7 Oct 2024

Tips, overtime, Social Security: A look at Donald Trump’s no-tax pledges and what they might cost

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By MEG KINNARD

Donald Trump has pledged to end taxes on everything from tips to Social Security and overtime pay if he’s elected to the White House again. But he hasn’t detailed how he would fund those ideas and avoid creating a huge budget shortfall, beyond arguing he will usher in an economic boom.

He argues his ideas would improve Americans’ personal financial standing and the overall U.S. economy. A debate about the tax code will be a dominant legislative issue next year given that tax cuts Trump signed in 2017 will be set to expire. If he’s elected again, Trump could push Congress to enact some or all of his proposals, though that might be difficult if Democrats end up in control of either the House or the Senate.

Estimates from outside economic analyses of the costs of the various tax cuts ranged between nearly $6 trillion and $10 trillion over 10 years, depending on which ideas become policy and how they’re implemented.

In a statement, a Trump campaign senior adviser touted the Republican’s plans as the best way to jumpstart the U.S. economy.

“President Trump’s plan will rein in wasteful spending, defeat inflation, reduce the burden of interest costs, and ignite economic growth that fuels federal revenue, so we can make our economy great again,” Brian Hughes said.

A look at Trump’s various tax-related ideas:

‘No tax on tips’

In June, Trump announced his plan to exclude workers’ tips from federal taxes, saying he got the idea from a waitress at his Las Vegas hotel.

“To those hotel workers and people who get tips, you are going to be very happy, because when I get to office we are going to not charge taxes on tips, people making tips,” Trump said, adding: “We’re going to do that right away, first thing in office.”

Trump made the announcement in Nevada, a key battleground state with six electoral votes and home to the highest concentration of tipped workers in the country. Nevada has an average of 25.8 waiters and waitresses per 1,000 jobs. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020, but the Trump campaign hopes to put it in play this fall.

Trump has not specified whether he wants to exempt tips from just income taxes or from the payroll tax — which funds Medicare and Social Security — as well.

Vice President Kamala Harris has echoed Trump’s call for no taxes on tips, making a pledge that would apply to hospitality and service industry workers at a Nevada rally of her own two months after her GOP opponent’s announcement.

Social Security tax cuts

Trump has also pledged tax cuts for older Americans, posting on Truth Social in July that “SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY!”

The challenge is that taxes on Social Security benefits help to pay for the program. The loss of revenue could mean that Social Security would be unable to pay out its full benefits in 2033, two years ahead of the current estimate, according to Brendan Duke of the liberal Center for American Progress.

According to the Social Security Administration, recipients must currently pay federal income taxes if combined income — 50% of the benefit amount plus any other earned income — is higher than $25,000 annually if filing individually, or $32,000 if filing jointly.

While in the Senate, Harris co-sponsored a bill that would have required the wealthy to pay higher Social Security taxes and made benefits more generous for some. The White House has said her views on the program are similar to Biden’s, but Harris hasn’t talked in detail about Social Security during her campaign.

Overtime taxes

Trump has also said he would support legislation to eliminate taxes on overtime pay.

“That gives people more of an incentive to work,” Trump said in September at a campaign rally in Tucson, Arizona. “It gives the companies a lot, it’s a lot easier to get the people.”

Harris has not said if she would also call for cuts to taxes of overtime pay.

Corporate tax rates

Trump’s plans include proposed breaks for businesses, too. He’s called for lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but only for companies that produce in the U.S.

“We’re putting America first,” Trump said. “This new American industrialism will create millions and millions of jobs.”

As president, Trump signed legislation in 2017 that cut the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%.

Harris has said she believes that big corporations and the ultra-wealthy should pay more in taxes — including a 28% rate for corporations — and wants to use those revenues to help spur the construction of 3 million homes and offer tax breaks for parents.

SALT

Ahead of a September rally on Long Island, Trump pledged that he would “get SALT back,” suggesting he would eliminate a cap on state and local tax deductions that were part of tax cut legislation he signed into law in 2017.

The so-called SALT cap has led to bigger tax bills for many residents of New York, New Jersey, California and other high-cost, high-tax states, and is an important campaign issue in those states, particularly among those New York Republicans serving in districts Biden won.

Some Democrats have pushed to lift the $10,000 cap, a move many Republicans have said they oppose. Some, including Trump’s former GOP primary foe Nikki Haley, have called for making the 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some of that notion is enshrined in Republicans’ 2024 platform, although the permanence provision specifically calls out portions “that doubled the standard deduction, expanded the Child Tax Credit, and spurred Economic Growth for all Americans.”

Harris has not said that she would try to preserve Trump-era tax cuts, which are set to run out at the end of next year. But, like Biden, she has vowed not to raise taxes for Americans who earn less than $400,000 annually.

