Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, yet with Election Day closing in, the state is looking at the closest thing to a toss-up race in a generation. Some Republicans are wringing their hands as the early votes roll in, with a surge of likely Democratic voters outpacing likely Republicans, according to vote tracking. Candidates are making one last push to get their Texans to the polls.
Long roaming the political wilderness, Texas Dems are hopeful they’ve finally brought together the sort of broad coalition of voters, coupled with an ideally favorable environment, that they need to flip Texas—led by a strong, well-funded candidate in state Representative James Talarico, who has consistently led in the polls for Senate, against a divisive and damaged opponent in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
From July through September, Talarico hauled in a record-breaking $64 million, far outraising Paxton’s $18 million. But the off-and-on trillionaire Elon Musk has swooped in and dropped a titanic fortune of over $200 million to buoy Paxton and try to sink Talarico. Yet the Democratic golden boy’s polling numbers haven’t really budged. Several of the latest surveys show Talarico with around a 2-point lead. Of course, it’s still a dubious advantage that’s within the margin of error, but it’s nonetheless an advantage that a statewide Democratic candidate hasn’t had in over 30 years.
“This is the latest in the cycle that I can remember thinking our statewide [candidates] still had a chance to win,” Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic strategist, told the Texas Observer. “Even in 2018, I thought it was going to get away from Beto [O’Rourke],” who famously ended up losing by just over 2 points.
Early voting records show that over 5 million Texans have already cast a ballot with an unprecedented number of people who previously voted in Democratic primaries slightly leading the push. Even though Republicans tend to vote more heavily on Election Day, GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser said the numbers are still concerning.
“I’m feeling some trepidation as a Republican,” Steinhauser told the Observer this week. “Democrats seem to be outpacing Republicans this week by a decent margin … but it could go either way.”
Talarico supporters at a campaign rally for the Democrat in Fort Bend County in October (Photo by Eden Shamy)
That sentiment was echoed by Derek Ryan, a GOP consultant who is the preeminent source of electoral turnout analysis in Texas. “This is actually new territory. I don’t think that I ever recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history,” Ryan told the Texas Tribune. “In 2022 and 2024 at this point, even in those earlier days, Republican primary voters were making up larger shares.”
In the final stretch, Talarico—with a Friday Night Lights-inspired “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts” closing theme—and Paxton—with a “Come and Take It” theme that will end at the Alamo on Election Day—have embarked on dueling bus tours around the state to get out their base. Last week, they brought with them opposing visions of the Lone Star State and warnings of a dystopian future if they fail. At Talarico rallies, Musk’s influence over Paxton forewarned of a future where billionaire reign continues to crush the working class. At Paxton rallies, Republicans swore that a win for Democrats would bring about a communist-Islamist takeover of the nation.
Last Tuesday, on the second day of early voting, a gray-haired crowd lined up for the sixth stop of Paxton’s tour in suburban Conroe, north of Houston in the heart of the red bastion of Montgomery County. Janice Heneghan, a 65-year-old from Montgomery, told the Observer she wasn’t fearful about Talarico polling better than Paxton. “I’m kind of glad they’re saying that. That only gets people going, ‘Oh my gosh, I got to get out to vote!’” Henighan said she planned to cast her ballot after the mid-day rally.
A crowd of over 200 people sat around the picnic tables of the outdoor venue, The Table, eating tacos and drinking beer as country jams blasted through the speakers. They danced to the “Y.M.C.A.” before bowing their heads for the invocation.
“The Antichrist spirit is at work through progressive candidates like James Talarico. He’s at work through movements like communism and Islam,” said James Buntrock, executive director of a local Christian fundamentalist group called My God Votes. Then he prayed for God to speak through Paxton.
Paxton rally-goers dance to the “Y.M.C.A.” at a venue in Conroe. (Eden Shamy)
In addition to all of Paxton’s moral and ethical luggage, his campaign style has also laid bare the fact that he hasn’t really had to sell himself to a general election electorate that doesn’t know—nor particularly care—about the myriad right-wing obsessions the attorney general has built his career upon. Paxton has also hugged President Donald Trump—whose approval rating is sitting at just over 30 percent—like a security blanket as the president’s repeatedly come to Texas in an attempt to boost his chosen candidate (and simultaneously roast him).
“Texas Republicans have run a national campaign,” Angle said. “Talarico has done an extraordinary job of being the Texan in the race who has made himself available to independents and to fair-minded Republicans.”
Paxton took the stage in Conroe and delivered his trademark milquetoast address in which he casually read his lines off the teleprompter like it was the first time delivering his stump speech. He touted his record fighting the Joe Biden administration, suing Pfizer over the COVID-19 vaccine, and going after social media platforms that endanger children. “I secured more than a billion dollars from Meta,” Paxton said. “I also recently sued a few others: Netflix, TikTok, and Snapchat for letting our kids get taken advantage of online.”
The only major platform to evade Paxton’s ire was X, owned by Musk. In January, Democrats demanded that Paxton investigate Musk’s artificial intelligence agent on the platform, Grok, for creating pornographic imagery of women and children. Paxton never did.
Paxton at a campaign rally in Fort Bend County in October (Eden Shamy)
The Republican candidate also promoted his “Protecting the Texas Promise Plan,” a slapdash package of tax incentives aimed at easing voter discontent on affordability. According to the Texas Politics Project, the most important issues for Texas voters heading into the midterms are the cost of living, the economy, and corruption. Paxton’s plan would increase the child tax credit and offer deductions for medical bills, gym memberships, and first-time homebuyers. Paxton spent the second half of his speech attacking Talarico as a radical vegan with ridiculous interpretations of Christianity, like saying that God is non-binary. “I’m still looking for that in the Bible,” Paxton stuttered.
