By Caitlin Reilly, Bloomberg News

President Donald Trump promised Americans big tax refunds next year. Many filers — particularly those who could most use the financial boost — may soon be disappointed.

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“Your sort of typical W-2 worker with no kids will see very little change year-over-year,” said Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. He estimates slightly more than half of taxpayers fall into that group.

That disconnect between Trump’s public promises and the reality for many Americans threatens to create a political liability for congressional Republicans ahead of midterm elections focused squarely on voters’ concerns about affordability. Trump has called affordability concerns a “hoax,” but economic data suggests otherwise.

Consumer sentiment is hovering near its lowest level on record, and Americans’ views of their personal finances are the worst since 2009. Meantime, wage gains have slowed to a crawl and job prospects have dimmed thanks to a slowdown in the labor market.

Wealthy taxpayers in high-tax states like California, New York and New Jersey are the biggest winners, as are workers who collect tips or overtime, and seniors. But most taxpayers will likely see only a modest boost that will do little to assuage their pocketbook concerns.

About a quarter of taxpayers will claim a boosted child tax credit, which will amount to at most an extra $200 per child, Michel estimated.

Fewer taxpayers fall into special categories due to receive larger breaks. About 13% will qualify for the new senior deduction for taxpayers aged 65 and older, and a combined 12% will deduct either tips or overtime wages, he said.

Uneven distribution

Forecasts of a bump in the average tax refund coming in the new year mask the uneven distribution of new tax breaks in Trump’s signature legislation, Michel said.

On average, taxpayers will see refunds just shy of $1,000 higher than previous years, Michel said. The average tax refund has hovered around $3,000 the last few years.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt touted the average numbers at a briefing just last week.

“Refunds could be about one-third larger than usual,” she declared. “So remember that the next time Democrats try to talk about affordability.”

A higher standard deduction will mean tax savings that are anywhere from less than $100 to a few hundred dollars higher than in past years, depending on a taxpayer’s income, said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center. The higher standard deduction is available to all taxpayers who don’t take itemized deductions.

But those who qualify for a handful of new and enhanced tax breaks are the big winners and their savings are driving up estimates of average savings. Those who can, for instance, take full advantage of the new $40,000 cap on state and local tax deductions — up from a prior limit of $10,000 — could shave thousands of dollars off a taxpayer’s bill.

“There will be substantially larger refunds for taxpayers who can enjoy those benefits — the tips, overtime, SALT deduction, auto loan interest deduction,” Lautz said. “We expect that to be a smaller slice of the population.”

Extensions

Much of the new tax law’s $3.4 trillion price tag was devoted to extending expiring tax breaks enacted in 2017.

Because many of the new tax breaks are deductions, which lower taxable income, and not credits, which lower tax liability directly, higher-income Americans stand to gain more. A deduction stretches further for wealthier taxpayers in higher tax brackets facing higher tax rates.

“One dollar of deduction is more valuable to someone who is richer than someone who is not making as much money,” said Brendan Novak, a senior policy analyst with the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Trump’s campaign promises of no tax on tips, overtime and auto-loan interest were achieved by establishing new deductions. That means the new tax breaks will translate into bigger savings for higher income earners — up to a point, since they also include income restrictions.

As a result, those in line to benefit the most from new tax savings next year tend to be wealthier. Analysis by the Penn Wharton Budget Model found that people making in the top fifth by income are likely to realize the biggest tax savings.

Those making between $376,000 and just below $960,000 a year are in line to get the biggest average tax cut, at $2,585. Comparatively, someone in the middle fifth of annual income, making between $49,000 and $90,000, would see their after-tax income rise by $650 on average, thanks to the new tax cuts, according to group’s analysis.

Taxpayers are more likely to collect their tax savings through a refund next year than usual though, thanks to a decision by the administration to leave outdated payroll withholding guidance in place, Lautz said.

Many of the new Trump tax cuts were retroactive to the start of this year, but rather than tell employers to withhold less from paychecks to account for lower tax bills, the IRS left older, higher withholding guidance in place. As a result, most workers will realize their tax savings through a refund when they file early next year, months before the midterm congressional elections.

Tax cuts would normally be spread out over a worker’s paychecks throughout the year through lower tax withholding.