Tariffs

Angling to bring back more overseas jobs and manufacturing to the U.S., Trump has said repeatedly that he wants higher tariffs on imported goods, and has said the idea wouldn’t increase inflation. He has floated the idea of a universal tariff as high as 20% on all imports and even higher tariffs on Chinese products and on U.S. companies that move factory jobs overseas.

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In a recent speech at the Economic Club of New York, Trump suggested that tariffs could be used to solve seemingly unrelated challenges such as the rising cost of child care in the U.S., as part of a broader promise that tariffs can raise trillions of dollars to fund his agenda without those costs being passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices. That’s a view with which many economists disagree since tariffs directly raise the prices of purchasing goods.

Particularly as it relates to the U.S. auto industry, it’s a notion he called for again recently in Savannah, Georgia, where Trump said he’d put a 100% tariff on every car imported from Mexico. Calling for a “new American industrialism,” Trump suggested that the only way to avoid those charges would be for an automaker to build the cars in the U.S.

Harris has described Trump’s ideas for tariffs as a “sales tax” on American households that could cost a typical family roughly $4,000 annually.

Associated Press writer Josh Boak in Washington contributed to this report.

7 Oct 2024

Turf war? Florida in apparent clash with feds over Trump golf gunman investigation

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Now that a federal grand jury has handed up an indictment charging an alleged gunman with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, a question remains about whether the state of Florida is being sidelined in its own investigation by a dispute with U.S. authorities over access to evidence.

In a Sept. 23 letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray and U.S. Attorney Markenzy Lapointe of the Southern District of Florida, state Attorney General Ashley Moody requested that both clarify whether the Justice Department intends to invoke a federal statute that reserves jurisdiction for federal law enforcement to investigate the case.

“If Federal investigative or prosecutive jurisdiction is asserted for a violation of this section, such assertion shall suspend the exercise of jurisdiction by a State or local authority, under any applicable State or local law, until Federal action is terminated,” the statute reads.

Moody, who authored the letter and posted it on her department’s website on Sept. 23, says both Lapointe and Jeffrey Veltri, special agent in charge of the FBI in Miami, raised the statute with two state officials shortly after the arrest of Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, who now stands accused of attempting to assassinate a presidential candidate, along with the commission of four gun-related violations. He has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting a jury trial without bail.

“To avoid any misunderstanding, I write to advise you that the State of Florida does not believe this provision has been properly invoked,” Moody told Wray and Lapointe of the jurisdictional limit.

She said Lapointe had raised the statute in a conversation about the case with Statewide Prosecutor Nick Cox, while Veltri discussed it with a state law enforcement official she did not identify.

“To be clear, I believe it would a grave mistake for the federal government to invoke this provision, and I urge you to cooperate with the state’s investigation rather than frustrate it,” Moody wrote. “In the meantime, however, we must advise our agents in the field and consider any legal course of action we may wish to take going forward.”

Moody asked Wray and Lapointe to respond to her letter by Sept. 27, which was 10 days ago.

It was not known if either official responded, or if they did, what they said.

Moody’s press secretary, Chase Sizemore in Tallahassee, did not respond to an emailed request for comment last week. Lapointe’s spokesperson at the U.S. Attorney Office in Miami, Sarah Schall, acknowledged receipt of a list of questions from the Sun Sentinel but had yet to provide responses.

Moody sent the letter shortly after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced the state would conduct its own probe of the case against Routh, saying federal authorities had failed to appropriately charge the defendant.

After his Sept. 15 capture by local law enforcement on Interstate 95 in Martin County, Routh initially faced only a pair of federal weapons violations, charges that were seized upon by DeSantis and Trump as a dramatic understatement by the Justice Department of the gravity of events.

Two days later, on Sept. 17, DeSantis issued an executive order assigning the Office of the Statewide Prosecutor Florida to pursue a case against Routh in conjunction with the Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Florida Highway Patrol.

“I have directed state agencies to move expeditiously and to provide full transparency to the public,” the governor said during a news conference, adding that he lacked trust in the ability of federal agencies to be transparent with the public about their investigation.

“‘Don’t you want to have investigative agencies that are just going to pursue this without any other agenda creeping in?” he asked. “I don’t think anyone can honestly claim that the federal government has been forthright and transparent about its past investigations.”

Critics called the DeSantis initiative a political exercise.

And on Sept. 24, a federal grand jury handed up an indictment charging Routh with the attempted assassination of a presidential candidate, in addition to four weapons-related charges. During a three-hour detention hearing the day before, Assistant U.S. Attorney Dispoto informed U.S. Magistrate Ryon McCabe that the government intended to  “ask a grand jury to consider a charge that the defendant attempted to assassinate Trump,” which carries a “maximum sentence punishable by life in prison.”

