6 warning signs for Biden in new battleground state poll

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When a pollster releases new data in six key battleground states, and the incumbent is losing in four of them, it’s hard to narrow down the list of warning signs to just a handful.

But the latest results from The New York Times and Siena College, released Sunday to coincide with the one-year-out mark from the 2024 election, paint a dismal picture for President Joe Biden — and a well-defined path back to the White House for the man he defeated three years ago, former President Donald Trump.

Among likely voters, Trump led Biden in four of the six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania), tied in another (Michigan) and trailed Biden in just one (Wisconsin). Trump lost all six states in 2020. But his leads over Biden in the polls were all by at least 5 percentage points, while Biden’s advantage in Wisconsin (2 points) was well within the poll’s margin of error.

They’re not outliers in showing Biden in peril: A CBS News/YouGov national poll also released on Sunday showed Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 48 percent — a reversal of Biden’s 51 percent to 47 percent victory in the 2020 election.

The poll results have already prompted tons of handwringing among prominent Democrats within half a day of their release. But it’s not just the topline numbers that should make the party wary of next year — and potentially uneasy about the off-year elections this week.

It’s also what’s buried in the crosstabs and the other questions — specific areas of weakness for Biden on policy, personal attributes and among key segments of the electorate central to his bid for a second term.

In the spirit of the six-state survey, here are the six biggest warning signs for Biden in the numbers:

Is Biden too old?

Yes +42

It’s perhaps the central question of the 2024 election: Are voters prepared to elect a man who will be 86 years old when his term would end in January 2029?

A year before the voting ends, the answer is no. Seven in 10 likely voters in the battleground states agreed that Biden “is just too old to be an effective president.” Only 28 percent disagreed.

And even though Trump is only three years younger than Biden, voters see him as a spring chicken by comparison. Only 39 percent said the Republican frontrunner “is just too old to be an effective president,” while a 58-percent majority disagreed.

Similarly, only 36 percent of likely voters thought Biden “has the mental sharpness to be an effective president,” while 54 percent thought Trump is mentally sharp enough.

Do you think Joe Biden’s policies have helped you personally or hurt you personally?

Hurt +17

Swing-state voters are also dissatisfied with the current trajectory of the country. Only 23 percent thought the country is headed in the right direction; even among Biden supporters, they were split evenly between saying the country is on the right track (43 percent) and wrong track (42 percent).

Perhaps even more damningly, a majority of voters, 53 percent, said Biden’s policies had “hurt them personally.” Just 36 percent said they’d been helped by Biden’s policies.

By contrast, the numbers are almost a mirror image for Trump: 51 percent said they’d been personally helped by the former president’s policies, while 36 percent said they’d been hurt.

Voters under 30

Biden +6

Biden has a serious problem with young people.

Among likely voters under 30, Biden led Trump in the poll 50 percent to 44 percent. That’s still the president’s best age cohort, but it’s well short of his 2020 benchmark — or any he’d have to hit to be on track to win reelection.

The numbers suggest this is a problem specific to Biden. Young voters were the subgroup most likely to say they think Biden’s too old. And asked how they would vote if Democrats nominated a candidate other than Biden, they broke for the unnamed Democrat in larger numbers, 58 percent to 34 percent.

(Note: It’s not instructive to compare the aggregated battleground-state results to exit polls or other 2020-voter surveys, since those cover the whole nation or individual states specifically. Also, the New York Times/Siena aggregated results granted equal weight to each state individually, even though Pennsylvania has more than four times the population of Nevada, to cite the most extreme example.)

Hispanic voters

Biden +12

Biden won the lion’s share of the vote among Latino voters in 2020, but Trump made inroads among the growing demographic group compared to 2016 — and that trend is continuing in the new data.

Biden led Trump among likely voters who identified as Hispanic or Latino, 52 percent to 40 percent. Again, comparisons to 2020 exit polls are tricky since the new poll isn’t national in scope, but most estimates suggest Biden won 60 to 65 percent of the Hispanic vote in the last election.

