Against the tide: India bars protests that support the Palestinians

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SRINAGAR, India — From Western capitals to Muslim states, protest rallies over the Israel-Hamas war have made headlines. But one place known for its vocal pro-Palestinian stance has been conspicuously quiet: Indian-controlled Kashmir.

Indian authorities have barred any solidarity protest in Muslim-majority Kashmir and asked Muslim preachers not to mention the conflict in their sermons, residents and religious leaders told The Associated Press.

The restrictions are part of India’s efforts to curb any form of protest that could turn into demands for ending New Delhi’s rule in the disputed region. They also reflect a shift in India’s foreign policy under populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi away from its long-held support for the Palestinians, analysts say.

India has long walked a tightrope between the warring sides, with historically close ties to both. While India strongly condemned the Oct. 7 attack by the militant group Hamas and expressed solidarity with Israel, it urged that international humanitarian law be upheld in Gaza amid rising civilian deaths.

But in Kashmir, being quiet is painful for many.

“From the Muslim perspective, Palestine is very dear to us, and we essentially have to raise our voice against the oppression there. But we are forced to be silent,” said Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, a key resistance leader and a Muslim cleric. He said he has been put under house arrest each Friday since the start of the war and that Friday prayers have been disallowed at the region’s biggest mosque in Srinagar, the main city in Kashmir.

Anti-India sentiment runs deep in the Himalayan region which is divided between India and Pakistan and claimed by both in its entirety. In 2019, New Delhi removed the region’s semiautonomy, drastically curbing any form of dissent, civil liberties and media freedoms.

Kashmiris have long shown strong solidarity with the Palestinians and often staged large anti-Israel protests during previous fighting in Gaza. Those protests often turned into street clashes, with demands for an end of India’s rule and dozens of casualties.

Modi, a staunch Hindu nationalist, was one of the first global leaders to swiftly express solidarity with Israel and call the Hamas attack “terrorism.” However, on Oct. 12, India’s foreign ministry issued a statement reiterating New Delhi’s position in support of establishing a “sovereign, independent and viable state of Palestine, living within secure and recognized borders, side by side at peace with Israel.”

Two weeks later, India abstained during the United Nations General Assembly vote that called for a humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza, a departure from its usual voting record. New Delhi said the vote did not condemn the Oct. 7 assault by Hamas.

“This is unusual,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute.

India “views Israel’s assault on Gaza as a counterterrorism operation meant to eliminate Hamas and not directly target Palestinian civilians, exactly the way Israel views the conflict,” Kugelman said. He added that from New Delhi’s perspective, “such operations don’t pause for humanitarian truces.”

India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, sought to justify India’s abstention.

“It is not just a government view. If you ask any average Indian, terrorism is an issue which is very close to people’s heart, because very few countries and societies have suffered terrorism as much as we have,” he told a media event in New Delhi on Saturday.

Even though Modi’s government has sent humanitarian assistance for Gaza’s besieged residents, many observers viewed its ideological alignment with Israel as potentially rewarding at a time when the ruling party in New Delhi is preparing for multiple state elections this month and crucial national polls next year.

The government’s shift aligns with widespread support for Israel among India’s Hindu nationalists who form a core vote bank for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party. It also resonates with the coverage by Indian TV channels of the war from Israel. The reportage has been seen as largely in line with commentary used by Hindu nationalists on social media to stoke anti-Muslim sentiment that in the past helped the ascendance of Modi’s party.

Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said the war could have a domestic impact in India, unlike other global conflicts, due to its large Muslim population. India is home to some 200 million Muslims who make up the predominantly Hindu country’s largest minority group.

“India’s foreign policy and domestic politics come together in this issue,” Donthi said. “New Delhi’s pro-Israel shift gives a new reason to the country’s right-wing ecosystem that routinely targets Muslims.”

India’s foreign policy has historically supported the Palestinian cause.

In 1947, India voted against the United Nations resolution to create the state of Israel. It was the first non-Arab country to recognize the Palestinian Liberation Organization as the representative of the Palestinians in the 1970s, and it gave the group full diplomatic status in the 1980s.

After the PLO began a dialogue with Israel, India finally established full diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992.

Those ties widened into a security relationship after 1999, when India fought a limited war with Pakistan over Kashmir and Israel helped New Delhi with arms and ammunition. The relationship has grown steadily over the years, with Israel becoming India’s second largest arms supplier after Russia.

