Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Herb Jackson | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — Unlike this year’s presidential and Senate races that are focused on a few intensely competitive states, there is no shortage of House battlegrounds across the country as Republicans look to expand their narrow majority while Democrats work to seize back the gavel they lost in 2022.

Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales has nine incumbents — four Democrats and five Republicans — in races rated Toss-up and another 17 rated either Tilt Democratic or Tilt Republican, a classification that’s just a hair beyond Toss-up.

To identify the 10 most vulnerable and rank them, Roll Call’s campaign team quizzed party insiders and interest group leaders over the past two weeks and analyzed district dynamics, polling and candidates’ campaign finances. Unlike the Senate, where the traditional Top 10 has only seven names in the latest update, it was a challenge paring this list to just 10 because there are certainly many more incumbents battling for survival on Nov. 5.

As with earlier versions of this list published in May, in November, and in May 2023, Republicans from California and New York are well represented because they dominate the roster of members who won seats in 2022 that in 2020 backed Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump.

From the beginning of this election cycle, Democrats have been targeting the “Biden-district Republicans” as they seek to flip the net of four seats needed to control the chamber next year. The GOP also knows that, however, and has worked to shore up their colleagues.

Democrats are also playing defense, especially for members from Washington state and Alaska who hold seats that backed Trump in 2020. Alaska’s Mary Peltola makes the list for the first time this cycle after the state’s complicated primary process ended up with only one GOP opponent compared with the two she faced in 2022.

Some members on earlier versions of this list are not on this one because their prospects improved, such as New York Republican Mike Lawler, whose race rating was upgraded by Inside Elections from Toss-up to Tilt Republican. But others are gone because they proved their vulnerability by losing primaries, as Democrats Cori Bush and Jamal Bowman did, or were actually expelled by their colleagues, as Republican George Santos was.

This list may change again before Election Day, especially after fundraising results from the crucial third quarter are reported Oct. 15. Not on this list, for example, is Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, a Republican whose biggest threat comes not from a Democrat but from his party’s presidential nominee, Trump. Trump has called for his ouster because Newhouse voted to impeach him after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol by Trump supporters. Newhouse got just 23 percent of the vote in the state’s all-party primary last month, well behind the 33 percent received by Trump-backed rival Jerrod Sessler, who will be on the ballot with Newhouse in November.

In all, the latest list includes six Republicans and four Democrats, in line with what’s expected to be a close battle for control of the House. Inside Elections’ latest House projection ranges from a Democratic gain of five seats to a Republican gain of five seats.

Williams, whose district became more Democratic-leaning when New York adopted a new congressional map earlier this year, holds on to the distinction as the most vulnerable House member. He will face John Mannion, a state senator who won a competitive June primary. That dynamic left Williams in a stronger financial position at the end of the second quarter, when he had $1.4 million on hand compared to Mannion’s $341,000.

Duarte, a nursery owner from Modesto, will face Democrat Adam Gray in a rematch of their 2022 contest, which Duarte won by less than 600 votes. Democrats have a 42 percent to 29 percent voter registration advantage in the district, which runs along Interstate 5 and covers a broad swath of the rural Central Valley. Duarte is hoping his reputation as a moderate and his focus on water issues will push him to victory while Gray touts his record in the Assembly, where he helped secure funding to address gang violence, bolster water infrastructure and build a new medical school in the region. Duarte had $2 million on hand to Gray’s $1.8 million.

D’Esposito faces a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he beat in 2022, a strong year for Republicans in New York. The GOP is optimistic about another strong year in the Empire State, but D’Esposito will need to overcome a district which Biden would have won easily, as well as Gillen’s slight cash advantage as of June 30, when she had $2.5 million on hand to his $2.2 million. Gillen’s opening ad of the general election sought to reintroduce her to the public and touched on crime and border security – two issues typically focused on by Republicans and that have been focal points in recent Long Island races.

Gluesenkamp Pérez has drawn national attention for her blue-collar roots as she seeks a second term in a GOP-leaning district in southwest Washington. She’s running against Joe Kent, a Trump-backed Republican she narrowly beat in 2022. National GOP leaders have warmed to Kent, saying he’s running a stronger campaign than he did two years ago. But he trailed Gluesenkamp Pérez in fundraising, with $585,000 on hand to her $3.8 million. Gluesenkamp Pérez, co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, has emphasized her political independence. Earlier this year, she not only called on Biden to drop his reelection bid but suggested he resign from office due to concerns about his mental acuity.

