Missing government data unlikely to sway Federal Reserve from rate-cut path

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By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its short-term rate Wednesday for the second time this year despite an increasingly cloudy view of the economy it is trying to influence.

A seal is seen before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell walks out to speak during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The government shutdown has cut off the flow of data that the Fed relies on to track employment, inflation, and the broader economy. September’s jobs report, scheduled for release three weeks ago, is still postponed. This month’s hiring figures, to be released Nov. 7, will likely be delayed and may be less comprehensive when they are finally released. And the White House said last week that October’s inflation report may never be issued at all.

The data drought raises risks for the Fed because it is widely expected to keep cutting rates in an effort to shore up growth and hiring. Fed officials signaled at their last meeting in September that they would likely implement rate reductions in October and December, and financial markets now consider a cut in December to be a near-certainty.

Yet should job gains pick up soon, the Fed may not detect the change. And if hiring rebounds after weak job gains during the summer, further rate cuts may not be justified.

On Tuesday, payroll processor ADP released a new weekly measure of hiring by businesses, using payroll data from millions of clients. It shows that in late September and earlier this month, companies resumed adding jobs, after shedding workers in July and August.

Still, a key reason rate cuts are so widely expected is that most Fed officials see its key rate, which is now about 4.1%, to be high enough that it is restraining the economy’s growth. Under this view, the Fed can cut several more times before reaching a level that might provide unnecessary stimulus to the economy.

Before the government shutdown cut off the flow of data Oct. 1, monthly hiring gains had weakened to an average of just 29,000 a month for the previous three months, according to the Labor Department’s data. The unemployment rate ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July.

Meanwhile, last week’s inflation report — released more than a week late because of the shutdown — showed that inflation remains elevated but isn’t accelerating and may not need higher interest rates to tame it.

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The government’s first report on the economy’s growth in the July-September quarter was scheduled to be published on Thursday, but will be delayed, as will Friday’s report on consumer spending that also includes the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Fed officials say they are monitoring a range of other data, including some issued by the private sector, and don’t feel handicapped by the lack of government reports.

Also on Wednesday, the central bank may announce that it will no longer reduce the size of its massive securities holdings, which it accumulated during and after the pandemic and after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. The change could over time slightly reduce longer-term interest rates on things like mortgages but aren’t likely to have a major impact on consumer borrowing costs.

The Fed purchased nearly $5 trillion of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds from 2020 to 2022 to stabilize financial markets during the pandemic and keep longer-term interest rates low. The bond-buying lifted its securities holdings to $9 trillion.

When the central bank buys a Treasury note, for example, it pays for it with newly-created money that is deposited into reserve accounts banks hold at the Fed.

In the past three years, however, the Fed has reduced its holdings to about $6.6 trillion. To shrink its holdings, the Fed lets securities mature without replacing them, reducing bank reserves. The risk is if it reduces its holdings too far, short-term interest rates could spike as banks borrow money to top-up their reserves.

In 2019, the Fed was reducing its balance sheet and caused a sharp, unexpected spike in short-term rates that disrupted financial markets, an outcome they want to avoid this time.

The Fed currently is reducing its holdings of mortgage-backed securities by up to $35 billion a month and Treasuries by just $5 billion a month. Powell said two weeks ago that the Fed would consider ending the rolloff “in coming months,” but analysts now expect it to happen sooner because of recent signs that banks are running low on reserves.

US government allowed and even helped US firms sell tech used for surveillance in China, AP finds

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By GARANCE BURKE, DAKE KANG and BYRON TAU, Associated Press

U.S. lawmakers have tried four times since September last year to close what they called a glaring loophole: China is getting around export bans on the sale of powerful American AI chips by renting them through U.S. cloud services instead.

FILE – A Chinese national flag flutters near surveillance cameras mounted on a lamp post in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, Friday, March 15, 2019. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)

But the proposals prompted a flurry of activity from more than 100 lobbyists from tech companies and their trade associations trying to weigh in, according to disclosure reports.

The result: All four times, the proposal failed, including just last month.

As leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for a long-heralded meeting Thursday, the sale of U.S. technology to China is among the thorniest issues the U.S. faces, with billions of dollars and the future of tech dominance at stake. But the tough talk about China obscures a deeper story: Even while warning about national security and human rights abuse, the U.S. government across five Republican and Democratic administrations has repeatedly allowed and even actively helped American firms to sell technology to Chinese police, government agencies and surveillance companies, an Associated Press investigation has found.

And time after time, despite bipartisan attempts, Congress has turned a blind eye to loopholes that allow China to work around its own rules, such as cloud services, third-party resellers, and holes in sanctions passed after the Tiananmen massacre. For example, despite U.S. export rules around advanced chips, China bought $20.7 billion worth of chipmaking equipment from U.S. companies in 2024 to bolster its homegrown industry, a report from a congressional committee this month warned.

This reluctance to act reflects the tremendous wealth and power of the tech industry, which is more visible than ever under the Trump administration. And in recent months, the president himself has struck grand deals with Silicon Valley firms that even more closely tie the U.S. economy to tech exports to China, giving taxpayers a direct stake in the profits for the first time.

In August, Trump announced a deal with chipmakers Nvidia and AMD to lift export controls on sales of advanced chips to China in exchange for a 15% cut of the revenue, despite concerns from national security experts that such chips will end up in the hands of Chinese military and intelligence services. That same month, Trump announced that the U.S. government had taken a 10 percent stake in Intel worth around $11 billion.

Longtime Chinese activist Zhou Fengsuo said the U.S. government is letting American companies set the agenda and ignoring how they help Beijing surveil and censor its own people. In 1989, Zhou was a student leader during the Tiananmen protests, where hundreds and possibly thousands were shot and killed by the Chinese government. Zhou was arrested and imprisoned.

Zhou Fengsuo, a Chinese activist who was a student leader during the 1989 Tiananmen protests, poses for a portrait during an International Federation for Human Rights meeting in Bogota, Colombia, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia)

Now a U.S. citizen, Zhou testified before Congress in 2024, calling on Washington to investigate the involvement of American tech companies in Chinese surveillance. An AP investigation in September found that American companies to a large degree designed and built China’s surveillance state, playing a far greater role in enabling human rights abuses than previously known.

“It’s driven by profit, and that’s why these strategic discussions have been silenced or delayed,” Zhou said. “I’m extremely disappointed. … this is a strategic failure by the United States.”

Hundreds of millions in lobbying

The sale of technology to China is contentious among both Republicans and Democrats, with some arguing for a harder stance.

They are fighting a powerful opponent. An AP analysis of lobbying filings showed U.S. tech and telecom companies, as well as their trade associations, spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past two decades on lobbyists who listed key bills impacting China-related trade on their quarterly disclosure reports, among other issues.

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Tech companies argue that further export restrictions will push China to develop its own domestic supply and strengthen its position in the global race for leadership in artificial intelligence.

“Continuing to ban U.S. computing from commercial markets only benefits foreign competition and undercuts President Trump’s efforts to create jobs, reduce the trade deficit, and grow the economy,” Nvidia said in a statement.

Nvidia has also said that it does not make surveillance systems or software, does not work with police in China and has not designed its H20 AI chip for police surveillance.

Intel, which partnered with a Chinese fingerprinting company as recently as last year, has said the company follows export control policies, and did not address details of its deal with the U.S. government.

“The U.S. government’s investment is a passive ownership, with no board representation, governance or information rights,” Intel said in a statement.

AMD did not respond. The White House and the Commerce and State departments also did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

The AP investigation was based on dozens of open record requests, hundreds of pages of congressional testimony, lobbying disclosures and dozens of interviews with current and former Chinese and American executives, politicians, and former federal officials.

Under the cloud services loophole, Chinese companies barred from accessing cutting-edge chips can use Microsoft Azure or Amazon Web Services overseas instead to train their AI models. Microsoft and AWS also both advertise the capacity to store video surveillance footage on their cloud services for Chinese customers.

For example, SDIC Contech, a state-owned tech company that works with AI, sought access to AWS and Microsoft Azure big data analytics services, procurement bids show. And Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, a government-backed research institute working on sensitive technologies such as encryption, sought access to $280,000 worth of Azure OpenAI cloud services from Microsoft.

