Newsom has an ambitious plan for gun violence. It isn’t going anywhere.

posted in: News | 0

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Gov. Gavin Newsom will need to do more than tweet to secure a constitutional amendment on gun restrictions.

The Democratic governor reinserted himself into the national gun debate this week after a mass shooting in Maine with a post on X condemning Republicans’ failure to act. But aside from his regular social media broadsides, Newsom has made little obvious progress outside of California over the past five months on his likely futile effort to inscribe gun restrictions into the U.S. constitution.

The governor’s aides say they are gathering support from other state leaders and have been in touch with Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey’s office. Newsom first proposed the idea in June, and more than a month after the California Legislature approved it, no leaders from other Democratic states — let alone Republican ones — have joined the effort that requires passing resolutions on the measure.

The lack of progress is deepening doubts about Newsom’s ambitious crusade — and calling into question the motives of someone with presidential ambitions.

“It’s good politics,” said Eric Jaye, a Democratic campaign consultant who has worked both for and against Newsom. “I don’t think many people who have looked at this closely think there’s a very good chance.”

Newsom has proposed a constitutional convention to adopt an amendment that would require background checks, raise the gun-buying age and ban assault weapons. That would need the approval of 34 state legislatures — including 15 that are currently partially or fully controlled by Republicans. After introducing the idea in June, Newsom won approval by his own legislature, but he’s taken few overt steps to recruit other states, even as he regularly posts on X calling for action and lambasting Republicans.

“We need to amend the Constitution to help prevent tragedies like this,” he wrote on Wednesday.

On Thursday, Newsom invoked the Maine tragedy in a donor solicitation email reiterating his commitment to seeing resolutions pass in other states. “Will it be easy?” he wrote. “Of course not.”

He also addressed the issue at the U.S. Embassy in China, where he’s been on a weeklong trip about climate change. “I’m gonna call out gun violence United States of America,” he said, adding, “There’s no other place in planet earth that sees these mass shootings and it’s excused and it’s accepted.”

He referenced two mass shootings in California early this year that involved Asian communities, saying the the incidents brought home issues of gun violence in a “very raw and emotional way.”

Legal scholars and political operatives view Newsom’s push for a constitutional convention as improbable, given the basic political math, and risky, because the unprecedented gathering could open the door to a barrage of unrelated and possibly conservative policies.

So far, the concrete gains have been limited to California. Newsom had no trouble persuading the state’s resoundingly Democratic Legislature to pass a resolution calling for a constitutional convention.

That was the first, easy step in a much more arduous journey. Newsom’s campaign has made preliminary moves in advancing the cause by reaching out to legislators in other states, spokesperson Nathan Click said, hoping to persuade them to take up the mantle when legislative sessions resume next year.

“We’re in the relationship-building phase,” Click said.

Izzy Gardon, a spokesperson for the governor, said Newsom is “actively working with local and state leaders across the nation to advance a fundamental right to safety from gun violence.”

Some leaders in other key Democratic strongholds seemed unaware of such a push.

A spokesperson for Healey confirmed that Newsom reached out. But Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s office told POLITICO he had not been contacted by Newsom about a constitutional amendment.

A spokesperson for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul did not respond to requests for comment on the issue, but state lawmakers in Albany have already signaled an unwillingness to call a constitutional convention — repealing decades-old votes out of fear that conservatives could use them to overhaul the U.S. Constitution.

Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer (D-Los Angeles), who carried the California resolution for Newsom, said in an interview that while he believed the Maine shooting could galvanize the campaign, he had not conferred with the governor’s team on expanding into other states.

“We have not sat down to come up with a comprehensive plan or strategy,” Jones-Sawyer said.

California is one of 19 states where Democrats wield legislative majorities. The fact that Democrats who control Maine’s Legislature helped vote down the gun restrictions Newsom referenced in his post — a waiting period for firearm purchases — indicates the scale of the challenge.

The governor and his team have readily acknowledged that the constitutional quest is a long shot, even conceding that point in a September solicitation to donors saying he was “clear-eyed” about the long odds. Click emphasized that the outreach to other states will unfold over the course of years.

The governor’s advisers believe there is merit in forcing a national conversation, akin to how then-San Francisco Mayor Newsom’s decision to issue same-sex marriage licenses 20 years ago helped spark movement toward national marriage equality — an outcome that seemed remote in 2004.

“We’re sick of being on the defense and throwing up our hands,” Newsom told POLITICO in June. “We want to go on the offense.”

Skepticism abounds behind the scenes, even among California Democrats who share Newsom’s frustration with a national gun policy stalemate.

“It’s a hundred-year play that’s never going to happen,” said a Democratic political consultant who was granted anonymity to avoid jeopardizing a relationship with the governor.

Still, Newsom has been raising money for the constitutional convention campaign. In an email last week, he told prospective donors their contributions would be used to hire lobbyists, run advertisements and bolster on-the-ground organizing.

