How climate is helping repair the U.S.-China relationship

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BEIJING — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s trip to China this week was billed as a climate mission, but he also engaged in high level governmental discussions on forced labor in Xinjiang, the repression of democracy in Hong Kong and fentanyl exports.

The Democratic governor — who has little foreign policy experience — showed his ability to use an area where China and California are aligned around climate as a conversation starter for thornier diplomatic concerns typically handled by Washington.

“There was an animated part of the meeting that was around this issue” of fentanyl, Newsom told reporters after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday. Newsom said he and Xi discussed the need to stem the flow of fentanyl ingredients out of China and into Mexico through the black market.

Earlier in the day Newsom met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng. In those meetings, he brought up China’s human rights violations, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and policies towards Tibet and Taiwan.

Before the trip, the governor’s office said Newsom considered these areas federal issues and would instead focus on climate policy and technology.

As it turns out, climate opened the door for Newsom to engage with China on a host of other topics — from trade to the Israel-Hamas war to a Californian imprisoned in the country for 17 years. The sitdown — the first between a U.S. governor and Xi in four years — also smooths the path for a potential meeting between the Chinese leader and President Joe Biden in San Francisco next month. The broad discussion was a major win for Newsom, a top surrogate for Biden’s reelection who could launch his own presidential bid in 2028, and for U.S.-China relations that have been at a low point.

In a press conference after his meetings Wednesday, Newsom called the havoc wrought by climate change “a forcing function for collaboration.” Throughout the week he’s brought up air pollution, floods and the wildfires that have torn through California towns over the past few years.

In discussions with local and national leaders in China this week, Newsom has focused on “low-carbon green growth.” It’s an area of climate action that’s less likely to be met with resistance than pushing China on coal and methane reductions, which have been points of contention in discussions with U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and at recent UN climate conferences.

Climate has often been a high point in relations between China and the U.S. — even when other issues were fraught.

It’s difficult to imagine nearly 200 countries would have inked the Paris climate agreement in 2015 without the U.S. and China announcing joint plans to cut planet-heating greenhouse gases. It marked the first time China, the world’s largest current climate polluter, agreed it should take steps to slow emissions.

But it’s been a long time since then-President Barack Obama and Xi took the stage together in 2014 in Beijing to announce a joint deal on climate change. Rather than converging on climate priorities, the U.S. and China have been drifting apart.

When Kerry became climate envoy he was clear the U.S. would not trade climate for other issues, such as anti-democracy crackdowns in Hong Kong or China’s military tactics to stake out territory in the South China Sea.

Yet geopolitics got in the way last year when Beijing suspended climate talks with Washington over then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Concerns over Chinese intellectual property and technology theft and a desire to sever U.S. clean tech dependence on China have more recently slowed collaborations on clean energy and imperiled the climate fight.

“The U.S. is bent on compartmentalizing issues with China,” said Cory Combs, a policy research consultant with expertise on China. “So for example, it wants to talk fentanyl on one hand in a cooperative manner because it needs China. On tech, especially semiconductors, the U.S. has a very aggressive policy to make sure that China does not gain certain technological abilities for national security reasons.”

“Beijing has made extremely clear that it is tired of this compartmentalization,” Combs said. “They’ve put up a really consistent front that they will cooperate with the U.S. if the U.S. wants to be cooperative, and they will not if the U.S. does not.”

There’s been some climate rapprochement in recent months with visits by several Biden administration officials, including Kerry, but the results have been few. For example, China hasn’t yet finalized a plan to curb methane as part of a pact it reached with the U.S. at UN talks in 2021.

Much of the stalemate is tied to frostier relations. Experts say China doesn’t want to be seen bending to U.S. pressure to deliver on climate.

That Newsom was able to meet with Xi was “a big stake in the ground” on the side of engagement, said Alex Wang, co-director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change at UCLA. Even Kerry didn’t get the opportunity.