Of the swing states included in the new polling, Arizona and Nevada contain the largest percentage of Latino voters; they rank fourth and fifth, respectively, among all states. The others — Georgia (24th), Pennsylvania (30th), Wisconsin (31st) and Michigan (38th) — contain much smaller Latino populations, but it’s still a growing voting bloc.

Most important issue

Economic issues +24

Voters typically pick their presidents based on the economy, and 2024 is shaping up to be no different.

Asked to pick between “economic issues such as jobs, taxes and the cost of living,” and “societal issues, such as abortion, guns or democracy,” a majority, 55 percent, said the economy. Only 31 percent chose societal issues.

That’s a major problem for Biden, since fully half of swing-state voters, 50 percent, rated the economy as “poor.” Only 21 percent said it was “excellent” or “good;” another 29 percent called it “only fair.”

The results are powering Trump’s advantage: More than seven in 10 Trump voters, 71 percent, said economic issues were most important to their vote, while Biden voters were more split: 50 percent said societal issues, while 38 percent chose economic ones.

And even Biden voters aren’t excited about the state of the economy. Combined, more rated it as “only fair” or “poor” (58 percent) than “excellent” or “good” (41 percent).

Should abortion be legal or illegal?

Always/mostly legal +31

How is a two-to-one advantage on the question of abortion — whether it should be always or mostly legal or illegal — a problem for Biden? Because he isn’t winning pro-abortion-rights Trump voters, even more than a year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Four in 10 likely swing-state voters, 40 percent, who picked Trump on the ballot test said they think abortion should always or mostly be legal.

To the extent abortion could help Biden mend his problems with core Democratic-leaning subgroups, it’s more likely to be useful among young voters (73 percent always/mostly legal) than Hispanics (61 percent always/mostly legal).

Wild’s Jared Spurgeon inching closer to return

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The Wild gave fans a treat on Sunday. Instead of the usual drills in what has become an annual outdoor fall practice, Minnesota staged a 3-on-3 scrimmage at the Recreation Outdoor Center in St. Louis Park.

As an additional surprise, the overflow crowd got to see Jared Spurgeon on the rink, skating in competitive hockey.

Spurgeon’s white jerseys, featuring teammates as Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zucarello and Jonas Brodin, rallied from a 5-2 deficit to edge a green team featuring Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman and Joel Eriksson Ek, 6-5.

It was the first time since preseason games that any fans were able to see Spurgeon competing, and the veteran defenseman is set to travel to New York on Monday for a three-game road trip.

That doesn’t mean he’ll play against the Islanders on Tuesday night.

“I don’t know,” coach Dean Evason said. “Obviously, he’s progressing to the point he can be out there playing this (but) he’s still not in contract drills, so we’ll see how he progresses. … We’ll obviously have to evaluate day by day.”

Injured veterans Freddy Gaudreau (upper body) and Alex Goligoski (lower body) were at what has become a family event for the team, and fans, but each was in street clothes. Neither has progressed to skating, and both will stay in Minnesota this week.

Spurgeon hasn’t played since sustaining an upper body injury when he was checked into the boards in an Oct. 5 preseason game in Chicago but has been practicing with teammates since Wednesday.

“If he’s cleared to play and he feels he’s ready to go, then we put him in the lineup,” Evason said. “We obviously want him back, but we also want him healthy for the entire rest of the season.”

Rookie leaders

Center Marco Rossi scored on a pass from Kirill Kaprizov for a 4-3, third-period lead over the New York Rangers on Saturday as the Wild ended a four-game winless streak with a 5-4 shootout victory at Xcel Energy Center.

It was the fifth goal in 11 games this season, tying him with Chicago’s Connor Bedard for the lead among all NHL rookies on Sunday.

Since Evason juggled his lines in the second period of a 5-3 loss to New Jersey last Thursday, Rossi has been playing with wings Kaprizov and Matt Boldy. In those five periods, that trio has combined for three goals — one on a power play — and six assists.

