KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Flash floods in Texas killed dozens and left an unknown number of July Fourth visitors and campers missing, including many girls attending Camp Mystic. The devastation along the Guadalupe River, outside of San Antonio, has drawn a massive search effort as officials face questions over their preparedness and the speed of their initial actions.

Here’s what to know about the deadly flooding, the colossal weather system that drove it in and around Kerr County, Texas, and ongoing efforts to identify victims.

Massive rain hit at just the wrong time, in a flood-prone place

The floods grew to their worst at the midpoint of a long holiday weekend when many people were asleep.

The Texas Hill Country in the central part of the state is naturally prone to flash flooding due to the dry dirt-packed areas where the soil lets rain skid along the surface of the landscape instead of soaking it up. Friday’s flash floods started with a particularly bad storm that dropped most of its 12 inches (30 centimeters) of rain in the dark early morning hours.

After a flood watch notice midday Thursday, the National Weather Service office issued an urgent warning around 4 a.m. that raised the potential of catastrophic damage and a severe threat to human life. By at least 5:20 a.m., some in the Kerrville City area say water levels were getting alarmingly high. The massive rain flowing down hills sent rushing water into the Guadalupe River, causing it to rise 26 feet (8 meters) in just 45 minutes.

Death toll is expected to rise and the number of missing is uncertain

At least 59 people in Kerr County, and eight elsewhere in central Texas were confirmed dead as of Sunday morning.

In Kerr County, 38 of the victims dead were adults and 21 were children, including 16 girls recovered from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river. Eleven more girls were still unaccounted for.

For past campers, the tragedy turned happy memories into grief.

Beyond the Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, the number of missing from other nearby campgrounds and across the region had not been released.

“We don’t even want to begin to estimate at this time,” Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said Saturday, citing the likely influx of visitors during the July Fourth holiday.

Officials face scrutiny over flash flood warnings

Survivors have described the floods as a “pitch black wall of death” and said they received no emergency warnings.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, who lives along the Guadalupe River, said Saturday that “ nobody saw this coming.” Various officials have referred to it as a “100-year-flood,” meaning that the water levels were highly unlikely based on the historical record.

And records behind those statistics don’t always account for human-caused climate change. Though it’s hard to connect specific storms to a warming planet so soon after they occur, meteorologists say that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture and allow severe storms to dump even more rain.

Additionally, officials have come under scrutiny about why residents and youth summer camps along the river were not alerted sooner than 4 a.m. or told to evacuate.

Officials noted that the public can grow weary from too many flooding alerts or forecasts that turn out to be minor.

Kerr county officials said they had presented a proposal for a more robust flood warning system, similar to a tornado warning system, but that members of the public reeled at the cost.

On Sunday, officials walked out of a news briefing after reporters asked them again about delays in alerts and evacuations.

Monumental clearing and rebuilding effort

The flash floods have erased campgrounds and torn homes from their foundations.

“It’s going to be a long time before we’re ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it,” Kelly said Saturday after surveying the destruction from a helicopter.

Other massive flooding events have driven residents and business owners to give up, including in areas struck last year by Hurricane Helene.

AP photographers have captured the scale of the destruction, and one of Texas’ largest rescue and recover efforts.

Rededicate ourselves to our founding principles

This Fourth of July prompts serious questions about our nation and how it so radically differs from a proud and historic past.

Is the great American experiment born in enlightenment, freedoms and hope gone? Would the Founders be proud of the country we’ve become?  A majority of the country chose to reject the Founders’ America in the last election. We chose a president without principles who believes he’s above the law and the Constitution, a president who would be king. We weren’t duped, we knew exactly who and what Donald Trump is. There is no place for truth, character and morals in his America nor interest in a unity of states or the common good. Trump’s America is solely for those who pass his loyalty tests. Disagreement makes one an enemy, scum, unpatriotic.

His re-election further illustrated the decay in a nation that’s lost its ideals, for which we all bear responsibility, and also lost is the better part of ourselves. What would the Founders think of a citizenry that embraces rule by billionaires and corporations? What would they think of a citizenry that would allow a Christian minority to rewrite history and establish theirs as a state religion? Any claim we may have to exceptionalism is due to our founding in enlightenment. The American Revolution was not fought to establish a Christian nation nor was the nation founded on acts of conservatism.

If there’s anything left of the nation of our Founders, if there’s still any meaning in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, it is our duty to re-discover the hope and promise of America and re-dedicate ourselves to the principles upon which this nation was founded.