That may have much to do with Newsom’s distance from Beltway politics. While China hawks in Washington have emphasized the need to outcompete China in areas such as clean energy and critical minerals, Newsom has prioritized cooperation. There are still tensions that affect California, including Chinese dominance of electric vehicle production.

After his meetings with Xi and other Chinese officials, Newsom said Californians could hope to see more two-way trade, direct investment and economic development. “I’m mindful of the strategic red lines in our relationship,” he said. “But I’m also mindful that we’re more than capable of managing them.”

When asked if Californians could expect to see more Chinese cars on their roads in the future, he said, “I do see a future, but we have to shape that future in the context of free trade agreements.”

While federal relations are chilly, Newsom’s visit shows progress is possible with Chinese provinces and mayors away from the scrutiny of official diplomacy, said Joanna Lewis, a professor at Georgetown University who closely tracks U.S. and China climate engagement.

“Any dialogue that happens outside of Washington and Beijing by default just tends to be more open and frank,” she said.

California is unique in that its large consumer market and regulatory zeal gives it outsized heft for a non-federal government. For years, under both Democratic and Republican governors, the state has signed memorandums of understanding with Chinese provinces.

Many Chinese national party leaders have connections to California from their days striking agreements with the state when they were local leaders, like Vice President Han Zheng, who was mayor of Shanghai back when Newsom traveled there as mayor of San Francisco with Dianne Feinstein in 2005.

“The China-U.S. relationship is the most important bilateral relations in the world and the subnational cooperation is an indispensable part,” said Zheng in introductory remarks to his meeting with Newsom on Wednesday.

Whether Newsom’s visit will help advance the broader climate agenda between the U.S. and China isn’t yet clear.

But it will likely help pave the way for Xi to meet with Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco next month. A meeting between Biden and Xi at the G20 in Indonesia last November was seen as helping smooth UN climate talks happening at the same time in Egypt.

“We cannot underestimate the political difficulties for the two sides at the federal level,” said Li Shuo, global policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia. “They’re each very constrained by their domestic politics.”

The U.S. wants to see China go far further toward tackling its methane emissions and ending the build out of new coal-fired power. China is the world’s largest current emitter, with the U.S. in second place (and first if you account for historical emissions), but it’s also leading investments in renewable energy. California, for its part, is leading the U.S. on clean energy technology and policy.

Newsom’s visit is widening areas of cooperation in a way that could lead to progress. “I liked the approach that Newsom is taking, which is to find the places where we can work together productively and that hopefully that can lead to some movement on the other areas that right now are seen to be just at a loggerheads,” Wang said.

Opinion | The Unexpected Climate Policy That Could Tackle Both National Debt and China

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Democrats want to address climate change. Republicans want to tackle our national debt. Both sides are concerned about China.

There’s a way to deal with all three issues: putting a price on carbon.

Europe is already ahead of the game. This month, the E.U. expanded the reach of its longstanding domestic carbon pricing system by instituting a carbon price at their border, creating a first-ever global incentive for other countries to charge polluters for their carbon dioxide emissions. This comes as adoption of carbon prices is steadily increasing around the world — especially among U.S. allies and trading partners — with nearly 25 percent of global emissions now covered.

Despite all this, and the fact that policy leaders have long considered carbon pricing an essential solution in the fight against climate change, the U.S. has not yet moved to impose its own carbon price, largely due to a historically challenging political landscape. This has led some to write off the idea altogether. However, the potential for carbon pricing to address two other major U.S. challenges — our soaring national debt, and an increasingly aggressive China — in addition to the climate, could create a new and unique alignment of interests that make the politics finally click in Washington.

From a fiscal standpoint, carbon pricing would be an effective tool for alleviating our growing budgetary pressures. Implementing a carbon fee would generate substantial revenue, without hampering economic growth. Even if some of the revenues were used to provide rebates, and to fund provisions to protect vulnerable communities such as coal workers, significant dollars could be directed to cutting the deficit.

