Federal Reserve likely to defy Trump, keep rates unchanged this week

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By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve will likely keep its key short-term interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, despite weeks of harsh criticism and demands from President Donald Trump that the Fed reduce borrowing costs.

After causing a sharp drop in financial markets two weeks ago by saying he could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Trump subsequently backed off and said he had no intention of doing so. Still, he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have said the Fed should cut rates.

They argue that inflation has steadily cooled and high borrowing costs are no longer needed to restrain price increases. The Fed sharply ramped up its short-term rate in 2022 and 2023 as pandemic-era inflation spiked.

Separately, Elon Musk, the head of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, last Wednesday suggested that DOGE should look more closely at the Fed’s spending on its facilities.

The heightened scrutiny shows that even as the Trump administration backs off its threats to fire Powell, the Fed is still subject to unusually sharp political pressures, despite its status as an independent agency.

FILE – In this July 31, 2019, file photo, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)

Even so, the Fed will almost certainly leave its key rate unchanged at about 4.3% when it meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Powell and many of the other 18 officials that sit on the Fed’s rate-setting committee have said they want to see how Trump’s tariffs affect the economy before making any moves.

Trump, however, on Friday said on the social media platform Truth Social that there is “NO INFLATION” and claimed that grocery and egg prices have fallen, and that gas has dropped to $1.98 a gallon.

That’s not entirely true: Grocery prices have jumped 0.5% in two of the past three months and are up 2.4% from a year ago. Gas and oil prices have declined — gas costs are down 10% from a year ago — continuing a longer-running trend that has continued in part because of fears the economy will weaken. Still, AAA says gas prices nationwide average $3.18 a gallon.

Inflation did drop noticeably in March, an encouraging sign, though in the first three months of the year it was 3.6%, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, well above its 2% target.

Without tariffs, economists say it’s possible the Fed would soon reduce its benchmark rate, because it is currently at a level intended to slow borrowing and spending and cool inflation. Yet the Fed can’t now cut rates with Trump’s broad tariffs likely to raise prices in the coming months.

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY, said that the Fed is “scarred” by what happened in 2021, when prices rose amid supply snarls and Powell and other Fed officials said the increase would likely be “transitory.” Instead, inflation soared to a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

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This time they will be more cautious, he said.

“That’s a Fed that is going to have to wait for evidence and be slow to adjust on that evidence,” Reinhart said.

Plus, Trump’s badgering of Powell makes it harder for the Fed chair to cut rates because doing so anytime soon would be seen as knuckling under to the White House, said Preston Mui, an economist at Employ America.

“You could imagine a world where there isn’t pressure from the Trump administration and they cut rates … sooner, because they feel comfortable making the argument that they’re doing so because of the data,” he said.

For his part, Powell said last month that tariffs would likely push up inflation and slow the economy, a tricky combination for the Fed. The central bank would typically raise rates — or at least keep them elevated — to fight inflation, while it would cut them to spur the economy if unemployment rose.

Powell has said that the impact of the tariffs on inflation could be temporary — a one-time price increase — but most recently said it “could also be more persistent.” That suggests that Powell will want to wait, potentially for months, to ensure tariffs don’t sustainably raise inflation before considering a rate cut.

Some economists forecast the Fed won’t cut rates until its September meeting, or even later.

Yet Fed officials could move sooner if the tariffs hit the economy hard enough to cause layoffs and push up unemployment. Wall Street investors appear to expect such an outcome — they project that the first cut will occur in July, according to futures pricing.

Separately, Musk criticized the Fed Wednesday for spending $2.5 billion on an extensive renovation of two of its buildings in Washington, D.C.

“Since at the end of the day, this is all taxpayer money, we should certainly look to see if indeed the Federal Reserve is spending $2.5 billion on their interior designer,” Musk said. “That’s an eyebrow raiser.”

Fed officials acknowledge that the cost of the renovations have risen as prices for building materials and labor have spiked amid the post-pandemic inflation. And former Fed officials, speaking on background, say that local regulations forced the Fed to do more of the expansion underground, rather than making the buildings taller, which added to the cost.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and a potential candidate to replace Powell as chair when Powell’s term expires next year, said recently that the Fed has attracted greater scrutiny because of its failure to keep prices in check.

“The Fed’s current wounds are largely self-inflicted,” he said in a speech during an International Monetary Fund conference in late April, in which he also slammed the Fed for participating in a global forum on climate change. “A strategic reset is necessary to mitigate losses of credibility, changes in standing, and most important, worse economic outcomes for our fellow citizens.”

Powell, for his part, said last month that “Fed independence is very widely understood and supported in Washington, in Congress, where it really matters.”