Thomas L. Lenczowski, Mendota Heights

 

Try to respect people

After reading the article on Thom Higgins in Sunday’s paper, I must say I am almost at a loss for words — but not totally. I am not sure why we needed to read about Thom; a mention that he coined the phrase “gay pride” might have been enough. He somehow thought that “pieing” is not violent. Really? Why is OK to interrupt someone to push a pie in their face?Anita Bryant was using her voice and fame to put forth her ideas — just like Thom wanted his views to be known. But Higgins decided it was perfectly fine to physically assault someone.

This type of behavior has gone on way too long.I think destroying people’s property is wrong — flags should not be destroyed because you don’t agree. Treat people the way you want to be treated. It is time to try to respect people.

Joan Barrett, St. Paul

 

For the people or for himself?

President Trump has made hundreds of millions (possibly over 1 billion) dollars selling himself as a presidential candidate and now as president.  Yet, his presidential campaign refuses to reimburse the city of St. Cloud for about $209,000 in expenses incurred for security,  IT services, and changing a road construction project for his July 27, 2024, campaign rally at St. Cloud State University.  Is Trump for the people, or just for himself?

Chris Lyons, St. Paul

 

A much larger debate

Arguing about the execution of bombing Iranian nuclear sites is moot; however, the consequences are worthy of a much larger debate. Have we made more enemies, further alienated our allies, and reinforced opposition alliances?

Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump call for “peace through strength.” Does that mean threaten and bomb your enemies into submission? On the other hand, President Theodore Roosevelt said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” Roosevelt championed a strong military but cautioned against using it to antagonize other nations. His policy was to resolve conflicts by finding mutually agreeable solutions.

On the World Stage or kindergarten playground, those forced into submission find ways to retaliate. We had a nuclear arms agreement with Iran. Trump withdrew it. Lack of a nuclear arms agreement continues to plague US-Iran relations. Weapons of greater devastation will be made. We may have won the battle but lost the war.

Sarah Koper, St. Paul

 

These masked abductions

Last weekend Narciso Barranco was working as a landscaper at an IHOP in Santa Ana, California, when masked agents wearing full tactical gear and wielding guns chased him down and took him to the ground. These masked men can be seen repeatedly striking him in the head and neck and forcing him into an unmarked vehicle with truncheons at his neck. One of the agents is brandishing his handgun sideways at passing vehicles like he is in a Rambo movie. To be clear, Mr. Barranco is undocumented, but he has worked as a laborer in the U.S. for 30 years without any criminal record. Mr. Barranco loved and respected this country so much that the values he instilled in his family inspired his three sons to join the U.S. Marines where they currently serve.

To counter what we can all clearly see in the video, a Homeland Security statement says: “the illegal alien ran and turned and swung a weed whacker at an agents face and resisted arrest”. If these seven 200-plus-pound tough guys in their tactical armor and guns drawn were so afraid of a pot-bellied old man with a weed whip, they should take off their masks, identify themselves, and face the cameras to tell us their story of why they just had to force their knees into his back and beat him in the face so we can all see the cowards that they really are. If they can do this without identifying themselves legally in America to anyone, illegal alien or not, we should all be afraid.

If these “agents” are so proud and justified in what they are doing, why the masks and very unclear identification of who they really are or who they represent? In Minnesota we were just traumatized with the slaying of Melissa Hortman and her husband by a man “dressed up” as a police officer, so we are a little wary of unidentified authorities with guns. Also, this administration claims these arrests are all rapist and murderers or MS-13 members. If this were true, we would be seeing their RAP sheets with all the crimes they have committed. Instead, what we are really witnessing is good hard-working people who are seeking a better life, like my Norwegian grandparents, getting brutally rounded up and hidden away. These masked abductions can only be seen as terror tactics as well as a national disgrace.

Greg Kvaal, Mendota Heights

 

Sainted

To all who prepared and planned the funeral at the Basilica last Saturday: it was a beautiful and reverent send-off for the Hortmans.

The music, the choir, the sermon, the intentions, and the rite of the Mass — every detail was thoughtfully executed. It was a moving presentation of the Catholic Church, capturing both the intention of the Mass and the deeper story of our Catholic faith.

Thank you for such a meaningful tribute.

Leah Shiely Swenson, Lilydale

Edward Lotterman

U.S. agriculture is on the brink of a financial shakeout that will be the worse since the farm crisis of the 1980s. This is largely ignored, even by many farmers, but the monster won’t stay under the table much longer.

The problem is that farmland prices have risen, in steps, to unsustainable levels just as farm commodity prices are set to fall because of a U.S.-initiated trade war against the rest of the world.

