Obama conducted extended operations in Libya under NATO authority without a specific new war authorization. Presidents of both parties have used the 2001 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force to justify actions far removed in time and geography from their original purpose.

In other words, this is not a partisan issue. It is an institutional one.

Supporters of swift executive action argue that modern threats move too quickly for prolonged congressional deliberation. Missiles travel faster than legislation. Cyber warfare requires an immediate response. Terror networks do not issue formal declarations. There is truth in that.

But there is also danger in normalization.

When presidents increasingly rely on executive authority to initiate or expand military conflict without clear, updated authorization from Congress, the threshold for war quietly lowers. Debate becomes optional. Public accountability becomes diluted. And the American people, whose sons and daughters serve, are left reacting rather than participating through their elected representatives.

The War Powers Resolution of 1973 attempted to rebalance this equation, requiring notification to Congress and limiting unauthorized deployments to 60 days without approval. Yet administrations from both parties have viewed it as constitutionally questionable or practically flexible.

The trajectory matters.

A republic drifts when precedent replaces principle. If one president expands executive war authority, the next inherits and often builds upon it. Over time, what was once extraordinary becomes routine.

This is not an argument for paralysis in the face of threat. The president must retain the ability to defend the nation swiftly. However, sustained conflict, particularly against state actors, across multiple theaters and with foreseeable escalation, demands more than executive interpretation. It demands congressional clarity.

The cost of war is measured not only in treasure, but in trust.

When the constitutional balance erodes, so does public confidence. And when confidence erodes, unity fractures precisely when it is most needed.

The question is not whether a president can act. The question is whether we are preserving the constitutional guardrails that ensure such action reflects the will of the nation, not merely the will of one office.

In matters of war, speed is sometimes necessary.

But shared authority is always essential.

— The Baltimore Sun

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The St. Paul Public Schools board will interview and select a candidate to fill a vacant board seat on Tuesday.

Five candidates will be interviewed to fill former board member Jim Vue’s seat on the seven-member board. Vue, who had served on the board since 2020, resigned effective Feb. 17. The new member will start on April 10.

Tuesday’s meeting is open to the public and will be held at 6 p.m. at the district’s administration building at 360 Colborne St. in St. Paul. It also will be livestreamed at spps.eduvision.tv/LiveSched.aspx.

The selected candidate will serve the remainder of Vue’s term as an interim board member through January 2027. The seat will be on the ballot in November and the new member will hold it for a four-year term. In order to be eligible for the interim position, applicants interviewing Tuesday must indicate they have no plans to run for a seat in the November election.

Board Chair Uriah Ward and board member Halla Henderson are the only board members whose terms end in December. Other current board members’ terms go through 2028.

The board, and SPPS administrators, work to establish a budget for the district. In June, the board unanimously approved a $1 billion budget for the 2025-26 school year. The board will vote on the 2026-27 budget no later than June 30. As of February, the district expects a budget shortfall of approximately $21 million for the 2026-27 school year.

Vue’s term was set to go through 2025 but was extended through December of this year due to a change in election years. In discussing his resignation, Vue said he did not plan on serving beyond his four-year term.

The board’s resolution to fill the seat originally stated that two to four candidates would be interviewed. However, board members voted last month to interview all five candidates.

Among the requirements, candidates must be a resident of the school district for at least 30 days and may not be an SPPS employee. Board chair Ward recused himself in February from the candidate selection due to a potential conflict of interest — candidate Lesley Lavery is the co-chair of the dissertation committee overseeing Ward’s doctoral dissertation at Valdosta State University in Valdosta, Ga. He also abstained from the motion to interview all five candidates.

The candidates

Here’s a rundown of the candidates, who all live in St. Paul:

Robin Feickert

Feickert is a claims technician and training specialist with Wilson-McShane Corp., a financial services company in Bloomington. She has one seventh-grader in the district.

She is a former aquatics director and director of healthy living at the YMCA of the Greater Twin Cities and former aquatics director with the St. Paul Jewish Community Center. She earned her bachelor’s degree from St. Olaf College before attending dentistry school at the University of Minnesota. Feickert has volunteer experience with the Friends of the St. Paul Public Library, the American Red Cross Twin Cities-area chapter and Special Olympics Minnesota.

Lesley Lavery

Lavery is a professor of political science at Macalester College with a specialty in K-12 public education policy. She also formerly chaired the college’s department of political science. She is a parent of two children in the district and was an elementary school teacher in California through Teach for America. She also has volunteered with the district.

Her research has been published in journals such as the ILR Review, the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, and Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis. She also published a book in 2020 titled “A Collective Pursuit: Teachers’ Unions and Education Reform” through Temple University Press.

Lavery received her bachelor’s degree from Willamette University in Salem, Ore., and her Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Brandon Lowe

Lowe is an assessment, data and research coordinator with the Burnsville-Eagan-Savage school district. He previously worked for Orange County Public Schools in Orlando, Fla., as an assistant principal of instruction, assessment coordinator, instructional coach and teacher.

He received his bachelor’s degree from the University of Central Florida in Orlando and his master’s degree in educational leadership from St. Leo University in St. Leo, Fla. He then received his doctorate in educational leadership from the University of Central Florida.

Beth Mork

Mork is a hospitalist at M Health Fairview and a parent in the district. She previously worked at the Raiter Clinic in Cloquet, Minn., as a family practice physician. She is treasurer of Humboldt High School’s Parent Teacher Organization and has volunteered with West Siders for Strong Schools. She also has been involved in several district committees.