Boldy, who has played in two games since returning from a seven-game injury absence (upper body), scored the deciding goal in Saturday’s shootout.

“They played with a lot of pace. They all have a skill set that helps them find each other,” Evason said “Bolds has only played a couple of games and he’s gonna get better and better, and obviously Rossi and Kirill seem to have a bit of chemistry.”

Briefly

Wing Marcus Johansson did not participate in Sunday’s scrimmage for what Evason called “precautionary reasons” and is expected to practice on Monday before the team leaves for New York.

Gaza has lost telecom contact again; Israel’s military says it has surrounded Gaza City

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DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip — Gaza came under the third total communications outage since the start of the war, while Israel’s military announced late Sunday that it had encircled Gaza City and divided the besieged coastal strip into two.

“Today there is north Gaza and south Gaza,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters, calling it a “significant stage” in Israel’s war against the Hamas militant group. Israeli media reported that troops are expected to enter Gaza City within 48 hours. Strong explosions were seen in the northern Gaza Strip after nightfall.

But the “new collapse in connectivity” across Gaza reported by internet access advocacy group NetBlocks.org and confirmed by Palestinian telecom company Paltel made it even more complicated to convey details of the new stage of the military offensive.

“We have lost communication with the vast majority of the UNRWA team members,” U.N. Palestinian refugee agency spokesperson Juliette Touma told The Associated Press. The first Gaza outage lasted 36 hours and the second one for a few hours.

Earlier Sunday, Israeli warplanes struck two central Gaza refugee camps, killing at least 53 people and wounding dozens, health officials said. Israel said it would press on with its offensive to crush the territory’s Hamas rulers, despite U.S. appeals for even brief pauses to get aid to desperate civilians.

Gaza’s Health Ministry said more than 9,700 Palestinians have been killed in the territory in nearly a month of war, a number likely to rise as Israeli troops advance into dense, urban neighborhoods.

Airstrikes hit the Maghazi refugee camp overnight, killing at least 40 people and wounding 34 others, the Health Ministry said. The camp is in the zone where Israel’s military had urged Palestinian civilians to seek refuge as it focuses its offensive on the north.

An AP reporter at a nearby hospital saw eight dead children, including a baby, brought in after the strike. A surviving child was led down the corridor, her clothes caked in dust, an expression of shock on her face.

Arafat Abu Mashaia, who lives in the camp, said the Israeli airstrike flattened several multi-story homes where people forced out of other parts of Gaza were sheltering.

“It was a true massacre,” he said. “All here are peaceful people. I challenge anyone who says there were resistance (fighters) here.”

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military.

Another airstrike hit a house near a school at the Bureji refugee camp in central Gaza, and staff at Al-Aqsa Hospital told the AP at least 13 people were killed. The camp is home to an estimated 46,000 people and was struck on Thursday as well.

Despite appeals and overseas demonstrations, Israel has continued its bombardment across Gaza, saying it is targeting Hamas and accusing it of using civilians as human shields.

On the ground, Israeli forces in Gaza have reported finding stashes of weapons at times, including explosives, suicide drones and missiles.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the occupied West Bank on Sunday, a day after talks with Arab foreign ministers in neighboring Jordan.

Abbas, who has had no authority in Gaza since Hamas took over in 2007, said the Palestinian Authority would only assume control of Gaza as part of a “comprehensive political solution” establishing an independent state that would also take in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, lands Israel seized in the 1967 war.

His remarks seemed to further narrow the already slim options for who would govern Gaza if Israel succeeds in toppling Hamas. The last peace talks with Israel broke down more than a decade ago, and Israel’s government is dominated by opponents of Palestinian statehood.

Earlier in his tour, Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who on Sunday reiterated while visiting an air force base that “there will be no cease-fire without the return of our abductees.”

