The first big decisions of the Orioles’ offseason are approaching.

Baltimore had no contract options to sort out. None of its five free agents were going to receive the $20.325 million qualifying offer. The club has hardly any top prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. So, the arbitration tender deadline Friday marks the first significant offseason benchmark for the Orioles’ roster.

Here’s what you need to know.

What is arbitration?

Arbitration is a system that provides pay raises to players who have established themselves as big leaguers but haven’t yet spent enough time in the majors to become free agents.

Players who have at least three years of MLB service time but fewer than the six necessary to become a free agent are eligible, as long as they don’t already have a set salary through a guaranteed contract. A year of service time is equivalent to 172 regular-season days spent on the major league roster or injured list. A player can earn no more than one year of service time in a given season, even if they are active for more than 172 days.

A portion of players with between two and three years are also eligible, with the top 22% of that group by service time receiving “Super Two” status. These players don’t become free agents any sooner, but they receive four years of arbitration eligibility instead of the typical three, which results in higher career earnings before they reach free agency. This year’s Super Two cutoff is two years and 118 days of service time, according to the Associated Press.

How does the process work?

Before Friday’s deadline, teams will decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Any players who are non-tendered become free agents. Players are typically non-tendered because the salary they would likely receive through arbitration exceeds the salary the club is willing to pay them, and the sides weren’t able to agree on a lower figure ahead of the deadline.

Teams and tendered players can continue negotiating contract terms after the initial deadline. If they haven’t come to an agreement by Jan. 12, the sides will then each suggest a potential 2024 salary for that player.

If the team and the player remain unable to agree to terms, a panel of arbitrators will pick either the team’s or the player’s suggested salary — and no other possible value — after a hearing, which will take place in late January or early February.

Which Orioles are arbitration-eligible?

The Orioles will have 16 players who are eligible for arbitration, which MLB Trade Rumors estimates as tied for the second-largest group of any team. It’s a tally executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias called “an earmark of having a good roster these days” at the end of the season.

Outfielder Anthony Santander and left-handers John Means and Danny Coulombe are in their final year of eligibility before becoming free agents; Santander is 10 days shy of already having six years of service time. Outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, shortstop Jorge Mateo and reliever Dillon Tate have between four and five years of service time.

First baseman Ryan Mountcastle, infielder Ramón Urías, right-hander Jacob Webb, and left-handers Cionel Pérez, Cole Irvin and Keegan Akin all reached three years of service time in 2023 and are arbitration-eligible for the first time. Joining them are outfielder Ryan McKenna and right-handers Tyler Wells, who are eligible as Super Twos. Right-hander Dean Kremer came six days of service short of Super Two eligibility.

How much will they earn?

If the 16 eligible Orioles are all tendered contracts, they would receive more than $50 million collectively, based on projections from MLB Trade Rumors, Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Spotrac. That total represents almost double what that group earned in 2023.

About a quarter of that $50 million is expected to go to Santander, a switch-hitter who led Baltimore in home runs each of the past two seasons. The three forecasts’ average projection for Santander’s 2024 salary is $12.8 million; he earned $7.4 million in 2023.

Mullins ($6.2 million), Hays ($5.8 million) and Means ($5.6 million) have the next highest average projections. Mountcastle is projected for the largest salary of Baltimore’s first-time recipients at $3.9 million, a significant raise after he made about $740,000 in 2023.

The remaining members of what would currently be the Orioles’ season-opening roster are projected to make about $10 million combined in 2024, according to Spotrac. That total will likely increase should Baltimore make trades and free-agent signings.

Who could get non-tendered?

Some of these decisions could come down to next week’s deadline, with the possibility some players agree to lesser deals beforehand to avoid being non-tendered. The majority of the Orioles’ eligible players will be tendered contracts, though there are a handful of decisions to be made.

It’s difficult to imagine Baltimore parting with Santander in this fashion, though it’s worth noting his projected salary would be the largest Elias has given out in his five years running the club.