“But because IRS has not updated withholding tables for 2025, people will get that as a lump sum when they file their taxes,” Lautz said.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

By DAVID CRARY, Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — Leading Jewish groups in the United States are urging all Jewish organizations to ratchet up security measures at public events — including restrictions on access — following the deadly mass shooting that targeted a Hanukkah celebration on a popular Australian beach.

The groups — including three which specialize in security issues — said Jewish public events in the coming days should be open only to people who had been screened after preregistering.

“Provide details of location, time, and other information only upon confirmed registration,” the groups’ advisory said. “Have access control (locks and entrance procedures) to only allow known, confirmed registrants/attendees into the facility/event.”

Coinciding with this urgent appeal for increased precautions, some rabbis said their synagogues would proceed with large-scale celebrations, intended to demonstrate resilience. The mass shooting is the latest reminder of the Jewish community’s longstanding reality of having to factor security into religious practice.

“This week, let us choose Jewish joy, communal strength, and courageous hope,” said a message posted by Temple Beth Sholom, one of the largest synagogues in the Miami area. “We invite every member of our family … to join us this week as we celebrate Chanukah. Let us gather to share the warmth of the candles and reaffirm our unbreakable connection.”

Similar sentiments were expressed by Rabbi Jeffrey Myers of Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life Congregation, a survivor of the 2018 attack by an antisemitic gunman that killed 11 worshippers at the synagogue.

“Hanukkah is supposed to be a time of light, celebrating the resilience of our people,” Myers said. “In the face of antisemitism and violence, my prayer is that we don’t let the fear win but instead lean into our Jewishness and practice our tradition proudly.”

People look at the Menorah during the annual National Menorah Lighting in celebration of Hanukkah, on the Ellipse near the White House in Washington, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

At least 15 people died in Sunday’s attack, which has fueled criticism that the nation’s authorities were not doing enough to combat a surge in antisemitic crimes. On Monday, Australian leaders promised to overhaul already-tough gun control laws after the targeted attack on Sydney’s Bondi Beach

Among those killed was Eli Schlanger, assistant rabbi at Chabad of Bondi and an organizer of the family Hanukkah event, according to Chabad, an Orthodox Jewish movement that runs outreach worldwide and is known for its public menorah lightings.

Just a year earlier, according to Chabad, Schlanger had urged his fellow Jews to be uncowed in the face of rising antisemitism, voicing this message, “Be more Jewish, act more Jewish and appear more Jewish.”

Chabad.org said Chabad centers worldwide are going ahead with thousands of planned public menorah lightings and community Hanukkah celebrations “while taking greater security precautions — calling on the Jewish community to drown out hate with greater light and goodness while mourning those lost and wounded in Sydney.”

The Sydney shooting reinforced the importance of these public celebrations, said Rabbi Chaim Landa with Chabad of Greater St. Louis. The organization proceeded with its planned Sunday night menorah lighting near the Gateway Arch but with a greater police presence. He believes it is what Schlanger would have wanted.

“There’s a couple pieces to this. There’s making sure that it’s safe, and there’s also making sure that people feel safe. And we want both,” said Landa, who estimates close to 300 people attended the outdoor event in below-freezing temperatures.

“People wanted to come out, and they wanted to be together. So it’s very important that people feel that they can do that, and that’s what we want to ensure.”

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In a speech delivered after the Australia attack, the president of the largest branch of Judaism in North America elaborated on the mix of dismay and determination being experienced through the Jewish community.

“We are thinking about security and how to live openly and safely as Jews — asking questions that are newer to us but would have been all too familiar to generations of our ancestors,” said Rabbi Rick Jacobs of the Union for Reform Judaism.

“We need to ask these hard questions. We need to be smart about security and protecting ourselves and our fellow Jews — whether within the synagogue walls, or when we walk down the street wearing a kippah,” he added. “But the spirit of the defiant Maccabees is also part of the Hanukkah story. Our Jewish community will not go into hiding. We are proud Jews and will remain so even as we make the security of our Jewish community a primary obligation.”

Jacobs referred to the Jewish tradition of placing the Hanukkah menorah in a window for others to see.

“But in the Babylonian Talmud we are taught that in a time of danger, we do not do that,” Jacobs said. “We have been living in a time of growing danger for several years now. And for too many Jews, putting a menorah in the window is too dangerous.”

Alon Shalev, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem, argued that Jews — following the attack — should be bolder in boosting their public profile.