Arab leaders have called for an immediate cease-fire. But Blinken said that “would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did on Oct. 7,” when it launched a wide-ranging attack from Gaza into southern Israel, triggering the war.

Swaths of residential neighborhoods in northern Gaza have been leveled in airstrikes. The U.N. office for humanitarian affairs says more than half the remaining residents, estimated at around 300,000, are sheltering in U.N.-run facilities.

Israeli planes once again dropped leaflets urging people to head south during a four-hour window on Sunday. Crowds could be seen walking down Gaza’s main north-south highway carrying baggage, pets and pushing wheelchairs. Others led donkey carts.

One man said they had to walk 500 meters with their hands raised while passing Israeli troops. Another described seeing bodies in damaged cars along the road. “The children saw tanks for the first time. Oh world, have mercy on us,” said one Palestinian who declined to give his name.

Israeli’s military said a one-way corridor would continue for residents in the north to flee to the southern part of Gaza.

The U.N. said about 1.5 million people in Gaza, or 70% of the population, have fled their homes. Food, water and the fuel needed for generators that power hospitals and other facilities is running out. No fuel has come for nearly one month, the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency said.

The war has stoked tensions across the region, with Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group repeatedly trading fire along the border.

Four civilians were killed by an Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon Sunday evening, three of them children, a local civil defense official and state-run media reported. The Israeli military said it had attacked Hezbollah targets in response to anti-tank fire that killed an Israeli civilian.

Hezbollah said they fired Grad rockets from southern Lebanon into Israel in response.

In the occupied West Bank, at least two Palestinians were shot dead during an Israeli arrest raid in Abu Dis, just outside of Jerusalem, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The military said a militant who had set up an armed cell and fired at Israeli forces was killed.

At least 150 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the start of the war, mainly during violent protests and gun battles during raids.

Many Israelis have called for Netanyahu to resign and for the return of roughly 240 hostages held by Hamas. Some families are traveling abroad to try to make sure the hostages aren’t forgotten.

Netanyahu has refused to take responsibility for the Oct. 7 attack that killed more than 1,400 people. Ongoing Palestinian rocket fire has forced tens of thousands of people in Israel to leave their homes.

In another reflection of widespread anger in Israel, a junior government minister, Amihai Eliyahu, suggested in a radio interview that Israel could drop an atomic bomb on Gaza. He later called the remarks “metaphorical.” Netanyahu suspended Eliyahu from cabinet meetings, a move with no practical effect.

Among the Palestinians killed in Gaza are 4,008 children, the Gaza Health Ministry said, without providing a breakdown of civilians and fighters.

The Israeli military said 29 of its soldiers have died during the ground operation.

Gophers men’s basketball: Parker Fox, Isaiah Ihnen bonded through ‘ridiculous’ knee injuries

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Parker Fox and Isaiah Ihnen are joined at the knee.

At the hip, too. But after the forwards on the Gophers men’s basketball team went through consecutive serious knee injuries, which robbed both of them of the past two seasons, especially at the knee. The teammates and roommates bonded as they went side-by-side through the process, not once but twice.

In 2021, Fox needed surgery on the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee as he transferred to the U that spring from Division II Northern State, while Ihnen needed ACL surgery in the summer going into his third season at Minnesota.

In 2022, Fox tore the ACL in his right knee in June, and Ihnen re-injured the ACL in his left knee a few weeks later.

“It was ridiculous, honestly, to have these types of injuries back-to-back,” Ihnen said. “You would not wish that on anyone, but at the same time, it was a blessing to have (Fox) there with me. He’s a very light-hearted guy and very motivated as well. He helped me push myself. I helped him. I pushed him in a sense. It was great to have him.”

Fox and Ihnen are healthy and set to play in the Gophers’ season opener against Bethune-Cookman at Williams Arena at 7 p.m. Monday. They are cherishing their third chances to play college basketball.

Fox, who attended Mahtomedi High School, said he had chills thinking about debuting for his home-state school. His running count of days without a game has eclipsed 960.

