President Donald Trump has taken to routinely maligning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as “too late” because interest rates have been on hold at 4.25%-4.5% since he took office.

On Tuesday alone, he characteristically took to social media to demand three percentage points of rate cuts — something that is never going to happen outside of a recession. Trump’s needling aside, the latest inflation data show that Powell’s wait-and-see approach is the exact right tack for today’s economic outlook.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that the core consumer price index rose 0.2% in June from a month earlier, a slightly encouraging surprise that leaves the year-over-year rate at 2.9%. But the reading remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, and the details of the report show that tariffs are starting to fan higher prices and that larger effects might start to feed through over the next couple of months. (The Fed’s target is technically based on the personal consumption expenditures price index, which will be released later in the month. Core CPI constituents feed into that calculation and the two gauges currently produce similar assessments about the state of U.S. inflation.)

More specifically, core goods rose 0.2% in June from a month earlier, the most brisk pace since February, driven in large part by a jump in household furnishings and supplies — a telltale sign of tariff passthrough. That category (think appliances, rugs, housekeeping supplies, etc.) jumped by 1% from the prior month, the biggest such increase since January 2022. Also notching the biggest month-on-month jump since 2022 were recreation commodities (sporting goods, toys, video equipment, etc.). Not only were tariff impacts undeniable this month, they appeared to be broadening out from what had been a very light and scattered influence in previous months’ data.

Still, this was neither a month to panic nor celebrate. With the backdrop of a steady unemployment rate, it’s time to do as the embattled Fed chair — whom Trump has committed to replacing when his term is up next year — has been advising all along: Wait for more data.

Among Fed policymakers and private sector economists, the general view of tariffs has been that they would hit sometime over the summer. For starters, Trump’s biggest and broadest tariff salvo didn’t come until April. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists estimate that it takes about a month for many imports to reach U.S. shores, and goods were exempt if they were already on the ship at the time of the “Liberation Day” duties.

What’s more, businesses stockpiled inventory in advance of the deadline and Customs and Border Protection allows many importers to delay payments for up to a month and a half. Hence, many forecasters expected June to be the start of a tariff-impact story that could become more evident in July and August.

Powell has been broadly in that camp. At the post-decision press conference in June, he said that he expected to learn more “over the summer” about tariffs. “We hadn’t expected them to show up much by now, and they haven’t,” he said. “And we will see the extent to which they do over the coming months.” In markets, his comments have been broadly interpreted to mean that further rate cuts were possible (though hardly guaranteed) as soon as September, and that still feels appropriate. By that time, the committee will have additional inflation data in hand for the months of July and August.

Unfortunately, Trump has used his social media platform to advocate for more immediate cuts, and his Council of Economic Advisers recently published an analysis that found no evidence that tariffs have caused “any economically meaningful inflation.” Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif wrote Monday that the council had gotten ahead of itself. “Setting aside the methodology for a moment, if the main point of the CEA’s analysis is to suggest that tariffs are not impacting inflation, then I think they’ve spiked the ball at the 50-yard line,” he said.

It’s entirely possible, of course, that tariff impacts could spread further and that the Fed will still lower policy rates. The central bank doesn’t have to wait for inflation to return to 2% to start lowering rates again; rates are clearly at a level that the median Fed policymaker would deem restrictive. Powell and his colleagues just need to gain confidence that it remains on the right trajectory.

Furthermore, tariffs are generally seen as a one-off increase in prices — the sort of supply shock that monetary policy orthodoxy would tell you to “look through.” The ultimate question as it pertains to trade policy is whether tariffs will shock expectations to such an extent that inflation gets back into the bones of the economy. That may depend on both the magnitude of the tariff impacts and their duration. And all of those variables depend, in turn, on whether Trump decides to temper the policies — as he’s occasionally proved willing to do, especially when financial markets react badly.

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To some extent, monetary policy will also depend on what happens with other key categories in the inflation basket. Among major imported goods, the auto sector is a big question mark. While tariffs are driving up car prices and threatening profit margins, the government data showed that prices of both new and used vehicles fell in June from May — a reminder that the duties aren’t the only consideration. Dealers are also contending with high borrowing costs and a general affordability crunch that’s weighing on demand. Many are uncertain about whether they can increase prices without hitting customer traffic and market share.

