Analysis: Rating change: Presidential race looks even between Biden, Trump

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Nathan L. Gonzales | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call

WASHINGTON — While the presidential race is careening toward a rematch, 2024 won’t necessarily be a replay of 2020.

The race looks familiar with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump topping the ballot, but both men are bringing more baggage to the contest, creating a level of volatility that doesn’t often accompany rematches.

The familiar is apparently fueling optimism from the incumbent. “I’m the only one who has ever beat him. And I’ll beat him again,” Biden told The New Yorker recently about facing Trump again. But Biden is in a fundamentally weaker position this time around.

Instead of a challenger facing an unpopular incumbent, Biden is the unpopular incumbent seeking reelection. Voters are holding Biden responsible for the country’s ills while romanticizing (or at least forgetting about) the challenges during Trump’s first term.

Biden’s job rating has been poor and steady for two-and-a-half years. The president’s disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating ever since the country’s exit from Afghanistan. Biden is also the country’s oldest president in history with a disproportionate focus on his ability to serve a second term.

Last fall, Democrats comforted themselves by comparing Biden’s unpopularity to President Barack Obama’s standing in 2011. But Obama’s job rating had improved by this point in 2012.

Since public opinion has hardened around Biden, the president will likely have to rely on voters who disapprove of the president to support him for a second term. Luckily for Democrats, Trump gives Biden an opening to do just that.

With more than 90 indictments in four different federal cases, hundreds of millions of dollars in fines due in civil cases and his unwillingness to call off his supporters as they invaded the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump has given independent voters reasons to pause before giving him a second term.

Yet despite his remarkable list of liabilities, Trump is in a strong position if the election were held today. He leads by a couple points in the national polling average, which doesn’t mean as much as his polling lead in key swing states including ArizonaNevadaMichiganNorth Carolina and Georgia. But the election is more than seven months away.

Optimistic Democrats will argue that Trump is hovering where he’s always been, and his polling advantage is a result of Biden’s soft support. But that glosses over the president’s challenge in the race and the uphill climb to avoid the same fate as other unpopular incumbents who lost reelection, including President George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Trump in 2020.

While Biden may still ultimately win the race, it’s hard to see him with a fundamental advantage, as our current race ratings reflect.

Inside Elections is changing Michigan (and its 15 Electoral College votes) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up. With that change, the GOP nominee is favored to win 235 Electoral College votes compared to 232 for the Democratic nominee, leaving both short of the 270 needed to win. That leaves five states and 71 Electoral College votes in Toss-up, including Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).

Since ratings are a combination of where a race is and where it’s most likely to end up, states such as Nevada remain in Tilt Democratic for now. Even though it appears Trump currently has a lead, Republicans haven’t won the Silver State in a presidential race since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004. But Trump doesn’t need to win Nevada in order to get to the White House.

On the other hand, Biden is at risk of losing Georgia, despite his narrow 2020 win and Democratic success in recent Senate races. Biden is the only Democrat to win the Peach State since Democrat Bill Clinton’s victory with 43.5% in 1992. But Biden doesn’t need Georgia for a reelection.

As the general election comes into focus, Democrats are counting on the contrast to boost Biden’s standing among base Democrats and independents. It’s a plausible path to victory, but if the race doesn’t start to take that shape before too long, it could be a difficult hole for Biden to climb out of.

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Source: Vikings agree to terms with defensive tackle Jerry Tillery

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The infusion of talent on defense continues for the Vikings.

After signing a handful of players early in free agency, the Vikings have added defensive tackle Jerry Tillery. A source confirmed the deal to the Pioneer Press. According to NFL Network insider Tom Pelissero, it will be a 1-year deal for Tillery that could be worth as much as $3.75 million.

No doubt the Vikings are hoping defensive coordinator Brian Flores can help Tillery take his game to the next level. After being selected by the Los Angeles Chargers the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft Tillery hasn’t yet lived up to his potential. He’s also played for the Las Vegas Raiders.

It’s likely that Tillery will play in a situational role for the Vikings next season. He joins a position group that is led by defensive tackle Harrison Phillips and defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard.

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What’s next for top Chicago White Sox prospects Colson Montgomery, Noah Schultz and Edgar Quero?

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Paul Janish described his first few months as Chicago White Sox director of player development as a hectic and exciting time.

The former big-league infielder took on the role in November after working on Rice University’s baseball staff since August 2017, including the last two seasons as the associate head coach.

He’s digging in to his responsibilities with the Sox.

“I’m glad to finally be on site (in Arizona) with a bunch of people in the same room because up to this point it’s been a lot of virtual stuff,” Janish said during a video conference last week. “With spring training right around the corner, just hitting the ground and getting in the trenches a little bit with both staff and players and becoming more familiar with everybody.”

Janish provided updates on the top three prospects in the organization, according to MLB.com — shortstop Colson Montgomery, pitcher Noah Schultz and catcher Edgar Quero — as spring training gets closer.

No. 1 prospect: Colson Montgomery

The team’s first-round pick in 2021 spent time at three levels — the Arizona Complex League White Sox, Class A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham — after a midback strain delayed his start to the 2023 season.

The 21-year-old slashed .287/.456/.484 with 14 doubles, eight home runs and 37 RBIs in 64 games. He also had three homers and 20 RBIs in 20 games during the Arizona Fall League and was the MVP of the Fall Stars Game.

“Colson’s got a bright future, there’s no question about it,” Janish said. “With regards to where he’s starting (the season), some of that’s to be determined. At the end of the day, the goal is for him to be a really good major-league player, and I think that’s going to happen.”

When it comes to Montgomery’s timeline to the majors, Janish said it’s hard to predict.