Book review: ‘Awakened’ is a breath of fresh air in the world of modern magic novels

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By DONNA EDWARDS, Associated Press

Wilder wakes up one day suddenly able to speak and understand every language. But what seems like a wicked-cool ability turns out to be overwhelming in the endless stream of words flowing through the streets of New York. Fortunately, there’s a tiny coven of witches ready to take Wilder under their wing and help them control their Power.

Upon reading the first few chapters, one might think A. E. Osworth’s sophomore novel, “Awakened,” is about capital-m Magic or trans people or found family. And they wouldn’t be wrong. But it also turns out to be about artificial intelligence and personal growth. Then throw in tarot cards, moral dilemmas and unrequited love.

Dedicated to “everyone who feels betrayed by J.K. Rowling,” this novel is at once very like “Harry Potter” and totally, undeniably its own thing.

“Awakened” is clearly aimed at adults and older teens — the novel has F-bombs, jobs that get in the way of adventures, drag shows and even one spicy sex scene — but it’s told with that nostalgic voice of childhood magic and fantasy stories, in a present-tense that sometimes veers into other realities, paths characters could have gone on, amplifying the fairytale feel.

It takes a couple of chapters to really get going, but after that it’s hard not to get swept up — at first in the mystery and magic, then in the characters.

In “Awakened,” Magic isn’t exactly a science. There are no textbooks or Hogwarts, and everyone’s Power is different: Quibble can rip through time-space, granting him near-teleportation-level travel abilities. Artemis can see Magic, allowing her to pinpoint when a witch has Awakened. And Mary Margaret has a pocket dimension with which she can easily “liberate” items, a power the kleptomaniacal teen can’t help but take immense advantage of.

Osworth personifies their characters through actions, clothes and inner thoughts, like Artemis walking down the street like she’s listening to metal when she is really listening to NPR. Honest near to cruelty, the omniscient narrator often unceremoniously peels a character’s actions back to reveal their psyche and the emotional damage — or healing — that got them there.

Then, in an excellent twist near the end of the first act, we actually meet the narrator. This is not the first nor the last satisfying surprise, but this is about the time the novel shifts from whimsical, funny modern fantasy to creepy, horrific sci-fi.

“Awakened” is a story of enormous heart, and it’s not only for those burned by former literary heroes; it’s also for those who need a reminder of what it’s like to see childlike wonder as an adult navigating a sometimes cruel world. For those who love massively multiplayer role-playing games but are turned off by the rampant misogyny that tends to overtake those spaces. Or, honestly, for people who just want a fresh, modern take on a magical quest. Osworth’s writing is captivating and luscious, full of Easter eggs and savory balance of sensory descriptions, exciting adventure, lifelike dialogue and gratifying revelations.

“Awakened” was recently released from Grand Central Publishing.

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs sex trafficking trial is set to start with jury selection

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NEW YORK (AP) — Sean “Diddy” Combs, the hip-hop entrepreneur whose wildly successful career has been dotted by allegations of violence, will be brought to a New York courthouse Monday to be tried on charges that he used the influence and resources of his business empire to sexually abuse women.

Jury selection is scheduled to begin in the morning and potentially take several days. Opening statements by the lawyers and the start of testimony is expected next week.

The 17-page indictment against Combs reads like a charging document filed against a Mafia leader or the head of a drug gang, accusing him of engaging in sex trafficking and presiding over a racketeering conspiracy.

The indictment says that with the help of people in his entourage and employees from his network of businesses, Combs engaged in a two-decade pattern of abusive behavior against women and others.

Women were manipulated into participating in drug-fueled sexual performances with male sex workers that Combs called “Freak Offs,” prosecutors say.

To keep women in line, prosecutors say Combs used a mix of influence and violence: He offered to boost their entertainment careers if they did what he asked — or cut them off if they didn’t.

And when he wasn’t getting what he wanted, the indictment says Combs and his associates resorted to violent acts including beatings, kidnapping and arson. Once, the indictment alleges, he even dangled someone from a balcony.

Combs and his lawyers say he is innocent.

Any group sex was consensual, they say. There was no effort to coerce people into things they didn’t want to do, and nothing that happened amounted to a criminal racket, they said.

The trial is expected to take at least eight weeks.

Combs, 55, has acknowledged one episode of violence that is likely to be featured in the trial. In 2016, a security camera recorded him beating up his former girlfriend, the R&B singer Cassie, in the hallway of a Los Angeles hotel. Cassie filed a lawsuit in late 2023 saying Combs had subjected her to years of abuse, including beatings and rape.

The Associated Press does not typically name people who say they have been sexually abused unless they come forward publicly, as Cassie, whose legal name is Casandra Ventura, did.