“All of that takes money,” the email said.

That paid work had not begun by the end of June, according to campaign finance filings for the Campaign for Democracy, a committee that is spearheading both the constitutional amendment push and Newsom’s parallel foray into red states, in which he is seeking to boost Democrats in often-neglected parts of the country.

Paperwork showed the campaign had paid California staff and channeled money to out-of-state accounts, like the Arkansas Democratic Party and Texas Rep. Colin Allred’s Senate bid, but did not reflect expenditures on lobbying other state legislatures.

Some progressive Democrats and constitutional scholars have urged Newsom to switch his approach. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco), normally a resolute Newsom ally, refused to vote for the constitutional resolution out of fears “extremists” could hijack the effort to roll back reproductive and LGBTQ rights. Those same fears are what makes New York lawmakers weary of the move.

UCLA Professor Adam Winkler, an expert in constitutional law and gun policy, considers Newsom’s push to be symbolic.

“I don’t think he seriously believes we’re going to get a constitutional amendment anytime soon,” Winkler said. “If he does, he hasn’t spent enough time studying American politics.”

Shia Kapos and Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this story.

What we’ve learned about Mike Johnson so far

posted in: News | 0

Speaker Mike Johnson, who suddenly went from No. 7 in the House Republican leadership to No. 2 in the presidential line of succession, is learning in real time what it means to be the speaker of the House.

“He realizes that there’s a lot of work ahead of us,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), a centrist frontliner whom Johnson called Thursday morning.

The new speaker has major challenges ahead, including a government shutdown deadline that’s now just three weeks away, but here’s what we’ve been able to learn from his first full day on the job:

He isn’t getting a honeymoon: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) wasted no time before plopping a political hot potato right in Johnson’s lap, signaling Thursday she will be introducing a measure to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) for her support for a recent pro-Palestinian protest on the Capitol campus.

Meanwhile, Democrats are threatening a countermove that would censure Greene, while Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) said he is separately planning to call up a resolution next week to expel embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.). In the middle of it all is Johnson, who will need to balance the right’s desire to punish a left-wing member, the prospect for Democratic retribution and the possibility that his own slim majority could get slimmer.

He can expect some grace from the right: As we wrote in yesterday’s Huddle, Johnson won’t necessarily face the same pressures from conservatives that predecessor Kevin McCarthy did as he seeks a way forward on government funding. Most hard-right members said they are willing to give Johnson room to maneuver on a continuing resolution given (1) the short timeline and (2) his own history as a conservative hard-liner.

He might have more trouble, however, navigating the White House’s $106 billion supplemental funding request for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the border. While many Republicans want to keep those issues combined, conservatives are quickly hardening their stance around keeping Ukraine out of the package.

He’s still finding his footing as a top leader: Johnson is still low on the learning curve for the more public-facing aspects of the speakership. His first on-camera moment in the international spotlight, a Thursday morning confab with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, involved one word and a lot of nodding.

“I made a joke last night at the dinner that it might be too late for me to address the Congress,” Albanese joked. “Unfortunately,” Johnson responded, remaining silent as reporters and photographers were escorted from the room.

Later, Johnson was waylaid in the Will Rogers hallway by reporters seeking reaction to the mass shooting in Maine on Wednesday night. He stopped, but had to be coaxed in front of cameras and kept one hand clutched around a portfolio and the other in his pocket as he delivered brief remarks focused on the need for prayer.

He’s plotting a careful media strategy. In the not-quite two days since he was elected speaker nominee, Johnson has spoken in broad platitudes and brushed off pointed questions in his brief appearances before reporters. On Tuesday night, he responded to a question about the Supreme Court brief he authored in support of reviewing the 2020 presidential election with, “We’re not doing policy tonight,” and gave a similar response the next day.

He also took no questions during his two appearances before cameras Thursday, saving his first in-depth interview as speaker for the friendly confines of Sean Hannity’s prime-time Fox News Channel program.

He’s trying to balance a busy schedule with a cranky conference: Lawmakers are now in Washington for the seventh straight week — an unusually long stretch, even without the stress of an internecine speaker battle — but they have little time to rest given the looming Nov. 17 appropriations deadline.

Johnson and fellow House leaders canceled a planned two-week recess to continue work on spending bills shortly after he took the oath Wednesday. He did offer members a short breather, giving them a long weekend at home, with votes not resuming until Wednesday.

Some members joked he could still do more: “I think a big party with a lot of beer would unite [us],” said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.).

A Red Sox fan’s guide to the World Series

posted in: News | 0

The World Series is here, and the Red Sox won’t be involved. Instead, the baseball world will watch as the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks square off to determine this year’s champion.

You know, just like we all predicted.

It’s hard to imagine many World Series matchups as improbable as this one. Entering the year both Texas and Arizona were coming off losing seasons and on multiple occasions each looked like it was cooked. Things were especially dire after the two clubs fell behind 3-2 in their respective league championship series, but then both went on the road and won two straight to deny their opponents a second (or third) consecutive pennant.