“He’s going to choose his own path with regards to production, and there’s going to have to be some decisions made on just evaluating when he’s ready to go up to stay,” Janish said. “Because with that kind of player, you really want him to get to the major leagues at a time in which he’s ready to contribute and produce and stay there for good.

“So some of that stuff is to be determined. What I do know is he’s a really good kid, and he’s excited about coming to major-league camp.”

No. 2 prospect: Noah Schultz

The Sox selected the left-hander with the No. 26 pick in the 2022 draft. Schultz, 20, went 1-2 with a 1.33 ERA during 10 starts for Class A Kannapolis last year after dealing with a forearm strain. He went on the injured list in late August with shoulder impingement.

“First of all, he’s huge,” Janish said with a laugh about the 6-foot-9 Schultz. “I had the opportunity to meet him here recently in Arizona, and from a health standpoint, I think he’s in a good place going into the season.

“There’s a strength element that’s going to continue to develop over the course of time that will help him be more consistent. But we’re really excited. He’s got all the talent in the world, and it’s just going to come down to being really intentional with his development program and making sure as he progresses that we’re not giving him too much before he’s ready for it.”

Schultz, who went to Oswego East High School, had 38 strikeouts in 27 innings in 2023 for the Cannon Ballers.

“(Noah is) a really good kid, really talented kid and he really wants to be good,” Janish said.

No. 3 prospect: Edgar Quero

The Sox acquired the switch-hitting catcher along with pitcher Ky Bush — ranked the team’s No. 9 prospect — in the July 26 trade that sent pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López to the Los Angeles Angels.

Quero, 20, slashed .277/.366/.393 with four doubles, three home runs and 22 RBIs in 31 games with Birmingham after the trade.

Janish said Quero goes about his work “pretty intentionally.”

“The work ethic is something he’s got in him,” Janish said, “and he’s currently developing a little bit of a routine on a day-to-day basis to maintain throughout the course of a season, which we can all sympathize with.

“That position requires a lot both mentally and physically. At the end of the day, he really needs to play. He’s in a really good spot for his age, and his ability is going to give him the opportunity to play in the major leagues.

“We just want him to be at a point where he’s ready to be consistent at that level, which, at that position in particular, we all know is going to be asking a lot.”

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Some of the tough questions new Minnesota United coach Eric Ramsay faced in interviews

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Amos Magee had an hands-on role in Minnesota United’s hiring of new head coach Eric Ramsay, and Magee asked some pointed questions during the interview process.

Magee, the Loons’ VP of Youth Development, was part of the small group within the club that helped whittle down a “quarterfinalist” pool of 30 or so candidates down to single-digit “finalists,” and then he provided recommendations to Chief Soccer Officer Khaled El-Ahmad and CEO Shari Ballard.

For Magee, the first thing that jumped out about Ramsay’s resume was his top-line experience at Manchester United in the English Premier League.

“He had been in the role under three different managers,” Magee said in an interview with the Pioneer Press. “I think it’s very easy to have a relationship under one manager. … But when the second and the third consecutively keep you on, I think it’s pretty good indicator that you’re showing real quality and real benefit to the club, and the club values you and the new manager values you.”

The second piece that Magee noted was Ramsay’s responses to various questions about club culture, mentality for high performances and tactics.

“All of those were unique, made a lot of sense and were exciting and refreshing,” Magee said this week. “So that kind of impression, coupled together, made me really want to basically sit in front of him and have a conversation with him, because the answers given were, in my opinion, so exciting.”

Magee also asked frank questions of Ramsay, including about the 32-year-old’s lack of first-team head coaching experience.

“That was one of my pointed questions to ask him about it,” Magee said. “I think he was really honest and says, ‘Listen, I’ve been studying, I’ve been thinking about it. I’ve been observing. I think it’s a step I’m ready to take.’ I feel, and I think he felt, similarly that you never quite know, right?”

Magee anticipates there will be on-the-job learning experiences — similar to anyone in a new gig.

“How does he deal with the pressure, the scrutiny, the in-match decision-making? Well, he’s been living it as an assistant for the last three years at the top level in the world,” Magee said. “I don’t think he’s gonna be, in my impression, … fazed by any of that.”

Magee asked him about why he chose to come to MLS and not stay and advance in England, including an opportunity with El-Ahmad at Barnsley two years ago.

“Basically, he said, lower divisions in England tend to lack sort of diversity of culture, language, they tend to be pretty English, pretty UK-based,” Magee relayed. “He’s like, ‘I want to coach at the highest level, and to coach at the highest level, you have multicultural locker rooms. And MLS has multicultural locker rooms, trying to get South Americans on the same page as Minnesotans on the same page as (Europeans).”

Given his leadership position with MNUFC, Magee wanted to know about the role of a youth academy in Ramsay’s vision for a first team. It was one of Magee’s opening questions.

“He comes from a culture where young players are expected to be impactful at first-team level,” Magee shared. “He was pretty clear about his ideas of communicating with academy coaches, academy players, academy staff, to make sure that we’re supported, that we have an idea of what he’s looking for. That there is shared ideas and resources.”

Magee also said Ramsay conveyed a humility about how there is more he can learn from an academy as well.

Given Ramsay’s apparent ambitions, will MNUFC be but a stepping stone to the next rung on the career ladder?

Magee mentioned that Ramsay is in the process of moving to Minnesota with his wife, Sioned, and two children, Jack and Lilie, both under than age of three. Sioned attended Eric’s news conference at Allianz Field on Wednesday.

“My sense is he realizes he has plenty of time to realize his ambitions and his goals,” Magee said. “He wants to be in a real learning and a real high-performance environment where his family will be part of it. I don’t get the sense that this is a way station to where he wants to be. Turning down a couple of other opportunities and jobs, he’s (effectively) saying, ‘No, this is a place (in Minnesota) that, I think, is at the right time and right place for me and my family.’ ”

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