The Ravens played their best game of the season to rout the Detroit Lions, 38-6. The Cardinals fell to 1-6 with a 20-10 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Who will have the advantage Sunday?

Ravens passing game vs. Cardinals pass defense

Lamar Jackson played one of the best games of his career against the Lions, completing 21 of 27 passes for 357 yards and three touchdowns. He made use of excellent pass protection from a healthy offensive line, patiently waiting for his receivers to pop open and finding them with pinpoint accuracy. Even when the Lions did pinch in on him, Jackson danced away from trouble and identified the right target. He used the threat of runs to draw the defense to him, then beat it with throws into abandoned spaces. Six Ravens, including fullback Patrick Ricard and running back Gus Edwards, caught passes of 20 yards or longer. For all that wondrous variety, tight end Mark Andrews (five touchdowns, 19 first downs on 28 catches) and wide receiver Zay Flowers (at least 50 receiving yards in every game) have settled in as Jackson’s most consistent targets. After a cold spell in the red zone, the Ravens scored touchdowns five of the six times they reached it. They’re also fifth in the league with a 46.3% conversion rate on third down.

The Cardinals cannot be happy to see Jackson coming to town after Seattle’s Geno Smith beat them efficiently, completing 18 of 24 for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona has the league’s second worst pass defense by DVOA, allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Cardinals blitz on just 20.9% of dropbacks and rank last in pressure percentage, per Pro-Football-Reference, a bad formula against Jackson. Outside linebacker Dennis Gardeck has been their most productive pass rusher with four sacks and six quarterback hits. Marco Wilson and rookie Kei’Trel Clark grade among the most vulnerable cornerbacks in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker requested a trade earlier this year but played every snap against the Seahawks after spending the previous four weeks on injured reserve.

EDGE: Ravens

Cardinals passing game vs. Ravens pass defense

The Cardinals have slightly exceeded expectations as they wait for franchise quarterback Kyler Murray to return from a torn ACL. They activated Murray but are expected to take their time ramping him up to start. That means the Ravens will see Joshua Dobbs, who has averaged a meager 5.9 yards per attempt with six touchdown passes and three interceptions in seven starts. The Ravens will take on a familiar face in Dobbs’ top target, Marquise Brown, who leads the Cardinals with 32 catches, 383 yards and three touchdowns. Rookie Michael Wilson has been a productive complement to Brown, averaging 16.3 yards per catch. Dobbs frequently targeted veteran tight end Zach Ertz, but he went on injured reserve this week. Arizona’s offensive linemen don’t grade well as pass blockers, according to Pro Football Focus, but Dobbs has taken a modest 15 sacks.

He’ll take on a Ravens defense that leads the league with 29 sacks after piling up five more against Detroit. They succeeded in disrupting quarterback Jared Goff’s rhythm early, using the stunts and simulated pressures that have worked so well for them all season. Those 29 sacks have come from 12 players, so opponents don’t know where to look for the next rush. Defensive tackle Justin Madubuike has led the parade with 5 1/2 sacks. The Ravens were thrilled to see outside linebacker Odafe Oweh return with a sack and a forced fumble after he missed the previous four games because of an ankle sprain. Safety Geno Stone, filling in for the injured Marcus Williams, leads the league with four interceptions. The secondary has exceeded expectations, with cornerbacks Brandon Stephens, Ronald Darby and Rock Ya-Sin covering well as Marlon Humphrey works back to peak form. After their dominant performance against the Lions, the Ravens rank first in pass defense DVOA.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens running game vs. Cardinals run defense

The Ravens also ran more efficiently against Detroit with 146 yards on 27 attempts and touchdowns from Jackson and Edwards. They rank third in the league in rushing and eighth in yards per attempt and hope those numbers will continue to point up with all five starting offensive linemen playing together. Jackson is running slightly more often than he did last season but averaging a career-low 5.3 yards per attempt. He’s as likely to use his legs to extend passing plays as he is to take off. Jackson slammed his helmet on the sideline after a botched exchange with running back Justice Hill, their third of the season, deprived the Ravens of another chance to score on the Lions.

The Cardinals don’t defend the run well either, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA. Linebacker Kyzir White is their top tackler, but defensive tackles Jonathan Ledbetter and Leki Fotu have played poorly. The Cardinals gave up 179 rushing yards to the Los Angeles Rams and 185 to the Dallas Cowboys.