Davis stays in the middle of the list as he seeks a second term in North Carolina’s only Toss-up district, which covers the northeastern part of the state. The former state senator faces Republican Laurie Buckhout, a veteran and businesswoman who is focusing largely on border security. Buckhout partially self-funded her primary campaign, but had $600,000 on hand as of June 30, compared to Davis’ $2.6 million. Outside spending is starting to pick up in the race.

After narrowly defeating progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022, freshman Chavez-DeRemer faces Democrat Janelle Bynum in a battleground district that reaches from the Portland suburbs to rural regions to the south and east. Bynum, a state lawmaker and McDonald’s franchisee, has emphasized kitchen table issues and has criticized Chavez-DeRemer on abortion rights. Republicans have attacked Bynum over her support for police reform legislation. A poll by Inside Elections last week had Bynum at 41 percent to Chavez-DeRemer’s 39 percent, within the margin of error. Chavez-DeRemer had $2.4 million in the bank to Bynum’s $1.1 million.

Running in a suburban swing district centered on Omaha, Bacon is used to tight races. He beat Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas by 3 percentage points in 2022, but Democrats are hoping for a different outcome in a presidential year, especially following Biden’s decision to step aside. Bacon says he’s a centrist willing to work across the aisle but Vargas called his GOP opponent “an extremist in moderate’s clothing.” Meanwhile, Republicans have attacked Vargas as a big-spending liberal who walks in lockstep with his party. Recent polls suggest the race remains a Toss-up and the candidates’ bank accounts were closely matched: Bacon had $2.2 million on hand to Vargas’ $2.5 million.

Running for reelection to the state’s sole congressional district, Peltola faces Republican Nick Begich, Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe, and Democrat Eric Hafner, who is currently imprisoned in New Jersey, in the ranked choice general election in November. Peltola has carved out a unique brand in a place that puts a high value on political independence: her website touts her support for guns and abortion. She enjoys a big cash advantage, with $2.8 million on hand to Begich’s $172,000. Still Peltola faces a potential tough climb in a state that Trump won by 10 percentage points and as the lone Republican on the ballot, Begich can unify the GOP.

Garcia has long been viewed as vulnerable in the battleground district north of Los Angeles, where Democratic voter registration outpaces Republican registration by 13 percentage points and Biden won by 13 points. Garcia’s 2022 win marked the third time that the former naval officer and first-generation American defeated Democrat Christy Smith. But this year, he’s facing a new opponent: George Whitesides, the former CEO of the space tourism company Virgin Galactic. Whitesides loaned his campaign $1.3 million and had $3.9 million on hand; Garcia had $2.2 million.

A veteran of tough races, Cartwright faces another this fall against Republican Rob Bresnahan, who’s considered a stronger candidate than recent GOP challengers. Republicans are seeking to tie Cartwright to Biden in one of the five districts held by a Democrat that Trump would have won in 2020. The presidential year dynamics will once again make for a competitive race in the 8th District. Cartwright had $4.5 million on hand at the end of June compared to Bresnahan’s $1.2 million.

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©2024 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Noah Bierman | (TNS) Los Angeles Times

LOS ANGELES — When a group of 50 Democrats of Caribbean descent gathered to watch the presidential debate in a South Florida suburb this week, the room filled with stunned laughs as former President Trump repeated a baseless rumor that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were stealing dogs and cats so they could eat them.

“How can this person be a candidate to be president?” asked Guithele Ruiz-Nicolas, past president of Haitian American Democratic Club of Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale.

The laughs quickly turned to anger, said Ruiz-Nicolas, who came to the United States with her parents as a child in the 1960s, and has seen new and shocking levels of bigotry directed at her people, who she said were long welcomed with open arms.

“Our best revenge is to go out and get the votes out,” said Ruiz-Nicolas, adding that Trump’s comments have fueled new efforts to achieve that goal.

Florida is a longshot for Democrats. Trump won the state twice, including a 3-percentage-point victory in 2020. And the state has turned more Republican since then with the landslide reelection of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022.

But it was considered a battleground before that. And recent polls showing Trump with margins of between 2 and 6 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. That and an abortion rights ballot initiative that could turn out liberal voters have given Democrats glimmers of hope that they can at least be competitive and perhaps swing some down ballot races.

The state’s Haitian American population, estimated at about 500,000, is the nation’s largest and votes predominantly Democratic.

Haitian immigrants concentrated in South Florida, who came fleeing economic and political instability, have risen to fill numerous seats in city and county commissions, the state legislature and Congress. Haitian doctors and nurses fill hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the surrounding suburbs. Many newer immigrants take back-breaking jobs that native-born Floridians turn down.