Especially as lawmakers grapple with how to address our increasingly dire fiscal outlook, carbon pricing could be the cornerstone of a bipartisan “grand bargain” deal, where conservatives can claim significant reductions in the deficit, and liberals can tout a major climate policy achievement.

Assuming the need to raise additional revenue — as most budget experts assert we must do along with spending cuts — a carbon fee is far and away the best solution, including for fiscal conservatives. Economists have long argued that taxes should target what we want less of, not what we want more of. A simple tax on carbon pollution would be far superior to the other likely revenue-raisers: substantial increases in income and corporate taxes that would burden workers and businesses.

From a geopolitical standpoint, carbon pricing could also play a vital role in countering China’s expanding economic and military influence. Recent research indicates that American manufacturers are much less carbon-pollutive than their Chinese counterparts — more than three times so. But current rules of global trade grant them and other foreign producers a free pass to undercut our industries by manufacturing cheap goods with far lower environmental standards.

Assessing a carbon price on the pollution of U.S. imports — with a border carbon price — would address this disparity, and deny Chinese companies an unfair leg up in global markets. Especially as recently made investments in decarbonization make the U.S. more carbon-efficient, the U.S. would be wise to implement a border-adjusted carbon price in order to monetize our clean manufacturing advantage and address the economics that fuel the CCP regime.

With the E.U. carbon border price now coming into effect, a growing, bipartisan group of senators is laying the groundwork for the U.S. to follow suit. By aligning a hawkish stance toward China with greater climate ambition, this trade-centered approach has already brought together a unique convergence of political interests, opening a window of opportunity to drive bipartisan collaboration.

Finally, when it comes to tackling climate change, economy-wide carbon pricing remains the most effective tool in our toolbox because it directly disincentives the pollution at the root of the climate challenge. As opposed to subsidies or tax credits, this approach would harness the power of market forces to swiftly and efficiently reduce emissions and accelerate technological innovation and deployment.

It is also an effective hedge against increasingly costly natural disasters and extreme weather events. These impacts are already placing significant strain on public budgets, costs that will balloon to the hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming years. This isn’t even to mention the loss of economic activity that typically follows such disasters.

These staggering costs will wreak financial havoc not only on states and localities, but the federal government, which typically foots a significant portion of the bill for recovery and rebuilding. As the prospect of this financial toll becomes clearer — especially against the backdrop of the broader U.S. fiscal outlook — it could compel lawmakers in both parties to adopt greater mitigation measures like carbon pricing, to stave off the worst of these impacts while they can still be avoided.

That’s why, after a summer of historic heat waves, wildfires and weather events, calls for the adoption of carbon pricing are increasing, even in light of the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage last year. This includes leaders in climate philanthropy — like Bill Gates and Andrew Steerglobal finance, and even African governments, who recently issued a unanimous statement in its support.

Of course, achieving consensus around this policy will not happen overnight, nor without hurdles. Inflation and high fuel prices have made both parties cautious about placing a direct disincentive on the use of fossil fuels. Further, progressives’ resistance to market-based policies has grown, and some within my own party continue to resist any meaningful climate policy discussion, complicating an already challenging political landscape.

As one of the few Republicans in Congress who joined my Democratic colleagues in introducing carbon pricing legislation, I am keenly aware of the tall political obstacles around this solution. But, the salience of these three critical issues — climate change, the national debt and China’s ascent — will only continue to grow in the coming years, demanding action from lawmakers. A well-crafted carbon pricing policy could offer a rare opportunity to address them at the same time.

Leaders from both parties should seize on this opening, challenge preconceived notions about political feasibility and provide the pragmatic, common-sense leadership that America needs to tackle these critical challenges head-on.

‘Who’s Mike Johnson?’: Diplomats scratch their heads at new speaker

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As the votes for Rep. Mike Johnson to become House speaker piled up, diplomats who work closely with Washington were left scratching their heads … and Googling. And Googling some more.

