WASHINGTON — La Nina, the cooler and at times costlier flip side of El Nino, has arrived to warp weather worldwide, meteorologists said Thursday. This natural weather phenomenon often turbocharges the Atlantic hurricane season, but this La Nina may be too weak and fleeting to cause much trouble.

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In the United States, La Nina often means more precipitation — including possible snowstorms — in northern areas and winter dryness in the South. It can bring heavier rains in Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America and southeastern Africa. It also can mean drought in the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, Korea and southern Japan, meteorologists said.

A La Nina occurs when certain parts of the Central Pacific Ocean cool by 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit compared to normal. The world had been flirting with one this year and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared Thursday that La Nina conditions have formed. But it’s likely to be not very strong and may disappear in the next few months, based on multi-factor computer model forecasts by NOAA and Columbia University, said Michelle L’Heureux, lead scientist on the NOAA team that studies both La Nina and El Nino.

“There is a three out of four chance it will remain a weak event,” L’Heureux said in an email. “A weaker event tends to exert less of an influence on the global circulation, so it’s possible there will be surprises ahead.”

Surprising already describes the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which was forecast to be stronger than normal, but so far is a tad below average in activity. Traditionally, during a La Nina, there’s a weakening of the wind shear that hampers hurricane formation and strengthening, allowing more and bigger storms, especially later in the year, such as late October and into early November and in the Caribbean, said University of Albany hurricane expert Brian Tang.

But Brian McNoldy, who studies tropical cyclones, sea level rise and extreme heat at the University of Miami, said he thinks this La Nina is too late and too little to do much.

The conditions, especially wind shear, favor more hurricane activity, yet it’s not happening and long-range computer models don’t show much forming for the next couple weeks, said Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.

Winter a year ago had a similar weak La Nina but there were still some signs of its impact, L’Heureux said.

FILE – People clear a sidewalk during a winter snowstorm in Philadelphia, Feb. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

Some studies have shown that in the United States, La Nina can be more costly than its warmer El Nino cousin. A 1999 economic study found that drought from La Nina cost U.S. agriculture between $2.2 billion to $6.5 billion, which is far more than the $1.5 billion cost of El Nino.

A cold La Nina is not always the more expensive version, but it is often the case, said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting.

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MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia’s air defense were to blame for downing an Azerbaijani jetliner in December that killed 38 people, his first admission of responsibility for the crash in an apparent bid to ease tensions between the neighbors.

Putin said the missiles fired by Russian air defenses to target a Ukrainian drone exploded near the Azerbaijani Airlines plane flying from Baku as it was preparing to land in Grozny, the regional capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, on Dec. 25, 2024. Ukrainian drones have regularly struck deep inside Russia.

Speaking at a meeting with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Tajikistan’s capital of Dushanbe, where both arrived to attend a summit of the former Soviet nations, Putin pledged to punish those responsible and provide compensation for the victims.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev talk during their meeting on the sidelines of the Russia-Central Asia summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025. (Grigory Sysoyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Azerbaijani authorities said the jet was accidentally hit by fire from Russian air defenses, then tried to land in western Kazakhstan, where it crashed and killed 38 of 67 people aboard.

Days after the crash, Putin apologized to Aliyev for what he called a “tragic incident” but stopped short of acknowledging responsibility. Aliyev, meanwhile, criticized Moscow for trying to “hush up” the incident.

The controversy over the crash has roiled the previously warm ties between Moscow and Baku. Their relations were further destabilized by deaths of ethnic Azerbaijanis rounded up by police in a Russian city in June and a series of arrests of Russians in Azerbaijan.

By STEPHEN GROVES, MARY CLARE JALONICK and MATT BROWN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — A president looking to seize power beyond the executive branch. A Congress controlled by Republican lawmakers unwilling to directly defy him. And a minority party looking for any way to fight back.

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The dynamic left Washington in a stalemate Thursday — the ninth day of the government shutdown — and lawmakers openly venting their frustration as they tried to gain traction without the trust that is typically the foundation of any bipartisan deal.

“To have good-faith conversations, you have to have trust. There’s a real challenge of trust,” said Rep. Brad Schneider, chair of the New Democratic Coalition, a pragmatic group of House Democrats.

Groups of lawmakers — huddled over dinners, on phone calls, and in private meetings — have tried to brainstorm ways out of the standoff that has shuttered government offices, kept hundreds of thousands of federal employees at home and threatened to leave them without a scheduled payday. But lawmakers have found themselves running up against the reality that the relationship between the two parties is badly broken.

“We’re in an environment where we need more than a handshake,” said Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who has engaged in talks with Republicans.

President Donald Trump and Republicans have so far held to the stance that they will only negotiate on Democratic demands around health care benefits after they vote to reopen the government. They also say Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer is beholden to the left wing of his party and only staging the shutdown fight to stave off a primary challenge.

“There are some things that I think there is interest on both sides in trying to address when it comes to health care in this country,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Wednesday. “But you can’t take the federal government hostage and expect to have a reasonable conversation on those issues.”

When a handshake deal is not enough

Democrats have insisted they can’t take Trump at his word and therefore need more than a verbal commitment for any deal.

“Donald Trump has no respect for law if he can push outside it, so I think we need some safeguards,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat.

Conflicts over spending power had already been raging before the shutdown as the White House pushed to assert maximum power over congressionally approved budgets. The White House budget office had canceled scores of government contracts, including cutting out the legislative branch entirely with a $4.9 billion cut to foreign aid in August through a legally dubious process known as a “pocket rescission.”

That enraged Democrats — as well as irked some Republicans who criticized it as executive overreach.

“I hate rescissions, to be honest with you, unless they’re congressionally approved,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican.