It should be an exciting series, but if you’re from New England why should you care?

Even if the Red Sox aren’t playing there are still plenty of relevant storylines that should interest fans. Here are a few to watch as the Fall Classic kicks off.

Old friends on big stage

Nathan Eovaldi is no stranger to the bright lights of October, and after leading the Red Sox on two deep postseason runs during his time in Boston, the right-hander is now playing a starring role for the Rangers.

Eovaldi has been lights out since signing with Texas this past offseason and has carried the Rangers throughout their playoff run. Through four starts Eovaldi is 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 26 innings, posting a quality start each time out and pitching the Rangers to a critical Game 6 victory in Houston. He will start Game 1 for Texas on Friday night.

Beyond Eovaldi the Rangers also feature former Red Sox left-hander Martin Perez, who pitched for the 2021 club that reached the ALCS. Perez posted a 4.45 ERA in 35 games (20 starts) this season and appeared in two games out of the bullpen for the Rangers in the ALCS.

On the other side, former Red Sox outfielder Tommy Pham has had an interesting journey since leaving Boston this past offseason. The 35-year-old signed with the New York Mets and was initially expected to be a platoon bat off the bench, but instead he emerged as one of New York’s best bats. He was traded at the deadline as part of the Mets’ midseason selloff and is now a fixture in the middle of the Diamondbacks’ order.

The Diamondbacks are also run by former Red Sox general manager Mike Hazen, who recently signed an extension to remain in Arizona rather than pursue his former team’s head of baseball operations position. Now in his seventh year in the desert, Hazen’s executed an impressive rebuild and now has the Diamondbacks set up to contend for years to come.

Checking out potential new friends?

Besides checking in on former Red Sox players who have moved on, fans might be interested in scouting possible offseason targets who could potentially come to Boston this winter.

The most notable name to watch is Jordan Montgomery. Acquired at the trade deadline from St. Louis, the Rangers starter has been excellent this October, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in five games (four starts). More importantly for the Red Sox, he’s also a proven workhorse who has made 30 or more starts in three straight seasons and just racked up a career-high 188.2 innings this past year.

For reference, Brayan Bello led the Red Sox in innings with 157 this year, and no Red Sox starter has thrown 185 or more innings since Eduardo Rodriguez in 2019 (203.1).

Beyond Montgomery there aren’t any obvious free agent or trade targets, but one other possibility is Diamondbacks outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The pending free agent hit 24 home runs with 35 doubles this year, earning his first All-Star nod along the way, and would be an option if the Red Sox decided to move on from both Alex Verdugo and Adam Duvall.

A blueprint for Boston?

If it feels like the Red Sox are a long way from championship contention, the Rangers are a good reminder that a club’s fortunes can change in a hurry.

Last year the Rangers lost 94 games. The year before that they lost 102. Texas hadn’t even posted a winning record since 2016, but this year their recent aggressiveness paid off and now they’re four wins from capturing their first World Series in franchise history.

How did they do it? By supplementing an impressive homegrown core with big outside investments. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien have more than lived up to their big contracts, and even if Texas’ big bet on Jacob deGrom blew up, the club doubled down by bringing in Eovaldi and later Montgomery and Max Scherzer to ensure it had the arms to compete.

There’s nothing stopping the Red Sox from executing a similar playbook, so even if it feels like Boston is years away the Rangers should inspire hope that things could flip faster than many fans expect.

How Republicans plan to flip the Dobbs effect on Dems

posted in: News | 0

For Republicans, the end of Roe v. Wade has gone from a cause for celebration to something they’d rather not talk about.

Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in June 2022, the GOP has repeatedly paid a price electorally.

Voters shot down anti-abortion measures in red states like Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, and Montana.

And in the 2022 midterms the Dobbs decision clearly contributed to the party’s lackluster results.

Now on the presidential primary campaign trail, Republicans have been in disarray:

Early in his campaign, Sen. Tim Scott couldn’t figure out what he believed on the issue; Donald Trump has belittled Ron DeSantis’s six-week ban in Florida; and then there’s the general dodginess of Nikki Haley, who claims to be “unapologetically pro-life” but also thinks the right abortion policy is to “find consensus.”

The chaos has been dispiriting to the anti-abortion activists who helped engineer the Dobbs decision in the first place. And now they think they have a new political strategy to get Republicans out of their defensive crouch and to start winning again on this issue.

The woman leading this effort is Marjorie Dannenfelser, the head of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the most important institutions in the GOP firmament.

She’s known as the woman who killed Roe.

Dannenfelser and her colleagues are plotting, financing, and staffing the Republican Party’s counterattack on abortion. Playbook co-author and Deep Dive host Ryan Lizza sat down with her at SBA’s Virginia headquarters this week, partly because she had some news she wanted to share about how and where anti-abortion activists are making their first big move.