After Modi won his first term in 2014, he became the first Indian prime minister to visit Israel in 2017. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, travelled to New Delhi the following year and called the relationship between New Delhi and Tel Aviv a “marriage made in heaven.”

Weeks after Netanyahu’s visit, Modi visited the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah, a first by an Indian prime minister, and held talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. “India hopes that Palestine soon becomes a sovereign and independent country in a peaceful atmosphere,” Modi said.

Modi’s critics, however, now draw comparisons between his government and Israel’s, saying it has adopted certain measures, like demolishing homes and properties, as a form of “collective punishment” against minority Muslims.

Even beyond Kashmir, Indian authorities have largely stopped protests expressing solidarity with Palestinians since the war began, claiming the need to maintain communal harmony and law and order.

Some people have been briefly detained by police for taking part in pro-Palestinian protests even in states ruled by opposition parties. The only state where massive pro-Palestinian protests have taken place is southern Kerala, which is ruled by a leftist government.

But in Kashmir, enforced silence is seen not only as violating freedom of expression but also as impinging on religious duty.

Aga Syed Mohammad Hadi, a Kashmiri religious leader, was not able to lead the past three Friday prayers because he was under house arrest on those days. He said he had wanted to stage a protest rally against “the naked aggression of Israel.” Authorities did not comment on such house arrests.

“Police initially allowed us to condemn Israel’s atrocities inside the mosques. But last Friday they said even speaking (about Palestinians) inside the mosques is not allowed,” Hadi said. “They said we can only pray for Palestine — that too in Arabic, not in local Kashmiri language.”

Democrats romp, Youngkin flops: 4 takeaways from Tuesday’s election

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Joe Biden has had a very bad few days. His party just had a banner year.

In Tuesday night’s off-year elections, the incumbent Democratic governor in Kentucky — a state President Joe Biden lost by 26 points — handily won reelection. Democrats not only rebuffed Virginia Glenn Youngkin’s bid for total control of the state legislature by keeping the state Senate — and flipped the state House, too. And the party held a state Supreme Court seat in the nation’s largest Electoral College battleground of Pennsylvania.

None of these wins guarantees success for the party in 2024. Biden is losing to former President Donald Trump in a host of recent polls, and Democrats are underdogs to hold their Senate majority.

But for now, the results on Tuesday — taken together with a string of special elections throughout the year that showed Democratic candidates outperforming Biden’s vote shares in districts across the country — serve as a powerful counterpoint to the party’s doom-and-gloom over the president’s poll numbers.

Democrats’ victories won’t make those polls go away, but they should prompt a rethinking of the current political moment, with a year to go until the next general election.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday night:

Democrats’ 2023 successes, defined

Going into Tuesday night, Democrats were already having a strong 2023. Compared to Biden’s 2020 victory, Democratic candidates in special elections this year had been running about 8 percentage points better, on average.

There were a couple marquee victories, too, like flipping control of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court and stopping conservatives from trying to make it more difficult to pass the abortion-rights amendment in Ohio.

Tuesday added to the winning streak: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection. Democrats held the Virginia state Senate and flipped the state House. The party was the driving force behind a ballot measure to enshrine the right to an abortion in the Ohio state constitution. And Democrats added to their Wisconsin victory by winning a similar race in Pennsylvania.

They also won by muscle-flexing margins. Beshear beat state Attorney General Daniel Cameron by 5 percentage points; his first victory four years ago was by less than half a point. The Ohio abortion amendment passed by 12 points. Daniel McCaffery, the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania, won by 8.

Republicans can point to a few victories this year. They easily flipped the open governorship in Louisiana last month, and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves won reelection on Tuesday. But their successes were few and far between a year after also underachieving in the 2022 midterms.

Democrats might want to pump the brakes before assuming their 2023 successes will continue into 2024, though. With Trump his party’s likely nominee again, the GOP will be counting on the former president’s coalition to show up like it did in 2020.

Voters with lower incomes and lower levels of educational attainment tend not to vote in elections like the special and off-year races in which Democrats have been so successful this year. And these voters have been shifting toward Trump and the GOP in recent years.

The potency of abortion

The Ohio result marked the latest in a series of major victories at the ballot box for reproductive rights advocates in the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

The victory for the “Yes on 1” side in Ohio was largely expected after an August referendum where the state’s voters rejected a measure that would have made the abortion amendment more difficult to pass.