EDGE: Ravens

Cardinals running game vs. Ravens run defense

This was the Cardinals’ strength until running back James Conner went on injured reserve. Their new No. 1, rookie Emari Demercado, rushed for 58 yards on 13 carries against Seattle. Dobbs has averaged 5.7 yards on six attempts per game. They also use wide receiver Rondale Moore as a change of pace, and he has averaged 9.1 yards on 15 carries. The Cardinals have rushed for at least 100 yards six games in a row, peaking at 222 in their upset win over Dallas.

The Ravens have been more vulnerable against the run than the pass, a surprise given the excellence of linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen and the interior power provided by Michael Pierce and Travis Jones. It’s not as if they’ve been bad, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Opponents have played from behind for most of the season, so the Ravens have not been tested by many committed ground attacks. That could change in Arizona. Smith missed practice Wednesday because of a shoulder injury.

EDGE: Even

Ravens special teams vs. Cardinals special teams

Aside from a short kickoff that did not work, the Ravens avoided special teams mishaps against the Lions. With their offense moving so efficiently, they did not have a lot of work to do on this front. Justin Tucker has made 12 of 14 field goal attempts, with his misses coming from 59 and 61 yards. They rank 18th in special teams DVOA, thanks mostly to their early-season struggles in punt coverage.

The Cardinals, also held down by inconsistent coverage, rank one spot below the Ravens. They gave up a 32-yard punt return in their loss to Seattle. Kicker Matt Prater has made 13 of 15 field goal attempts. Greg Dortch hasn’t made much impact as a returner, averaging 7.4 yards on punts and 17.6 on kickoffs.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens intangibles vs. Cardinals intangibles

As soon as the Ravens finished off the Lions, they started with their refrain of “on to Arizona.” They know this could be a classic letdown game after their dominant win over Detroit invited a deluge of praise. Jackson, who seemed less than blown away by their performance, has rarely lost to significant underdogs. The Ravens will have to deal with another long trip two weeks after they played in London, but coach John Harbaugh joked that travel fatigue is just a state of mind.

The Cardinals have lost four in a row, all by at least 10 points, for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon, who was the Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive coordinator last season. They’re waiting for Murray’s return as speculation builds that they might draft a quarterback with the high pick they’re certain to earn. They did upset the Cowboys at home, so there’s some life in them.

EDGE: Ravens

Prediction

Letdown or no letdown, the Ravens will go into Arizona with a significant talent advantage. Jackson will have plenty of time to find open targets against a defense that struggles to create pressure. The Cardinals, with just 55 points in their past four games, won’t have the firepower to keep up. Ravens 31, Cardinals 16

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The Ravens’ 38 points Sunday against the Lions was their highest output of the season. Lamar Jackson’s 357 passing yards were the second-most of his career, and he produced a near-perfect passer rating of 155.8. And Baltimore’s defense shut down a Detroit team that was averaging 28 points, 383.7 yards and had scored at least 20 points in 15 straight games.

Yet, quarterback Lamar Jackson, who on Wednesday was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week, didn’t so much as crack a smile afterward, a demeanor that, to a man, seems to have carried over this week as the Ravens (5-2) prepare to play the Cardinals (1-6) on Sunday in Arizona.

The Ravens, at least publicly, don’t appear to be bathing in their own press clippings, to borrow a phrase from basketball Hall of Famer Bill Walton. Of course, that’s what happens when you have a team that beat the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 2 only to lose at home the following week to the Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens also blew out the Browns in Cleveland in Week 4, only to surrender a double-digit lead against the Steelers in Pittsburgh the following week.

Even Sunday’s 38-6 dismantling of the Lions wasn’t without at least one mishap, notably a fumble by Jackson on an exchange with running back Justice Hill.

Now they’ll face a lowly Cardinals team that has lost four straight and is averaging just 18.1 points per game. Is it a trap?

“I believe you have a trap game or something like that when you get complacent or [are] thinking, ‘OK we just beat this team 30-something to 6, so we’re not worried about this team,’” Jackson said Wednesday. “I believe that’s when that stuff pops into your brain, but I don’t believe our guys are like that.”

Unsurprisingly, that includes the guy in charge.

“We talk to them along those lines,” said coach John Harbaugh, who added that unlike Alabama coach Nick Saban he didn’t have any “clever” rat poison comments for his players.

“We had a good game last week. We have to have the best game we can have this week against a completely different defense, completely different situation. We’re on the road. All those things change. That’ll be our goal. The mission is to keep trying to have a good game from week to week and overarchingly try to improve and get better at all the little things you do.”

His players seem to have gotten the message.

“Right now, we’re just chasing to be consistent,” Jackson said. “We had a couple games where we were good, then the next week it was like, what’s going on with the offense?”