To date, no state charges have been filed.

Routh was arrested after a U.S. Secret Service agent spotted a firearm tucked amid shrubbery near the Trump International Golf Club on Summit Boulevard. The agent, assigned to Trump’s security detail, opened fire, prompting the suspect to flee in an SUV. He was arrested by law enforcement authorities about 45 miles north in Martin County.

The Secret Service has said Routh did not fire any shots and never had Trump in his line of sight, although court testimony from an FBI agent indicated the suspect’s AR-15 style weapon had been set up about 100 feet from the sixth hole, and Trump and his entourage had reached the fifth fairway during their afternon outing on Sept. 15.

The incident occurred only two months after Trump was grazed by a bullet and a bystander was killed at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The gunman, who had stationed himself on the roof of a nearby building, was killed by law enforcement.

FBI investigators are shown at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach on Sept. 16, one day after the arrest of suspect Ryan Wesley Routh, who has been charged with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. (Amy Beth Bennett / South Florida Sun Sentinel)

Hands off?

Since the governor’s directive, it is unclear how much of an investigation state authorities have been able to conduct.

In her letter to Wray and Lapointe, Moody noted that state and federal agencies have frequently collaborated on criminal investigations, and that the alleged attempt on the former president’s life at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach was of high importance to Florida because it took place within the state.

“Because the second assassination attempt against President Trump occurred in Florida and was perpetrated against a Florida citizen, the State understandably desires to investigate violations of its own laws, including attempted murder,” Moody wrote.

“In light of the above, I was surprised to learn that FBI and DOJ officials have indicated they may not cooperate with the state of Florida or allow the state access to evidence already collected by federal agencies,” she wrote.

To cooperate, or not cooperate

In separate interviews, three people not involved in the Routh investigation agreed that state and federal officials have a history of collaborating in a variety of criminal investigations, including cases ranging from narcotics trafficking and money laundering to organized health care and securities frauds.

Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg, whose office is not involved in the investigation, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel last week that while it is not unusual for federal and state agencies to collaborate, “what is unusual is a competing investigation based on mistrust, and that’s what the state has launched.”

“Fortunately, the state investigation is being led by Nick Cox who is a professional and doesn’t do politics,” Aronberg said. “He’s going to follow the evidence and the law. He’s a very likable person so he is going to have a good relationship with Markenzy Lapointe, who is another good guy.”

Aronberg said he doesn’t see the emergence of a “turf war.”

“Because the trial is going to happen sooner than later, the state can wait until the federal prosecution is completed before going full force into its own investigation,” Aronberg said. “I think the state will move forward to a limited extent. They will avoid any direct conflicts. For example, the state is not going to give immunity to witnesses because that could affect the federal case. Also, the state is going to depend on the federal government to access key evidence, including an interview with the Secret Service agent who could be a victim in all of this.”

Robert Jarvis, law professor at Nova Southeastern University in Davie, said it’s customary that the state “stands down if the federal government asserts jurisdiction. But the state does not have to do so — as a separate sovereign, it can prosecute the individual but normally does so only after the federal government has finished prosecuting the individual.”

“The U.S. Supreme Court has made it clear that a person can be prosecuted for the same crime by both the federal and state governments without violating the Constitution’s Double Jeopardy clause because of something known as the ‘dual sovereign doctrine,’” he added.

But Miami criminal defense lawyer David Weinstein, a former federal prosecutor, called a parallel investigation by the state a “bad idea.”

“They should be working in concert with the federal authorities,” he said. “The state case is going to take much longer. To have a state law enforcement agency re-interviewing the same witnesses is now going to create different statements by the witnesses and it’s a way for defense counsel to create reasonable doubt.”

Indefinite delay sought

In the end, the state might end up with all the time it needs to gather and evaluate evidence for whatever case it seeks to mount as federal prosecutors, apparently overwhelmed by the volume of evidence it has collected, need more time to evaluate all of it.

The trial, initially scheduled for Nov. 18 by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in Fort Pierce, is now the subject of a request for a delay by the government.

Cannon, who dismissed the U.S. Government’s classified documents case against Trump last summer, is entertaining a prosecution motion to delay the Routh trial until an unspecified date.

On Thursday, Cannon responded to the request by giving Routh’s public defenders until Oct. 9 to file a waiver of the Speedy Trial Act, “along with a clear statement of Defendant’s position with regard to the ends of justice being served by the United States’ request.”

7 Oct 2024

New analysis suggests national debt could increase under Harris, but it would surge under Trump

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By JOSH BOAK

WASHINGTON (AP) — No one is likely to be happy with the projected higher deficits laid out in a new analysis of Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s economic plans.

The analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggests a Harris presidency could increase the national debt over 10 years by $3.5 trillion. That’s even though the vice president’s campaign insists her proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her campaign policy guide states that Harris is “committed to fiscal responsibility — making investments that will support our economy, while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time.”

The same analysis says former President Trump’s ideas could heap another $7.5 trillion onto the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion. That’s even though he suggests growth would be so strong under his watch that no one would need to worry about deficits.

The 34-page report released by the fiscal watchdog group puts a spotlight on the issue of government borrowing that will confront the winner of November’s election. Total federal debt held by the public now tops $28 trillion and is expected to keep climbing as revenues can’t keep up with the growing costs of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. The analysis noted that the expense of servicing that debt in dollar terms has “eclipsed the cost of defending our nation or providing health care to elderly Americans.”

Drawing on the candidates’ speeches, campaign documents and social media posts, the analysis warns bluntly: “Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidates’ plans and in most scenarios would grow faster and higher than under current law.”

Neither candidate has meaningfully stressed budget deficit reduction in their pitch to voters. But multiple analyses show a clear difference of Harris being much more fiscally responsible than Trump.

Harvard University professor Jason Furman, who was the top economist in the Obama White House, estimated in an opinion article for The Wall Street Journal that Harris’ plans could cut deficits by $1.5 trillion or raise them by $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, his estimates show that Trump’s plans would increase deficits by $5 trillion, though that figure does not include his plans to charge no taxes on overtime pay and scrap the limit on deductions of state and local taxes.

There are other estimates by The Budget Lab at Yale and the Penn Wharton Budget Model that also show Harris would be better at keeping the deficit in check.

The Harris campaign said it sharply disagreed with the analysis of Harris’ policies by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, saying that she would reduce the deficit if she became president. The Trump campaign did not respond to questions about its response to the analysis.

The committee analysis estimates that Harris’ policy ideas could add $3.5 trillion to the national debt through 2035. That conclusion depends on its treatment of how much various programs could cost.

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It forecasts that Harris would implement $4.6 trillion in tax reductions, including extensions of some of the expiring 2017 tax cuts that Trump signed into law and tax breaks for parents and no taxes on tipped income for hospitality workers. Roughly $4 trillion in higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy would be insufficient to cover the total cost of her agenda and the additional interest on the debt that it could generate.

Still, the analysis notes that its numbers depend on various interpretations of what Harris has said. It’s possible that Harris’ agenda would add nothing to baseline deficits, but the report also said it might plausibly add as much as $8.1 trillion in debt in what appears to be a worse-case scenario.

By contrast, Trump’s ideas would likely add another $7.5 trillion to the debt. His $2.7 trillion in tariff revenues would be unable to cover $9.2 trillion in tax cuts and additional expenditures such as $350 billion to secure the border and deport unauthorized immigrants.

But the analysis includes other possibilities that show far higher deficits under Trump. If his tariffs raised less money and there were higher costs for his mass deportations and tax breaks, the national debt could jump by $15.2 trillion.

On the other hand, if the tariffs raised $4.3 trillion and there were no costs tied to deportations, Trump’s plans could only increase the debt by $1.5 trillion over 10 years.

7 Oct 2024

Wild include Liam Ohgren, Jesper Wallstedt on opening night roster

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The Wild practiced with the team they will take into the regular season opener this morning, a roster that includes rookies Liam Ohgren, Marat Khusnutdinov and Jesper Wallstedt.

NHL teams have until 4 p.m. CDT to finalize their 23-player rosters but this is the team Minnesota will ice when they play host to Columbus in a 7 p.m. puck drop Thursday at Xcel Energy Center.

For now, the Wild will carry three goaltenders, rookie Wallstedt, Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury. That is likely to change at times this season as the Wild use roster space to accommodate their schedule.

The Wild start the season with a pair of home games Thursday and Saturday, then play their next seven on the road, the rest of their October schedule.

Ohgren, the Wilds first-round pick in the 2022 entry draft (19th overall), made his NHL debut last spring after his professional team in Sweden was bounced from the playoffs. A 6-foot, 188-pound wing, he had a goal and assist in four games.

WILD ROSTER

Forwards: Matt Boldy, Yakov Trenin, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno, Khusnutdinov, Marco Rossi, Ohgren, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Marcus Johansson, Jakub Lauko and Kirill Kaprizov.

Defensemen: Jon Merrill, Jake Middleton, Brock Faber, Zach Bogosian, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon and Declan Chisholm.

Goaltenders: Marc-Andre Fleury, Wallstedt, Filip Gustavsson.