“I don’t know if it will be enough,” worried Steinhauser. “People are still just paying so much at the pump.”
The same routine played out that night at the Safari Texas Ranch in Fort Bend County, a booming suburban sprawl that, at one time a GOP stronghold, has grown increasingly blue over the past decade. Mike Engle, the CEO of a satellite manufacturer, stood in a line of a few hundred attendees outside the Safari Lodge. He thinks the predictions of a blue wave could be more of a small swell, if that. “Republicans don’t speak up, and I think they’re undercounted in the polls consistently,” Engle said. He already cast his ballot for Paxton, but he came to the rally to learn more. “I don’t know his policies or anything,” Engle said.
The businessman said Trump’s tariff wars have harmed his multinational company, but he still believes the specter of socialism poses a greater threat. Engle hopes that Musk’s massive donation can help Paxton, although it might have come too late. “Early voting is starting, and people are burned out on the ads,” Engle said. “Talarico spent his money early and planted a bunch of seeds.”
A Paxton supporter at one of his “Come and Take It” bus tour campaign rallies (Eden Shamy)
The next day, on Wednesday, Talarico hosted a flurry of events in the Houston area, part of his last statewide barnstorming after a two-week bout with the flu that sent right-wing conspiracists spiraling about his whereabouts.
In the afternoon, Talarico stopped by a house by Lindale Park to kick off a blockwalk. A small army of door-knockers gathered on the covered patio, many wearing bright blue shirts with “BlackTOP” emblazoned across the front. As part of the Texas Organizing Project (TOP), BlackTOP has operated some of the largest Black voter engagement programs in the state.
“What makes a difference is neighbors showing up at their neighbors’ doorstep talking about the stakes of this election,” Talarico said, thanking the canvassers as he stood on the patio steps flanked by Houston Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia and Houston Mayor John Whitmire.
Ever since defeating Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the primary, Talarico’s ability to turn out Black voters has been a topic of fierce debate—one that he’s tried to address with repeated outreach efforts, as well as a pledge to earmark $25 million of his campaign budget specifically for Black voter outreach. TOP, an organizing powerhouse primarily made up of Black and Latino members, endorsed Talarico after he won the primary. The boots on the ground that the group provides could be a key factor in boosting turnout in blue cities like Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.
TOP Executive Director Brianna Brown believes Talarico has been “putting in work” to address Black voters’ concerns. “He is figuring out how to speak directly to the needs and concerns of Black folks, and he’s had to make up some ground,” Brown said. “One of the ways that you show political love is that you spend money.”
Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia with canvassers at a Texas Organizing Project block-walking launch in Houston (Eden Shamy)
After kicking off the TOP canvass, Talarico went across town to the Texas Gulf Coast Area Labor Federation, where union workers of all trades packed into the headquarters and lined the stage with signs that read “Workers vs. Billionaires.” Speakers took the podium to call out trillionaire Musk for trying to buy the Senate seat.
“Are you ready to tell the billionaires this country belongs to the people who do the work?” Brian Bryant, president of the International Association of Machinists (IAM) labor union, shouted from the podium. “Yes!” the crowd roared back.
Bryant has been leading a nationwide electoral campaign to mobilize union workers in several competitive states. He and AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler flew down from Washington, D.C., to rally the rank and file in Texas.
“How many times have we been told that Texas was out of reach? How many times have people said it’s impossible?” Shuler asked the crowd. “Well, that’s the exact same thing people tell us on our picket lines. And then we go out and show the world what’s possible.”
Shuler shouted out Taylor Rehmet, a Democrat who serves as president of his IAM local and the state chapter, who successfully flipped Texas Senate District 9 in Tarrant County, and is in a rematch bid in November. The district previously went to Trump by 17 points. Shuler and other labor leaders have pointed to Rehmet as an indicator of what’s possible with a strong working-class message. Even in an anti-union state like Texas where the density of unionized workers is relatively anemic, Shuler says mobilizing the labor vote could be decisive.
“I was here in Houston a week and a half ago knocking doors,” Shuler told the Observer. “The program has really been firing on all cylinders here in Texas. Our hope is that we can make that extra 1- or 2-point margin that can tip the race.”
At the union rally, Talarico promised to support the PRO Act—a top union priority to reform federal labor laws—and take on the billionaire class in Washington. He compared the Senate race to the tale of David and Goliath. “David wasn’t as big or as strong as Goliath,” Talarico said. “But he had hope, he had faith, and he had a slingshot. Organized labor, you are my slingshot!”
Talarico speaks at a labor union election rally in Houston in late October (Eden Shamy)
Talarico capped off the night at the Safari Texas Ranch in Fort Bend—the same venue as Paxton’s the night before, albeit in a much larger room with an estimated attendance of 1,300 people.
In line, retiree Frank Schine told the Observer he’s been following Talarico’s campaign around the state. He said he admires the Democrat’s moral fortitude and feels confident the energy is different this year. “It’s amazing how they can even campaign against him,” Schine said. “I think he’s going to take it.”
Lone Star flags and “Take Back Texas” signs filled the Infinity Ballroom. Talarico’s inspired speech—laden with references to the 2000s-era small-town Texas drama Friday Night Lights—wove together the struggles of everyday people from around the state. A grandmother in Houston facing eviction. A little boy in Abilene awakened by the lights of a data center at night. A small business owner in Port Arthur facing bankruptcy. Together, they assembled the underdog team Talarico is channeling in the last stretch of the race.
“This is the last play of the last drive,” Talarico said. “This is the moment we leave it all on the field.”
The post ‘I’m Feeling Some Trepidation’: Will Talarico Pull Off a Generational Upset over Paxton? appeared first on The Texas Observer.
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