Even sanctioned Chinese companies can use AWS and Microsoft Azure to offer surveillance abilities to customers overseas. For example, despite U.S. sanctions over human rights abuses in Xinjiang in 2019, Dahua and Hikvision, China’s two largest surveillance companies, use AWS to offer networked surveillance abroad, according to marketing material on the company websites. Hikvision markets a video surveillance platform called “HikCentral” to private companies overseas, which can be also deployed on Azure, according to a post on Hikvision’s website this year.

FILE – Visitors stand in line at a booth for Amazon cloud computing services at the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) in Beijing, Friday, Sept. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)

Microsoft denied providing services to Hikvision or partnering with them to provide services to others. OpenAI, which provides its advanced AI models through Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform, said it was subject to Microsoft’s policies and doesn’t support China access to its services. AWS did not respond on the record to questions about the cloud services loophole.

Another enduring loophole is in the restrictions passed after the Tiananmen massacre that didn’t include newer policing technologies, such as security cameras, surveillance drives, or facial recognition systems. In 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2013, lawmakers introduced bills to try and close the loophole. All failed.

The U.S. government under both Republican and Democratic presidents has made other attempts to regulate tech surveillance exports to China. In 2008, the Department of Commerce asked for comment on whether to include “biometric devices” and “integrated security systems” under controlled exports, but ran out of time before the next administration came in. In 2014 and 2015, it tried to tighten controls on surveillance products, but most fell through. In 2024, it sought to restrict exports of face-recognition systems and bar many more military, police, and intelligence end users from receiving U.S. goods, with no success.

Some politicians on both sides of the aisle blame the failures in part on the money and political influence of tech companies.

“I think we’ve been naive or complicit in the extreme,” said New Jersey GOP Rep. Chris Smith. The U.S., he said, has been “selling and conveying to a malevolent power the ability to destroy us and destroy like-minded Western democracies.”

Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., speaks about China during an interview in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

“What do all those companies all have in common? A big wallet,” said Ron Wyden, a Democratic senator from Oregon. “That is as much as anything is what’s behind the fact we haven’t made as much progress.”

A history of failures to close loopholes

The first round of U.S. prohibitions on Chinese police came after the Tiananmen massacre and applied to “crime control and detection” equipment. They largely stopped U.S. companies from exporting goods to Chinese entities such as restraints, helmets, shields and batons.

But the controls were narrowly confined to largely low-tech goods, leaving out advanced technologies that could be used by police and leading at times to puzzling priorities. U.S. regulators warned sex shops against shipping novelty gold handcuffs to China. At the same time, they broadly permitted Silicon Valley companies to sell routers, servers, software, and more recently, AI-powered surveillance systems to Chinese police.

For example, despite explicit restrictions on fingerprint recognition systems, U.S. companies still were able to sell gear to process, store and compare fingerprints.

In 2006, with bipartisan support, Smith introduced the Global Online Freedom Act to curtail the involvement of American tech companies in Chinese surveillance. Smith drew parallels with IBM’s sale of computing gear to Nazi Germany, which has been well documented by historians. IBM told AP in a follow-up statement that the claim that IBM knowingly collaborated with Nazi Germany was “false and has been rejected by credible historians.”

Associations representing the tech and telecommunications industries and dozens of companies stepped up their lobbying against Smith’s proposal, disclosures show. The companies argued the computers, servers and routers they sold in China were no different from what they sold to other countries. Industry groups and individual companies also submitted hundreds of comments to regulators, hoping to influence China-related export regulations.

Smith’s bill went nowhere.

“Money talks … When they flood certain members on strategic committees with the money, PAC money and the like, how much easier it is to listen to their narrative that somehow they’re part of the reform?” said Smith.

Tech sales to China continued, sometimes with direct government support. Numerous archived webpages show that the U.S. Commercial Service, the export-promoting arm of the Commerce Department, played a crucial role for more than a decade in connecting U.S. vendors to Chinese security agencies and key government officials, including through its marquee Gold Key Matching service.