Mateo and Urías are both projected to make between $2 million and $3 million in 2024. Both are right-handed-hitting infielders who ended this season in part-time roles, with the pair effectively splitting a platoon. Each excelled defensively in 2022 but took a step back in 2023, while their offensive contributions were below average. With top overall prospect Jackson Holliday set to join Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg in the majors — and prospects Joey Ortiz, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby also in the mix for big league time at some point next season — it’s possible there isn’t room for Mateo, Urías or both.

Tate and Akin each ended the season on the 60-day injured list but have played key roles in Baltimore’s bullpen in recent years. Tate, who missed all of 2023 with an elbow injury, led the Orioles in games pitched in both 2021 and 2022. He made $1.5 million in 2023 and likely would receive a similar figure for next season. Akin had a 3.20 ERA in 2022 and a 3.66 mark through his first 20 appearances of 2023, then gave up 13 runs while recording 12 outs in his final four outings before going on the IL with a lower back injury. At $850,000, Akin has the lowest average projected salary of Baltimore’s arbitration-eligible players.

McKenna’s eligibility could put him at risk, though he’s not projected to make much above the league minimum. With Aaron Hicks entering free agency, the Orioles have a need for a right-handed hitter who can play all three outfield spots, a mold McKenna fits. But he’s mainly been an up-and-down defensive replacement in his career, and he’s out of minor league options, meaning the team would have to expose him to waivers to send him to Triple-A. If the Orioles don’t think they’ll have space for him come opening day, this would be a prudent move to make now.

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The annual MLB general managers meetings lay the groundwork for the rest of the offseason.

The Chicago Cubs’ unexpected hiring of manager Craig Counsell added a wrinkle to what should have been an otherwise normal beginning to free agency. But it didn’t change the mission this week for President Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office: getting an early feel for the free-agent market and the trade landscape and meeting with agents, including Scott Boras.

As the Cubs prepare to formally introduce Counsell next week, here are three takeaways from the GM meetings.

1. Craig Counsell’s departure to a rival a surprise for Brewers GM.

Thirty-six hours after the Cubs named Counsell their manager, Brewers general manager Matt Arnold stated he was surprised by Counsell leaving for a division rival but still spoke highly of his friend.

“From our perspective, it’s always been about people, that’s something Craig and I talked about a lot after working together for eight years, and I think that’s really important for us to put people first,” Arnold said Wednesday. “In this situation, we put Craig first throughout the process, and I’m thrilled for him and his outcome. At the same time, we’re in a position where we have to put our best foot forward and we’re going to do exactly that.

“Everything that Craig has done, all the accolades he deserves. I certainly enjoyed our time together and I’ll always have good memories of working with Craig Counsell. But at the same time we’re going to be competing against each other, and it should be a lot of fun.”

Pat Murphy, Counsell’s bench coach in Milwaukee, is in a “very real” discussion for the Brewers manager opening, Arnold said. If he is not hired, Arnold wants to make sure the incoming manager brings on his own bench coach. That could create a path to Murphy joining Counsell as the Cubs work through who will be retained from David Ross’ staff.

Arnold would not discuss other names the Brewers are considering for the job, including whether their list includes Ross.

“If it ends up with Pat Murphy not being our manager, he will absolutely have a home here with the Brewers,” Arnold said.

Arnold did not close the door on letting members of the Brewers coaching staff follow Counsell to the Cubs, stating if it’s a good opportunity for someone, he would be open to having that discussion.

“Having come from the Tampa Bay Rays, there are a lot of places where you get raided when you have good people, and we’ve had that happen here in Milwaukee and that’s something we should be proud of,” Arnold said. “That speaks to our culture and the good people that we’ve produced here.”

2. Christopher Morel will get offseason work at first base.

One of the Cubs’ biggest internal roster questions centers on Morel’s positional future with the team.