What’s more, it’s important to remember that core services — which aren’t directly impacted by the tariffs — still constitute about three-quarters of core CPI and about two-thirds of inflation overall. As such, it’s plausible that services disinflation could mitigate the jumps in certain core goods prices, especially if shelter inflation remains as tame as it’s been for the better part of 2025.

With all the crosscurrents, the responsible solution is for policymakers to wait for more evidence, and that’s exactly what the Fed is doing under Powell’s stewardship.

No matter what the partisans around the White House say, the chairman is handling tariff uncertainty about as well as you could ask for.

Jonathan Levin is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist focused on U.S. markets and economics. Previously, he worked as a Bloomberg journalist in the U.S., Brazil and Mexico. He is a CFA charterholder.

A new thriller from an award-winning author, a memoir of confronting epilepsy, and a heads-up about new books detailing the careers of two important Minnesota politicians are just right for summer reading.

(Courtesy of the author)

“The Laughing Dead”: by Jess Lourey (Thomas & Mercer, $16.99)

But I wasn’t a witch. I was a woman who’d been regularly terrorized as a kid and so had sharpened to a razor’s edge the instinct every human possessed. Who hasn’t connected two seemingly unrelated facts to come up with an unexpected truth, or felt a tingle telling them they were being lied to, or had a dream about someone they hadn’t seen in years the night before running into them on the street? — From “The Laughing Dead“

Jess Lourey (Courtesy of the author)

Corpses with twisted grins are at the center of bestselling Minnesotan author Jess Lourey’s fourth carefully crafted thriller featuring BCA cold case agent Evangeline “Van” Reed and her partner, forensic scientist Harry Steinbeck. And a twisted story it is, when the bodies of three teenage girls are found in central  Minnesota and dubbed by the press “the laughing dead” for their ghoulish smiles.

Lourey begins with what happened to the three girls who ended up dead in the 1980s. But what the investigators don’t know at first is that there was a fourth teen who lived. That girl, known as Just Judy, came under the spell of a man whom she learned to love and obey as they set up a farm where young girls were kept by the charismatic man who ruled, God-like, over The Mothers and the children. It takes Van and Steinbeck’s team a lot of digging before they realize what happened to Judy and who was responsible for the other girls’ murders. Chapters about Judy’s years running the farm and how women can be in the thrall of a charming but abusive man are interspersed with chapters about the investigation.

The Laughing Dead case gets personal for Van when her old police ID is found at the scene of one of the deaths, much to the delight of a former police colleague who drove her out of the department when he called her a witch because of her uncanny ability to intuit some things. And why does she keep finding red scarves everywhere she goes? As the investigation continues, a secret Van has been keeping her entire life is returning. She is also hiding from Steinbeck important information about the abduction of his sister years earlier, which she learned about when the partners were in Duluth in Lourey’s previous book, “The Reaping.”

Van and Steinbeck are opposites, which makes them a good team. Van is messy, intuitive and ready to take risks. Steinbeck, who dresses like a GQ model, is calm, rational and always there for Van.

Lourey, whose thrillers are sympathetic to women victims of all kinds of crimes, is author of the light-hearted Murder by Month series, Salem’s Cipher thrillers and stand-alone thrillers including the popular “The Quarry Girls.” When Lourey isn’t writing or traveling, she maintains a popular online presence detailing the goofiness of her foster kittens. 

(Courtesy of the University of Minnesota Press)

“Racing Uphill”: by Stacia Kalinoski  (University of Minnesota Press, $19.95)

The one detail I failed to remember was that each of my seizures had repercussions. The hard-fought reality that my worsening memory would eventually make reporting impossible if the seizures continued had not completely set in. Epilepsy had already taken away my personal life and marathon racing, but the possibility of losing my career seemed impossible. I never could have imagined that a seizure could affect so many other people. — from “Racing Uphill”

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Stacia Kalinoski’s involving memoir, subtitled “Confronting Life With Epilepsy,” is an eye-opening look into a neurological condition that affects 55,000 Minnesotans. Kalinoski’s story is so compelling that her documentary about the disease, “Brainstorm,” was broadcast on public television.