In 2004, the Commercial Service invited American companies selling security technologies and equipment to show off their products at a Chinese security exposition. Two years later, it advertised opportunities for American firms in the “safety and security” market, followed by another publication later describing market opportunities for foreign security products such as inspection control and guard communication systems. Archived webpages also show that under both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations, the Commercial Service steadily promoted U.S. participation in policing trade shows, even those that showcased “biological identification technologies” or were initiated by the Chinese Communist Party.

Under Bush, the Commerce Department in 2007 hosted a webinar about how to sell to the Chinese security market and promote surveillance tools to China’s public sector. For just $35, the federal agency could offer attendees “market entry-strategies and long-term market penetration plans,” an archived webpage shows.

Jeanette Chu, who then worked at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and helped give the 2007 webinar, recalled sometimes having concerns.

“I used to ask myself all the time, ‘what is the scary potential of each item?’” said Chu, now a national security and trade expert advising industry.

Despite promises to nail shut Washington’s revolving door, President Barack Obama — like presidents before and after him — gave former industry lobbyists and allies top jobs, including Eric Hirschhorn in the Commerce Department, who represented a trade group that lobbied for tech companies exporting abroad. Hirschhorn wrote that Beijing’s surveillance abilities were nothing compared to the half-million surveillance cameras blanketing London. He was put in charge of the office that administers U.S. export controls.

In an interview, Hirschhorn said export controls alone were an inefficient way to defend human rights.

“You can use a computer to type an order or type a love note,” he told AP. “Are you not going to sell computers to China because one out of every 10,000 of them will be used to store data about a dissident?”

In 2010, the U.S. State Department’s human rights report warned of “police surveillance, harassment and detentions of activists.” Yet U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman led a mission to promote American business interests in the far-west region of Xinjiang, where authorities had arrested thousands of ethnic Uyghurs and cut internet access after deadly unrest the year before. Huntsman did not respond to requests for comment.

That same year, the Commercial Service spotlighted opportunities for U.S. companies to sell equipment directly to China’s central government “ to install a city-wide infrastructure of security, surveillance, and alarm systems ” on its website.

A 2015 State Department draft plan for “smart city” cooperation obtained by AP proposed that China and the U.S. collaborate on joint research, such as on crime and “urban security,” and include private sector players such IBM. Additional documents AP obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request show the U.S. government also sought active counter-terrorism cooperation with China, which gave tech companies a chance for closer contact with Chinese authorities even as Beijing broadly labelled protest or dissent among Uyghurs as terrorism.

Kevin Wolf, then an assistant secretary in charge of export controls at Commerce, said as news about human rights abuses inside China kept surfacing, he worried about U.S. innovations falling into the wrong hands. Wolf said he began drafting a rule to regulate certain surveillance gear sales in early 2016.

“The problem I was struggling with was, mass surveillance can involve everyday ordinary common items: it’s cameras, it’s software, it’s facial recognition stuff and 99 percent of all of those applications are perfectly benign,” said Wolf, now a compliance attorney for industry. “So if you were to say, ban cameras that can read someone’s face, you blow up international trade.”

Wolf’s colleagues told him the draft rule was too complicated, Wolf said, and it foundered.

In 2018, Congress passed the Export Control Reform Act, giving Commerce authority to make export control rules about advanced technologies. In 2019 and 2020, the Trump administration sanctioned some Chinese officials and surveillance firms over atrocities in Xinjiang. But sales of surveillance equipment continued, albeit at a slower pace — though references to working with the Chinese police would disappear from annual Commerce Department reports for U.S. industry.

In 2021, Joe Biden put out an executive order describing Chinese surveillance tech companies as “unusual and extraordinary threats” that enabled serious human rights abuses. In his final months in office, Biden’s administration drew up sprawling rules for exporting advanced computer chips used to develop AI systems. Commerce also floated an updated version of Wolf’s draft rule to keep facial recognition and other mass surveillance tools from reaching military and intelligence agencies and companies, including in China.

But once again, Washington lobbyists, lawyers and politicians pushed back. “The result would slow business considerably and likely result in the loss of customers that do not present any national security or human rights concerns,” said a Chamber of Commerce filing from late last year.