“When Jews are attacked for being visibly Jewish, the instinct to retreat is understandable — but it is precisely the wrong response,” he told The Associated Press via email.

“Jewish safety in democratic societies depends on open, shared civic affirmation, supported by political and community leaders and by fellow citizens, not on retreat behind closed doors,” he added. “Stepping into the public square and normalizing Jewish presence is how we defend ourselves.”

AP religion news editor Holly Meyer contributed to this report.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

By MICHAEL R. SISAK, Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — UPS stole tens of millions of dollars in pay from seasonal workers who help the shipping giant deliver packages during the busy holiday season, forcing some to clock in well after their shifts started and deducting pay for lunch breaks they never took, New York Attorney General Letitia James alleged in a lawsuit Monday.

Filed in state court in Manhattan, the lawsuit accuses UPS of “repeatedly and persistently” failing to properly compensate driver helpers, who assist with deliveries, and seasonal support drivers, who use their own vehicles to make deliveries. James estimated that in the last six years, UPS has deprived tens of thousands of seasonal workers of wages totaling about $45 million.

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The lawsuit seeks back pay and penalties, plus a court order requiring UPS to end off-the-clock work and change its timekeeping and payroll practices. The company, known for its brown trucks and uniforms, delivered an average of 22.4 million packages a day and brought in $91.1 billion in revenue last year, according to its website.

“We oftentimes don’t think of these workers when we’re opening up our gifts for the holidays,” James said at a news conference announcing the lawsuit. “And these individuals are struggling each and every day to make ends meet.”

In a statement, Georgia-based UPS said it was aware of the lawsuit, “takes all accusations of wrongdoing seriously and denies the unfounded allegation of intentionally underpaying UPS employees.”

“We offer industry-leading pay and benefits to our more than 26,000 employees in New York, and we remain committed to following all applicable laws,” the statement said.

James, a Democrat, said she started investigating UPS in 2023 after an employee union, Teamsters Local 804, raised concerns about the company’s treatment of seasonal workers. Those workers are employed on a temporary basis from October to January.

Josh Pomeranz, the union’s director of operations, said that while there isn’t evidence that the company’s top management was involved in, aware of or condoning alleged wage theft, “these are just certain practices that you have to actively ignore, not to see it happening.”

NEVIS, Minn. — Although it was dark and freezing cold, the air outside Flour Chicks Bakery in Nevis smelled like warm doughnuts.

Inside this bakery in Minnesota’s lake country, the staff were working late into the night to churn out a steady supply of fresh breads and pastries. In the winter, the bakery’s calmest season, owner Sara Halik said they work until about midnight or 1 a.m., then start baking again at 5 a.m.

Halik bought the bakery two years ago with her sister-in-law, Tina Smith. She also owns Red River Bar and Grill in Akeley and splits her time between the two Hubbard County businesses.

She said she was in charge of making the cakes at her restaurant.

“I just fell in love with it and decided I wanted more work to do,” she said. “So, I bought a bakery.”

Flour Chicks re-opened under Halik’s ownership in October 2023, she said. So far, business has been booming, although the bakery only recently hired a full staff.

Behind the scenes

Flour Chicks Bakery owner Sara Halik of Nevis, Minn., said her favorite things about the bakery are her great staff and customers. (Alex Haddon / Park Rapids Enterprise / Forum News Service)

All of the recipes are kept in a thick binder, where they’re laminated and covered with notes. Some of them are “very touchy,” Halik said. As the seasons, temperature and humidity change, amounts of water and yeast have to be carefully adjusted by the gram.

Nikki Kramer starts her shift at 5 p.m., right after the store closes to customers, and gets to work making “all the pastries for the morning,” Halik said. Those include turnovers, scones, croissants, muffins and cinnamon rolls.

“You’ll see her cinnamon twists come out perfect,” Halik said.

To make cinnamon twists, a large sheet of dough is coated with an egg wash and sprinkled with cinnamon. Then, Kramer folds it over, cuts it into strips, twists them and sets them aside to rise.

Kramer and the other night staff go through dozens of sheets of dough, pressing out air bubbles and cutting out rings for doughnuts.

The centers of the doughnuts are saved to become doughnut holes. Cutter Serena Krotzer chops up any spare scraps of dough with cinnamon to be made into apple fritters.