“Mike Johnson?” replied one member of the British shadow Cabinet, blankly, before a long pause. “Who’s Mike Johnson?”

Johnson’s election as House speaker Wednesday afternoon put him on the track to becoming a household name in Washington. And the new position is guaranteed to bolster the Louisiana Republican’s international profile — though it will likely take time.

Another U.K. diplomat, who works on U.S. policy, was slightly more informed or at least, well, diplomatic. The individual said they were “aware” of Johnson, “but let’s say he certainly wasn’t an obvious candidate a week ago.”

Since entering Congress in 2016, Johnson has been relatively quiet on foreign policy issues. Still, he’s a member of the House Armed Services Committee and took a strong stance on Ukraine by voting against sending Kyiv a $40 billion package last year. He’s also something of a China hawk, having introduced at least two bills targeting China: one that would bar ex-members of Congress from lobbying on behalf of communist entities, and another that would prevent foreign governments from funding litigation in U.S. courts.

Yet in Dublin, where politicians frequently cross the Atlantic to cultivate political ties with American counterparts, POLITICO couldn’t identify any lawmakers who’d ever met Johnson.

When asked if he’d heard of the lawmaker, a senior Irish government adviser said he hadn’t — and turned to Wikipedia to find out. “Just a minute, don’t tell me, I’m curious how blood-red his state might be.”

But it turns out the world has produced many Mike Johnsons. After a few minutes of typing on his smartphone, the Irish adviser — “Hold on! Don’t spoil the suspense,” he pleaded — had found listings for a half-dozen politicians named Mike Johnson, many more professional athletes, a serial killer and an Oregon punk rocker.

“It says this Mike Johnson used to front a band called Snakepit. That sounds perfect to be the next speaker,” he said.

The official and others were granted anonymity to speak freely about U.S. internal affairs.

Johnson represents a district that exports at least a quarter billion dollars in goods to Canada. Yet, in Ottawa, news of his victory generated zero buzz on Parliament Hill.

POLITICO talked to five MPs from various parties and none recognized Johnson’s name.

When asked for comment on Johnson’s foreign policy priorities or his interactions with foreign counterparts, Griffin Neal, Johnson’s press secretary, had an understandable response: “Things are a bit hectic right now.”

It’s unclear whether the lack of international profile will be a boon or a stumbling block for Johnson as he tries to pull together a consensus among a divided party about how to handle issues from Ukraine, to the weeks-old Israel-Hamas war to how to rein in China.

Despite Johnson’s record, Ukrainian politicians, at least publicly, don’t seem too worried about the new speaker.

“Whoever the American people or their representatives choose, we will work with them and look forward to fruitful cooperation,” said Yehor Cherniev, deputy chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence, before the speakership vote.

Cherniev added that he had heard “not too much” of Johnson before Wednesday.

President Joe Biden linked Israeli and Ukrainian aid together in his $106 billion request to Congress last week, a matter Johnson will have to navigate as several Republicans staunchly opposed the measure.

The Louisiana Republican appeared to agree with Biden’s Oval Office speech announcing the aid package, tweeting that the president’s remarks “only confirms the urgent need for the U.S. to act in support of our great ally, Israel, as they fight against Hamas terrorists.”

He continued: “We must elect a Speaker so the House can take all necessary action to end Hamas forever.”

But Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Johnson won’t be allowed to bring up a bill linking the two wars because “more than half the conference opposes it,” according to NBC News.

One leading European diplomat in Washington shrugged off the news of Johnson’s ascendance as just the usual political grind.

“We’ll now obviously send a congratulatory message. We’re obviously keen to know how he’s going to handle the supplemental and the other bits of legislation needed to get through, but we’re not going to do anything out of the ordinary,” said the diplomat, adding, for good measure: “It’s a very important job.”

In a text message, a former longtime diplomat in Washington admitted he hadn’t heard about the speaker results until POLITICO reached out. And he had to do more research.