The proposed rule, in the end, stalled out.

Gulbahar Haitiwaji, an ethnic Uyghur living in France, says little has changed since she testified to Congress in 2023 urging the U.S. government to “stop American companies from continuing to be complicit in surveilling our people”.

FILE – Gulbahar Haitiwaji, an ethnic Uyghur who wrote a book about the experience of being held in two “re-education” camps and police stations in China for more than two years, is sworn in to testify during a special House committee hearing dedicated to countering China, Thursday, March 23, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

Haitiwaji was arrested and detained in internment camps in Xinjiang for more than two years, after policing systems based on U.S. technology led Chinese officers to identify her as a “terrorist.” She was under constant, excruciating surveillance, with cameras watching her even in the toilet. After she was released in 2019, she still found herself living in what she calls “an open-air prison,” with every move monitored, until she finally left Xinjiang later that year.

She said U.S. tech companies show little accountability.

“It’s truly disappointing that the United States, one of the most powerful countries in the world, would sell such technology to China despite knowing the potential for serious consequences,” Haitiwaji said.

Burke reported from San Francisco, Kang reported from Beijing and Tau reported from Washington. Former AP journalist Trenton Daniel contributed to this report from New York.

Trump scores golden gifts as United States and Seoul advance trade talks

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By CHRIS MEGERIAN, Associated Press

GYEONGJU, South Korea (AP) — The United States and South Korea advanced trade talks on Wednesday, addressing details of $350 billion that would be invested in the American economy, after negotiations and ceremonies that included the presentation of a gold medal and crown to President Donald Trump.

President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung walk in a welcome ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyeongju, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

Both were gifts from the country’s president, Lee Jae Myung, who dialed up the flattery while Washington and Seoul worked to nail down financial promises during the last stop of Trump’s Asia trip.

Although both sides said progress has been made — Trump said things were “pretty much finalized” — no agreement has been signed yet. The framework includes gradual investments, cooperation on shipbuilding and the lowering of Trump’s tariffs on South Korea’s automobile exports, according to Kim Yong-beom, Lee’s chief of staff for policy. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The announcement came after a day of adulation for the visiting American president from his hosts. There was a special lunch menu featuring U.S.-raised beef and a gold-adorned brownie. A band played Trump’s campaign anthem of “Y.M.C.A.” when he stepped off Air Force One. Lee told him that “you are indeed making America great again.”

Trump can be mercurial and demanding, but he has a soft spot for pomp and circumstance. He was particularly impressed by a choreographed display of colorful flags as he walked along the red carpet.

“That was some spectacle, and some beautiful scene,” Trump told Lee during their meeting. “It was so perfect, so flawlessly done.”

Earlier in the day, Trump even softened his rhetoric on international trade, which he normally describes in predatory terms where someone is always trying to rip off the United States.

“The best deals are deals that work for everybody,” he said during a business forum.

Washington and Seoul have been working on a trade deal

Trump was visiting while South Korea is hosting the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in the historical city of Gyeongju. He previously stopped in Japan, where he bonded with the new prime minister, and Malaysia, where he attended a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

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The Republican president has been trying to tie up trade deals along the way, eager to show that his confrontational approach of tariffs is paying dividends for Americans who are uneasy about the job market and watching a federal government shutdown extend into its fifth week.

However, South Korea has been particularly tough to crack, with the sticking point being Trump’s demand for $350 billion of direct investment in the U.S.

Korean officials say putting up cash could destabilize their own economy, and they’d rather offer loans and loan guarantees instead. The country would also need a swap line to manage the flow of its currency into the U.S.

Trump, after meeting with Lee, said “we made our deal pretty much finalized.” He did not provide any details.

Oh Hyunjoo, a deputy national security director for South Korea, told reporters earlier in the week that the negotiations have been proceeding “a little bit more slowly” than expected.

“We haven’t yet been able to reach an agreement on matters such as the structure of investments, their formats and how the profits will be distributed,” she said Monday.

It’s a contrast from Trump’s experience in Japan, where the government has worked to deliver the $550 billion in investments it promised as part of an earlier trade agreement. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced up to $490 billion in specific commitments during a dinner with business leaders in Tokyo.