Nothing goes to waste.

Neil Selseth, the fryer and “muscle” of the team, arrives at 6:30 p.m. and starts on the battered doughnuts.

“These girls make the magic happen, I just take care of the heavy stuff,” Selseth said, referring to the 50-pound bags of ingredients he lifts.

By 7:30 p.m. on a Tuesday, much of the next day’s doughnuts were rising in a warming box called a proofer.

Selseth was frying croissants in hot oil. Each small batch took about two minutes to finish. Selseth monitored them carefully and flipped them with a pair of sticks when they turned golden brown, then transferred them to a rack to glaze.

The business of baking

Neil Selseth of Flour Chicks Bakery in Nevis, Minn., maneuvers with a tray of freshly fried and glazed croissants ready for the doughnut case. (Alex Haddon / Park Rapids Enterprise / Forum News Service)

Halik knew cakes, but not doughnuts or bread when she bought Flour Chicks, she said, so the previous owner gave her and Smith a crash course in baking.

Once a week or so, they would come in and help him bake goods for the farmers’ markets.

“That’s how we learned to do what he was doing,” she said. “So, that really helped. It helped him too, because we were making the product for him to take and sell.”

Opening the doors was “overwhelming” at first, Halik said. Customers poured in, but the bakery was drastically understaffed.

“I was cutting, frying, I mean doing everything, every night, myself,” Halik said. “We were working 15-, 16-hour days. We were running the counter and running the back.”

Summer is their busiest season. Halik said she worked for 24 hours straight during one holiday, although she doesn’t remember which.

“I believe she had like 15 or 18 dozen croissants she had to fry, and additionally, another 30 pounds worth of cake doughnuts that she fried up,” Selseth said about one particularly busy summer day. “And they still ran out of doughnuts before 11 a.m.”

Soon, Halik said she developed a process for the bakery and hired people into specific positions. There were moments of hilarity, like when Halik got to know “Big Bertha,” her giant mixer.

“When we first started, we did not know what speeds they were,” she said. “So, we filled it up with powdered sugar. We thought three was low and it was not.”

The sugar went “everywhere,” leaving her and Smith laughing hysterically.

Now, Halik said she has about nine great employees and the bakery is running smoothly. She stops by in the mornings and evenings to check in.

She also makes all the pies. Over Thanksgiving, she said she fulfilled about 100 orders ranging from pumpkin to coconut cream.

Bright and early

It was about 7 below outside when the morning shift started with prepping bread and frosting doughnuts.

There’s a special technique to folding bread dough so it rises in neat spheres, Maya Deshayes said. The dough is tucked into itself and flipped over, leaving a perfectly smooth, domed top.

Keelin Irish was frosting and filling doughnuts. Despite “not being a morning person,” she works at Flour Chicks before heading to class at Nevis Public School. Halik was cutting cheesecake into tiny squares she would later dunk in melted candy to make 2,000 cheesecake bites.

Halik said Kathy Plumley is her “main person,” taking care of the cookie and cake decorating and overseeing general operations. Many of the vibrant designs in the cake counter are her work. Earlier that week, she’d frosted about 1,000 intricate Christmas cookies for the Akeley Veterans and Community Outreach Christmas party.

Plumley, a self-taught froster, helped teach Halik how to “do cakes.”

“(Plumley) always said, ‘Well, if I was younger, I’d buy that bakery,’” Halik said. “So when I bought the bakery, I reached out to her.’”

At 5:30 a.m., Plumley was dunking tiny, round pieces of cookie in icing and red sugar sprinkles to make Rudolph noses. Then, she decorated doughnuts to look like melted snowmen.

Doors open to customers at 6 a.m., except for a special group of customers known as “the coffee guys.” The group of retirees have been meeting for years to chat in the mornings. They’re greeted by Candy Pike, who works the front counter.

Pike said she loves working somewhere where everyone’s happy to visit.

“Here, I just get to be me and have fun and greet customers,” she said. “I get people to buy a lot of doughnuts.”

Pike said she’s worked in a lot of commercial bakeries, many of which just order their pastries frozen, “warm them up and put a little icing on them.” Flour Chicks is old school, she said. Baking is an art and they do it well.

Pike said her favorite good at the bakery, the fried cinnamon roll topped with buttercream and pecans, is so heavenly it “gives you a buzz.”

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