“Let’s be clear: Haitians and other immigrants come to this country committed to education, hard work and building a better life, not just for themselves but for all of us,” said Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a Haitian American Democrat from South Florida, in a statement. “They contribute to our economy, enrich our culture, and strengthen our communities. Trump’s comments are a distraction from the real issues we face, and we won’t be fooled.”

Estimates of Haitian American voters range from 100,000 to 300,000, but Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster based in Miami, said they probably account for less than 1% of the voting population. Many were already motivated to elect Harris, the daughter of a Jamaican immigrant who has led the Biden administration’s foreign policy in the Caribbean.

“In Florida, we’ve seen the state and the presidency decided by 537 votes so any group can potentially sway an election or the presidency for that matter,” said Amandi, referring to the margin of victory in the contested 2000 election that came down to the Sunshine State. “I just don’t think it’s in the cards in 2024.”

Amandi said it’s “plausible, probably not probable” that Florida would turn blue in the case of a landslide victory for Harris at the national level.

Trump press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that “the media is trying to distract the American people from the very real problems plaguing the residents of Springfield, Oh,” blaming the “sudden influx of migrants” for spiking rents, stressed schools and public safety incidents.

Trump’s 2020 victory in Florida came after he called Haiti a “shithole country.”

That comment stung, too.

“We see this movie play all over again, every time there’s a tragedy of immigrants being forced to flee their countries,” said Gepsie Morisset-Metellus, co-founder and executive director of the Sant La Haitian Neighborhood Center, a neighborhood resource center in North Miami.

Morisset-Metellus said she is especially concerned for Haitian residents of Springfield, Ohio, who are being threatened and intimidated by racists, according to published reports that have spread through the Haitian diaspora. Most of them are in the country legally and came to the area because there were jobs and a growing support network of fellow immigrants.

Morisset-Metellus said community members are outraged and contemplating what actions to take. But she is sure about one of them.

“People have always cared about these elections and the Haitian American community its a highly engaged voter population and people don’t miss elections,” she said. “They care.”

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©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

By DAVID KLEPPER

WASHINGTON (AP) —

The U.S. State Department announced new sanctions on Russian state media Friday, accusing a Kremlin news outlet of working hand-in-hand with the Russian military and running fundraising campaigns to pay for sniper rifles, body armor and other equipment for soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

While the outlet, RT, has previously been sanctioned for its work to spread Kremlin propaganda and disinformation, the allegations announced Friday suggest its role goes far beyond influence operations. Instead, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, RT is a key part of Russia’s war machine and its efforts to undermine its democratic allies.

“RT wants its new covert intelligence capabilities, like its longstanding propaganda disinformation efforts, to remain hidden,” Blinken said Friday. “Our most powerful antidote to Russia’s lies is the truth. It’s shining a bright light on what the Kremlin is trying to do under the cover of darkness.”

RT has also created websites posing as legitimate news sites to spread disinformation and propaganda in Europe, Africa, South America and elsewhere, officials said. They say the outlet has also expanded its use of cyber operations with a new unit with ties to Russian intelligence created last year.

The crowd-sourcing effort sought to raise funds for Russian military supplies, some of which were procured in China, officials said. There were no obvious connections between RT and the fundraising campaign, or any indication that Chinese officials knew their products were being sold to Russia.

RT’s actions show “it’s not just a firehouse of disinformation, but a fully fledged member of the intelligence apparatus and operation of the Russian government,” said Jamie Rubin, who heads the State Department’s Global Engagement Center.

The sanctions announced Friday target RT’s parent organization, TV-Novosti, as well as a related state media group called Rossiya Segodnya, as well as Dmitry Kiselyov, Rossiya Segodnya’s general director. A third organization and its leader, Nelli Parutenko, were also sanctioned for allegedly running a vote-buying scheme in Moldova designed to help Moscow’s preferred candidates in an upcoming election.

Jennifer Epstein, Nancy Cook, Skylar Woodhouse | (TNS) Bloomberg News

Vice President Kamala Harris is looking to harness the momentum from her strong showing in Tuesday’s presidential debate with a tour of key swing states, even as her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, is about to embark on a trip to the West, where he’ll be pressed to show donors and supporters a plan to regain his footing.

For the Democratic nominee, visits to North Carolina and Pennsylvania — two crucial battlegrounds in November’s election — offer the opportunity to solidify support among swing voters considering her candidacy anew after her promising debate performance.