Mork received her bachelor’s degree from Luther College in Decorah, Iowa, and attended medical school at the University of Minnesota’s Duluth and Twin Cities campuses.

Carson Starkey

Starkey is a labor union organizer and financial secretary for the Northern Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters’ Local 2055. He has two children in the district and has volunteered in SPPS. He also teaches a class on the labor movement through SPPS Community Education.

He earned his bachelor’s degree in political science and government from Minnesota State University Moorhead and his Juris Doctor at the University of Illinois Chicago School of Law.

Starkey notes that he is an Iraq War veteran and public policy expert on his LinkedIn. He has worked on Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party campaigns and worked for the DFL during midterm legislative campaigns in 2010.

While in Illinois, Starkey was director of the labor union-funded nonprofit, the Illinois Fair Trade Coalition. He also was involved in University of Illinois Chicago free legal clinics.

He is a former member of the city of St. Paul’s Labor Standards Advisory Committee and former commissioner on the city’s Human Rights and Equal Economic Opportunity Commission.

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Bailey Nurseries is selling 184 acres of land to be redeveloped for residential and business use, according to the city of Woodbury.

The sale includes land east of Century Avenue to become a mixed-use development that would include residential, retail and business park land uses.

Bailey Nurseries is selling 184 acres of land for the development of mixed residential, retail and business park uses in Newport and Woodbury. (Courtesy of the city of Woodbury)

The proposed project would include up to 360 attached residential units, 89,600 square feet of retail and up to 660,400 square feet of business park, according to an environmental review of the project.

Bailey Nurseries, founded in 1905, is a family-run business that supplies plants nationally and is known for its Endless Summer Hydrangeas, First Editions Plants and Easy Elegance Roses.

The business’s former president and chairman of the board, Gordie Bailey, died in January. He is remembered for his love of plants, hatred of buckthorn and substantial contributions to the agricultural landscape of Minnesota.

Bailey Nurseries is not the developer of the project, said Ryan McEnaney, a fifth-generation family member and owner who serves as the company’s director of marketing and communications.

“We (Bailey Nurseries) are the seller of the property, working in collaboration with the cities of Woodbury, Newport and Maplewood,” McEnaney said.

There is no master developer of the project just yet, project broker Luke Appert of Cushman and Wakefield said, though developer deals are under review. It’s likely that multiple developers will come on board as the pieces fall into place.

To sell the property and prepare for development, Bailey shifted some operations to other parcels of land owned by the company, Appert said.

“Nothing’s changed on their end,” Appert said. “We want to make sure that’s crystal clear that this isn’t a sale because the business isn’t viable anymore. It’s a strategic way, because there’s been a bunch of interest in these properties for quite some time.”

The project

The project includes a phased extension of Century Avenue south of Carver Avenue to Bailey Road.

About 30 acres on the east side of the project area is slated to be a public/semi-public recreational area for New Life Academy, a private Christian school located at 6758 Bailey Road. The area is proposed to include parks and sports complexes that could include baseball fields, softball fields, soccer fields, football fields and tennis/pickleball courts.

The development also would include light industrial business spaces and a mix of high-, medium- and low-density housing.

The project has been in development for over five years, according to Woodbury city planner Eric Searles.

“The proposed retail uses will provide additional shopping opportunities in southern Woodbury, which has been a frequent request from local residents,” Searles said. “Furthermore, the project will provide new housing options with great pedestrian access to the future retail and Carver Lake Park.”

Appert said the project includes close to 15 acres of retail, but what exactly those retail businesses will be, he said, they aren’t certain of just yet.

Timeline

Bailey Nurseries is selling some of its land along Century Avenue in Woodbury and Newport for a mixed-use development. (John Autey / Pioneer Press)

Appert said at some point in the spring and summer, formal plans for development are expected to be submitted for the project, and construction may begin in the late summer or fall.

“I look forward to discussing the Bailey Development proposal at a future city council meeting,” Woodbury Mayor Anne Burt said. “From a big-picture view, our well-planned growth over the past several decades has provided us with the robust residential, commercial, retail, employment and services that make Woodbury one of the best places to live not only in Minnesota but the entire country.”

The development has a construction timeline of two to four years, according to the project’s environmental assessment worksheet, though Searles said it may take longer.

“While a specific completion date is not yet known, the full build-out will likely take over five years due to the size of the development,” Searles said.

The first phase of the mixed-use development will be 46 acres in Newport, just north of Bailey Road, said Newport Mayor Laurie Elliott. That development, called Bailey Farm, is expected to consist of two industrial buildings, a multi-family apartment complex and a Kwik Trip convenience store, she said.

“We’re very excited to have a Kwik Trip come into the community,” Elliott said. “What’s nice about the Kwik Trip is that it brings with it a wider selection of groceries and fresh-food items and a number of other convenience items.”

Another project, not part of the Bailey development, is being constructed on Century Avenue in Newport, south of Military Road. The Cherrywood development includes 117 residential units on about 35 acres, some of which are unbuildable bluff areas, according to Newport city officials. The residential units will be split between 69 single-family detached villas and eight townhome buildings with a total of 48 attached units. The Cherrywood development included the paving of Century Avenue in Newport, Elliott said.

“That was the last gravel road in the city, and now that it’s paved, Cherrywood is going to bring new single-family and townhomes to the city, which haven’t really seen a new development since Bailey Meadows was built around 2018,” she said.

Public comment

The city of Woodbury is taking public comment on the Bailey Development project from now until March 26 on the city’s website, woodburymn.gov.

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