Added wide receiver Rashod Bateman: “I gotta think we make this a bigger deal than it needs to be. We had a good game on Sunday and I think we just turn the page and focus on the Cardinals.”

Many of the usual cliches flowed throughout the locker room.

One game at a time. There’s a lot of football left. Any given Sunday anybody can win.

That’s especially true of Jackson, whose 16-1 mark against the NFC is the best record against an opposing conference since 1970. And he’s coming off a game in which he became just the fourth player in NFL history to record 350 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, one rushing score and finish with a passer rating of 150 or better.

Still, when Jackson was presented with the lion spike by Harbaugh following the win over Detroit, he simply took it and walked back to his locker with nothing in the way of celebration.

As for facing the Cardinals?

“You come out and treat them the way you treated all the other games,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey said. “The thing about a one-win team [is] they’re hungry for that second win or a winless team, so they’re going to come out [and] play hard, we just have to play a little bit harder.”

Added tight end Mark Andrews: “We know the type of team that they are. This is going to be a good game. For us, it’s about doing our job — doing everything that we can during this week. Every week’s a new challenge. Every week’s going to provide something different, so it’s just about handling that, being ourselves and continuing to grow to become the team that we want to be.”

Indeed, the Ravens have struggled to take that next step and string together consistent strong performances in games they’re expected to win, though Jackson did note their victory over the Tennessee Titans in London was followed by Sunday’s win against the Lions. Now comes the opportunity for a third straight.

“I believe we’re going in the right direction,” Jackson said. “We need to keep going.”

Week 8

Ravens at Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

TV: CBS

Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM

Line: Ravens by 8 1/2

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In 2021, three major league teams lost at least 102 games. Two years later, two of them — the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers — will meet in the World Series.

The Orioles complete that trio of past losers, and although an American League Division Series sweep at the hands of the Rangers prevented them from reaching that same stage, their regular season featured more accomplishments than either club. After going 52-110 in 2021, Baltimore won 101 games and the AL East in 2023, enjoying what was comfortably MLB’s largest two-year improvement over the past century.

If Texas claims its first championship, it will have only two more victories across the regular season and postseason than the Orioles managed, while it’s not possible for Arizona to catch Baltimore in that regard. Yet, the Rangers and Diamondbacks are in the World Series, and the Orioles are at home.

Both teams, though, offer templates for Baltimore heading into the offseason. At his end-of-the-season news conference about 36 hours after the Orioles were eliminated, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias had little to say when it came to how he’ll approach the winter, saying that it was too early and not necessarily beneficial to dive into details. But aspects of the last two clubs standing exemplify checklist items for Elias and Baltimore’s front office this offseason.

Add legitimate pitching

Before Wednesday’s waiver claim of left-hander Tucker Davidson from the Kansas City Royals, here were the pitchers the Orioles had acquired directly onto their 40-man roster over the past year: free-agent signees Kyle Gibson and Mychal Givens; trade acquisitions Darwinzon Hernández, Cole Irvin, Danny Coulombe, Shintaro Fujinami and Jack Flaherty; waiver claims Jacob Webb and Jorge López; and Rule 5 draft pick Andrew Politi. Collectively, the group cost the Orioles about $20 million and five prospects Baseball America ranked among their top 30 at the time of the trades, though all were outside the organization’s top 10.

None of those pitchers started a playoff game. Politi, Givens, Hernández and López didn’t make it to the end of the season in the organization. Irvin and Fujinami were left off the ALDS roster. The two highest-paid pitchers on it, Gibson and Flaherty, were used as long relievers when the Orioles were being blown out. Webb surrendered a game-deciding home run in Game 1 and a grand slam that broke open Game 2. Acquired for cash from the Minnesota Twins on the cusp of the season, Coulombe was the only member of this group to be worth at least one win above replacement in the regular season using the methodologies of both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Comparatively, among the pitchers the Rangers have added in that same span are multitime Cy Young Award winners Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer; veteran left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Andrew Heaney; and dominant postseason pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. All have made at least one start during the playoffs except deGrom, who in six starts before Tommy John elbow reconstruction produced as many wins above replacement, according to Baseball-Reference, or more than all of Baltimore’s additions other than Coulombe.

The Diamondbacks were relatively tame, though their trade to acquire closer Paul Sewald from Seattle has paid off handsomely in the postseason. Their top starter, Zac Gallen, was acquired in a 2019 trade and has since blossomed into a Cy Young Award candidate; the Orioles perhaps have their own version of that in Kyle Bradish, who leads their core of early-career starters.