After competing in a variety of sports in high school and in marathons at the University of Minnesota, Kalinoski was climbing the career ladder as a TV reporter at stations in Nebraska and Oregon while continuing to compete in marathons, in denial about her continuing seizures and always pushing herself to do better. She was working at the job she loved at a station in Michigan where her understanding boss wrote a plan for the staff to follow if Stacia had an episode. But when she was 29 she regained consciousness on a couch at the station, and this seizure ended her journalism career. (She later won an Emmy for her reporting.)

There was no longer any way for Kalinoski to hide the electrical storms in her brain and the vivid auras preceding them, so she returned to the Twin Cities searching for a cure. Like a good reporter, she weaves her personal story into her interviews with prominent specialists who explain how seizures spread in the brain, steal memories and create mood disorders. They also cause strange behavior that stigmatizes those with the disease, as Kalinoski found out when she was confronted at a gym by a man who insulted her for what he perceived as strange behavior. That’s one reason she shares her experiences now as a motivational speaker.

It’s fortunate Kalinoski lived in the Twin Cities, where help is available to diagnose and mitigate her epilepsy.  After numerous tests that included brain mapping and visits to doctors at United Hospital, she had the courage to undergo brain surgery.

Her surgery went well, and now she walks instead of running. In the end, she writes:

“There is no doubt that the determination and resilience I found in athletics got me through my job loss and surgery. One phrase you’ll hear repeatedly from coaches and athletes is ‘Don’t give up.’ But it’s more than that… don’t give up on yourself.”

Lori Sturdevant’s name is on new books from Minnesota Historical Society Press about state politicians. “Perpich: A Minnesota Original” written by Ben Schierer with Sturdevant, is about DFLer Rudy Perpich, the state’s longest-serving governor. The book, crafted from oral histories of influential leaders, traces his story from his youth on the Iron Range to his years globetrotting on economic  tours and developing major construction projects. He is also the first governor to have a female lieutenant governor, Marlene Johnson, who tells her story in her recent memoir “Rise to the Challenge” (University of Minnesota Press).

Sturdevant is author of “Martin Sabo: The Making of the Modern Legislature,” about Sabo’s influence on Minnesota state government during his years as DFL speaker of the House of Representatives.

KAREN BABINE: Presents “The Allure of Elsewhere: A Memoir of Going Solo,” in conversation with Chris Hewitt. 7 p.m. Wednesday, Magers & Quinn, 3038 Hennepin Ave. S., Mpls.

TIM BRADY: Launches “A Light in the Northern Sea: Denmark’s Incredible Rescue of Their Jewish Citizens During WWII.” 7 p.m. Tuesday, Magers & Quinn, 3038 Hennepin Ave. S., Mpls.

MINNESOTA MYSTERY NIGHT: Turns to South Africa with author Stanley Trollip in conversation with New York historical mystery writer Annamaria Alfieri. Trollip, a retired professor who divides his time between Cape Town, Minneapolis and Copenhagen, is the writing partner of Michael Sears, another South African writer. Their best-known series features Detective Kubu, written under the pen name Michael Stanley. The most recent in their series, number eight, is “A Deadly Covenant.” Trollip’s latest solo book, “Wolfman,” features investigative reporter Crystal Nguyen, a prequel to “Dead of Night,” a thriller also written with Sears. Their books are set in Botswana. Alfieri writes the Vera and Tolliver historical mysteries set in British East Africa. 7 p.m. Monday, Lucky’s 13 Pub, 1352 Sibley Memorial Highway, Mendota.  $13 reservation charge. Go to mnmysteryight.com.