Combs’ attorney, Marc Agnifilo has said Combs was “not a perfect person” and that there had been drug use and toxic relationships, but said that all sexual activity between Combs, Cassie and other people was consensual.

The trial is the latest and most serious in a long string of legal problems for Combs.

In 1999 he was charged with bursting into the offices of an Interscope Records executive with his bodyguards and beating him with a champagne bottle and a chair. The executive, Steve Stoute, later asked prosecutors to go easy on Combs, who pleaded guilty to a lesser charge and took an anger management class.

Later that same year, Combs was stopped by police after he and his then-girlfriend, Jennifer Lopez, fled a nightclub where three people were wounded by gunfire. Combs was acquitted of all charges related to the incident at a 2001 trial, but a rapper in his entourage, Jamal “Shyne” Barrow, was convicted in the shooting and served nearly nine years in prison.

Then in 2015, Combs was charged with assaulting someone with a weight-room kettlebell at the University of California, Los Angeles, where one of his sons played football. Combs said he was defending himself and prosecutors dropped the case.

Now, Combs faces his most serious case yet.

If convicted, he faces the possibility of decades in prison.

Ahead of the conclave, the Vatican staff is to be sworn to secrecy under threat of excommunication

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By VANESSA GERA, Associated Press

VATICAN CITY (AP) — Cleaners and cooks. Doctors and nurses. Even drivers and elevator operators.

All the support staff for the cardinals who will elect the successor to Pope Francis are taking an oath of secrecy on Monday ahead of the conclave that’s starting on Wednesday.

The punishment for breaking the oath? Automatic excommunication.

In this image taken on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, and made available Saturday, May 3, 2025, by Vatican Media, workers and restorers prepare the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican, where the upcoming conclave will start May 7. (Vatican Media via AP)

The oath-taking is being held in the Pauline Chapel at the Vatican for all those assigned to the upcoming conclave. They include clerics in support roles, including confessors speaking various languages. The cardinals themselves will take their oath on Wednesday in the Sistine Chapel, before they cast their first ballots.

But an array of laypeople are also required to house and feed the cardinals. A conclave’s duration cannot be predicted — and it will only be known when white smoke rises out of the Sistine Chapel chimney to signal a winner.

All those people will be sequestered to be on hand for any medical needs, and maintain the majestic beauty appropriate for the election of the next head of the 1.4 billion strong Catholic Church.

The oath

The provisions for the oath-taking are laid down in Vatican law.

St. John Paul II rewrote the regulations on papal elections in a 1996 document that remains largely in force, though Pope Benedict XVI amended it twice before he resigned in 2013. He tightened the oath of secrecy, making clear that anyone who reveals what went on inside the conclave faces automatic excommunication.

In John Paul’s rules, excommunication was always a possibility, but Benedict revised the oath that liturgical assistants and secretaries take to make it explicit, saying they must observe “absolute and perpetual secrecy” and explicitly refrain from using any audio or video recording devices.

They now declare that they: “Promise and swear that, unless I should receive a special faculty given expressly by the newly elected pontiff or by his successors, I will observe absolute and perpetual secrecy with all who are not part of the College of Cardinal electors concerning all matters directly or indirectly related to the ballots cast and their scrutiny for the election of the Supreme Pontiff.

“I likewise promise and swear to refrain from using any audio or video equipment capable of recording anything which takes place during the period of the election within Vatican City, and in particular anything which in any way, directly or indirectly, is related to the process of the election itself.

“I take this oath fully aware that an infraction thereof will incur the penalty of automatic excommunication reserved to the Apostolic See. So help me God and these Holy Gospels, which I touch with my hand.”

Preparations underway

The Sistine Chapel has already undergone a week-long transformation following the funeral of Pope Francis, who died on April 21 at age 88.

Technicians installed a floating floor to level out the space and make way for ceremonial furnishings, including tables for the electors and their aides, which are draped by Vatican upholsterers.

The famous stove used to signal the voting outcomes was placed in its designated corner, a placement dictated by protocol, and firefighters installed the chimney on the roof.

Firefighters place the chimney on the roof of the Sistine Chapel, where cardinals will gather to elect the new pope, at the Vatican, Friday, May 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia)

Twelve technicians and maintenance craftsmen will remain inside for the duration, maintaining temperature, lighting, and electrical systems, and assisting with ceremonial logistics like operating the stove, the Vatican City State administration said.

As tradition dictates, all windows in the conclave zone are darkened to guarantee privacy. Nearly 80 access points around the perimeter are sealed with lead on the eve of the conclave.

A colonel and a major of the Pontifical Swiss Guard Corps are among those taking the oath — they will be responsible for surveillance near the Sistine Chapel, the frescoed Renaissance jewel where 133 cardinal electors will be voting.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.