By Jeff Ostrowski, Bankrate.com

Nearly everyone thinks the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. That sentiment has translated to falling mortgage rates. Last week, the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.38%, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. Rates haven’t been this low in nearly a year.

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“These lower rates reflect growing market optimism that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates at its next meeting on Sept. 17, with further cuts expected through the end of the year,” says Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage.

An important note: Mortgage rates are dictated not by central bank policy but by a complex array of factors, including 10-year Treasury yields and demand for mortgages among the investors who buy home loans. Reflecting signs of a slowing economy, 10-year Treasury rates recently flirted with 4%, well below the 4.5% levels seen earlier this year.

Even so, the economic data remains decidedly mixed. The Labor Department’s August jobs report came in weaker than expected, setting the stage for the Fed to cut rates. However, the August inflation report told a different story — price increases accelerated to 2.9%, moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target and arguing against a rate cut.

But if the Fed does cut rates by a quarter-point as expected, what will happen to mortgage rates? Alas, it’s not an easy question to answer, but here are some scenarios of how things could play out.

Scenario 1: Mortgage rates rise

We’ve seen this movie before: When the central bank cut its benchmark rate last year, mortgage rates rose.

In mid-September 2024, the average rate on 30-year loans was 6.2%, according to Bankrate’s national survey. Then, the Fed cut rates at three meetings in a row, cumulatively lowering its benchmark rate by a full percentage point. How did mortgage rates respond? They defied the Fed and shot up, rising above 7%.

That disconnect between the federal funds rate and mortgage rates suggests that even if the central bank trims rates twice this year, as most observers expect, mortgage rates could head back toward 7%.

Last year, mortgage rates zigged while Fed policy zagged, a clear reminder that the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. If recent history repeats itself, then the coming cut has already been built into mortgage rates, and they’ll go up from here — especially given the surprising stubbornness of inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) has been held aloft in part by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

“I expect rates to have some slight upward pressure as the market processes CPI data and the upcoming Fed meeting,” says Robert J. Smith, chief economist at GetWYZ Mortgage.

In this scenario, the recent optimism about lower rates quickly evaporates.

Scenario 2: Mortgage rates stay the same

Perhaps history doesn’t repeat itself. Maybe mortgage rates settle into the range of 6.25% to 6.5%. That would be a welcome relief from a recent run of elevated mortgage rates. They briefly hit 8% in 2023, then spent stretches of 2024 and 2025 above 7%.

In this scenario, mortgage rates enter a holding pattern as the market makes sense of conflicting economic data.

“A 25 basis point cut is almost a sure thing, and the market has baked that into the current rate level,” says Sean P. Salter, an associate professor of finance at Middle Tennessee State University. “I look for rates to remain in the current range until we get some better idea of the true state of the U.S. economy.”

Much of the recent decline in mortgage rates was spurred by the jobs report that came out in early September. It’s unlikely that the Fed’s move will lead to further declines in mortgage rates, says Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president at Nation One Mortgage Corp.

If this is how the story plays out, it’s not all bad: The recent downturn in rates is getting some buyers and borrowers off the sidelines. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Refinance Index increased 34% in early September from the same week a year ago, and its Purchase Index rose 23%, according to the trade group’s most recent report.

Scenario 3: Mortgage rates fall

Another possibility — and one that loan officers and real estate agents are hoping for — is that mortgage rates keep falling, and that the Fed keeps cutting. It’s a be-careful-what-you-wish-for scenario: Mortgage rates generally rise when the economy is revving, and they typically fall when the economy begins to sputter. So declining rates would probably follow continued weakness in the job market.

Rates at 6% or below wouldn’t be bad news in certain corners. Some discouraged homebuyers could decide to get off the sidelines and resume their home searches. And some of those homeowners who took mortgages at 7.5% could refinance into cheaper debt.

“We’ve seen a consistent stream of data pointing to cooling inflation and a softer labor market, which together create downward pressure on yields,” says Dr. Anthony O. Kellum, president and CEO of Kellum Mortgage in Roseville, Michigan. “The bond market has already started to reflect this sentiment, with investors positioning for the likelihood that the Fed will begin easing later this year. That shift in expectations tends to trickle directly into mortgage rates. While volatility is always possible, especially if unexpected economic reports surface, the overall momentum feels tilted toward slightly lower rates in the near term.”

©2025 Bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

By JULIA FRANKEL and SAMY MAGDY, Associated Press

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli troops and tanks were pushing deeper into Gaza City on Wednesday, the second day of a ground offensive that was widely condemned internationally, as Palestinians fled the devastated area en masse.

Displaced Palestinians flee Gaza City by foot and vehicles, carrying their belongings along the coastal road toward southern Gaza, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Israel’s military said that air force and artillery units had struck the city over 150 times in the last few days, ahead of ground troops moving in. The strikes have toppled high-rise towers in areas densely populated by tent camps where thousands of Palestinians are sheltering. Israel claims the towers are being used by Hamas to surveil troops.

Overnight strikes killed at least 16 people, including women and children, hospital officials reported. The death count in Gaza is nearing 65,000 Palestinians since the war began Oct. 7, 2023, with a Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel, according to health officials in the enclave.

Meanwhile, Palestinians streamed out of the city — some by car, others on foot. Israel opened another corridor south of Gaza City for two days beginning Wednesday to allow more people to evacuate.

Children and parents among the latest fatalities

More than half of the Palestinians killed in overnight Israeli strikes were in famine-stricken Gaza City, including a child and his mother who died in their apartment in the Shati refugee camp, according to officials from Shifa Hospital, which received the casualties.

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In central Gaza, Al-Awda Hospital said an Israeli strike hit a house in the urban Nuseirat refugee camp, killing three, including a pregnant woman. Two parents and their child were also killed when a strike hit their tent in the Muwasi area west of the city of Khan Younis, said officials from Nasser Hospital, where the bodies were brought.

The Gaza Health Ministry, meanwhile, said that multiple Israeli strikes hit the Rantisi Hospital for children in Gaza City on Tuesday night. It posted pictures on Facebook showing the damaged roof, water tanks and rubble in a hospital hallway.

The ministry, which is part of the Hamas-run government, said the strikes forced half of some 80 patients to flee the facility. About 40 patients, including four children in intensive care and eight premature babies, remained in the hospital with 30 medical workers, the ministry said.

The Israeli military said it was looking into the strikes, but in the past it has accused Hamas of building military infrastructure inside civilian areas.

The military’s Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee, wrote on social media that a new route opened for those heading south for two days starting at noon Wednesday.

But many Palestinians in the north were cut off from the outside world. The Palestinian Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, based in the occupied West Bank, said Israeli strikes on the main network lines in northern Gaza had collapsed internet and telephone services Wednesday morning. The Associated Press tried unsuccessfully to reach many people in Gaza City.

An estimated 1 million Palestinians were living in the Gaza City region before warnings to evacuate began ahead of the offensive, and the Israeli military estimates 350,000 people have left the city. The U.N. estimates that more than 238,000 Palestinians of some 1 million believed living in the city have fled northern Gaza over the past month. Hundreds of thousands more have stayed behind.

Aid groups and Qatar condemn offensive

A coalition of leading aid groups Wednesday urged the international community to take stronger measures to stop Israel’s offensive on Gaza City. It came a day after a commission of U.N. experts found Israel was committing genocide in the Palestinian enclave. Israel denies the allegation.

“What we are witnessing in Gaza is not only an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe, but what the U.N. Commission of Inquiry has now concluded is a genocide,” read the statement from the aid groups. “States must use every available political, economic, and legal tool at their disposal to intervene. Rhetoric and half measures are not enough. This moment demands decisive action.”

The message was signed by leaders of over 20 aid organizations operating in Gaza, including the Norwegian Refugee Council, Anera and Save the Children.

Also Wednesday, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement saying they condemned “in the strongest terms” Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza. The ministry wrote on X that the operation marked a “extension of the war of genocide” against the Palestinians.

Qatar is incensed over an Israeli strike last week that killed five Hamas members and a local security official.

Israel’s return to Gaza City

An Israeli military graphic suggested its troops hope to control all of the Gaza Strip except for a large swath along the coast by the end of the current operation.

Israeli forces have carried out multiple large-scale raids into Gaza City over the course of the war, causing mass displacement and heavy destruction, only to see militants regroup later. This time, Israel has pledged to take control of the entire city, which experts say is experiencing famine.

An Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with military guidelines, said Tuesday they believe there are 2,000 to 3,000 Hamas militants left in Gaza City, as well as tunnels used by the group. Hamas’ military capabilities have been vastly diminished. It now mainly carries out guerrilla-style attacks, with small groups of fighters planting explosives or attacking military outposts before melting away.

The war has killed more than 64,900 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many were civilians or combatants. The ministry, which is staffed by medical professionals, says women and children make up around half the dead. Its figures are seen as a reliable estimate by the U.N. and many independent experts.

The war in Gaza began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting 251 others. Forty-eight hostages, fewer than half believed to be alive, remain in Gaza.

Magdy reported from Cairo.

