By JULIA FRANKEL and JACK JEFFERY Associated Press

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel.

Israeli officials have not said how or when they might strike. But as countries around the world urge Israel to show restraint and the threat of a multi-front war mounts, it’s clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil would lead to major fallout.

Iran says it carried out the strike to avenge an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. It has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack attack on its soil.

With Israel focused on its war against Hamas in Gaza, and already battling Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon every day, the U.S. has urged Israel to show restraint.

U.S. officials say President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, and the president made “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we do have to think carefully and strategically” about the risks of escalation.

Israel’s war cabinet has spent the last two days debating their next move. Here are some considerations key to their decision.

INCREASING ISRAELI ISOLATION

Israel’s successful air defense Saturday night — conducted in tandem with the U.S., Britain, France and Jordan — bought the country a brief moment of international support and sympathy after months of mounting international isolation over the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe.

A coalition of international partners helped Israel defend itself effectively. Israel’s military says 99% of the weapons were intercepted, with few reaching Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and wounded one person: a 7-year-old girl.

This coalition worked under the leadership of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region. It works closely with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a unified front against Iran.

Jordan, a country whose population is predominantly pro-Palestinian, joined the effort, despite being at odds with Israel over the war in Gaza, calling its participation self-defense.

It also appears likely that help may have come from regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which does not have official relations with Israel. A map released by Israel shows many of the Iranian missiles flying through Saudi airspace.

Israel has been careful not to identify its Arab partners, but an Israeli air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission, said Israeli warplanes needed to fly “east of Israel” to shoot down missiles.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Israel would be risking this goodwill if it acts alone.

“Israel can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now, if it does not launch a massive retaliatory attack,” he said. “But if it does attack, a lot of credit is lost.”

The tacit support of Arab states does not mean they would assist Israel in a counterattack on Iran. Any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles — which would arc over neighboring countries’ airspace rather than through it — would require overflights of surrounding countries, which technically would require Israel obtain permission from those Arab neighbors, said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“With Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there’s kind of a route and access questions,” in terms of whether they would grant Israel overflight clearance.

“From Iran’s point of view, that would be seen as a hostile act,” Byman said. “And even though these countries don’t like Iran, they’re not terribly eager to be seen on the side of Israel doing that.”

FEARS OF A MULTI-FRONT WAR

A major retaliatory strike on Iranian soil risks sparking a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully calculated.

A direct strike on Iranian soil would almost certainly result in a brutal counterattack and risk prompting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas, but has so far shown hesitancy about engaging in an all-out war.

Some 60,000 citizens in northern Israel already have been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah. Heavier fighting would likely force them to spend even more time away from home.

A direct conflict would also further stretch Israel’s military, remove its focus from Gaza and hamper Israel’s war-wearied economy.

Any major attack on Iranian soil could also undermine shaky U.S. support for the war.

Two U.S. officials said Israel has not yet told the U.S. how it intends to respond. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe diplomatic discussions, said Israel has signaled that whatever it does will be designed to prevent a worsening of the already tense regional security situation. That could point to a more limited action, such as a strike on Iranian proxies across the region or a cyber attack on Iran.

Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, says most Israelis are in favor of some sort of military response as long as it is coordinated with regional allies, including the United States.

“If it is done with no consultation and no agreement with allies … support will be much smaller,” Hermann said.

Related Articles

Thomas Friedman: Iran made a big mistake. Israel shouldn’t follow. Now, isolate Iran.

Iran’s attack on Israel sparks race to avert a full-blown war

Israel says Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles, 99% of which were intercepted

Israel bracing for potential direct attack from Iran in days

More aid is supposed to be entering the Gaza Strip. Why isn’t it helping?

MILITARY CAPACITY

Israel’s army is vastly superior to others in the region. It possesses a range of high-tech weaponry, including F35 fighter planes that can launch long-range munitions. Experts say it has the ability to directly strike Iran or its proxies in the region.

Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the Iranian air force is “not even remotely comparable.” He said the force is composed of a collection of planes from the 1980s and 90s, with some dating back to the reign of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who ruled the country until 1979.

The extent of the Islamic republic’s air defense system is less known, he said. Many of Iran’s missile sites and nuclear installations are deep underground, making them difficult to hit, Hindz added. Israel might also need the agreement of Gulf Arab countries to use their airspace — something that is not guaranteed.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a full-scale Israeli attack against many targets all over Iran,” said Raz Zimmt, another senior researcher at Israel’s INSS. “It will probably be limited against one or two, perhaps inside Iran.”

___

Associated Press reporters Matthew Lee and Ellen Knickmeyer contributed from Washington D.C.

Invoking the city’s Climate Action Plan, husband-and-wife homeowners living near the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul have asked the city’s Planning Commission to take a second look at plans for a new 5,500 seat, indoor hockey and basketball arena off Cretin and Grand avenues, where construction work has recently shifted from demolition and site prep to building the foundation.

On April 4, city planning staff approved the site plan for the Lee and Penny Anderson Arena, a future home of the university’s NCAA Division 1 sports teams.

Opponents, mostly nearby homeowners, banding together under the title Advocates for Responsible Development submitted an appeal of that decision to the city on Monday, as did Fairmount Avenue residents Donn Waage and Virginia Housum in a separate filing. The two appeals effectively punt the site plan to the city’s Planning Commission for further review.

Climate Action Plan

Waage, a spokesman for the ARD group, said the city’s 2040 Comprehensive Plan states that new construction on institutional campuses should be compatible with the surrounding neighborhoods.

“We think that was totally ignored,” he said.