But how the victory transpired was notable.

A POLITICO analysis of 80 counties that reported complete results shortly before midnight found that the Yes side exceeded Biden’s 2020 margins by an average of more than 10 percentage points in counties the Democratic president lost. The Yes side overperformed Biden’s 2020 results in blue counties too, but the margin of improvement was actually smaller.

The unofficial results also suggest that the counties with the highest turnout in Tuesday’s election were actually jurisdictions that had favored Trump in 2020. The victory for Yes on Issue 1 was not driven by remarkable Democratic turnout — but by a significant share of voters in Republican-leaning counties casting their ballots for abortion rights.

That may not translate perfectly to electoral success for Democratic candidates for office. But it does provide a blueprint for abortion-rights supporters to circumvent Republican legislatures in red and purple states through referenda. The lesson: rely on the slice of voters who won’t vote for a Democrat for office — but who would vote for a ballot measure on abortion.

Democrats also campaigned heavily on abortion in Virginia — and even in Kentucky, where Beshear portrayed the lack of exceptions in the state’s abortion ban as too extreme.

Youngkin falls flat as the GOP’s white knight

Youngkin bet it all on the Virginia legislative races. And it looks like he is coming home empty-handed.

The wins are a rebuke to Youngkin’s efforts to consolidate power in the state by removing a Democratic roadblock to his agenda, on everything from taxes to abortion. Youngkin, unusually, launched a strategy to have Republicans run on abortion in these elections. Youngkin pushed candidates to coalesce around a 15 week ban in the state, trying to cast Democrats as extremists on the issue and Republicans as the party with the reasonable position.

Voters rejected that.

Youngkin’s loss will likely stretch beyond the commonwealth. Some Republican donors have been publicly pining for the Virginia governor to jump into the presidential race as a last-minute challenger to Trump.

That was always logistically infeasible. But, the argument went, Youngkin could build up political momentum — and the support of key donors — with a show of strength in Virginia that would catapult him to the top of the primary field.

Youngkin pointedly never ruled out a presidential run, only saying he was focused on these legislative races when asked. But Tuesday’s results will likely put an end to that talk.

How it plays out for 2024

Biden’s defenders were jubilant over Tuesday’s results, claiming they were a more accurate reflection of the president’s political standing than a battery of polls showing him losing to Trump — including one that CNN released during its election-results show on Tuesday night.

“Voters vote, polls don’t,” read a Biden-Harris fundraising email issued after a good chunk of the results were in.

Those pleas are probably downplaying the political trouble Biden faces at this point. But the president undeniably got a nice boost from the night.

The president and his aides were quick to point to Kentucky, Ohio and Virginia as evidence that there is enthusiasm for Democratic causes and candidates. They left the night even more confident abortion is a winning campaign issue. Perhaps more important, they believe they bought themselves a reprieve from naysayers who fear that they’re facing doom when Biden squares off against Trump.

As for Trump, the former president was notably quiet during the evening. He had expended little of his political capital in the lead up to the vote. But his support for state Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s governor bid in Kentucky did leave him open to attacks from his primary opponents. Chris Christie and aides to the Ron DeSantis allied super PAC Never Back Down took turns arguing that the results once more showed that Trump is a drag on the candidates he backs, not a boost for them.

But it was New York City, not Kentucky, that may have delivered the most symbolic rebuke of Trump Tuesday. Yusef Salaam, a member of the exonerated Central Park Five, won a city council seat. Trump had called for the death penalty for those five, who were wrongly accused of raping a jogger. He has refused to apologize for it.

“Karma is real,” Salaam said of his win.

Sam Stein contributed to this report.

Trucker who stunned New Jersey ousted after 1 term

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Former Assemblymember John Burzichelli won a key victory for Democrats Tuesday night, defeating Ed Durr, who became a star on the right after his shocking defeat of Democratic Senate President Steve Sweeney in 2021, the Associated Press projects.

Burzichelli’s Democratic Assembly running mates, Heather Simmons and Dave Bailey Jr., also lead Republican Assemblymember Bethanne McCarthy Patrick and Hopewell Township Committee member Tom Tedesco. The Associated Press has not yet called the Assembly election.

Background: Durr, a truck driver, slipped under the political radar in 2021, surprising even himself when he ousted Sweeney, who had invested little in his reelection campaign and focused more on running for governor in 2025. Democrats back then did not use opposition research against Durr, like when he wrote on Facebook in 2020 about abortion that “Women do have a choice! Keep their legs closed.”