The Russia-Ukraine war’s adjustment from an acute problem to a chronic one also pushed prices down. So has the dramatic growth of corn production in competitor Brazil along with continued growth in that country’s soybean output.

The rise in land prices initially was due to two factors: First, values started going up in 2005 in response to a “global commodity price super-cycle” driven by exports to a booming China. This product price boom continued to about 2012. Second, ultra-low interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve after the 2008 real estate debacle further boosted cropland prices even as commodity prices ebbed back toward earlier trend levels.

Grain and oilseed prices did retract a bit as China reacted to Trump’s tariffs on its exports after 2017. But the Fed turbocharging money growth in response to COVID flooded the farm economy with readily available land and operating loans at low rates. The first Trump administration also had laid out tens of billions in subsidies to crop producers to compensate them for any losses due to trade skirmishes. Much subsequent research shows these payments “overcompensated” farmers. The payments they got were greater than their losses in the market. That further motivated bidding on land.

Then, on top of all these boom-causing factors, Vladimir Putin unleashed his “special military operation” on Ukraine in February 2022. It soon became the worst European war in 80 years. Both Russia and Ukraine are major crop producers and exporters. Farm shipments from both must cross the Black Sea as must phosphate fertilizer exports from Russia that are vital, for example, for growing crops on the most common soil types in Brazil and elsewhere.

This had multiple impacts all happening at once. Commodity prices had their fastest and highest spike in decades. Field crop farming became frenzied. Rental rates rose. Farmers paid “liquidated damages” to the USDA to revoke Conservation Reserve Program contracts freeing millions in additional crop acres. Sales prices for the small numbers of farms put on sale spiked. Farmers snapped up new combines and tractors that had sat idle on dealer lots five years earlier.

But now, not only is all that drawing to a close, but a financial chasm looms. Interest rates are higher than in 2022. Long-term ones are more likely to rise than fall as bond markets react to ever-increasing U.S. deficits. Rather than being in a trade war with one importing country, we are now at war with the whole world. Our competitive nations now gleefully scramble for our usual customers. And the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending.

What in economics helps us understand all of this?

Let’s go back to the early 19th century with the fundamental insights of David Ricardo, the most important classical economist after Adam Smith. His thoughts still form the basis of all trade theory and most finance.

Ricardo defined the relationship between the annual net income from an investment asset, the interest rate, and the value of that asset. It’s a simple equation: the annual income divided by the interest rate equals the value of the asset.

Say you get $100 in net rent from an acre of land and the interest rate is 4%, then $100 divided by .04 gives a value of $2,500 for the acre. The same thing is true for a financial asset like a bond you can own in perpetuity, as was common in the early 1800s. The lower the interest rate, the greater the market value from a given annual income. That is the primary reason why land prices rose as the Fed drove interest rates down 15 years ago. But inversely, it also means that if rates now rise, land prices will fall. With the federal budget deficit and thus the national debt set to rise with votes in Congress this week, market forces will force long-term interest rates, like those on farm mortgages, even higher.

A second insight comes from Julius Nyerere, the Tanzanian schoolteacher and president who led his country to independence from the United Kingdom. In the 1950s, he and leftist economists argued that the prices of primary products — grains, metals, fuels and timber — inevitably fell relative to the prices of manufactured products like tractors or computers. This argument was disputed in the 1950s and still is. But it seems to be true for U.S. farm products.

In November 1971, my first harvest after getting out of the Army, we sold corn out of the field to a neighbor at 97 cents a bushel, the price at the local elevator. One can get $4.02 a bushel from the same grain dealer today. Yet adjusted by the Consumer Price Index over the same period, 97 cents in November 1971 would equal $7.48 today. Yes, for a few fevered months in late 2021, the inflation-adjusted corn price had hit $7.50, topping a half century earlier. But if you plot inflation-adjusted corn prices from 1925 to 2025, the trend is clearly downward.

I also remember my cousin enthusiastically telling me the milk price had hit $13 per hundred pounds for the first time. It is $18.42 for Minnesota-Wisconsin this week. But my cousin died in 1986. Adjusted for inflation, $13 forty years ago would be about $41 now, over twice what the current price is.

Of course, productivity has risen both in crops and livestock. An hour of labor produces much more milk or corn than decades ago. But producers should be careful not to respond to short-term price spikes from exogenous shocks like war by locking in the long-term fixed costs of expensive land.

Many are not cautious. That leads to the crunch we see forming.