The Cubs have had ongoing conversations about his best fit and believe Morel, 24, would benefit from sticking at one position defensively rather than being used in a utility role. Ideally the right-handed Morel would play second base, where his athleticism and arm strength could shine, but that spot is locked down by Gold Glove award winner Nico Hoerner for at least the next three years. They have tried Morel at third base, where he logged a majority of his starts in the minors. He put in work pregame there, too, in his last two big-league seasons to complement his 17 starts at the hot corner for the Cubs, but inaccuracy with his throws has been a continuing issue.

It’s a balance between blending Morel’s strengths and skill set with the team’s personnel.

“He’s a very capable second baseman, (but) we have (Hoerner), so that’s not the spot we’re going to put him,” Hoyer said Wednesday. “Another team might be able to put him there and have him do that.”

With limited everyday options for a non-designated hitter role, the Cubs want Morel to get offseason work at first base in winter ball and see how he handles the position.

“Finding a home for him is something that would be really valuable,” Hoyer said. “(First base) fits our needs and potentially his needs. … With that position, too, you’ve got to put a lot of work in.

“The hard part about first base is that certainly it doesn’t require a lot of things that third base or second base do, but the footwork around the bag, understanding positioning can be really challenging, so that’s a big part of it.”

The Cubs do not have an obvious option within the organization at first base and used Cody Bellinger — now a free agent — more in the second half of the season. Lefty slugger Matt Mervis could get another look in spring training and show he learned from his first taste of the majors. Otherwise, their first baseman would need to come through a trade or free agency if they want a non-platoon setup — perhaps re-signing Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario or signing Rhys Hoskins. Candelario, though, preferred playing third base, which prompted former manager David Ross to instead use Patrick Wisdom at first when both were in the lineup.

There is no harm in seeing if Morel can handle first base in the offseason. He also represents a trade asset the Cubs can use to help acquire a better roster fit, namely a star player. Morel is not arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season and boasts easy power, both attractive qualities to organizations.

3. After Marcus Stroman’s opt-out, Cubs will explore internal and external options for rotation opening.

Hoyer didn’t know which way right-hander Marcus Stroman was leaning in the lead–up to his opt-out decision.

Hoyer had multiple lengthy conversations with Stroman’s agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, on Friday and Saturday about what the pitcher wanted to do by Monday’s deadline. Even at the moment Van Wagenen called to inform Hoyer of the decision, he was unsure whether Stroman would return for the remaining one-year and $21 million on his contract.

“I think he felt like in this market he’d secure a multiyear deal and I think that was a priority,” Hoyer said. “It’s not often when I truly didn’t know what direction that was going to go. That’s why we had a bunch of conversations because I think they were kind of feeling it out and thinking about it too.

“He was a very hard worker, really diligent with his preparation, really cares about winning. He wants to sort of do his own thing in terms of how he does his preparation and that’s great. We gave him that freedom because he deserves that and he always gets his work done. He’s always prepared. I thought it was a good match for us.”

Stroman’s departure opens a spot in the rotation, and Hoyer wants to give opportunities to pitchers within the organization, pointing to the depth they had this year. It’s a big-league group that featured right-handers Javier Assad and Hayden Wesneski and left-handers Jordan Wicks and Drew Smyly, plus arms at the upper levels in the minors that most notably include right-handers Ben Brown and Cade Horton.

“I do like the fact that we can give some young guys some opportunities,” Hoyer said.

But as Hoyer likes to preach: Teams never can have enough pitching. So expect the Cubs to explore the starting pitching market. The Cubs pitching staff needs more swing-and-miss stuff, which Hoyer said he would look to add.

“I still don’t feel like the stuff of our staff can still continue to ramp up,” Hoyer said. “It’s gotten better, but the stuff in the big leagues isn’t where our minor-league system is. We’ve got to continue to migrate that up and have more swing-and-miss.”

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Here’s what The Baltimore Sun sports staff had to say immediately after the Ravens’ 33-31 loss to the visiting Cleveland Browns in Sunday’s Week 10 game at M&T Bank Stadium.

Brian Wacker: The Ravens were on the verge of another blowout. Then their self-inflicted wounds set in, much the way they did against the Colts and Steelers earlier this season.

First there was Lamar Jackson’s interception at the Browns’ 37-yard line with under a minute to play in the first half. Jackson didn’t put enough on the throw, he said, and that halted any chance of the Ravens adding to their 17-3 lead. But the real dagger was his tipped pass to fullback Patrick Ricard in the fourth quarter that was returned for a touchdown by cornerback Greg Newsome II. Despite trailing by one, 31-30, after the missed extra point attempt, the Browns looked poised to climb all the way back.

Another special teams snafu also proved costly, with Justin Tucker’s 55-yard field goal try with 2:27 left in the second quarter blocked. That gave the ball back to the Browns, who turned it into what turned out to be a critical three points.

There were other curious decisions, notably running back Keaton Mitchell getting just one touch in the second half after a 39-yard touchdown run and a 32-yard catch-and-run in the first half. Coach John Harbaugh said that’s just the way the game went and Mitchell said he’s not complaining about the lack of touches, but it was odd to go away from a player who has emerged as a significant weapon over the past two weeks.

Lastly, the Ravens have to find a way to close out games. Blowing leads of 24-9 and 31-17 in the second half is unacceptable, no matter what.

Mike Preston: This loss proved the Ravens can’t be trusted, not yet anyway. It’s way too early to conclude this team has reached its peak and it showed Sunday. The offense couldn’t find its rhythm and the defense couldn’t get off the field in the fourth quarter when the outcome was still in doubt. There is a lot of room for improvement and two months for this team to get better before the postseason.

Jacob Calvin Meyer: Nothing like a fourth-quarter collapse to really ruin a Sunday afternoon, eh? It appeared as if the Ravens were going to win their fifth straight game and improve to 8-2. Instead, it was another late collapse. For the third time this season, the Ravens have let what seemed like a sure win slip through their fingers. However, the last time Baltimore had a loss like this, it ripped off four straight wins. The Ravens have the opportunity to start another streak Thursday night against the Bengals.

C.J. Doon: A game that started out with so much promise thanks to Kyle Hamilton’s stunning pick-six ended with so much frustration. The injuries to cornerback Marlon Humphrey and left tackle Ronnie Stanley loom large, not just for a short week of preparation for the AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals on “Thursday Night Football,” but the rest of the season. This Ravens team is aiming for the top seed in the conference and a trip to the Super Bowl, after all.

But Baltimore sure didn’t look like a title contender Sunday. How does this Ravens defense allow this Browns offense to score 24 of the game’s final 31 points? Deshaun Watson looked hobbled all game after suffering what appeared to be an ankle injury in the first quarter, and yet he might have outplayed Lamar Jackson. Watson even broke away from what looked like a sure tackle to help move the chains on the Browns’ final drive.

The Ravens have been so successful grinding down opponents with their running game to seal wins this season, which makes that pick-six on a batted ball with 8:16 to go so frustrating. Rookie sensation Keaton Mitchell also got just three carries — and just one touch in the second half — despite averaging 11.3 yards per attempt.

But what’s really shocking is the performance of a Ravens defense that couldn’t get off the field in the second half, allowing back-to-back 75-yard touchdown drives and a methodical 12-play, 58-yard march that set up Dustin Hopkins’ game-winning 40-yard field goal as time expired. If not for a muffed punt by former Ravens wideout James Proche early in the fourth quarter, it could have been even worse.

Tim Schwartz: Ah, the AFC North. It doesn’t seem to matter what the records are, these games are always a dogfight. A pick-six for each of the NFL’s best defenses? Check. Fumbles caused by massive defenders clamping down on quarterbacks? Check. Wild swings that nobody expected? Check. The Ravens letting another opponent back in the game in the second half? Check.

This was the Ravens of old (at least earlier this season, before they seemingly turned a corner and stopped playing down to opponents), and they will lament giving away a home game they seemed to have won in the first quarter. All they can do is move on quickly to prepare for Thursday night’s prime-time battle against a Bengals team that was stunned by the Texans on Sunday.

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Kyle Bradish opened the 2023 season as the No. 4 starter in the Orioles’ five-man rotation. He ended it viewed as the No. 4 starter in the entire American League.

In his second major league season, Bradish placed fourth in voting for the AL Cy Young Award, which annually recognizes the circuit’s top pitcher. New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, the AL’s only qualified starter who allowed a lower batting average than Bradish, received all 30 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America to win his first career Cy Young Award, the BBWAA announced Wednesday, with San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell winning in the National League.

Bradish, a 27-year-old right-hander, is the first Orioles starter to appear on multiple BBWAA ballots since Hall of Famer Mike Mussina finished second in 1999. With a single third-place vote in 2007, Erik Bedard tied for fifth, while closer Zack Britton also came in fourth in 2016. An Oriole hasn’t won the award since Steve Stone in 1980.

The voting results validated Bradish’s status as not only the Orioles’ top starter, but also one of the best in the AL. With a 2.83 ERA, Bradish became Baltimore’s first qualified starter to post a mark under 3.00 since Mussina in 1992. That figure also ranked third in the AL behind Cole and Minnesota Twins right-hander Sonny Gray, who finished second in voting as former Orioles starter Kevin Gausman, now with the Toronto Blue Jays, placed third. Bradish’s 17 outings of at least six innings with fewer than three runs allowed trailed only Cole.

Bradish appeared on 19 ballots with six third-place votes, eight for fourth place and five for fifth. He finished well behind Gausman for third place in voting, preventing the Orioles from having three finalists for BBWAA awards; Baltimore infielder Gunnar Henderson was named the AL Rookie of the Year on Monday, with Brandon Hyde winning AL Manager of the Year a day later. The final BBWAA honor, the Most Valuable Player in each league, will be announced Thursday.

One of four minor league right-handers the Orioles acquired from the Los Angeles Angels for starter Dylan Bundy in December 2019, Bradish made his major league debut for Baltimore in May 2022. In 10 starts before going on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, Bradish had a 7.38 ERA. But the recovery period allowed him to mentally and physically reset. After his return, he posted a 3.28 ERA over 13 starts, a stretch during which he also began pitching from the other side of the rubber and added a sinker to his repertoire.

The success of those changes, as well as the improved command he showcased, carried into 2023. Starting Baltimore’s fourth game of the season, he exited seven batters in when a comebacker struck his right foot, prompting a brief stint on the injured list. He returned with six scoreless innings, but his next nine outings were mixed, leaving him with a 4.25 ERA entering mid-June. From then on, he had a 2.18 ERA in 19 starts; his 2.34 mark after the All-Star break narrowly topped Cole for the best second-half ERA of any major league starter.

The performance made Bradish the obvious choice to be the Orioles’ Game 1 starter in their AL Division Series matchup with the Texas Rangers. Although the Rangers won the game, 3-2, en route to sweeping Baltimore and eventually winning the World Series, Bradish impressed in his 4 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts, the first Orioles pitcher to reach that tally in a postseason game since Mussina in 1997.

Orioles closer Félix Bautista, who at points in the season was viewed as a dark-horse Cy Young candidate, received three fifth-place votes as the only reliever to land on multiple ballots. Before undergoing season-ending Tommy John elbow reconstruction that will also force him to miss 2024, Bautista had a 1.48 ERA and 33 saves with a 46.4% strikeout rate that was the sixth highest for any qualified reliever in major league history.

Replacing Bautista at the back of the bullpen and fortifying the rotation are among the Orioles’ offseason priorities with Gray and Snell, now free agents, among the starting upgrades available. But for now, Bradish is positioned to become Baltimore’s youngest opening day starter since Bundy in 2018, which would be a worthy honor for a pitcher who established himself among the AL’s best.

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