(Courtesy of Red Hen Press)

MOLLY OLGUIN: Seattle-based queer writer, educator and monster aficionado discusses “The Sea Gives Up the Dead,” including stories about a lovesick nanny who slays a dragon, a devil who tries to save her mother, and a mermaid who falls under the power of a witch. 6 p.m. Thursday, Next Chapter Booksellers, 38 S. Snelling Ave., St. Paul.

MORGAN RYAN: Presents “A Resistance of Witches” in conversation with Emma Torzs. 7 p.m. Tuesday, Magers & Quinn, 3038 Hennepin Ave. S., Mpls.

THREE AUTHORS: Minnesota fiction writers sign their latest books: John Gaspard (“Twisting the Aces”), Judy Kerr (“Postmarked Castle Cove”), Mary Seifert (“Airplanes, Atlanta & an Assassin”). Noon-2 p.m. Saturday, Once Upon a Crime, 604 W. 26th St., Mpls.

AMY TINTERA: California-based author discusses her novel “Listen For the Lie” presented by Books & Bars and Friends of the St. Paul Public Library, moderated by Jeff Kamin. 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Urban Growler, 2325 Endicott St., St. Paul.

What else is going on

Carolyn Holbrook (Courtesy of the author)

There’s going to be a lot of happiness today at Flava Cafe in St. Paul when early-career writers in the Go Back & Fetch It program, sponsored by More Than a Single Story, celebrate the end of the first year of the mentoring program with a reading. Congratulations to the young writers and especially to Carolyn Holbrook, amazing founder of More Than a Single Story.

Holbrook, who could be considered the godmother of Black Twin Cities writers, is an award-winning author and teacher at Hamline University. She was a single mother when she founded the Whittier Writers Workshop in a Minneapolis park, then began SASE: The Write Place, an influential organization that reached hundreds of writing students and sponsored readings around the Twin Cities.

In 2015, Holbrook used some of her Minnesota State Arts Board grant to produce More Than a Single Story, a three-program series at the Loft Literary Center featuring Twin Cities women writers of the African diaspora, aimed at showing there are cultures represented by women who should not be simply defined as “Black” writers. Holbrook wasn’t sure how the series would be received, but she needn’t have worried. There was standing room only at the first program attended by a diverse audience.

Now we are in 2025, and More Than a Single Story is an umbrella organization made up of more programs, as shown in the July newsletter. Among them are The Sweeter the Juice Salon series for mid-career and established Black writers and Our Stories, Ourselves, panels and writing workshops that include Embracing Our Roots and Writer to Writer; in which writers pair up to discuss their work and their lives. The newest program, which begins in August, is Turning the Pages, workshops and mentorships in book publishing.

Holbrook was 75 in 2020 when her memoir “Tell Me Your Names and I Will Testify” was published by the University of Minnesota Press and won a Minnesota Book Award. She is also winner of the Minnesota Book Awards Kay Sexton Award for outstanding contributions to the Minnesota literary community.  Among her other accomplishments: First person of color to hold a leadership position at the Loft Literary Center; originator of first-in-the-nation grants for spoken-word artists, earning her the nickname “Slam Granny”; AARP/Pollen Midwest 50 over 50 honoree; and Hamline University Exemplary Teacher Award. She is co-editor with David Mura of the anthology “We Are Meant to Rise: Voices for Justice from Minneapolis to the World” (University of Minnesota Press).

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There are so many great stories in the over 60 constellations available to us in our night sky. There are heroes, hunters, musical instruments, royalty and all kinds of critters, including eight birds. Cygnus the Swan is the biggest and brightest of the celestial birds, and is now flying very high in the early evening southeastern sky. The brightest star in Cygnus is Deneb, shining brightly at the end of its tail feathers. Deneb is also one of the stars that make up the very large “Summer Triangle,” which can help you find your way in the summer heavens. The other Summer Triangle stars are Vega and Altair, the brightest stars in their respective constellations, Lyra (the Harp) and Aquila (the Eagle). Just look for the three brightest stars in the high southern sky, and that’s it!

Deneb is the highest but dimmest star in the triangle, but it is not a puny star. On the contrary, it’s a fantastically massive star at least 1,500 light-years away, with just one light-year equaling almost 6 trillion miles. It’s so far away that the light we see from it tonight left that star around 500 AD. Theoretically, it could explode tonight, and our great-great-great-great-grandkids wouldn’t see the explosion until well after 3500.

Diagram of the constellation Cygnus (Mike Lynch)

Cygnus the Swan contains within it a pattern of stars called the Northern Cross. It’s much easier to see the Northern Cross before looking for the rest of the Swan. Face south and you’ll see Deneb sitting at the top of the diagonally orientated cross. Down and to the right of Deneb, you should easily see the three stars that make up the crosspiece. At the foot of the cross is the not-so-impressive star Albireo, at least to the naked eye. However, with a small telescope, or one of the newer smart photographic scopes that are really catching on, you’ll see that Albireo is not just one star but a beautiful pair of stars, one gold and the other blue. It’s one of the best double stars in the night sky. While Albireo appears to be a double star system, it’s more complicated than that. The gold star is actually a tight three-star system, consisting of three stars so close together that they appear as one.

Albireo (Mike Lynch)

It’s easy to expand on the Northern Cross and find the entire swan. To do that, make Deneb the tail of the swan and Albireo the swan’s head. Then look for fainter stars just off and slightly to the left of both sides of the crosspiece. These stars make up the wingtips. Draw a curved line from one wingtip through the crosspiece stars and onto the opposite wingtip stars, and you have the entire wingspan of Cygnus.

The Greek mythology story of how Cygnus came to be in the sky is a sad one, although it has a somewhat happy ending. Helios, the Greek name for the god of the sun, was one of the upper echelons of the gods on Mount Olympus. Every day, he was responsible for guiding the sun across the sky, encased in a giant glass chariot. A fleet of flying white horses gallantly pulled the chariot.

Phaethon, one of Helios’ many children, idolized his dad and very much wanted to eventually take over the reins of the sun chariot when Helios retired. At just 10 years old, Phaethon begged his dad to let him take the sun chariot for a ride, but Helios said no, and for good reason. It was a colossal accident waiting to happen. Even so, Phaethon, in his youthful exuberance, was convinced he could handle it. One morning, temptation set in, and the inevitable disaster followed.

Helios overslept that morning, and Phaethon realized that this was his chance. He entered the hangar with the golden chariot, climbed in, backed it out, and bellowed a celestial “giddy up!” to the flying horses. Before he knew it, he was airborne.

Surprisingly he handled the sun vehicle like a pro at first, but soon he got cocky and lost control of the chariot. A crash of celestial proportions was moments away. If the sun crashed, the entire world would turn into a blaze of fire. From Mount Olympus, Zeus, the king of the gods, saw what was happening and took immediate action. He couldn’t tell who was in the driver’s seat but knew it wasn’t Helios. Not recognizing Phaethon, he concluded it was an enemy intruder at the reins. He frantically shouted down to Helios for help and then shot a lightning bolt at Phaethon, spearing him out of the driver’s seat and on the way to a fatal plunge. Meanwhile, with all his might, Helios catapulted himself up to the chariot and jumped into the seat. He got control of it just before the sun catastrophically crashed.

Meanwhile, Phaethon plunged into the river Po and was killed on impact. At that height, it was like slamming into a cement slab. Soon after, Helios and Zeus tragically discovered who was shot out of the chariot and met his demise. Other gods recognized the body as well and were just as grief-stricken. As a lasting memorial, they magically transformed his body into the beautiful constellation we see today as Cygnus the Swan.

Enjoy the high-flying swan of the night sky!

A celestial “hugging.” (Mike Lynch)

Celestial Hugging This Week: Very early morning risers this coming Tuesday can see the waning crescent moon parked between the bright planets Jupiter and Venus in the early morning twilight.

Mike Lynch is an amateur astronomer and retired broadcast meteorologist for WCCO Radio in Minneapolis/St. Paul. He is the author of “Stars: a Month by Month Tour of the Constellations,” published by Adventure Publications and available at bookstores and adventurepublications.net. Mike is available for private star parties. You can contact him at mikewlynch@comcast.net.

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