But as the ALDS showed, greater fortification is needed. Baltimore has shown reluctance to make splashy moves, but one wouldn’t necessarily be required. Eovaldi, who pitched seven innings of one-run ball to knock out the Orioles, signed for a guaranteed two years and $34 million, a deal structure Elias said the Orioles have had on the table with players they were unable to acquire.

“Those pursuits will be on the menu again,” he said. “We’re trying to win.”

Extend a young star

The Diamondbacks aren’t going to the World Series because they signed rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll to an eight-year, $111 million extension before this season. But it could help the possibility of returning throughout the 2020s.

Including a club option for 2031, the agreement goes for three seasons beyond Carroll’s initial period of team control. As Arizona fans have watched him shine in the postseason — including three key hits against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series — they do so knowing their prized phenom will be a Diamondback for years to come.

Orioles fans do not have the same certainty. In nearly five years under Elias, the only guaranteed multiyear contracts Baltimore has given out have been two-year pacts with pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery. None of those agreements bought out any would-be free-agent seasons.

Infielder Gunnar Henderson, Carroll’s AL counterpart as the favorite for Rookie of the Year, has five more years of club control remaining, and catcher Adley Rutschman, the runner-up for that honor last year, has four left. In that sense, there’s not exactly a rush to ink the pair — Elias’ first two draft picks with Baltimore and the club’s top position players by wins above replacement in 2023 — to long-term contracts. But several other teams have reached extended agreements with their phenoms, and the continued absence of such a deal with Henderson or Rutschman adds to the looming possibility they spend much of their careers elsewhere.

Any such thoughts among the fan base have been induced by the organization itself, with not only its lack of action but also its words. In August, Orioles CEO and Chairman John Angelos told The New York Times the franchise would struggle financially to retain all of its young talent.

“When people talk about giving this player $200 million, that player $150 million, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively,” Angelos said.

Asked about the veracity of that comment after the season, Elias said, in his experience, “things don’t [always] come out exactly how you meant them” when speaking with media before saying the front office “quietly” examines extension possibilities.

“We are very focused on keeping this organization as successful and healthy as possible within the constraints of reality,” Elias said. “Obviously, we have players here that we love, and you look at it right now and you go, ‘Boy, I wish we had those guys under contract for longer than they currently are,’ and a big part of the calculus of keeping this franchise healthy, is pursuing or examining opportunities to possibly keep some of these guys longer. I’ve said it over and over. We quietly work on this in the background. I don’t want to be the one out talking about it, but obviously, that’s a part of our job as a front office to tackle that subject.”

Maximize playoff odds

Much was made of MLB’s playoff format when the four teams that won at least 99 regular-season games combined for one playoff win against 11 losses.

But the 90-win Rangers, the AL’s fifth seed, facing the 84-win Diamondbacks, the NL’s sixth seed, shows the importance of just getting into the field. Either team surely would have preferred a bye of the wild-card round and home-field advantage throughout the postseason en route to the Fall Classic, but they won enough in the regular season to get to the postseason, then won enough there to reach the World Series.

The Orioles’ approach to the 2022 trade deadline — when Elias focused more on future playoff pushes than the one in front of him — doesn’t need to be relitigated, especially given how well it has seemingly paid off for Baltimore’s long-term future. But it’s worth noting the 2023 Diamondbacks won one fewer game with a run differential one run worse than the 2022 Orioles. Cracking the field with a mid-80s win total gives a team as much of a shot of a World Series as triple-digit victories.

Perhaps that justifies Elias’ modest approach to both the offseason and trade deadline, acknowledging his intent was to put the Orioles in the postseason. They of course managed to exceed expectations, but they could have won 10 fewer games and made the playoffs regardless. Maybe the format devalues the regular season, but it also reinforces the importance of taking advantage of every opportunity to get beyond it.

Of course, teams such as Arizona are the exception, not the rule. According to FanGraphs, the Diamondbacks rank 20th in the majors in payroll, with a sizeable portion of theirs devoted to players no longer in the organization. Since 2008, the World Series winner has, on average, ranked in the top eight among the league’s 30 teams in payroll, with the average participant ranked in the top 12, according to data from Spotrac. Arizona is only the third team in that span ranked 20th or lower, with Tampa Bay’s pennant-winning clubs in 2008 and 2020 ranked 28th.

Each opponent the Diamondbacks beat to reach the World Series had a higher payroll, with Arizona going 9-3 as clubs with lower payrolls otherwise went 7-17 through the first three playoff rounds. That includes an 0-3 showing from the Orioles, who ended 2023 ranked 29th, against the eighth-ranked Rangers.

But the Orioles got in, and an offseason spent devoted to increasing the probability they do so again could be enough to find Baltimore playing at this time next year.

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