With early voting starting soon, Democrats are also eager to bank support, particularly as enthusiasm among the party faithful has swollen in the hours since the candidates squared off in Philadelphia.

Trump plans a fevered stretch of campaigning, including a press conference, rallies and high-dollar fundraisers across Arizona, Nevada, and California that have taken on new significance after his rocky debate performance that even some of his top supporters acknowledge could have gone better.

While the former president’s allies insist the debate is unlikely to be a make-or-break moment like his exchange with President Joe Biden in June, which effectively ended the president’s half-century political career, the pressure is back on Republicans to blunt Harris’s momentum.

Trump’s frustration in the aftermath of the debate has largely focused on ABC News moderators who fact-checked his claims in real time, leading allies to believe he’s not likely to shake up his campaign staff. But the Republican nominee could use his western swing to offer a new policy proposal to reshape the narrative, as he’s done in the past.

Harris’ team says it is shifting into a new, more assertive phase on the campaign trail. After limiting her interactions with the press — and facing criticism from Republicans and members of the media — she will begin sitting for more interviews, including some with battleground state outlets in the coming days and with the National Association of Black Journalists next week.

Former President Barack Obama will also appear at a major fundraiser for Harris in Los Angeles on Sept. 20, according to a person familiar with the schedule, which will help boost her campaign coffers and fund get-out-the-vote efforts.

The debate has the air of a missed opportunity for Trump, who has an Electoral College advantage and is favored to prevail if the race remains tight.

Polls have found Trump and Harris generally running neck-and-neck in surveys of the seven swing states expected to decide the election. A New York Times/Siena College poll on Sunday showed Trump led Harris nationally by a point.

“Our team could not be prouder of President Trump for delivering a masterful debate performance in a 3-on-1 fight against lying Kamala Harris,” said Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, who accused the moderators of bias.

Trump spinHarris, by contrast, is riding high after the debate – and Taylor Swift’s endorsement – seeking to translate that boost into votes. Her debate performance saw her odds of winning the election increase in betting markets and 63% of registered voters say she did a better job than Trump in a CNN flash poll.

Though he repeatedly declared victory in his debate spin, Trump appeared to acknowledge that the night didn’t go particularly well. He visited the post-debate spin room — something candidates typically don’t do — and called into “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday morning to vent his frustrations.

Trump in the Fox News interview sounded agitated, frequently cutting off the hosts as he complained he’d endured “a rigged deal” and accusing ABC News’ moderators of siding with Harris.

Harris’ top aides began calling for a second debate before the candidates had even left the stage in Philadelphia.

Fox News has proposed three October dates for a matchup moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, who are seen as less partial to Trump than other network anchors. During his “Fox & Friends” interview, Trump instead suggested right-wing commentators Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham and Jesse Watters as hosts, an arrangement Harris is almost certain to reject.

“The first thing they did is ask for a debate because when a fighter loses, he says ‘I want a rematch,’” Trump said on Fox. “I’d be less inclined to because we had a great night, we won the debate, we had a terrible network.”

Later in the day, he told reporters he might be open to a debate moderated by Fox News or NBC News.

Three Trump advisers said they couldn’t see him committing to facing Harris again.

“I would not do a second debate if I were him. She would never agree to a debate where she doesn’t have a tag team,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a longtime ally, echoing Trump’s claims that ABC News was biased.

Early votingHarris, her running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, and their spouses will travel to the battleground states over four days, according to the campaign, which has pegged it as the “New Way Forward Tour,” seeking to persuade voters who desire change that Harris is their candidate. That could be a challenging message for a Democrat whose agenda is largely aligned with Biden, something Trump regularly points out.

The Harris campaign is also launching advertisements to underscore that message, including some featuring debate footage. In the first, released late Wednesday, Trump bemoans “a failing nation” while Harris offers a more optimistic view. Other ads will tout her proposals to make food, housing and prescription drugs more affordable.

Harris’ visits to North Carolina and Pennsylvania are also intended to secure early votes in the two states. Her Thursday stops in Charlotte and Greensboro, North Carolina, were timed to the planned distribution of absentee ballots.

North Carolina, however, delayed its distribution of ballots after Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who abandoned his independent presidential campaign to endorse Trump, successfully sued to have his name removed.

Harris’ Friday rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, will occur three days before that battleground becomes the first in the nation to kick off early voting, with Virginia, South Dakota and Vermont following next week.

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(With assistance from Akayla Gardner.)

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©2024 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.