For now, South Korea is stuck with a 25% tariff on automobiles, putting automakers such as Hyundai and Kia at a disadvantage against Japanese and European competitors, which face 15%.

Lee, speaking at the business forum before Trump arrived, warned against trade barriers.

“At a time when protectionism and nationalism are on the rise and nations focus on their immediate survival, words like ‘cooperation,’ ‘coexistence’ and ‘inclusive growth’ may sound hollow,” he said. “Yet, paradoxically, it is in times of crisis like this that APEC’s role as a platform for solidarity shines brighter.”

Trump and Lee swap praise despite disagreements

Lee took office in June and had a warm meeting with Trump at the White House in August, when he praised Oval Office renovations and suggested building a Trump Tower in North Korea.

President Donald Trump, center, and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, right, attend a high honor ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyoeongju, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

He took a similar approach when Trump visited on Wednesday. The gold medal presented to Trump represents the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, the country’s highest honor, and Trump is the first U.S. president to receive it.

Trump said “it’s as beautiful as it can possibly be” and “I’d like to wear it right now.”

Next was a replica of a royal crown from the Silla Kingdom, which existed from 57 B.C. to 935 A.D. The original crown was found in a tomb in Gyeongju, the kingdom’s capital.

Besides trade disagreements, there have been other points of tension between Washington and Seoul this year. More than 300 South Koreans were detained during a U.S. immigration raid on a Hyundai plant in Georgia in September, sparking a sense of outrage and betrayal.

Lee said at the time companies would likely hesitate to make future investments unless the visa system was improved.

“If that’s not possible, then establishing a local factory in the United States will either come with severe disadvantages or become very difficult for our companies,” he said.

Asked Monday about the immigration raid, Trump said, “I was opposed to getting them out,” and he said an improved visa system would make it easier for companies to bring in skilled workers.

Trump-Xi meeting is expected Thursday

While in South Korea, Trump is also expected to hold a closely watched meeting on Thursday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Washington and Beijing have clashed over trade, but both sides have indicated that they’re willing to dial down tensions.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday that he expects to lower tariffs targeting China over the flow of fentanyl ingredients.

“They’ll be doing what they can do,” he said. Trump added that “China is going to be working with me.”

Trump sounded resigned to the idea that he wouldn’t get to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on this trip. The president previously floated the possibility of extending his stay in South Korea, but on Wednesday said “the schedule was very tight.”

North Korea has so far dismissed overtures from Washington and Seoul, saying it won’t resume diplomacy with the United States unless Washington drops its demand for the North’s denuclearization. North Korea said Wednesday it fired sea-to-surface cruise missiles into its western waters, in the latest display of its growing military capabilities as Trump visits South Korea.

Trump brushed off the weapons test, saying “he’s been launching missiles for decades, right?”

The two leaders met during Trump’s first term, although their conversations did not produce any agreements about North Korea’s nuclear program.

Associated Press writers Kim Tong-hyung and Hyung-jin Kim contributed from Seoul, South Korea, and Josh Boak contributed from Tokyo.

The Loop Fantasy Football Report Week 9: Unlikely heroes are midseason MVPs

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When looking for candidates for the Most Valuable Players of fantasy football at this season’s midway point, the standouts who have most surpassed their preseason projections, one need to look no further than the Vikings’ bench.

That’s the 2024 Vikings’ bench … where Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones finished last season.

The former top prospect is a legit MVP candidate for the surprisingly 7-1 Colts. His 2,062 passing yards are not much more than average, but his 13 touchdown passes and four TD runs are much more. Whether his success continues in the tougher half of the Colts’ slate remains to be seen.

Here are other fantasy MVP candidates, led by the running back who has helped Jones lead the Colts to early-season glory:

Jonathan Taylor (Colts RB) — With 1,026 total yards and 14 touchdowns, the former Wisconsin Badger is on pace to be the NFL’s first 30-TD player since San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson had 31 in 2006.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs with the ball during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

Javonte Wiliams (Cowboys RB) — A bust in Denver, Williams has been a revelation in JerryWorld with 726 total yards and nine touchdowns.

Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams (33) runs the ball as Washington Commanders safety Quan Martin (20) defends during an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Cam Skattebo (Giants RB) — Before seeing his ankle turn into a pretzel, the rookie tallied 617 total yards and seven TDs.

New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo, left, gets tackled by Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Zack Baun, right, but injured his ankle in the process during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

George Pickens (Cowboys WR) — The former Steelers malcontent came up huge when CeeDee Lamb went down with injury, with 43 catches for 685 yards and six TDs.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens (3) runs past Denver Broncos linebacker Dondrea Tillman (92) in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Michael Pittman (Colts WR) — Indy’s No. 1 receiver is finally living up to his gaudy expectations, with 43 catches for 446 yards and 6 TDs.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) on the sidelines during an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

Tucker Kraft (Packers TE) — Last Sunday’s hero in Pittsburgh is having a career-best campaign. He has 30 catches for 469 yards and a half-dozen scores.

Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) runs after a catch during an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Matt Durisko)

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys TE) — He’s on pace to hit triple digits in catches this season, and he also has posted six touchdowns.

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) gains yards after a catch during an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

Drake Maye (Patriots QB) — The biggest QB bargain, who went undrafted in many leagues, has 15 TD passes and two scoring runs for playoff-bound New England.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) winds up to pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Sitting stars

First off, Justin Jefferson is the only Viking you should be confident to start against the Lions. … Tyrone Tracy will replace Skattebo in the Giants’ backfield, but no one should rush to start him against the 49ers. … Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco will be a non-entity versus Buffalo. … Atlanta WR Drake London will be held in check by New England. … The Rams’ tough defense will limit Saints WR Chris Olave. … Tua Tagovailoa’s revival will be short-lived against Baltimore’s no-longer-defenseless defense. … Other QBs we expect will underwhelm are Steelers’ Aaron Rodgers against Indy, Trevor Lawrence against the Raiders and C.J. Stroud versus Denver.

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson runs the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Jessie Alcheh)

Matchup game

Derrick Henry scored twice last week against Chicago, and he may do the same against the weak Miami defense. … The Chargers’ Kimani Vidal should have another big day against Tennessee. … Bears receivers Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore are both great starting options against Cincinnati. … We see one Lions WR breaking out against the Vikings: Jameson Williams. … Indy TE Tyler Warren will augment his rookie of the year resume versus Pittsburgh. … And two quarterbacks who could have big games are Seattle’s Sam Darnold against the Commanders, and the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray versus Dallas.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (5), right, hands the ball off to running back Derrick Henry (22) during the first half an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)

Injury watch

The biggest name among the Week 8 casualties is Philly RB Saquon Barkley, though his groin injury is not considered too serious. … Same goes for the shoulder injury of Cleveland RB Quinshon Judkins. … Three QBs will be returning from injury this week: Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and, very likely, Washington’s Jayden Daniels and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy. … The list of questionables includes two running backs (Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco, Chargers’ Hassan Haskins), four receivers (Rams’ Puka Nacua, Houston’s Nico Collins, Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas and Washington’s Terry McLaurin), one tight end (Raiders’ Brock Bowers) and three quarterbacks (Arizona’s Kyler Murray, Cincinnati’s Joe Flacco, Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr.).

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley looks on during an NFL football game against the New York Giants, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola)

Deepest sleeper

Tennessee WR Chimere Dike, a first-year pro from Florida, is becoming a favorite of fellow rookie Cam Ward. He tallied 93 yards in Week 8 against Indianapolis. Over the past two weeks he has 11 catches for 163 yards and a touchdown, which makes him a standout on Tennessee’s Island of Misfit Toys roster.

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Chimere Dike (17) makes a catch in front of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Austin Ajiake (58) during the first half an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The Thursday pick

Ravens at Dolphins (+7½)
Pick: Ravens by 14

You can hear Kevin Cusick on Thursdays on Bob Sansevere’s “BS Show” podcast on iTunes. You can follow Kevin on X– @theloopnow. He can be reached at kcusick@pioneerpress.com.

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