PITTSBURGH (AP) — A driver rammed a car into a security gate at the FBI building in Pittsburgh early Wednesday, then removed an American flag from the back seat and threw it over the gate before leaving, authorities said.

The car crashed into the gate at about 2:40 a.m., the FBI said, and authorities were searching for the man. Investigators, including a bomb squad, were at the scene.

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“This incident is considered a targeted attack against the FBI,” the agency said in a statement that was posted online. “No FBI personnel were injured.”

Christopher Giordano, assistant special agent in charge at the FBI in Pittsburgh, told reporters that the car appeared to have some sort of message on one of the side windows.

Giordano said the FBI was familiar with the man.

“He did come here to the FBI field office a few weeks ago to make a complaint that didn’t make a whole lot of sense,” Giordano said.

By MICHELLE CHAPMAN, Associated Press Business Writer

Ben & Jerry’s co-founder Jerry Greenfield is leaving the ice cream brand after 47 years, saying that the independence it once had to speak up on social issues has been stifled by parent company Unilever.

In a letter that co-founder Ben Cohen posted on social media platform X on Greenfield’s behalf, Greenfield said that he felt the independence the brand had to speak on social issues and events was lost to Unilever.

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“For more than 20 years under their ownership, Ben & Jerry’s stood up and spoke out in support of peace, justice and human rights, not as abstract concepts, but in relation to real events happening in our world,” he wrote. “That independence existed in no small part because of the unique merger agreement Ben and I negotiated with Unilever, one that enshrined our social mission and values in the company’s governance structure in perpetuity. It’s profoundly disappointing to come to the conclusion that that independence, the very basis of our sale to Unilever, is gone.”

Greenfield said that the loss of independence was coming “at a time when our country’s current administration is attacking civil rights, voting rights, the rights of immigrants, women and the LGBTQ community.”

“Standing up for the values of justice, equity, and our shared humanity has never been more important, and yet Ben & Jerry’s has been silenced, sidelined for fear of upsetting those in power,” he said. “It’s easy to stand up and speak out when there’s nothing at risk. The real test of values is when times are challenging and you have something to lose.”

Greenfield noted that Ben & Jerry’s, famous for its colorful ice cream containers with names such as Cherry Garcia and Phish Food, “was always about more than just ice cream; it was a way to spread love and invite others into the fight for equity, justice and a better world.”

A spokesperson for The Magnum Ice Cream Company said in a statement on Wednesday that it would be forever grateful to Greenfield for his contributions to Ben & Jerry’s and thanked him for his service, but was not aligned with his viewpoint.

“We disagree with his perspective and have sought to engage both co-founders in a constructive conversation on how to strengthen Ben & Jerry’s powerful values-based position in the world,” the spokesperson said.

Magnum said that it is still committed to Ben & Jerry’s mission and remains “focused on carrying forward the legacy of peace, love, and ice cream of this iconic, much-loved brand.”

Ben & Jerry’s has been at odds with Unilever for a while. In March Ben & Jerry’s said that its CEO was unlawfully removed by Unilever in retaliation for the ice cream maker’s social and political activism.

In a federal court filing, Ben & Jerry’s said that Unilever informed its board on March 3 that it was removing and replacing Ben & Jerry’s CEO David Stever. Ben & Jerry’s said that violated its merger agreement with Unilever, which states that any decisions regarding a CEO’s removal must come after a consultation with an advisory committee from Ben & Jerry’s board.

London-based Unilever said in a statement at the time that it hoped Ben & Jerry’s board would engage in the agreed-upon process.

Unilever acquired Ben & Jerry’s in 2000 for $326 million. At the time, Ben & Jerry’s said the partnership would help the progressive Vermont-based ice cream company expand its social mission.

But lately, the marriage hasn’t been a happy one. In 2021, Ben & Jerry’s announced it would stop serving Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and contested east Jerusalem. The following year, Unilever sold its Israeli business to a local company that said it would sell Ben & Jerry’s under its Hebrew and Arabic name throughout Israel and the West Bank.

In May 2024 Unilever said that it was planning to spin off its ice cream business — including Ben & Jerry’s — by the end of 2025 as part of a larger restructuring. Unilever also owns personal hygiene brands like Dove soap and food brands like Hellmann’s mayonnaise.

But the acrimony continued. In November, Ben & Jerry’s sued Unilever in federal court in New York, accusing it of silencing Ben & Jerry’s statements in support of Palestinians in the Gaza war.

In its complaint, Ben & Jerry’s said Unilever also refused to let the company release a social media post that identified issues it believed would be challenged during President Donald Trump’s second term, including minimum wages, universal health care, abortion and climate change.