“After I tore the second knee, we had a team meeting … and I told the guys,” Fox shared. “The biggest thing that I was just sad about was I don’t get to go practice. I don’t get to go play basketball for a year. I love this sport.”

Head coach Ben Johnson acknowledged he had his doubts that Monday’s game would arrive for Fox and Ihnen. He said there was some relief after they were able to play in the U’s exhibition win over Macalester on Thursday.

“It’s been pretty incredible when you think about it — to even stay motivated to get to this point,” Johnson said. “Two years of the same type of tortuous rehab. I think it shows a certain level of competitiveness within them to do that. They have built confidence where now, I don’t necessarily worry about them mentally on the floor.”

Ihnen said his first injury happened when he slipped on a wet spot on the court. The second time came when he stepped on someone else’s foot during a five-on-five portion of summer practice. Bad luck followed by bad luck.

Fox said his second injury came during a transition drill in practice. He had Ihnen on his left and former teammate Jamison Battle on his right. Fox passed to Battle for a 3-pointer before Fox stepped and his knee gave out. The ominous no-contact variety of injuries.

“I looked at coach and opened my eyes (wide),” Fox recalled. “He’s like, ‘What?’ I was like, ‘I tore it.’ He didn’t believe me, but I knew right away. I think it’s a feeling you don’t know until you do it. But once you do it twice you’re like, yep, there it goes.”

Fox recalled telling Johnson as he left the practice facility later that day: “I’ll play for you one day.”

Ihnen went home to Germany for a spell after his second knee injury, while Fox took leave in Mahtomedi for a while. His family moved his bed down to the living room, so he didn’t have to navigate stairs.

“There’s dog days of surgery where you can’t even stand on your leg,” Fox said. “You can knock on your leg and you just feel bone, it’s like, ‘There’s no way I can get back on that court.’ ”

The loquacious Fox started a podcast, in part, to learn how others got through their own serious injuries. His guests include U volleyball player Taylor Landfair, football player Chris Autman-Bell, former basketball teammate Eric Curry and Ihnen, of course. The conversation flowed with Ihnen.

“I mean, I spent more time with that dude than you guys even know,” Fox told reporters in late October. “I love him to death. We spent just so much, like every practice, three-hour practice, we were in the training room together.”

Ihnen said Fox helped from “not feeling alone.” Ihnen, the only player still in the program from the Richard Pitino era, showed he can drive himself, too.

“I don’t ever want to be a quitter,” Ihnen said. “When I committed to this school, I came here with the intention of being a part of this school and helping them win here. That was the first reason. The second reason was just the (Johnson) coaching staff that came in. We immediately clicked.”

Fox and Ihnen also connect as fans of big European soccer clubs, with Fox supporting London side Tottenham Hotspur and Ihnen backing Bayern Munich. When star English striker Harry Kane transferred from Tottenham to Bayern earlier this year, Ihnen gave Fox a hard time.

“We definitely had a little bit of back and forth joking around about that,” Ihnen said. “But it’s a better club, so who can fault (Kane).”

At home, Fox sets the standard for cleanliness; U teammates Jackson Purcell and Will Ramberg also share the space. Ihnen says he’s tidy, too, but nowhere near the same level as Fox.

“It damn near borders on OCD a little bit,” Ihnen said.  “But he makes sure the apartment is always clean. I feel like it’s very important because I’ve had the opposite of that where the roommate weren’t clean at all. It’s great.”

If Ihnen isn’t the cleanest, what does he provide as a roomie?

“I guess good energy, good vibes,” Fox said. “It’s not cleaning the kitchen, I’ll tell you that much.”

Their apartment has a wall of five TVs. It’s a sports fan heaven, where a junkie like Fox watches any game he can get, including former teammate Payton Willis playing abroad in Italy. Maybe late Monday night, Fox and Ihnen will return from the Barn to their apartment and watch highlights of themselves playing for the Gophers.

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