Democrats did not miss that opportunity in this election, seizing on the comments and spending heavily on TV advertisements and mailers attempting to tar other Republicans with them as well.

Burzichelli, who chaired the powerful Assembly Appropriations Committee for 10 years, also criticized Durr for focusing on pro-gun and anti-abortion legislation at the expense of resources for the district, which benefited from the leadership positions of Sweeney and Burzichelli.

At Burzichelli’s campaign headquarters Tuesday night, Sweeney sounded a note of vindication.

“It feels like a wrong has now been righted,” he told NJ Spotlight News.

Key context: Burzichelli’s victory returns some power to the once dominant but recently ailing South Jersey Democratic machine.

Duluth refuses to give incumbent mayor a third term

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DULUTH, Minn. — Roger Reinert will be the city’s next mayor after defeating the incumbent officeholder, Emily Larson, on Tuesday night.

The two longtime DFLers squared off against each other in the tightest mayoral race since Don Ness faced Charlie Bell in 2007.

Despite running against an incumbent, Reinert emerged as the political favorite in the race, after a strong primary performance, garnering 60% of the vote to Larson’s 40% in final but unofficial returns.

Larson managed to narrow that gap slightly in the general election, shrinking the margin as Reinert received just 60% of the vote to her 40%, according to unofficial results released Tuesday.

As far as the keys to the race, Reinert said: “I think it really was a couple things. It was how we approached it and being really thoughtful about getting out on the front end and meeting with people to have those conversations that really informed the five big issues that we just kept talking about.

“And I think it was about staying the course of being positive, forward-looking and focused on the issues,” he said.

Larson did not return calls from the Duluth News Tribune on Tuesday night.

She did issue a statement: “Duluth is better today because of the work we’ve done together these past eight years. Thank you to everyone who joined me in this work and to everyone who worked on my campaign to continue this progress. Together, 265 campaign volunteers door-knocked 18,000 homes and called more than 8,000 more.

“Most importantly, thank you to residents across the community for engaging in and with local government. Regardless of outcome and election result, we live in a community where people spent time to listen, learn, share, volunteer and vote,” Larson said.

The incumbent mayor received her party’s endorsement, while Reinert decided not to seek it, noting that local races need not be partisan contests.

This mayoral race will go down as Duluth’s most expensive campaign to date, with spending through late October topping $466,000, and political action committees in support of both candidates contributing significant sums of money in support of each camp.

Some of those advertisements took a negative turn, criticizing Reinert for his record and referring to him as “Risky Reinert.”

Reinert predicted the attack ads would backfire.

“What I think is we’re a big small town,” he said. “I’m fortunate to have had the opportunity to serve previously, and people have seen my service over time. If they don’t know me, they know someone who does. As that negative campaigning kept coming, it just turned a lot of people off. And I think we continued to signal that we don’t need to do this. We all say we want better, and we can actually do that.

“We affirmed that you can win without going negative, and I know Minnesota was watching,” Reinert said.

Reinert, 53, has a political career that dates back to 2004, when he was appointed to the Duluth City Council to fill a vacancy left by newly elected Mayor Herb Bergson. His colleagues elected him to serve as council president in 2006 and 2008.

In 2008, he successfully ran for the Minnesota House of Representatives. In 2010, Reinert was elected to the Minnesota Senate, where he served two terms. Reinert is an attorney and commander in the U.S. Navy Reserve.

Larson, 50, was seeking her third term as mayor of Duluth. Her political career started in 2011, when she emerged as the top vote-getter in a Duluth City Council at large race. In 2015, she was elected mayor, succeeding Don Ness in the role.

Larson handily won two previous mayoral races, receiving 72% of the vote against opponent Chuck Horton in 2015 and receiving nearly 64% of the vote against David Nolle in 2019.

But a third term as mayor will elude Larson. She delivered a concession speech to her opponent at Bent Paddle Brewing Co. shortly after 9:30 p.m. Tuesday.

“This is a very difficult job and although we ran against one another and competed fiercely about our ideas, I truly wish him well,” Larson said.

Reinert has pledged to bring a new leadership team to City Hall, and said the people have spoken.

“The closing argument was very simple. If people thought we were moving in the right direction, they were going to vote for a third term. But if they had concerns and they wanted to see something different, this was the first meaningful race for mayor they had in 20 years,” he said.

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