Matt Glassman, a fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, said the president’s use of rescissions was “blowing up the underlying dynamic of the bargaining” because it inserts intense partisanship into the budget appropriations process that otherwise requires compromise, particularly in the Senate.

Then, as the government entered a shutdown, Trump’s budget director Russ Vought laid out arguments that the president would have even more power to lay off workers and even cancel pay due to furloughed federal workers once the funding lapse is solved. Vought has also announced that the administration was withholding billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in states with Democratic senators who have voted for the shutdown.

Trump has cast Vought’s actions as the consequences of Democratic obstruction, even sharing a video that depicted him as the grim reaper. But on Capitol Hill, there has been an acknowledgment that the hardball tactics are making it harder to negotiate.

“I think with senators carrots work better than sticks,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican.

One Democratic idea may win GOP support

Before they vote to reopen the government, Democrats’ main demand is that Congress take up an extension of subsidies for health plans offered under the Affordable Care Act. Trump has sounded open to a deal, saying that he wants “great health care” for Americans.

What’s received less attention is that Democrats also want new safeguards in the law limiting the White House’s ability to claw back, or rescind, funding already approved by Congress. While final appropriations bills are still being worked out, Republicans have been open to the idea.

“When you end the shutdown and get back to regular order within the appropriations bills, there’s very clear language about how we feel about rescissions,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, a Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee. “I think you’ll find hard, solid support from Republicans to see that what we agree to will be executed on.”

In the meantime, the main sticking point for lawmakers this week has been finding any agreement on extending the health care subsidies.

The consequences of an extended shutdown

As the shutdown drags on without sign of significant progress to ending the impasse, lawmakers are looking ahead to the dates when federal employees will miss a payday.

Active-duty military troops would miss a paycheck on Oct. 15. Some lawmakers are getting nervous about both the financial implications for the troops and the political blowback of allowing soldiers to go without pay.

As he argued with Democrats on Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson pointed out that House Republicans have already passed a stopgap bill that would “keep the government open to make sure TSA agents, Border Patrol agents, the troops and everybody else gets paid.”

There has been some discussion in Congress of passing partial government funding legislation to ensure that military members are paid, but so far Republicans have tried to keep the pressure on Democrats to vote for their bill.

Lawmakers seemed ready to dig in and try to push each other to the brink.

“I would not challenge Donald Trump’s resolve on this if I was anybody,” Cramer said.

By SUDHIN THANAWALA, Associated Press

President Donald Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops in Illinois faces legal scrutiny Thursday at a pivotal court hearing that will occur the day after a small number of Guard troops started protecting federal property in the Chicago area.

U.S. District Judge April Perry will hear arguments over a request to block the deployment of Illinois and Texas Guard members. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and local officials strongly oppose use of the Guard.

Military personnel in uniform, with the Texas National Guard patch on, are seen at the U.S. Army Reserve Center, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025, in Elwood, Ill., a suburb of Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

An “element” of the 200 Texas Guard troops sent to Illinois started working in the Chicago area on Wednesday, according to a spokesperson for the U.S. Northern Command, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in order to discuss operational details not been made public. The spokesperson did not say where specifically the troops were sent.

The troops, along with about 300 from Illinois, arrived this week at a U.S. Army Reserve Center in Elwood, southwest of Chicago. All 500 troops are under the Northern Command and have been activated for 60 days.

The Guard members are in the city to protect U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement buildings and other federal facilities and law enforcement personnel, according to Northern Command. Trump earlier sent troops to Los Angeles and Washington, and a small number this week started assisting law enforcement in Memphis.

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Pressure points ahead could bring a quicker end to the shutdown

Those troops are part of the Memphis Safe Task Force, a collection of about a dozen federal law enforcement agencies ordered by Trump to fight crime in the city. Tennessee Republican Gov. Bill Lee supports using the Guard.

The nearly 150-year-old Posse Comitatus Act limits the military’s role in enforcing domestic laws. However, Trump has said he would be willing to invoke the Insurrection Act, which allows a president to dispatch active duty military in states that are unable to put down an insurrection or are defying federal law.

Chicago and Illinois have filed a lawsuit to stop the deployments, calling them unnecessary and illegal. Trump, meanwhile, has portrayed Chicago as a lawless “hellhole” of crime, though statistics show a significant recent drop in crime.

The Republican president said Wednesday that Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Pritzker, both Democrats, should be jailed for failing to protect federal agents during immigration enforcement crackdowns.

In a court filing in the lawsuit, the city and state say protests at a temporary ICE detention facility in the Chicago suburb of Broadview have “never come close to stopping federal immigration enforcement.”

“The President is using the Broadview protests as a pretext,” they wrote. “The impending federal troop deployment in Illinois is the latest episode in a broader campaign by the President’s administration to target jurisdictions the President dislikes.”

Also Thursday, a panel of judges in the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals was scheduled to hear arguments over whether Trump had the authority to take control of 200 Oregon National Guard troops. The president had planned to deploy them in Portland, where there have been mostly small nightly protests outside an ICE building. State and city leaders insist troops are neither wanted nor needed there.

U.S. District Judge Karin J. Immergut on Sunday granted Oregon and California a temporary restraining order blocking the deployment of Guard troops to Portland. Trump had mobilized California troops for Portland just hours after Immergut first blocked him from using Oregon’s Guard.

The administration has yet to appeal that order to the 9th Circuit.

Immergut, who Trump appointed during his first term, rejected the president’s assertions that troops were needed to protect Portland and immigration facilities, saying “it had been months since there was any sustained level of violent or disruptive protest activity in the city.”

Associated Press writers Gene Johnson in Seattle and Konstantin Toropin in Washington contributed to this report.