The Comprehensive Plan seeks to reduce vehicle miles in St. Paul by 40% by the year 2040 as part of efforts to reduce carbon emissions, and the city’s Climate Action Plan calls for carbon neutrality by the year 2050. The university’s traffic study predicts 3,000 attendees for a typical men’s game, or 775 vehicles per event, and roughly half of that for the typical women’s events. At upwards of 60 events per year, that adds up to more than 135,000 visitors annually, many driving in from outside the city.

“We believe that there are going to be many more than that, but that’s just using their figures,” Waage said.

University officials have noted that while hockey is currently played off-campus, basketball is already played on campus, so not all of those visitors can be counted as new, or added, attendees. There were 18 men’s hockey home games scheduled this year, and 17 games for women’s hockey. There were 14 men’s and 14 women’s basketball games scheduled on campus.

The appeals also focus on technical aspects of the arena’s conditional use permit.

A hearing before the Planning Commission has yet to be scheduled, but city staff on Tuesday confirmed receipt of both appeals.

University of St. Thomas statement

A spokesman for St. Thomas on Tuesday said the university had not yet received copies of either appeal and could not comment on the specific questions raised.

“St. Thomas looks forward to continued progress on this project,” reads an unsigned statement from the university, “which will enhance the student experience on campus and create new opportunities for the community, while helping to raise visibility for the university and the region as a whole.”

With community concerns in mind, St. Thomas has created a web page with frequently asked questions related to the arena at tinyurl.com/StThomasArenaFAQ24.

The Advocates for Responsible Development, which represents some 200 residents and other arena opponents, also is fighting the arena in the courts. They’ve argued that construction should trigger a more elaborate environmental review by the city than the Environmental Assessment Worksheet published last June. Oral arguments before the Minnesota Court of Appeals were held April 11, with a response expected from the court within 90 days.

About 70% of the $183.4 million arena, expected to open in the fall of 2025, is backed by philanthropic giving, including a record $75 million gift to the university from Lee and Penny Anderson. The new playing space will allow the men’s and women’s hockey teams to transition away from the St. Thomas Ice Arena in Mendota Heights, which they share with St. Thomas Academy.

Related Articles

Gold Line work closes part of Johnson Parkway through June. Lanes also closed in downtown St. Paul.

25 years after Nathan Edberg’s truck was found abandoned in Vadnais Heights, search for answers continues

St. Paul man killed in parents’ Chanhassen garage identified

Open house to be held Tuesday on pedestrian improvements to Robert Street

St. Paul police investigating home break-in, sexual assault by armed man in Mac-Groveland

A pair of R&B artists who ruled the ’00s — Ludacris and T-Pain — will share the bill Aug. 27 at the Minnesota State Fair Grandstand.

Tickets are priced from $88 to $44 and go on sale at 10 a.m. Friday through Etix and or phone at 800-514-3849.

Born Christopher Bridges in Illinois, Ludacris began rapping at age nine. After graduating high school, he studied music management at Georgia State University for a year and then self-released his debut album “Incognegro” in 1999. That attracted the attention of Def Jam execs who signed a record deal with Ludacris the following year.

His first two singles, “What’s Your Fantasy” and “Southern Hospitality,” hit the Top 10 on Billboard’s R&B/Hip-hop chart and paved the way for a string of smashes, including “Area Codes,” “Rollout (My Business),” “Welcome to Atlanta,” “Move Bitch” and “Act a Fool.” His singles “Stand Up” and “Money Maker” topped the Billboard Hot 100.

As a guest artist, Ludacris contributed to Chingy’s “Holidae In,” Usher’s “Yeah,” Fergie’s “Glamorous,” Justin Bieber’s “Baby,” Taio Cruz’s “Break Your Heart” and Enrique Iglesias’ “Tonight.”

After landing a role in 2003’s “2 Fast 2 Furious,” Ludacris began a film career on the side, landing more than two dozen roles from six of the “Fast and Furious” sequels to “Crash” to “Fred Claus.” More recently, Ludacris created the animated children’s series “Karma’s World,” which ran for four seasons on Netflix.

T-Pain

Florida native Faheem Najm adopted his stage name T-Pain to reflect what he called the “Tallahassee Pain” he endured growing up.

After starting his career with the rap group Nappy Headz, T-Pain went solo with his 2004 debut mixtape “Back @ It,” which helped him score a deal with Akon’s label Konvict Muzik. While working on his first studio album, T-Pain began singing instead of rapping and experimenting with the heavy use of Auto-Tune, which quickly became his trademark.

T-Pain’s sophomore record “Epiphany” went double platinum and included his two biggest singles, “Buy U a Drank (Shawty Snappin’)” and “Bartender.” While he hasn’t had a significant hit in more than a decade, T-Pain has appeared in several Adult Swim shows and won the first season of “The Masked Singer.” He dropped Auto-Tune for his most recent album “On Top of the Covers,” which includes his takes on “Don’t Stop Believin’,” “Tennessee Whiskey” and “That’s Life.”

Other Grandstand performers include Chance the Rapper, Nate Bargatze, Blake Shelton, the Happy Together Tour, Motley Crue, Matchbox Twenty and Kidz Bop Live. The final three shows will be announced in the coming weeks.

Related Articles

Minnesota Chorale joins Minnesota Orchestra for energetic program

Prince’s band the Revolution to play First Avenue for the first time in seven years

Aerosmith’s farewell tour will now hit Xcel Energy Center in January

Matchbox Twenty added to Minnesota State Fair Grandstand lineup

Upcoming Minnesota Orchestra season to celebrate Nordic composers, 50 years of Orchestra Hall