“This is funny,” he said. “I only found out who you’re talking about by Googling his name.” He was granted anonymity because it isn’t a good look — to say the least — in D.C. not to have heard of the person who’s about to take on one of the most powerful jobs in Washington.

Zi-Ann Lum, Nahal Toosi, Connor O’Brien and Joe Gould contributed to this report.

The Ravens heard the Lions’ noise and had a ‘chip’ on their shoulder. The result? ‘The score is the judge.’

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The Ravens heard the roar.

The Detroit Lions came into Sunday’s game against Baltimore with just one loss, averaging 28 points per game and having racked up at least 350 yards of offense every week. They also arrived at M&T Bank Stadium with headlines and hype as one of the best teams in the NFL.

It wasn’t lost on Ravens players.

“I’m from the ‘show me’ business,” linebacker Roquan Smith said. “A lot of things happened here and there, but you have to show me once we’re on the field. I don’t believe in all the things you hear and say. Like I said, that team hadn’t been tested just yet, so that’s what it was.

“I think the score is the judge, as well as … They got cheap yards at the end, but hats off to just the way we played as a team, and I’m just proud to be a part of it.”

That score, a 38-6 drubbing, was a statement — of a Ravens offense finally delivering the kind of explosive performance it hadn’t come close to this season, and of a defense that continues to find ways to sack the quarterback, create turnovers and stifle opposing offenses.

The Ravens came into the ballyhooed showdown with the Lions having given up 15.2 points per game. That number is now 13.8 after the Ravens allowed a meaningless fourth-quarter touchdown when the outcome was all but decided.

Was this a statement win?

“[It was] a statement for the outsiders who don’t quite know exactly what we’re about,” Smith said. “As far as the guys in the locker room, we had faith all week. Once we got back from London we knew exactly what were had at hand and we went out and handled business from Monday to Sunday.”

Smith also had a message for his teammates in the pregame huddle, a role he has taken on this season.

“I was telling those guys it was our house at the end of the day,” he said. “They say it was lions and they were coming to the bank. It wasn’t a den. I talked to team security and told them lock the doors and we’ll decide when we want to let ‘em out.”

They heard him.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns and ran for a score. Running back Gus Edwards had 14 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown along with one catch for 80 yards. Tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Zay Flowers had four catches apiece, for 63 and 75 yards, respectively, with Andrews scoring twice.

“We definitely heard [the noise],” Edwards said of the Lions. “They are a good defense, but we came to play today. During practice all week we did keep that chip on our shoulder, of the type of game it was going to be. … They played a good game, but we played better.”

Defensively, the Ravens held quarterback Jared Goff to 2 passing yards in the first quarter and 99 in the first half. They also sacked him five times and intercepted him once.

The Lions’ vaunted run defense, which entered giving up an NFL-low 64.7 yards per game, was gashed for 146 Sunday. They also didn’t record a sack on Jackson, barely pressured him all day and allowed Ravens receivers to run free.

“We knew we were gonna play a tough team, and they are a tough team,” Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley said. “Credit to them for the games that they’ve won [but] I think everyone in here knows we’re not worried about the talk about the teams we play. We’re just trying to play to our potential and be the best team we can be.”

Last week’s trip to London, in which the Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans, 24-16, but needed six field goals to do so, perhaps helped.

“To be there for a week, our hotel was kind of out of the way, there’s not a lot of technology. We kind of built some camaraderie and more chemistry,” Stanley said. “Come back and you have everything at your disposal you feel a little bit rejuvenated.”

And motivated.

Edwards said players were “flying around practice” this week. He also noted accountability, from receivers doing extra work after there were seven dropped passes two weeks ago in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, to finishing off drives this week against the Lions after failing to do so against the Titans.

“This is an important part of our season and we reacted well coming off a long trip to London,” Edwards said. “I feel like we bounced back great, but we haven’t reached our full potential yet.”

Up next: A trip to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals (1-6).

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