An excellent farm in Rock County, the southwestern-most in our state, recently sold for $14,000 an acre. The price had been $105 an acre in 1940 and about $750 in 1970. USDA lists the current interest rate on farm mortgages at 5.875%. So the annual interest cost per acre on this farm will be $822.50 per acre. The average corn yield for Rock County has hit 202 bushels per acre. One can contract to sell at a local elevator this November for $3.98 a bushel or $803.96 an acre. So a good crop this year won’t even pay the interest due, much less seed, fertilizer, diesel fuel, labor or other variable costs. See the math? Thus deep problems loom, but need their own explanation.

Related Articles

Real World Economics: Fed up? Delusions about the central bank continue

Real World Economics: Storm clouds gathering for a new farm crisis  

Real World Economics: Bonds Part 2: How this affects us

Real World Economics: Bond primer part 1: Understanding the market

Real World Economics: Pragmatism, not globalist ideology, drove U.S. trade policy

St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at stpaul@edlotterman.com.

By JIM VERTUNO, JULIO CORTEZ and JOHN SEEWER

KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha says that 11 campers and a camp counselor are still missing after powerful floods inundated central Texas.

Dozens of people have been killed since raging floodwaters slammed a portion of central Texas starting Friday.

The death toll from flash floods rose to nearly 70 on Sunday after searchers found more more bodies in the hardest-hit Kerr County. The victims include children who were camping along the Guadalupe River banks.

Officials have said they will not stop searching until every person is found.

Most of the deaths coming in Kerr County in the state’s Hill Country. Besides the 59 dead in Kerr County — 38 adults and 21 children — additional deaths were reported in Travis, Burnet and Kendall counties.

Rescuers dealt with broken trees, overturned cars and muck-filled debris in a difficult task to find survivors. Authorities still have not said how many people were missing beyond the children from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp where most of the dead were recovered.

With each passing hour, the outlook became more bleak. Volunteers and some families of the missing who drove to the disaster zone began searching the riverbanks despite being asked not to do so.

Authorities faced growing questions about whether enough warnings were issued in area long vulnerable to flooding and whether enough preparations were made.

The destructive, fast-moving waters rose 26 feet (8 meters) on the river in only 45 minutes before daybreak Friday, washing away homes and vehicles. The danger was not over as flash flood watches remained in effect and more rain fell in central Texas on Sunday.

Searchers used helicopters, boats and drones to look for victims and to rescue people stranded in trees and from camps isolated by washed-out roads. Officials said more than 850 people were rescued in the first 36 hours.

A day of prayers in Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott vowed that authorities will work around the clock and said new areas were being searched as the water receded. He declared Sunday a day of prayer for the state.

“I urge every Texan to join me in prayer this Sunday — for the lives lost, for those still missing, for the recovery of our communities, and for the safety of those on the front lines,” he said in a statement.

In Rome, Pope Leo XIV offered special prayers for those touched by the disaster. History’s first American pope spoke in English at the end of his Sunday noon blessing, “I would like to express sincere condolences to all the families who have lost loved ones, in particular their daughters who were in summer camp, in the disaster caused by the flooding of the Guadalupe River in Texas in the United States. We pray for them.”

The hills along the Guadalupe River are dotted with century-old youth camps and campgrounds where generations of families have come to swim and enjoy the outdoors. The area is especially popular around the Independence Day holiday, making it more difficult to know how many are missing.

“We don’t even want to begin to estimate at this time,” Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said on Saturday.

Harrowing escapes from floodwaters

Survivors shared terrifying stories of being swept away and clinging to trees as rampaging floodwaters carried trees and cars past them. Others fled to attics inside their homes, praying the water wouldn’t reach them.

At Camp Mystic, a cabin full of girls held onto a rope strung by rescuers as they walked across a bridge with water whipping around their legs.

Among those confirmed dead were an 8-year-old girl from Mountain Brook, Alabama, who was at Camp Mystic, and the director of another camp up the road.

Locals know the area as “ flash flood alley” but the flooding in the middle of the night caught many campers and residents by surprise even though there were warnings.

Warnings came before the disaster

The National Weather Service on Thursday advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare alert notifying of imminent danger.

At the Mo-Ranch Camp in the community of Hunt, officials had been monitoring the weather and opted to move several hundred campers and attendees at a church youth conference to higher ground. At nearby Camps Rio Vista and Sierra Vista, organizers also had mentioned on social media that they were watching the weather the day before ending their second summer session Thursday.

Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months’ worth of rain for the area.

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, whose district includes the ravaged area, acknowledged that there would be second-guessing and finger-pointing as people look for someone to blame.

___

Cortez reported from Hunt, Texas, and Seewer from Toledo, Ohio. Associated Press writers Susan Haigh in Hartford, Connecticut, Susan Montoya Bryan in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed.